Trends 2008

Trends 2008

Mixture of trends, fads, themes and implications

Contact: james.myers@ogilvy.com

Why bother?
 It‟s fascinating
 So it is a bit of a personal list
 Provides a context to everything we do
 … big ideas and ideals
 Unfortunately it is a Forth Bridge job
 We have 40 or so, 100 would not be a problem.
 Lots of sources – too many
 This is not original
 Contagious, „60 trends in 60 minutes, www.trendwatching.com,
McKinsey and so on

Last updated 10 Oct 08

A trends structure
 Economic
 Social
 Consumer
 Business
 Marketing environment
 Technology
 Working environment


Four trend drivers

 More information for everyone
 Technological innovation
 Connectivity – it‟s the internet
 Environmental concern


When you see a trend
 Stress-test it
 It a trend, super trend or just something transient?
 Would you like to know more about this trend?
 Challenge it with a counter trend?
 What are the implications of this trend?
 Introduce your own trend


Economic

Is stagflation back?
Or downturn or recession or depression! Please tick most applicable.

Inflation (fuel, food, petrol, intermediate goods)

Economic Growth
Unemployment
 What could this result in?
 How will consumers change their behaviour and thinking? Scrambling to save
money, more on line calculators, less luxuries purchased, replacement of the
TV put on hold? We need a 42” flat screen TV – yeah right.


Economic

Increasing global co-operation
 We live in an economically connected world … China
relies on the US to buy its products with the mineral
resources it imports from Russia, S America and the
African continent.
 Less than 20 countries are as wealthy as the top 100
Multi-National Corporations

So what could this result in?
 Multi-national companies controlling national economies and agenda‟s. They
already influence tax regimes. Pollution knows no border so climate change
could be the catalyst. And economic policy ineffectiveness – e.g. interest rate
changes don‟t make a dent on inflation if you import half your raw inputs


Economic

The interfering state
Low pension contribution. Middle Income binge drinkers.
Housing shortage. Child obesity. Financial Institutions
And it is going to get worse
because interference is now
officially OK. A price worth
paying if they bail out banks,
pension and savings.

 So what could this result in?
 More stealth like consumption taxes – petrol, prescriptions, alcohol, smoking,
congestion charge, hospital parking, my wheelie bin. Does it make it easier
for marketers to charge for additional personalisation services. The burden of
the state is increasing (how many work in PS compared to a few years ago?)
Public sector boom.


Economic

Life expectancy increasing
 Medical advances mean that we will live longer (not
necessarily better) – whether we want to is another point.
 Percentage of over 65s in population is predicted to
increase by 10% in next 10 years.

 Will doctors be able to ignore their Hippocratic oath or will we see ventilator
farms for geriatrics? There are other serious issues, people wont have the
wealth to enjoy their retirement, most people‟s pension funds just wont be big
enough to keep them going through 30 years of dotage. We may have to
work longer. The impact on the NHS will be considerable, even the rich wont
be able to afford the £1000pcm health insurance premiums. We could see
four generations living under the same roof and equity release (what equity?)
becoming the norm


Economic

Replacement society
If ain’t broke, replace it

 Environmental pressures encouraging us to keep things longer. More sites
like www.freecycle.com and perhaps a local sharing site. (especially now)
There is a contradiction here! Throw away more, recycle more. Perhaps
companies will upgrade for free, some already do.


Economic

Information for the buyer
„Historically information has been asymmetric, distributed in favour of the
suppler, now we are getting closer to perfect-ed markets.

Residual prices

 Buyer power, auction everything, falling margins, more rational decision
making for high cost items.


Social

In search of happiness

„We have never been wealthier and never more miserable‟

Happiness Economics is the study of a country's well-being by
combining economists' and psychologists' techniques. It relies on
more expansive notions of utility than does conventional
economics. Although its usefulness is yet to be determined, it
has become a subject of interest and often a measure of
comparison with the traditional forms of measuring market
health such as GDP and GNP.[1]

So what happens to rampant (it always is) consumerism,
the pursuit of profit, our working week, the work-life
imbalance, investing?


Social

Counsel me, improve me
 Make me slim
 Make me confident
 Make me wealthy
 Make me better
 Make me give up … with horses*
 Seven secrets to …
 Help me fight
 Improve my
 Give me a six pack
 Help me be content with myself
 Mass personalisation has encouraged it‟s all about me
(or you) culture

* equine rehabilitation programs

Social

No more nuclear families
 1 in 4 children is brought up within a one household
family
 „Sandwich generations‟ looking after their parents and
their children.
 Children staying at home till 30+
 Average HH income is still under £30k, average house price over
£200k. Work it out.
 Flats, flats, flats, flats, apartments, flats, starter home


Social

Food fascism
 Jamie Oliver, Lillian McKeith
 28 units of alcohol for men, 21 for women
 5 a day; 1 litre of water
 No processed foods, Mediterranean diets
 Glass of red wine a day is good/not good for you

So what could this result in?
 The wealthy living longer than they already do. It is not just access to better
quality healthcare but they can afford better diets. Will good food continue to
demand a premium?


Social

Other social
 Social networks, the time poor, global connections
and friendship
 Will the nature of friendship change? You have more contact with
colleagues 2000 miles away than your neighbours.
 Facebook culling is happening near you.
 Deficit of trust (again)
 We have to include this. McDonalds, policeman, the church and
your peers.
 Fear of litigation
 Courses, more courses, no reviews, lack of personal responsibility.


Business

Un-concentrated markets
 Many markets where digital is a significant channel will see a
single market leader with smaller minnows targeting the niches.
Google and Amazon are becoming the category. And it
probably wont just be on line, Mckinsey argue there is little
value in being medium sized (whatever that is?). Businesses
might as well own the means of production, be big and use
scale to their advantage or be small and nimble, outsource a
variety of functions and being able to change their strategy and
cost structure quickly.

Market
Leader


Business

Commercial transparency

"Old economy fog is clearing: no longer can incompetence,
below-par performance, ignored global standards, anti-social &
anti-eco behavior, or opaque pricing be obscured. In its place
has come a transparent, fully informed marketplace, where
producers have no excuse left to underperform. TRANSPARENCY
TYRANNY for some, TRANSPARENCY TRIUMPH for others."

- trendwatching

Trip adviser, adviser everything, price comparison, mobile price comparison
on line recordings, mobile films uploaded, social network links … peer2peer
Adviser, brand terrorism.


Business

Environment
“One of the most
complete and speedy
revolutions in consumer
attitudes ever seen”

Ethical funds are now
outperforming traditional
funds.


Business

It‟s not what, it‟s how you do it
 Unique selling Proposition (USPs) are few and far
between. There are so many me-too products and
manufacturers can copy so quickly that marketers are
struggling to differentiate their products. Every marketer
should aim to turn their product into a service or
experience. USP now stands for unique service
proposition.


Business

Re-intermediation
Re-intermediation, putting the middle man back into the chain, not
dis-intermediation is the opportunity. Aggregate and simplify.


Free-conomics

 „The disrupter‟s motto is “be the first to give away what others charge for‟ – Chris
Anderson
 Good, fast, cheap is no longer good enough we have to be different do something
extra.
 Youtube destroying TV, Skype is destroying traditional telephony. What can you
give away free?


Business

Business
 Outsourcing
 Focus on what you do best, core competencies. It is getting easier
and easier to let third parties manage anything from your IT to HR.
You can establish an international company in your garden
 Competitor co-operation
 Affiliate culture and the need to establish relationships will
encourage businesses to work with partners and traditional
competitors. It‟s rampant in technology.
 Vertical integration
 Modern supply chain systems make it easier for businesses to
integrate with each other regardless of their place in the supply
chain.


Business

Business
 Instant feedback
 It‟s easier for businesses to get immediate feedback from partners
and suppliers. EPOS, supply chains, viewing figures, on line
research, text response. Businesses need to be and can be more
flexible.
 Business organisms
 Info-structure not infra-structure is the most important asset.
Amazon‟s relationship is driven by data. New technologies e.g.
unified messaging, convergence, make businesses like these
extremely agile and mobile.
 Social networking for everyone
 For corporations, why not? Must be better than knowledge
management systems. This is already happening.


Consumer

Minority everything
Minorites have a voice, they also have a value to marketers because
they are now easier to reach. It‟s the long tail idea again.

 Media buying will focus more and more on contextual, less on volume.
Marketers will want to know how small and discrete the segment is not how
big it is.


Consumer

ASD for everyone
 Impatience – we expect everything now. We don‟t watch
just TV we read the paper at the same time and surf, we
can have it on demand. Books are only read on holiday
or on trains – assuming we are not on the mobile. Even
our groceries get delivered. Everyone complaining of not
enough me-time.

 Expect to me new types of time saving services
and convergent devices. But remember time
saving devices can be a curse, you could be
expected to do more with the time available.


Consumer

Escalating expectations
 We work longer hours, spend more time commuting, can
purchase most things 24x7, supermarkets are open
100hrs plus a week – we have the time, want it now
generation.
 Fast, good and cheap is no longer good enough.
Businesses have to offer consumers something more!

 The customer is right, the customer is king, the customer is getting out of
control. Are we seeing a power shift to the buyer? Like procurement. Expect
more brands to put service at heart of their offering. Majority of FS advertising
in 07 promoted their service credentials.


Consumer

Affiliate me
 Customers get paid for information with on line surveys,
blogs, adwords, co-buying, social shopping. Everything
has a price.

Here„s a sign of the times. A US eBay seller called destiny222 is
flogging her $103,245.11 (£50k) debt accumulated on stuff like
her house, ...read

Telegraph 29 April 08

 eBay has taught them that everything has a price. They are quick learners.
Customers selling their custom to the marketers.


Consumer

Virtuous thrift
 Baked Potatoes and Fishfingers for supper.
 But now we will feel good about it - because everyone else is
doing it.
 Lidl and Aldi not Sainsbury‟s or Waitrose
Things you will hear at dinner parties in 2009

“The serrano Ham and Chorizo at Lidl is better than
Sainsbury’s and M&S – fact. You should try it”

P.S. It is.

 Less conspicuous consumption (even if you have the money). Thrift in the
media – holidays/eating/home improvement on a shoestring. Substitution
spending so more visits to McDonalds less Pizza Express.


Consumer
 Peter Pan-ism
 The obsession with youth, and staying youthful. Gap years taken
later and later.
 Pre-maturity
 Children getting older younger.
 Born to be wired
 You know this. Teenagers grow up with technology, connectivity,
change and obsolescence are taken for granted. My 4 year old can
turn on the PC, access her favourites, play games, recognise all
the key buttons – of course she can‟t read yet. Thank god.
 Frugality
 The fear of living too long. Already talking about the frugal rich.


Marketing

Mass uniqueness

 Personalisation is now expected, people demand choice even
though they don‟t know what to do with it – the paradox of choice.
Do we really want that much choice?
 Many businesses claim never to sell the same product or service.
• www.sevencycles.com, cars,
 But perhaps what we really want is uniqueness. Personalisation
is a shallow alternative.

 Wiki design. I design it, you make it. It could never happen … colour mixing is
an example of it happening already. „Grow your own white goods‟ – Telegrapgh
12-05-08. It is happening today.


Mobile is still coming
 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 the year of mobility
 Much more text than email sent every day
 50m, 60m, 70m mobile devices in the UK?
 Costs are falling
 Mobile BB for a fixed fee under £20pcm
 Do we need the killer application to start the ball rolling
 Mobile price comparison?

 Phones with 80gb memory, instant sales, mobile price comparison, mobile
reviews.


Marketing

Experience shopping
 Whilst the internet has taken the fun out of shopping and many
of the shops out of the high street. More retailers are trying to
enhance the shopping experience. Make it fun, make it
something people want to do.

 Go to the clothes showroom, buy something and the items are delivered to your
home. Next you cook your own meal following instructions from a live Gordon
Ramsey hologram. Next it‟s the club, like the music? OK we will email it to the
cab for your ride home.


Marketing

Consumer in control
 It‟s web 2.0, the user generated content chestnut. Brands are
no longer in control. but how much control can they cede. If you
lose all control, it follows your margin will decline to zero.
 Don‟t believe me. Agency procurement, supermarket buying
strategies. Who is in control, who makes the money? So where
is the incentive to produce?

 Brand losing total control, margin dipping close to zero. So where is the
incentive to take risks? Perhaps every customer will become owners, every
time you buy we give you more equity? Tesco could apply this model to their
clubcard customers tomorrow. Terry Leahy – please ring me.


Marketing

Digital engagement agencies

 How much can our (smaller) clients achieve utilising social
networking, advertorial, forums, email, organic search, blogs,
wikis, reviews, affiliate and partner programs, weblinks? Quite a
lot. It has energised B2B marketing.

 Small (and bigger) businesses have a ready made marketing strategy and in
certain markets you may not even need traditional media.


Marketing

Brands as facilitators …
 Many more brands now talk category. Cycle websites don‟t just
sell cycles, they sell cycling lifestyle. It is the big ideal, they just
don‟t realise it. We think the world would a better place if
everyone got on their bike.
 Once there was room for two or three shops on each high
street, but now we can only fit 10 on every screen.
 How many cycle lifestyle websites do you need?

 It is more of a question. How many brand butlers, brand facilitators can we
stomach? Advisers, help desks, demo‟s, widgets, comparisons. Surely not
everyone can do it, is it winner take all again.


Technology

Portable lives
 Memory sticks are relatively new. Three years ago 250kb
was the norm now they would laugh at you. 8mb is
common place. It wont be long before you can have your
total hard drive on a stick, you may not even need a PC
just a dumb client to access a few software packages
from. All your life, your wealth, all your music, all your
banking information, your personal interests … on a stick.
And what if were wireless enabled.
What could this result in?
 Personality theft would be big, instant dating in night clubs with compatibility
tests; at least you wont have to ask what music do you like?


Technology

Getting smaller
 Nano-technology, everything is getting smaller. RFID
chips or something better in anything from pallets to
clothes tags means you can track everything from your
supplier through your distribution system to the till.

 Tracking components from factory to sale to home, perhaps self repairing
fridges. Messaging telling you it could be time to replace your no1 tank top. You
have worn it for 360 hours already – you loser.


Technology

Intelligence not required
 Big Blue beat Kasparov in the mid 90s, poker sites are
have software dedicated to spot players using decision
making software, robotics is making leaps and bounds,
on line advertising can be automatically optimised. Neural
networking can find non linear patterns in vast datasets.
Luckily, humans retain some advantages.
 The ability to ask questions (Picasso)
 Thinking outside the parameters set by experience

 Don‟t know, need a computer to work this one out. But perhaps we place a
greater premium on social skills, caring professions, counselling?


Working environment
 Going plural
 The need for leisure time, break down of the 9 to 5 constraint
 Super rocket fast Home-working
 Commuting, office costs, work life balance, technology
 Fake professionalism on the increase
 HIPs, Conveyancing, para legals, community support office,
classroom assistants
 Feel the need for re-education
 50 years working, redundancy, skills becoming obsolete, obsession
with self-improvement.
 Task groups becoming the norm
 Unified messaging, Lockhead skunkworks


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