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http://www.tastefullyoffensive.com/2012/11/w
hy-mtv-doesnt-play-music-videos-anymore.html
• Revenue from recorded music in the U.S.
amounted to $7 Billion in 2011, less than half
for the industry at its peak in 1999 (RIAA)
• Apple said this week that its iTunes store had
sold its 25 billionth song
• All this points to the leveling effect of digital
technology, social media, and everything else that
blew up the old industry
• In 2012, the compact disc continued its long
decline, with sales down 13% from last year, and
down 70% from 10 years before (SoundScan)
• iTunes offers 28m songs, Spotify 20m, MOG 16m
vs. Amoeba 250k records
• HD audio coming
THE INTERNET HAS PERMANENTLY CHANGED
USER BEHAVIOR AND CONSUMER
EXPECTATIONS:
• PERSONALIZATION
• INTERACTIVITY
• IMMEDIACY
• COMMUNITY
• FREE
• Nearly 2/3 of Teens use YouTube as their
primary music source according to Nielsen
• With 1 Billion views daily, it’s now the biggest
global audio/visual platform
• Universal Music Group #1 Ranked Most
Viewed Last 30 Days with 573,037,596 views
• Vevo #1 Network with 1.8B
(tied with Machinima)
AT FIRST, NOT PEGGED TO BIZ MODEL:
• NO CHARGE, FINANCIAL REWARD FOR CONTENT CREATION
• LACK OF BARRIERS TO PARTICIPATION
• DOMINANT RECORD DISTRIBUTION MADE IT HARD FOR
PEOPLE IN INDUSTRY TO THINK AUDIENCES WANTED TO
CONSUME CONTENT IN A DIFFERENT WAY
• A PLATFORM DOES NOT MAKE ANY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT
HOW PEOPLE ARE GOING TO USE IT
• YIELDED DISCOVERY OF NEW PATTERNS OF ATTENTION
AMONG AUDIENCE BEHAVIOR RATHER THAN BUSINESS
POLICY
ABILITY TO INTERACT WITH AUDIENCES KEY TO YT’S
SUCCESS:
• INITIAL MODEL TO BUILD AUDIENCES AROUND
NICHES WHETHER DUBSTEP OR MAKEUP
• THE AUDIENCE TURNS INTO USERS
• USERS TURNED INTO CREATORS
• THOUSANDS OF CHANNELS NOW ABLE TO FIND
THEIR AUDIENCE AND BUILD CONTENT
SPECIFICALLY FOR THAT AUDIENCE
• JAMAL EDWARDS SB.TV HAD 144M CHANNEL
VIEWS WITH £200K IN REVENUES 2012
• ALEX DAY 500K PAID DOWNLOADS
• LUKE HOOD UKF BASS CULTURE
250K ALBUMS SOLD
• WHO NEEDS A LABEL NOW?
• FREEMIUM MODEL WITH VOLUNTARY
TRANSACTIONS
• “PATRONET”
• http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090201/1
408273588.shtml
• As an alternative to downloads, streaming
music is gaining, served up in various styles by
services like Pandora and Spotify
• Even Myspace is back, having recently
relaunched with a clean interface and a
mandate to siphon music fans' loyalty from FB
• Share of total US radio listening now stands at 8.03%, an
increase of 5.55% with 1.39 billion listener hours
• Platform’s monthly music metrics for Jan 2013 show
listening hours increased 47% - up from 952 million during
the same period last year (Hypebot)
• 65.6 million active listeners at the end of January, an
increase of 38% from 47.6 million (YoY)
• Current strategic focus is to grow car listeners (only 1
million now)
• Sweden, home of Spotify, saw overall recorded music income rise from
just over SEK 829 million (£79.82m) in 2011 sales to over SEK 943 million
(£90.8m) in 2012
• Overall 2012 Swedish music sales increased 14% with 90% of all digital
income coming from streaming services
• Digital sales increased to 63% of total music sales, up by 12% compared to
last year
• 90% of these digital sales come from streamed music services (82% in
2011) while 10% are from other internet services (18% in 2011)
• Album sales account for 35% total music sales
• Sales of physical albums decreased by 15% in 2012
• Of the total music sales, 40 percent are Swedish performers and 60
percent are international performers
• Vinyl sales increased by 59% in 2012, but still represent just 1.4% of total
music sales
There is no music business model in the future?
Then what?
• Artists will expand selling direct to fans
• Pledgemusic.com Kickstarter model for music
• Brands will sponsor artists for distribution and
product placement
Now, the only money left for labels is the live
music performance and merch business:
• Will Live Nation is the WalMart of the
business?
• More than ½ of 2012’s top 10 highest-grossing
concert acts qualify for AARP membership
• Can touring industry find new sources of
revenue and survive Baby Boomer Bust?
• APPLE starts streaming iTunes
• Alternative radio becomes mainstream
• The per user model has replaced the per unit
• The only future proof asset:
The fan relationship
• SUBSCRIPTION
• MUSIC SEARCH ENGINES
• APPS (DISCOVERY, SHARING)
• SOCIAL RECOMMENDATION
• SELF DISTRIBUTION
• PIRACY
• GENERATIONAL SHIFT IN CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR & EXPECTATIONS

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Future of music 1

  • 1.
  • 9.
  • 10. 1961
  • 11. 1964
  • 12. 1965
  • 13. 1979
  • 14. 1981
  • 15. 1982
  • 16. 1985
  • 17. 1994
  • 18. 1994
  • 19. 1999
  • 20. 2001
  • 21. 2005
  • 22. 2008
  • 23. 2008
  • 24. 2011
  • 26. • Revenue from recorded music in the U.S. amounted to $7 Billion in 2011, less than half for the industry at its peak in 1999 (RIAA) • Apple said this week that its iTunes store had sold its 25 billionth song
  • 27. • All this points to the leveling effect of digital technology, social media, and everything else that blew up the old industry • In 2012, the compact disc continued its long decline, with sales down 13% from last year, and down 70% from 10 years before (SoundScan) • iTunes offers 28m songs, Spotify 20m, MOG 16m vs. Amoeba 250k records • HD audio coming
  • 28. THE INTERNET HAS PERMANENTLY CHANGED USER BEHAVIOR AND CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS: • PERSONALIZATION • INTERACTIVITY • IMMEDIACY • COMMUNITY • FREE
  • 29. • Nearly 2/3 of Teens use YouTube as their primary music source according to Nielsen • With 1 Billion views daily, it’s now the biggest global audio/visual platform • Universal Music Group #1 Ranked Most Viewed Last 30 Days with 573,037,596 views • Vevo #1 Network with 1.8B (tied with Machinima)
  • 30. AT FIRST, NOT PEGGED TO BIZ MODEL: • NO CHARGE, FINANCIAL REWARD FOR CONTENT CREATION • LACK OF BARRIERS TO PARTICIPATION • DOMINANT RECORD DISTRIBUTION MADE IT HARD FOR PEOPLE IN INDUSTRY TO THINK AUDIENCES WANTED TO CONSUME CONTENT IN A DIFFERENT WAY • A PLATFORM DOES NOT MAKE ANY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW PEOPLE ARE GOING TO USE IT • YIELDED DISCOVERY OF NEW PATTERNS OF ATTENTION AMONG AUDIENCE BEHAVIOR RATHER THAN BUSINESS POLICY
  • 31. ABILITY TO INTERACT WITH AUDIENCES KEY TO YT’S SUCCESS: • INITIAL MODEL TO BUILD AUDIENCES AROUND NICHES WHETHER DUBSTEP OR MAKEUP • THE AUDIENCE TURNS INTO USERS • USERS TURNED INTO CREATORS • THOUSANDS OF CHANNELS NOW ABLE TO FIND THEIR AUDIENCE AND BUILD CONTENT SPECIFICALLY FOR THAT AUDIENCE
  • 32. • JAMAL EDWARDS SB.TV HAD 144M CHANNEL VIEWS WITH £200K IN REVENUES 2012 • ALEX DAY 500K PAID DOWNLOADS • LUKE HOOD UKF BASS CULTURE 250K ALBUMS SOLD
  • 33. • WHO NEEDS A LABEL NOW? • FREEMIUM MODEL WITH VOLUNTARY TRANSACTIONS • “PATRONET” • http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090201/1 408273588.shtml
  • 34. • As an alternative to downloads, streaming music is gaining, served up in various styles by services like Pandora and Spotify • Even Myspace is back, having recently relaunched with a clean interface and a mandate to siphon music fans' loyalty from FB
  • 35. • Share of total US radio listening now stands at 8.03%, an increase of 5.55% with 1.39 billion listener hours • Platform’s monthly music metrics for Jan 2013 show listening hours increased 47% - up from 952 million during the same period last year (Hypebot) • 65.6 million active listeners at the end of January, an increase of 38% from 47.6 million (YoY) • Current strategic focus is to grow car listeners (only 1 million now)
  • 36. • Sweden, home of Spotify, saw overall recorded music income rise from just over SEK 829 million (£79.82m) in 2011 sales to over SEK 943 million (£90.8m) in 2012 • Overall 2012 Swedish music sales increased 14% with 90% of all digital income coming from streaming services • Digital sales increased to 63% of total music sales, up by 12% compared to last year • 90% of these digital sales come from streamed music services (82% in 2011) while 10% are from other internet services (18% in 2011) • Album sales account for 35% total music sales • Sales of physical albums decreased by 15% in 2012 • Of the total music sales, 40 percent are Swedish performers and 60 percent are international performers • Vinyl sales increased by 59% in 2012, but still represent just 1.4% of total music sales
  • 37. There is no music business model in the future? Then what? • Artists will expand selling direct to fans • Pledgemusic.com Kickstarter model for music • Brands will sponsor artists for distribution and product placement
  • 38. Now, the only money left for labels is the live music performance and merch business: • Will Live Nation is the WalMart of the business? • More than ½ of 2012’s top 10 highest-grossing concert acts qualify for AARP membership • Can touring industry find new sources of revenue and survive Baby Boomer Bust?
  • 39. • APPLE starts streaming iTunes • Alternative radio becomes mainstream • The per user model has replaced the per unit • The only future proof asset: The fan relationship
  • 40. • SUBSCRIPTION • MUSIC SEARCH ENGINES • APPS (DISCOVERY, SHARING) • SOCIAL RECOMMENDATION • SELF DISTRIBUTION • PIRACY • GENERATIONAL SHIFT IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR & EXPECTATIONS