Summary of the 52 key global insights to have come from the Future Agenda programme. 50 workshops in 25 different locations around the world engaged with some of the best minds to discuss the big issues for the next decade. Book and new website coming in November 2010
Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 23 09 15Future Agenda
After completing over 100 workshops in 40 cities over the past six months, we have started the synthesis of what are the key issues for the next decade. The aim is to have the new website ready by the end of the year so that everyone can access the insights from the Future Agenda programme.
This document provides a summary of what we think we have heard during 2015 from multiple expert voices around the world – on how it is changing, what is driving this change, where will be the impacts and why these may evolve over the next decade.
From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisations around the world. Across the multiple discussions this year, 86 emerging issues seem to be touching upon and connecting with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries. These are detailed in this presentation. We hope you find them of interest.
We have curated these 86 draft issues out of over 750 insights gained from 100+ discussions around the world. We may not have covered everything and may have included things we should not?
So we have four questions for you:
1. Which of these issues are the most important for you?
2. What is missing from this view that ought to be included?
3. Do the groups make sense and if not what should we change?
4. Are there images that don’t work for you and what would be better?
Let us know your views on feedback@futureagenda.org and we will make sure we include your recommendations as we move forward.
Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 07 12 15Future Agenda
What are the big shifts for the next decade? The future agenda programme is the world's largest open foresight project and during 2015 has connected with 5000 experts to look for answers. 120 workshops in 35 countries have explored 25 different topics. This is the draft summary of the synthesis of these discussions the full version of which will be shared in the new year on our new website www.futureagenda.org Covering everything from energy and cities to data and loyalty, many of these issues cut across multiple sectors and regions. Designed to share, inform and stimulate debate, the futureagenda platform provides the opportunity for all to see and build on what others see as important drivers of change for the decade @futureagenda
Making more intelligent bets Amsterdam 29 03 17Future Agenda
This is a presentation on how governments, companies and cities are using foresight and insight to place better future growth bets. Linking together recent research on radical innovation from www.innovationleaders.org and some of the key insights from the Future Agenda project, it aims to share views, stretch thinking and stimulate debate on areas of future focus and how best to deliver. It is being presented first on 29 March in Amsterdam
The Future of Business London - 10 06 16Future Agenda
The Future of Business is one of the main areas of focus for the synthesis of the insights from last year's Future Agenda programme. This presentation is the opening keynote of a full day event in London on 10 June where views on some of the big global shifts for the next decade are being shared alongside more specific business related issues. This will then stimulate further debate and insights for sharing. If you have any views on the points in the pdf, do let us know and we can edit / agenda and update as we go
Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 23 09 15Future Agenda
After completing over 100 workshops in 40 cities over the past six months, we have started the synthesis of what are the key issues for the next decade. The aim is to have the new website ready by the end of the year so that everyone can access the insights from the Future Agenda programme.
This document provides a summary of what we think we have heard during 2015 from multiple expert voices around the world – on how it is changing, what is driving this change, where will be the impacts and why these may evolve over the next decade.
From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisations around the world. Across the multiple discussions this year, 86 emerging issues seem to be touching upon and connecting with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries. These are detailed in this presentation. We hope you find them of interest.
We have curated these 86 draft issues out of over 750 insights gained from 100+ discussions around the world. We may not have covered everything and may have included things we should not?
So we have four questions for you:
1. Which of these issues are the most important for you?
2. What is missing from this view that ought to be included?
3. Do the groups make sense and if not what should we change?
4. Are there images that don’t work for you and what would be better?
Let us know your views on feedback@futureagenda.org and we will make sure we include your recommendations as we move forward.
Future agenda 2.0 The World in 2025 - Emerging View 07 12 15Future Agenda
What are the big shifts for the next decade? The future agenda programme is the world's largest open foresight project and during 2015 has connected with 5000 experts to look for answers. 120 workshops in 35 countries have explored 25 different topics. This is the draft summary of the synthesis of these discussions the full version of which will be shared in the new year on our new website www.futureagenda.org Covering everything from energy and cities to data and loyalty, many of these issues cut across multiple sectors and regions. Designed to share, inform and stimulate debate, the futureagenda platform provides the opportunity for all to see and build on what others see as important drivers of change for the decade @futureagenda
Making more intelligent bets Amsterdam 29 03 17Future Agenda
This is a presentation on how governments, companies and cities are using foresight and insight to place better future growth bets. Linking together recent research on radical innovation from www.innovationleaders.org and some of the key insights from the Future Agenda project, it aims to share views, stretch thinking and stimulate debate on areas of future focus and how best to deliver. It is being presented first on 29 March in Amsterdam
The Future of Business London - 10 06 16Future Agenda
The Future of Business is one of the main areas of focus for the synthesis of the insights from last year's Future Agenda programme. This presentation is the opening keynote of a full day event in London on 10 June where views on some of the big global shifts for the next decade are being shared alongside more specific business related issues. This will then stimulate further debate and insights for sharing. If you have any views on the points in the pdf, do let us know and we can edit / agenda and update as we go
Future Agenda - The world in 2025 - Opportunities for Lebanon - Beirut 03 06 15Future Agenda
This is the opening keynote for a conference on Rethinking the Lebanese Economy for 2025 taking place in Beirut on 3 June 2016. Drawing on global and regional insights from last year's workshops it provides views on three topics:
How the world will have changed by 2025
Questions that are being asked of the Middle East
Some potential opportunities for Lebanon.
We are not experts in the Middle East nor economic growth so have leaned on and built on the views of those we have met and connected with during the Future Agenda programme. We hope that we have represented your perspectives accurately.
The Future of Health - The Emerging View 14 01 16Future Agenda
A short talk given in London in January 2016 highlighting some of the key health and healthcare related insights from the Future Agenda workshops. Mixing views from around the world it looks at public health issues, the increasing role of digital, changes to the healthcare system, the ageing challenge, financing health and where global answers may emerge from.
The future of health the emerging view 14 01 16Tim Jones
A short talk given in London in January 2016 highlighting some of the key health and healthcare related insights from the Future Agenda workshops. Mixing views from around the world it looks at public health issues, the increasing role of digital, changes to the healthcare system, the ageing challenge, financing health and where global answers may emerge from.
This is a talk being given at the Royal College of Art in London on Monday 28th Nov. As part of the 'Intersections' lecture series it aims to highlight how bringing together different perspectives from around the world can help us see things differently and hopefully uncover new challenges and opportunities. For more details of the event see https://www.rca.ac.uk/news-and-events/events/intersections-lecture-series-dr-tim-jones-understanding-uncertainty-gaining-global-perspective/
The future of Health and Pharma An emerging view 03 05 16Future Agenda
Drawing from the 2015 Future Agenda expert discussions around the world, this is a view of emerging trends that will impact the future of health and the pharmaceutical sector over the next decade. Used as both a keynote and stimulus for workshops, this material is shared under Creative Commons Non Commercial license. For more information on the Future Agenda programme please see www.futureagenda.org
Future agenda, The World in 2025, Whitehorse Business Connect ConferenceFuture Agenda
Sharing insights on the world in 2025 from the Future Agenda programme, with the Whitehorse, CA Chamber of Commerce and invited guests at the annual Business Connect Conference
Future Agenda - The World in 2025 - EFMD - Rome 09 03 15Future Agenda
A keynote talk on the World in 2025 for EFMD in Rome and the 2015 EFMD MBA Conference. The event is themes 'Redesigning the MBA' and is aimed at MBA Directors and business school staff involved in part-time, full-time and executive MBA programmes. This talk draws on insights from both the first Future Agenda programme in 2010 and futureagenda2.0 now underway and shares some key shifts people see taking place in the world over the next decade.
Future Agenda: The World in 2025 - EFMD MBA Conference - Rome 09 03 15Tim Jones
A keynote talk on the World in 2025 for EFMD in Rome and the 2015 EFMD MBA Conference. The event is themes 'Redesigning the MBA' and is aimed at MBA Directors and business school staff involved in part-time, full-time and executive MBA programmes. This talk draws on insights from both the first Future Agenda programme in 2010 and futureagenda2.0 now underway and shares some key shifts people see taking place in the world over the next decade.
Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17Future Agenda
Over the past few months we have been running a number of workshops focused on helping organisations to identify and develop responses to emerging global and corporate risks. Working with companies, government agencies and advisory groups, we have been interrogating the insights from the Future Agenda programme to highlight those issues that provide the greatest potential challenge and also could have the most significant impact going forward. At a time when growing uncertainty and ambiguity are top of mind for many, we thought a brief summary of the most frequent topics being explored may be of wider interest.
In this summary we have therefore highlighted ten key global risks and ten key corporate risks that multiple organisations are seeing as high priority / impact for the next decade:
Ten Global Risks
• Accelerating displacement and the increase in migration
• Air pollution increasing in many urban environments
• A new world order driven by changing interests and relationships
• Broader cyber terrorism moving from the virtual to physical world
• Closing the inequality gap and balance equity and autonomy
• Flooded cities as the most visible impact of climate change
• Global pandemics stressing public health systems
• Key resource constraints driven by economic and political tensions
• Rising youth unemployment creating a lost generation
• Spiraling debt as a precursor to another major financial crisis
Ten Corporate Risks
• Continuous proof of loyalty to consumers required from brands
• Declining government influence as cities, networks and multinationals lead
• Full cost and having to account and pay for the true impact of activities
• Interconnected systems and the IoT increasing business vulnerability
• Managing data risk driving the need for greater security
• Regulation changing rapidly in its reach, its character and its focus
• Speed to scale accelerating and proving more disruptive impact
• Truth and illusion shifting view of what is credible and why
• The human touch being increasingly important in a digital world
• The rise of machines as AI and automation are both threat and opportunity
While not the same top issues for every organisation, these hopefully help to provide useful insight and context. More detailed information on many of these is available on the future agenda website www.futureagenda.org
As part of the future agenda programme we are running several events with students around the world. This first one in the UK brought togetehr LSE and RCA students to explore 4 topics - data, cities, food and health. These are some of there thoughts on what is missing from the current views.
Half way through the World in 2030 here are ten innovation challenges for the next decade. A talk at ISPIM 2020 on 8 June will share more details and seed further dialogue on these and other issues on the horizon as the world deals with both pandemics, climate change and pervasive data.
For more information on the ISPIM event see https://www.ispim-virtual.com
For more foresights from Future Agenda research since 2010 see www.futureagenda.org
Healthcare as an industry is transforming. The concept of wellbeing is increasing in importance. Living environments are evolving, including smart homes, assisted living and robotics. Technologies and innovations are having major impacts to individual’s life. Individuals are taking more control and recognizing also their responsibility.
Business Finland and Future Watch commissioned a study on the landscape of developments that will impact the delivery of Health & Wellbeing, to better understand the anticipated transformations, impacts and opportunities to support its strategy for ensuring Finland is well positioned to take advantage of such trends and to help drive better decision making for all stakeholders in Finland. Results of the study are published and discussed with stakeholders and companies in Business Finland’s Smart Life Finland program webinars.
Coming up to ten years on from the 2007 Technology Futures programme we conducted for Shell, several people have been asking how well the expert perspectives have played out. This is the summary of two sets of weeklong discussions that took place in Bangalore and London, each of which included around 20 experts from across multiple disciplines all looking out 20 years at how technology may, or may not influence society. This was the second run of the Technology Futures programme after the initial project in 2004 where similar discussions had taken place in Amsterdam and Houston.
At a time when oil accounted for over a third of the world’s energy supply and renewables for less than a tenth of that amount, core areas of future focus were on the potential rise of biofuels, nuclear, solar, wind and wave as well as the challenges in enabling a more electric world. Specific issues raised included the opportunities from second and third generation biofuels and the role of synthetic organisms in the mix; pebble bed nuclear reactors and the potential for fusion; concentrated solar power, the increasing efficiency of photovoltaics and associated cost reductions; energy storage, battery power and superconductivity; hydrogen and microbial fuel cells; the impact of maglev trains, autonomous vehicles as well as data mining and quantum computing. Nearly ten years on the summaries of each of these, the likely development paths and the associated constraints and enabling factors are a recommended read.
Personally, however, it is the later chapters that are most insightful, especially in the context of today’s challenges. Whereas many of the energy related technology shifts have played out, largely in line with some of the expert expectations, it is some of cross-cutting views from 2007 that still seem to be at the fore of our to-do list: How to better collaborate globally and locally, especially across multi-sector partnerships; how to manage distributed activities better than centralised ones; how to better share value from intellectual property; and how best to harness artificial intelligence are all questions as relevant today as they were when we first held the discussions.
While we spend more of our time continuing to look forward, seeking new opportunities and challenges to address, if you have a spare hour or so, I would recommend a flick through the summary report which is available for download here.
Shell Technology Futures 2004 - This is the summary of two sets of weeklong discussions that took place in Amsterdam and Houston, each of which included around 20 experts from across multiple disciplines all looking out 20 years at how technology may, or may not influence society. This was the first run of the Technology Futures programme and was followed in 2007 by similar discussions in Bangalore and London.
This first 2004 programme took a very wide view and covered everything from mesh networks, natural language processing and nano-technology to adaptive systems, automated sensing, tissue scaffolding and 3D printing.
Future Agenda - The world in 2025 - Opportunities for Lebanon - Beirut 03 06 15Future Agenda
This is the opening keynote for a conference on Rethinking the Lebanese Economy for 2025 taking place in Beirut on 3 June 2016. Drawing on global and regional insights from last year's workshops it provides views on three topics:
How the world will have changed by 2025
Questions that are being asked of the Middle East
Some potential opportunities for Lebanon.
We are not experts in the Middle East nor economic growth so have leaned on and built on the views of those we have met and connected with during the Future Agenda programme. We hope that we have represented your perspectives accurately.
The Future of Health - The Emerging View 14 01 16Future Agenda
A short talk given in London in January 2016 highlighting some of the key health and healthcare related insights from the Future Agenda workshops. Mixing views from around the world it looks at public health issues, the increasing role of digital, changes to the healthcare system, the ageing challenge, financing health and where global answers may emerge from.
The future of health the emerging view 14 01 16Tim Jones
A short talk given in London in January 2016 highlighting some of the key health and healthcare related insights from the Future Agenda workshops. Mixing views from around the world it looks at public health issues, the increasing role of digital, changes to the healthcare system, the ageing challenge, financing health and where global answers may emerge from.
This is a talk being given at the Royal College of Art in London on Monday 28th Nov. As part of the 'Intersections' lecture series it aims to highlight how bringing together different perspectives from around the world can help us see things differently and hopefully uncover new challenges and opportunities. For more details of the event see https://www.rca.ac.uk/news-and-events/events/intersections-lecture-series-dr-tim-jones-understanding-uncertainty-gaining-global-perspective/
The future of Health and Pharma An emerging view 03 05 16Future Agenda
Drawing from the 2015 Future Agenda expert discussions around the world, this is a view of emerging trends that will impact the future of health and the pharmaceutical sector over the next decade. Used as both a keynote and stimulus for workshops, this material is shared under Creative Commons Non Commercial license. For more information on the Future Agenda programme please see www.futureagenda.org
Future agenda, The World in 2025, Whitehorse Business Connect ConferenceFuture Agenda
Sharing insights on the world in 2025 from the Future Agenda programme, with the Whitehorse, CA Chamber of Commerce and invited guests at the annual Business Connect Conference
Future Agenda - The World in 2025 - EFMD - Rome 09 03 15Future Agenda
A keynote talk on the World in 2025 for EFMD in Rome and the 2015 EFMD MBA Conference. The event is themes 'Redesigning the MBA' and is aimed at MBA Directors and business school staff involved in part-time, full-time and executive MBA programmes. This talk draws on insights from both the first Future Agenda programme in 2010 and futureagenda2.0 now underway and shares some key shifts people see taking place in the world over the next decade.
Future Agenda: The World in 2025 - EFMD MBA Conference - Rome 09 03 15Tim Jones
A keynote talk on the World in 2025 for EFMD in Rome and the 2015 EFMD MBA Conference. The event is themes 'Redesigning the MBA' and is aimed at MBA Directors and business school staff involved in part-time, full-time and executive MBA programmes. This talk draws on insights from both the first Future Agenda programme in 2010 and futureagenda2.0 now underway and shares some key shifts people see taking place in the world over the next decade.
Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17Future Agenda
Over the past few months we have been running a number of workshops focused on helping organisations to identify and develop responses to emerging global and corporate risks. Working with companies, government agencies and advisory groups, we have been interrogating the insights from the Future Agenda programme to highlight those issues that provide the greatest potential challenge and also could have the most significant impact going forward. At a time when growing uncertainty and ambiguity are top of mind for many, we thought a brief summary of the most frequent topics being explored may be of wider interest.
In this summary we have therefore highlighted ten key global risks and ten key corporate risks that multiple organisations are seeing as high priority / impact for the next decade:
Ten Global Risks
• Accelerating displacement and the increase in migration
• Air pollution increasing in many urban environments
• A new world order driven by changing interests and relationships
• Broader cyber terrorism moving from the virtual to physical world
• Closing the inequality gap and balance equity and autonomy
• Flooded cities as the most visible impact of climate change
• Global pandemics stressing public health systems
• Key resource constraints driven by economic and political tensions
• Rising youth unemployment creating a lost generation
• Spiraling debt as a precursor to another major financial crisis
Ten Corporate Risks
• Continuous proof of loyalty to consumers required from brands
• Declining government influence as cities, networks and multinationals lead
• Full cost and having to account and pay for the true impact of activities
• Interconnected systems and the IoT increasing business vulnerability
• Managing data risk driving the need for greater security
• Regulation changing rapidly in its reach, its character and its focus
• Speed to scale accelerating and proving more disruptive impact
• Truth and illusion shifting view of what is credible and why
• The human touch being increasingly important in a digital world
• The rise of machines as AI and automation are both threat and opportunity
While not the same top issues for every organisation, these hopefully help to provide useful insight and context. More detailed information on many of these is available on the future agenda website www.futureagenda.org
As part of the future agenda programme we are running several events with students around the world. This first one in the UK brought togetehr LSE and RCA students to explore 4 topics - data, cities, food and health. These are some of there thoughts on what is missing from the current views.
Half way through the World in 2030 here are ten innovation challenges for the next decade. A talk at ISPIM 2020 on 8 June will share more details and seed further dialogue on these and other issues on the horizon as the world deals with both pandemics, climate change and pervasive data.
For more information on the ISPIM event see https://www.ispim-virtual.com
For more foresights from Future Agenda research since 2010 see www.futureagenda.org
Healthcare as an industry is transforming. The concept of wellbeing is increasing in importance. Living environments are evolving, including smart homes, assisted living and robotics. Technologies and innovations are having major impacts to individual’s life. Individuals are taking more control and recognizing also their responsibility.
Business Finland and Future Watch commissioned a study on the landscape of developments that will impact the delivery of Health & Wellbeing, to better understand the anticipated transformations, impacts and opportunities to support its strategy for ensuring Finland is well positioned to take advantage of such trends and to help drive better decision making for all stakeholders in Finland. Results of the study are published and discussed with stakeholders and companies in Business Finland’s Smart Life Finland program webinars.
Coming up to ten years on from the 2007 Technology Futures programme we conducted for Shell, several people have been asking how well the expert perspectives have played out. This is the summary of two sets of weeklong discussions that took place in Bangalore and London, each of which included around 20 experts from across multiple disciplines all looking out 20 years at how technology may, or may not influence society. This was the second run of the Technology Futures programme after the initial project in 2004 where similar discussions had taken place in Amsterdam and Houston.
At a time when oil accounted for over a third of the world’s energy supply and renewables for less than a tenth of that amount, core areas of future focus were on the potential rise of biofuels, nuclear, solar, wind and wave as well as the challenges in enabling a more electric world. Specific issues raised included the opportunities from second and third generation biofuels and the role of synthetic organisms in the mix; pebble bed nuclear reactors and the potential for fusion; concentrated solar power, the increasing efficiency of photovoltaics and associated cost reductions; energy storage, battery power and superconductivity; hydrogen and microbial fuel cells; the impact of maglev trains, autonomous vehicles as well as data mining and quantum computing. Nearly ten years on the summaries of each of these, the likely development paths and the associated constraints and enabling factors are a recommended read.
Personally, however, it is the later chapters that are most insightful, especially in the context of today’s challenges. Whereas many of the energy related technology shifts have played out, largely in line with some of the expert expectations, it is some of cross-cutting views from 2007 that still seem to be at the fore of our to-do list: How to better collaborate globally and locally, especially across multi-sector partnerships; how to manage distributed activities better than centralised ones; how to better share value from intellectual property; and how best to harness artificial intelligence are all questions as relevant today as they were when we first held the discussions.
While we spend more of our time continuing to look forward, seeking new opportunities and challenges to address, if you have a spare hour or so, I would recommend a flick through the summary report which is available for download here.
Shell Technology Futures 2004 - This is the summary of two sets of weeklong discussions that took place in Amsterdam and Houston, each of which included around 20 experts from across multiple disciplines all looking out 20 years at how technology may, or may not influence society. This was the first run of the Technology Futures programme and was followed in 2007 by similar discussions in Bangalore and London.
This first 2004 programme took a very wide view and covered everything from mesh networks, natural language processing and nano-technology to adaptive systems, automated sensing, tissue scaffolding and 3D printing.
Innovation in pharma - Challenges and Opportunities - 3 May 2016Tim Jones
A talk in Copenhagen sharing the latest innovation leaders analysis on the pharmaceutical sector and highlighting opportunities and challenges in pharma from an innovation perspective. This builds on previous research and analysis and aims to share insights from within the sector and link to examples from other industries where similar issues have been progressed.
What are the big issues for next decade? The World in 2025 is the full synthesis of insights from the second Future Agenda programme undertaken in 2016. From 120 discussions with thousands of informed people in 45 cities across 35 countries, we gained over 800 insights on the next decade. From these we identified and detailed over 60 key areas of change - those are all shared feely on the future agenda website (www.futureagenda.org).
This document brings all of these insights together in a single pdf for you to use. It is a free book shared under the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 licence. We hope that you find it a useful view of how people around the world see change occurring over the next decade.
Smart cities | Smarter citizens Vienna - 25 Nov 2014 lrTim Jones
A keynote at the Zero Emission Cities Conference in Vienna focused on shifts in focus of smart cities. Key contrast is made between what is being embedded in city infrastructures to make them more intelligent and efficient vs. how people in cities can use, share and interpret data to make more intelligent decisions.
Talk is split into three parts:
What we say about the future of cities from the first Future Agenda programme in 2010
An overview of some of the key developments and collaborations that have taken place since
Some key questions that we see are being asked about citizen engagement that we will explore in the second future agenda programme in 2015
Innovation Today and Tomorrow 21 May 2014Tim Jones
A keynote speech for a technology focused audience exploring lessons from today and some thoughts for tomorrow. With a red thread of the changing nature and role of intellectual property weaved throughout, this draws on examples from both the Innovation Leaders and Future Agenda programmes
Hotel 2030 is a cross-sector platform that acts as a catalyst for open discussion on the possible changes facing the hospitality industry and associated innovations for hotels over the next 15 to 20 years.
As we explore potential changes, we see some trends having increasing impact. Based on discussion and feedback from hospitality companies, tourism experts and government bodies around the world, this summary shares insights on shifts by 2020.
The ten most significant trends that are seen as potentially impacting hotels in 2020 are:
African Travellers
500m new middle class in Africa require accessible hotel accommodation for both work and leisure across the continent
Co-Branded Experiences
Hotels partner with established consumer brands to deliver leading-edge, repeatable co-branded experiences
Dynamic Pricing
Transparent real-time pricing reflects personal ability to pay and enhances yield optimization across the service sector
Faith Compliance
More organizations flex their processes and proactively switch to become compliant with cultural norms and experiences
Female Centricity
New experiences are designed, and established ones reinvented, with the influential female population’s needs at the core
Final Frontiers
Increasing interest and participation in remote journeys drive more of us to seek to access the inaccessible
New Forms of Ownership
Shared co-operatives, partnerships and membership funding business models replace franchising and direct ownership
Smart Buildings
Increasingly intelligent, self-monitoring buildings set new standards as big data is shared between operations and providers
Upstream Insight
Companies and networks have, and act on, very early insight on future intent to travel and customise services to suit
Waste Reuse
Seeing waste as a resource and encouraging its reuse within the footprint shifts many towards the circular economy
Connected success The Future of the Socially Valued Organisation - Full ver...Tim Jones
This document details the findings from a foresight programme that identified the nature of future social needs and considered how organisations could address these.
It is a longer version of the summary deck available on http://www.slideshare.net/timjones72/connected-success-the-future-of-the-socially-valued-organisation-21-03-14 and is designed to be printed as an A5 booklet.
This document details the findings from a foresight programme that identified the nature of future social needs and considered how organisations could address these.
Undertaken via a combination of desk research, one-on-one interviews, discussion forums and major workshops held on three continents, this programme explored multiple perspectives with experts and informed people from over 100 different organisations.
The insights were gained as part of a wider project for Barclays Bank plc. which has been building on its current Citizenship platform and looking ahead to shifts and options for change to prepare for the world in 2020.
This summary is being shared directly with those who participated in the discussions as a record of the dialogue. In addition, it is also being made available to interested parties for continued discussion and feedback.
The approach taken for this project was based on that adopted for the global Future Agenda programme – the world’s largest open foresight project to date.
• Starting with informed perspectives gleaned from research and initial interviews, a range of assumptions and hypotheses were developed and discussed within the core team.
• A series of group discussions were then used to test thinking and gain new perspectives from experts across a number of areas – from academics, philosophers and ethnographers and leaders of social enterprises to economists and businesses.
• Revised perspectives were then taken into three major workshops in Johannesburg, London and New York where a wider group of informed people from multiple organisations challenged and built upon each others’ views to provide a richer, deeper view of the future of the socially valued organisation.
This document is a synthesis of what we heard and learned from these discussions.
Connected Success - The Future of the Socially Valued Organisation - 21 03 14Tim Jones
This document summarises the findings from a major foresight programme that identified the nature of future social needs and considered how organisations are expected to address these.
Undertaken via a combination of research, one-on-one interviews, discussion forums and major workshops held on three continents, this programme has explored multiple perspectives with experts and informed people from over 100 different organisations.
The insights were gained as part of a wider project for Barclays Bank plc. that has been building on its current Citizenship platform and looking ahead to shifts and options for change in the world in 2020.
This summary is being shared directly with all participants in the discussions as a record of the dialogue and its conclusions. In addition, it is also been made more widely available for continued discussion and feedback.
Socially Valued Organisations - An Updated View 18 02 14Tim Jones
This is an updated initial view of what may be some of the characteristics of socially valued organisations in the future. These have come from research and a series of discussions with different groups over the past few months and are now being used as the starting point for wider engagement. Workshops around the world and direct feedback (please feel free to provide) are helping to enrich these views. This update includes output from events in South Africa and the UK. There will be another revision and re-sharing in March 2014 after final workshops have been completed.
So, if you think that there is something missing, please let us know.
Equally if you disagree with something that is already in the mix please tell us why.
As with all future agenda projects, the views provided are from expert discussions that have taken place but on the understanding of non attribution and so do feel free to use and react to these insights in this context.
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to get in touch.
Future of Innovation and Intellectual Property 28 Nov 2013Tim Jones
A talk at the launch of a new book on Intellectual Property Valuation and Innovation. Second chapter sourced from Future Agenda discussions and perspectives looks at severn potential changes for the innovation and intellectual property landscape over the next decade. Launch taking place on 28 Nov 2013 at Kingston Smith LLP London
The future of the auto service experienceTim Jones
This is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of car servicing being driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond. Having gained some feedback and opinion from around the world on which of these shifts will have greatest impact, which will happen first and what is missing from this view we have added in some potential future scenarios for how the future shifts could change customer experiences and business models for dealers and workshops. Further comments on these thoughts are welcome and will be shared in a few weeks time
As with all futureagenda projects, the outputs will be openly shared for all to use as sources of insight and stimulus for innovation, strategy challenge and wider engagement.
Emerging shifts for the media industry 13 09 13 - changes from within the se...Tim Jones
This presentation is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of media driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond - it is based on multiple people's perspectives and we welcome other views to add / edit for v2 if you have them
Next Generation Service Innovation Workshop - Singapore - 23 August 2013Tim Jones
As services continue to contribute more to the global economy and new propositions emerge daily, innovation in services is under greater focus. This is the material for a one day exec workshop looking at next generation service innovation covering the context, a number of leading case studies and also approaches for rethinking the service innovation experience to enhance value and customer impact. Drawn from a combination of the ongoing Growth Champions and Innovation Leaders analysis, it first looks at the core enablers of change for service innovation today - namely co-creation, web 2.0, new business models and new value shifts. Next it looks at nine established service innovation successes that have been changing perceptions in recent years - Inditex (Zara) fast fashion, Rolls-Royce TotalCare, Nike ID, Amazon, Virgin Atlantic, Airtel, Starwood Hotels, Google and Live Nation.
Then it moves on to explore eight emerging / accelerating service innovation experiences that are having impact: Zipcar, Naranaya Hrundayalaya, M-pesa, AA Drivesafe, Citizinvestor, Zopa, Motif Investing and Qcue.
The afternoon section looks at how companies can use these case studies to understand which elements of next generation service innovation could have impact on their sector and relevance for their business and then provides an overview of four approaches to help think of new service innovation models - Parallel Views, Value Innovation, Lean Thinking and Destroy your own business.
Designed to give companies an immersive experience the workshop uses this material in a number of different presentation formats including cards and other interactive elements. The Singapore event is the first of several to share this material and has been developed in collaboration with Training Vision and the WDA of the Singapore government.
Adaptation to Climate Change An Initial View lr - Aug 2013Tim Jones
This presentation summarises a research project undertaken in Q2 of 2013 looking at how different organisations are planning for adaptation to climate change. Based on discussions with leaders from over 20 companies around the world and supported by additional analysis, it looks at a number of issues in and around adaptation.
Key areas covered are:
Foresight and Future Agenda
The Context For Adaptation
Adaptation Policy and Plans
Business Risk
Variations by Geography
Impact of Cities
Levels of Adaptation Activity
Implications and Trade Offs
This is designed as an initial view of where thinking is currently at, what are some of the key shifts taking place and what are some of the major challenges. It is not meant to be the answer but more to layout the challenge and identify some of the key questions and trade offs we need to consider both globally and locally as we learn to live with effects of global warming and a 4C warmer world.
Further discussions on and around this topic will take place later this year as part of our ongoing refresh of emerging views in and around the impacts and implications of climate change.
The Future Agenda programme is the world’s first global open foresight initiative. Supported in 2010 by Vodafone Group, this is a major cross-discipline project that united some of the best minds from around the globe to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it mapped out the major issues, identified and discussed potential solutions, suggested the best ways forward and provided a unique open platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. The first programme involved over 2500 experts in 50 workshops around the world and engaged on-line with another 20,000 people in 147 different countries. Many companies, governments and other organsiations around the world are using insights from the Future Agenda to identify major growth platforms for the future. A second programme looking at the world in 2025 is scheduled for 2015.
Since the first programme, we have been undertaking a number of deep dives into specific areas of interest to companies. These have ranges from the emerging role of women in India, the increasing influence of cities and the future of work through to specific implications of emerging changes on sectors including banking, FMCG, transportation and healthcare. The Adaptation to Climate Change is the latest of these deep dives.
Hotel 2030 Emerging Trends - Initial Perspectives May 2013Tim Jones
Hotel 2030 is a cross-sector platform that aims to act as a catalyst for open discussion on the possible changes facing the hospitality industry and the associated innovation opportunities for hotels over the next 15 to 20 years. Starting with initial perspectives drawn from a number of studies already undertaken by varied companies and academics, as with the futureagenda programme, the intent is that interested organizations around the world will use this material to challenge assumptions, identify gaps, add their own views and collectively co-create a richer, deeper dialogue of possible futures in the hospitality sector.
AMPlify - Emerging shifts and the transformation of money and wealth - June ...Tim Jones
A talk being given at the AMPlify festival in Sydney looking at some possible implications of external trends on financial products. Drawing on combination of future agenda material and additional discussions within and around the financial sector, the focus is on the key emerging shifts across sectors and their potential implications for financial products. After a decade of largely digitising existing processes, right now a host of start ups and large company innovations are looking to use digital to change the experience. Three big external shifts driving change are the redefinition of wealth away from traditional investments, new ageing lifestyles and their different need states and increasing customer / consumer led control and influence. The five associated implications for financial products covered in the talk are: pervasive mobile as the default platform for all; the shift from owning to renting products and the associated financial changes that underpin the end of loans and less need for saving;
Emerging shifts and impacts on hospitality - 10 may 2013Tim Jones
A talk given to several across the hotel industry on some shifts taking place outside the hospitality sector that could have significant impact in years to come. In particular looks at the challenge of creating more flexible, urban spaces; accommodating 4C of climate change; supporting more rental in every day life; creating apparent personalisation; using others data to see needs early; and proactively taking a lead role in alternative currencies. Ends with some key challenges for the branded hotel sector going forward.
An innovation leaders fund modeling the link to growth - feb 2013
Future Agenda Key Global Insights
1.
2. Imbalanced Population Growth Certainties
By 2020 we will add another 700m people to the planet,
By 2020 we will add another 700m people to the planet,
most in places least able to accommodate them
3. Key Resource Constraints Certainties
We will see economic, physical and political shortages of key
We will see economic, physical and political shortages of key
materials that will result in major changes in perspectives
4. Ubiquitous Data Access Certainties
We will be connected everywhere everything that can
We will be connected everywhere ‐ everything that can
benefit from a network connection will have one
5. Asian Wealth Shift Certainties
The centre of gravity of global wealth
The centre of gravity of global wealth
shifts East with decreased influence for the US and Europe
8. Automated People Care Health
Robotic assisted care and remote monitoring provide
economically viable support for the sick and elderly so
that people can stay home for longer
9. Clinical Enhancement Health
Enhanced functionality will shift from an external
add‐on to an integrated capability to provide
the option for super‐human performance
10. Diabesity Health
With diabetes consuming 5% of GDP a combination of
fat taxation, patient data mining and personal budgets
will play a role in stabilising the obesity epidemic
11. Global Pandemics Health
We are likely to see 2 to 3 major pandemics start in
regions with limited public healthcare and rapidly
spread globally and so demand fast response
12. Halting Alzheimer's Health
Stopping mental degradation from Alzheimer’s makes
quality ageing more possible by improving
cognition and slowing the rate of decline
13. Mass Medical Tourism Health
Medical tourism goes main‐stream as low‐cost cardiac
surgery and broader healthcare provision join
dentistry and cosmetic surgery to have global impact
14. Pharma Foods Health
More customised foods, blur the line between
pharmaceuticals and food as neutragenomics
allow individualised diets to fit genetic profiles
15. Systemic Euthanasia Health
The escalating economic and social cost of supporting
the aged beyond natural lifecycles leads
to wider acceptance of assisted suicide
18. Differentiated Commoditised Knowledge Wealth
As information is shared globally and insight is commoditized,
the best returns go to those who can produce
non‐standard, differentiated knowledge
19. Dynamic Pricing Wealth
Pervasive smart meters and ubiquitous tracking services
create platforms for the dynamic pricing of
resources, access and travel to manage demand
20. Lease everything Wealth
Rising sustainability imperatives and increasing
cost of ownership shift the balance from
ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
21. Less Energy Wealth
Consumers are incentivised to use significantly
less energy as escalating growth in carbon emissions
force utilities to change their business models
22. Local Currency Wealth
The revitalisation of bartering, decreased trust in
banks and increasing tax avoidance broadens
the adoption of alternative stores of value for trade
23. Mobile Money Wealth
Proven systems built on mobile connectivity and
increasingly flexible means of exchange provide a
tipping point in the shift towards the cashless society
24. Richer Poorer Wealth
Widening differences in wealth between and within
urban and rural communities extends the gap between
rich and poor ‐ but they still need each other
25. Third Global Currency Wealth
The economic rise of Asia and the need for an alternative
to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency produces
a parallel broad‐basket Asian Currency Unit
28. Active Elderly Happiness
A wealthier, healthier older generation increasingly
lead more active lives including 3rd generation careers
d
and becoming more politically involved
29. Choosing God Happiness
The increasing fragmentation of society and looser
connection between religion and the state sees
more of us turning to God to help define who we are
30. Cocktail Identities Happiness
The differentiation between real and virtual disappears
and who you are ceases to use a singular identity
as we manage multiple identity portfolios
31. Enjoying the Ordinary Happiness
Growing satisfaction in the basics of life focuses
more on making the most of the day‐to‐day
and increasingly valuing the ordinary
32. Less Variety Happiness
The future is one of reduced choice but not less interest
as retailers provide an increasingly edited portfolio
of products through ever more efficient channels
33. Live Experiences Happiness
The role of live activities in an increasingly virtual,
isolated world becomes more important to
create moments for deeper, richer connections
34. Seamless Media Consumption Happiness
Multiple media sources are instantly integrated at
the point of consumption to provide continual, enhanced
and immersive access to tailored, bite‐sized content
35. Switching Off Happiness
Being disconnected in an always connected world leads
to virtual cocoons at home and real physical
solitude becomes an option only for the rich
38. Asian Aviation Mobility
Led by more tourists and steady growth in cargo
transportation, Asian aviation places more orders
and becomes the largest air market in the world
39. Chinese Trains Mobility
China, the pacesetter for change in inter‐urban
transport, is investing over $1 trillion expanding its
$
rail network to 120,000km by 2020
40. Clean Shipping Mobility
Under increasing pressure to improve efficiency
freight shipping adopts a range of alternative
policies and power systems
41. Electric Mobility Mobility
With France and Germany taking the initial lead roles,
electric cars take off and form up to 10% of the
world’s vehicle fleet by 2020
42. Intelligent Highways Mobility
Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connections
deliver automated highways to improve safety,
increase capacity and reduce congestion
43. Muslim Europe Mobility
With increasing economic migration the total
Muslim population of Europe is similar in size to that
of Germany and a rising cultural / political influence
44. People Tracking Mobility
The acceptance of being tracked by your mobile is
accelerated by ticket‐less transport systems, increased
surveillance and successful location‐based services
45. Urban (Im)mobility Mobility
Informed choices, growth, congestion and regulation
impact the world’s cities to drive a shift to
more sustainable efficient transport options
48. Alternative Proteins Security
The shift in global diet from rice to meat brings
new sources of protein like lab‐grown manufactured
meats and high protein vegetable combinations
49. Bio‐Surveillance Security
Active gathering and interpretation of data related
to threats to human and animal health delivers
aster early warning and situational awareness
50. Credible Sources Security
Greater information overload moves our focus
from simply accessing data to include the source
of the insight to distinguish what we trust
51. Corporate LEGO Security
With more free agents and outsourcing, non‐core
functions within organisations are interchangeable
and easily rebuilt around value‐creating units
52. Drone Wars Security
Intelligent UAVs choose their victims themselves
as the race for more focused military influence leads
to the proliferation of assassination tools
53. Solar Sunrise Security
Increasing governmental focus on energy security
and climate change drives the uptake of large‐scale
solar as the leading renewable supply
54. Water Management Security
Advanced water purification, irrigation and desalination
technologies are used to help communities to
manage the rising supply / demand imbalance
55. Virtual Authenticity Security
Trusting our digital credentials allows us to participate
confidently in open global transactions to gain access
to what we want when we want it
58. Almost Zero Waste Locality
Escalating waste production and new attitudes,
approaches, regulation and business models lead
many to aim for an almost zero waste society
59. Bridging The Last Mile Locality
The need to make public transport as flexible as private
focuses attention on the last mile between multi‐modal
hubs and the home / work destination
60. Community Living Locality
In rural and urban environments, the community is a
prized goal for the middle aged, middle classes as
they seek to reconnect with “people like us”
61. Dense Cities Locality
As urban migration increases, efficient, densely
populated cities, not distributed options, are the
blueprints for more sustainable places to live
62. Local Foods Locality
Increased transparency on food availability and security,
land use and eco‐literacy accelerate mass consumption
of locally grown and processed foods
63. Intelligent buildings Locality
Smarter, better connected, self‐monitoring homes
and offices provide safer, more secure, low energy
buildings able to self‐manage utilities
64. Mega City States Locality
Increasing competition between cities over‐rides national
priorities as mayors lead bold initiatives to place their
cities at the forefront of the global stage
65. Migration Magnets Locality
Immigration is part of economic development strategies
and, especially in low fertility economies,
nations position themselves to attract migrants