1) Intra-regional trade in Africa has more than doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s, especially in food calories. However, Africa still relies heavily on imports from outside the continent to meet basic food demand. 2) Reducing trade barriers like tariffs within African trade blocs could increase intra-African agricultural trade by over 57% in the next decade, helping Africa satisfy more of its food needs from within the continent. 3) For intra-African agricultural trade and food security to improve further, issues like infrastructure bottlenecks, non-tariff barriers, and uneven benefits of regional integration must still be addressed.

1. FRANCESCO RAMPA
Head of Food Security Programme
GDPRD
20 May 2015, The Hague
From international trade to
regional & south-south trade

2. • After 90’s, Regionalism as main trade policy
[since DDA stuck]
• RTA easier (simpler; common aims/institutions,
easier to harmonize behind-border measures,
more time for adjustment, regional scale
economies; easier to predict losers)
• African RECs, ASEAN, APEC, etc…TTIP…vs WTO..
…distortion/diversion in a globalised economy?
Evolving trade patterns…both commercial trends &
policy/political direction
ECDPM Page 2

3. -
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Europe Asia North
America
Latin America Africa Middle East
Share of intra-regional trade Share of regional value added in intra-regional trade
Share of intra-regional trade
& share of regional value added in the intra-regional
trade (by main region, 2011, %)

4. • Africa still a net importer of agric. products,
while patterns of agric. export largely
characterized by few traditional commodities
• To meet its basic food demand, Africa relies on
imports from outside the continent (87% of
imports from the RoW vs. 13% from Africa)
(UNECA)
• Africa’s basic food products EXP also directed
towards external partners despite its strong
internal needs (78% of exports to the RoW vs.
22% to Africa)
Africa’s trade patterns
ECDPM Page 4

5. ..though improved intra-Afr agr trade from 90’s to 00’
Increased regional integration, especially when looking at the
nutritional contents of ag.trade flows
African Imports Africa Asia Europe LAC NorthAmerica Oceania
Dollars (value)
1990-1995 6.77% 17.26% 37.90% 9.96% 24.79% 3.31%
2002-2007 12.39% 19.81% 35.23% 15.97% 13.68% 2.93%
kCal
1990-1995 3.09% 14.23% 23.81% 10.44% 44.81% 3.62%
2002-2007 7.05% 20.38% 27.06% 19.45% 21.63% 4.43%
African Exports Africa Asia Europe LAC NorthAmerica Oceania
Dollars (value)
1990-1995 7.99% 16.79% 67.32% 0.61% 6.95% 0.34%
2002-2007 15.15% 14.86% 62.51% 0.53% 6.10% 0.84%
kCal
1990-1995 13.80% 26.20% 49.96% 2.99% 6.59% 0.46%
2002-2007 31.41% 29.21% 34.03% 0.92% 4.19% 0.23%
1/3 of the calories exported by Africa, go to Africa
Role of African intra-trade over the
previous decade has more than doubled.
Shift in external
suppliers among
Americas
Source: Bouet,
Deason and Laborde
(2014)

6. ECDPM Page 6

7. • China…but also Braz, India, Gulf, Turkey…
• total trade China-Africa increased by 25%
between 1995 and 2013.. Chinese imports
from and exports to Africa increased by
29% and 22%, respectively
• …RSA 31% of total China-Africa trade in
2013…mineral products 58% of Chinese IMP,
machinery 26% of Chinese EXP
SS trade on the rise
ECDPM Page 7

8. …why regional trade is crucial…
• Challenge is to get food
from rural areas to
consumers in growing
urban centers
• Nearest city is often across
a border
• Provides incentive to invest
in higher productivity
Source: Haggblade et al (2008).

9. • Integrated reg.markets enable food to move from
surplus to deficit areas, increasing food availability,
reducing price volatility, stimulating diversification
• more value created and remain in the region
(employment too)(beyond cash crop EXP)
• RI as gradual integration of developing countries into
global economy, transiting from low competitiveness
commod.trade to reg markets to maturity in GVCs
• Africa: sufficient dissimilarity in current country
production & trading patterns
• …FDI-led regionalism and corridors
• …Political commitment, Malabo Declaration:
tripling…but…infrastr & Governance & Policy
Bottlenecks
low supply response, no incentives to inv, export bans…
Page 9ECDPM

10. (Agr.
development?)
Corridors
Page 10ECDPM

11. Trade Policy Barriers for expanding trade
in Africa
And huge potential for an ambitious trade
facilitation agenda:
– Free Circulation of goods still not achieved
within Custom Unions (intra-trade still
affected by MFN tariffs, double taxation…)
– Numerous fees and bribes
– Administrative burden
– Inefficiency of checkpoints (delays)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
ECOWAS CEMAC COMESA SACU
Average Import Tariffs on
Agri-food imports
Applied to non SSA countries Applied to SSA countries
• Despite RI [tariffs within RECs
going down], intra-Africa trade
still affected by significant tariffs
[still significant between RECs],
espec in Agric…need to address
between blocks trade barriers
• External pressure to liberalize
markets with third countries (EPA
with the EU..)
• Still instability / uncertainty
regarding some trade policies
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tariffs Heterogenity on selected
products among African Custom
Unions
CEMAC ECOWAS COMESA SACU

12. How could intra-Africa agric.trade perform?
Under a business as usual scenario? +122% on
average
Which levers could we use to reach the CAADP
target (+200% from 2014 to 2025, Malabo
declaration)?
– Addressing trade policy barriers
– Improving infrastructure
Source: MIRAGRODEP model simulations, Bouet,
Deason and Laborde (2014)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
% increase in intra-SSA trade between 2013 and
2030
CEMAC COMESA ECOWAS SACU
CEMAC 67% 148% 80% 88%
COMESA 148% 146% 179% 116%
ECOWAS 80% 179% 136% 137%
SACU 88% 116% 137% 111%
Source: MIRAGRODEP model simulations, Bouet,
Deason and Laborde (2014)

13. UNECA study: if ALL tariff barriers within Africa are removed through
the CFTA, and African countries achieve a reduction of costs to trade
across borders (i.e. more efficient customs procedures, faster inland
transport and port handling)
 The share of intra-African trade in strictly agricultural products
would increase by more than 57% over the next 10 years; passing
from about 20% today to nearly 32%:
 With highest increases found in wheat, cereals, sugar cane and
sugar beet, milk and dairy, meat as well as processed food
 re-orientation of trade flows would reduce reliance on
ext.partners to satisfy Africa’s food needs, potentially contribute
in reversing negative trade balances for food products.
 Positive impacts on wages of agricultural workers would also be
found…Yet, only if supply-side constraints are effectively addressed

14. • Role of informal trade in Africa: huge potential for
increasing official level of integration (not included in
existing measure)
• ownership and implementation of regional trade
agenda at national level is not always ensured
• distribution of RI benefits? …hegemons…..regional
champions can be rent-seekers
• SO: instead of CFTA and wholesale RFTAs, pragmatic
(PPP) initiatives to remove trade barriers for a small
set of priority food commodities, where real political
commitment and commercial interests can effectively
change policies and practices ?
ECDPM Page 14

15. • Political economy analysis and trade policy
issues that constrain open regional trade
• Challenges and opportunities : reg. corridor
approaches & trade facilitation for PSD for food
security
• a common vision on ?
 the role donors can play in promoting regional
trade
 opportunities for private sector/FDI
involvement in infrastructure development,
logistics, agri-biz for regional trade
THIS GROUP:
ECDPM Page 15

16. Thank you
fr@ecdpm.org
www.ecdpm.org/foodsecurity
Page 16