1. The document provides a five-year forecast of natural gas demand and supply for Sui Northern Gas Pipelines from 2015-2020. It projects monthly demand for different sectors including domestic, commercial, industrial and power. 2. Gas demand is expected to increase significantly from winter months due to higher household consumption. Industrial demand is projected to rise gradually as new LNG import projects come online. 3. The forecasts indicate growing shortfalls between supply and demand, with shortfalls exceeding 1 BCF/D by the end of the forecast period as demand continues rising faster than anticipated gas availability.

1. 1
SUI NORTHERN GAS PIPELINES
LIMITED
Five Years Forecasting
2015-2020
Presented to:
Sir Shahid
Prepared by:
Tahir Muddassar
BBA: III

2. 2
Projected Demand/ Supply AUG 2015 to June 2016
MMCFD
2015 2016
Description AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
System Input (A)* 1164 1158 1152 1146 1141 1160 1160 1160 1160 1160 1160
Power
Rosuch 85
Sub-total power (Committed) 85
Power (as avalible)
Altern 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Subtotal Power (as avalible ) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Power (KPK)*
Power Projects w.e.f 01.01.2016 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sub-total power(KPK) 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total Power (B) 91 6 6 6 6 56 56 56 56 56 56
Fertilizer
Engro 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Dawood Hercules 49 49 49 49 44 44 44 49 49 49 49
Agritech 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Total Fertilizers © 93 93 93 93 88 88 88 93 93 93 93
Losses 163 162 161 160 160 162 162 162 162 162 162
Company Use 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Total (D) 183 182 181 180 180 182 182 182 182 182 182
Punjab
Domestic 348 355 404 592 798 882 787 645 476 374 370
Commercial 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Strategic/ Defese industry 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
General Industry 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358
Captive Power 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205
Total Punjab (E) 1063 1070 1119 1307 1513 1597 1502 1360 1191 1089 1085
KPK
Domestic 61 63 71 104 141 156 139 114 84 66 65
Commercial 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
General Industry 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Captive Power 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
CNG 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Sub total (F) 199 201 209 242 279 294 277 252 222 204 203
Total Demand (B+C+D+E+F) 1629 1552 1608 1828 2066 2217 2105 1943 1744 1624 1619
Short fall (Volume to be curtailed) -465 -394 -456 -682 -925 -1057 -945 -783 -584 -464 -459

3. 3
Analysis:
There are many factors which must be considered before forecasting the demand and supply of
natural gas
 Price
 Competitive Analysis
 Seasonal Variations
The price is crucial factor and its impact must be added while forecasting. Price also affects
the demand. The higher the price the lesser the demand and consumer will find alternative or
substitutes. Recently, the LNG is imported from Qatar which is priced almost double as
compared to traditional CNG. LNG is only for industrial consumers who are in dire need.
Considering the higher price of LNG we must take into account the price of diesel and other
things which can affect the demand of industrial consumer because they might find LNG
more expensive and they might switch to other things like diesel. Anticipating the demand
the seasonal variations are also taken into consideration because during winters and summer
there is significant difference in demand. The demand is comparatively high in winters in
domestic sector as compared to in summers. Whereas, in the industrial sector demand hardly
varies because in most of the cases the company is committed to provide certain amount of
gas regardless of seasonal variations.
The demand shows significant increase in domestic sector from November 2015 to March
2016 due to high consumption in household. The demand of industrial and commercial sector
Table for Domestic Calculation
Month Billing Consumer added Per consumer load Total Consumption Gas required to avert Low press Projected Load 2015-2016 KPP Punjab Total
JUL 397 300000 0.000093 28 0 425 64 361 424.9
AUG 383 300000 0.000088 26 0 409 61.41 348 409
SEP 391 300000 0.000087 26 0 417 63 355 417
OCT 423 300000 0.000092 28 25 476 71 404 476
NOV 515 300000 0.000104 31 150 696 104 592 696
DEC 717 300000 0.000157 47 175 939 141 798 939
Jan-17 782 300000 0.000184 55 200 1037 156 882 1037
FEB 704 300000 0.000156 47 175 926 139 787 926
MAR 574 300000 0.000117 35 150 759 114 645 759
APR 529 300000 0.000103 31 0 560 84 476 560
MAY 415 300000 0.000083 25 0 440 66 374 440
JUN 411 300000 0.000082 25 0 436 65 370 436

4. 4
almost remained same because of the restriction/ moratorium on the new gas connection.
However, over the time due to the enhancement in LNG project the demand of the industrial
sector can increase.
Projected Demand/ Supply AUG 2016 to JUN 2017
MMCFD
2016 2017
Description JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
System Input (A)* 1168 1165 1160 1155 1148 1140 1163 1161 1161 1161 1160 1160
Power
Rosuch
Sub-total power (Committed)
Power (as avalible)
Altern 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Subtotal Power (as avalible ) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Power (KPK)*
Power Projects w.e.f 01.01.2016 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sub-total power(KPK) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total Power (B) 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
Fertilizer
Engro 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Dawood Hercules 49 49 49 49 49 44 44 44 49 49 49 49
Agritech 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Total Fertilizers © 93 93 93 93 93 88 88 88 93 93 93 93
Losses 169 165 162 161 160 160 162 162 162 162 162 162
Company Use 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total (D) 184 180 177 176 175 175 177 177 177 177 177 177
Punjab
Domestic 382 368 375 428 626 844 932 833 682 503 396 392
Commercial 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Strategic/ Defese industry 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
General Industry 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364
Captive Power 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205
Total Punjab (E) 1103 1089 1096 1149 1347 1565 1653 1554 1403 1224 1117 1113
KPK
Domestic 67 65 66 76 110 149 165 147 120 89 70 69
Commercial 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
General Industry 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Captive Power 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
CNG 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Sub total (F) 205 203 204 214 248 287 303 285 258 227 208 207
Total Demand (B+C+D+E+F) 1548 1621 1626 1688 1919 2171 2277 2160 1987 1777 1651 1646
Short fall (Volume to be curtailed) -380 -456 -466 -533 -771 -1031 -1114 -999 -826 -616 -491 -486

5. 5
Domestic Calculation:
Analysis:
An increase in demand of domestic sector can be seen of both Punjab and KPK. Due to rising
demand the shortfall has significantly increased. Due to scarcity of natural gas it seems difficulty
for the company to meet the demand of consumers. The demand is high during winters especially
from December to March and it significantly decreases during summers. The demand of
industrial sector increased a bit because of rising demand for RLNG.
Month Billing Consumer added Per consumer load Total Consumption Gas required to avert Low press Projected Load 2016-2017 KPP Punjab Total
JUL 425 300000 8.17308E-05 25 0 450 67 382 450
AUG 409 300000 7.86538E-05 24 0 433 65 368 433
SEP 417 300000 8.01923E-05 24 0 441 66 375 441
OCT 476 300000 9.15385E-05 27 25 503 76 428 503
NOV 696 300000 0.000133846 40 150 736 110 626 736
DEC 939 300000 0.000180577 54 175 993 149 844 993
Jan-18 1037 300000 0.000199423 60 200 1097 165 932 1097
FEB 926 300000 0.000178077 53 175 979 147 833 979
MAR 759 300000 0.000145962 44 150 803 120 682 803
APR 560 300000 0.000107692 32 0 592 89 503 592
MAY 440 300000 8.46154E-05 25 0 465 70 396 465
JUN 436 300000 8.38462E-05 25 0 461 69 392 461

6. 6
Projected Demand/ Supply AUG 2017 to JUN 2018
MMCFD
2017 2018
Description JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
System Input (A)* 1320 1315 1311 1309 1303 1297 1323 1319 1315 1315 1312 1312
Power
Rosuch
Sub-total power (Committed)
Power (as avalible)
Altern 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Subtotal Power (as avalible ) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Power (KPK)*
Power Projects w.e.f 01.01.2016 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sub-total power(KPK) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total Power (B) 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
Fertilizer
Engro 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Dawood Hercules 49 49 49 49 49 44 44 44 49 49 49 49
Agritech 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Total Fertilizers © 93 93 93 93 93 88 88 88 93 93 93 93
Losses 165 165 162 161 160 160 162 162 162 162 162 162
Company Use 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total (D) 180 180 177 176 175 175 177 177 177 177 177 177
Punjab
Domestic 403 388 395 451 660 890 983 878 720 531 417 413
Commercial 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120
Strategic/ Defese industry 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
General Industry 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 390
Captive Power 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205 205
Total Punjab (E) 1188 1173 1180 1236 1445 1675 1768 1663 1505 1316 1202 1198
KPK
Domestic 71 68 70 83 116 157 174 115 127 94 74 73
Commercial 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
General Industry 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Captive Power 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
CNG 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Sub total (F) 218 215 217 230 263 304 321 262 274 241 221 220
Total Demand (B+C+D+E+F) 1640 1715 1721 1789 2030 2296 2408 2244 2103 1881 1747 1742
Short fall (Volume to be curtailed) -320 -400 -410 -480 -727 -999 -1085 -925 -788 -566 -435 -430

7. 7
Domestic Calculation:
Scenario in which moratorium is up-lifted
In this case the demand of different sectors is calculated on the basis of assumption if
moratorium is uplifted. Currently, the company is entertaining only those applications which
have already been submitted and the company is no taking any new applications. This all is done
to control the rising demand. Assuming if, moratorium is uplifted the industrial sector and
commercial sector demand will highly increase. However, the domestic sector demand will
continue to vary due to seasonal variations. Cement sector is neglected because the cement
sectors have been shifted to coal and they are only using natural gas in their colonies for power
generation or captive power purpose.
Month Billing Consumer added Per consumer load Total Consumption Gas required to avert Low press Projected Load 2017-2018 KPP Punjab Total
JUL 450 300000 8.18182E-05 25 0 475 71 404 475
AUG 433 300000 7.87273E-05 24 0 457 68 388 457
SEP 441 300000 8.01818E-05 24 0 465 70 395 465
OCT 503 300000 9.14545E-05 27 25 530 80 451 530
NOV 736 300000 0.000133818 40 150 776 116 660 776
DEC 993 300000 0.000180545 54 175 1047 157 890 1047
Jan-18 1097 300000 0.000199455 60 200 1157 174 983 1157
FEB 979 300000 0.000178 53 175 1032 155 878 1032
MAR 803 300000 0.000146 44 150 847 127 720 847
APR 592 300000 0.000107636 32 0 624 94 531 624
MAY 465 300000 8.45455E-05 25 0 490 74 417 490
JUN 461 300000 8.38182E-05 25 0 486 73 413 486

8. 8
MMCFD
2018 2019
Description JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
System Input (A)* 1405 1398 1391 1388 1386 1383 1403 140 1340 1340 1340 1340
Power
Rosuch
Sub-total power (Committed)
Power (as avalible)
Altern 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Subtotal Power (as avalible ) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Power (KPK)*
Power Projects w.e.f 01.01.2016 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sub-total power(KPK) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total Power (B) 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
Fertilizer
Engro 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Dawood Hercules 49 49 49 49 49 44 44 44 49 49 49 49
Agritech 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Total Fertilizers © 93 93 93 93 93 88 88 88 93 93 93 93
Losses 155 153 151 150 150 153 153 153 153 153 153 153
Company Use 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total (D) 170 168 166 165 165 168 168 168 168 168 168 168
Punjab
Domestic 425 409 416 474 694 936 1034 923 757 558 438 434
Commercial 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125
Strategic/ Defese industry 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
General Industry 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405
Captive Power 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209
Total Punjab (E) 1234 1218 1225 1283 1503 1745 1843 1732 1566 1367 1247 1243
KPK
Domestic 75 72 73 84 122 165 183 163 134 98 77 77
Commercial 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 16
General Industry 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Captive Power 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
CNG 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Sub total (F) 226 223 224 235 273 316 334 314 285 249 228 226
Total Demand (B+C+D+E+F) 1686 1758 1764 1832 2090 2373 2489 2358 2168 1933 1792 1786
Short fall (Volume to be curtailed) -281 -360 -373 -444 -704 -990 -1086 -2218 -828 -593 -452 -446

9. 9
Domestic Calculation:
Analysis:
It is anticipated that due to the completion of LNG project in 2018 the demand of industrial
sector would highly increase. The company would be able to generate more gas as compared to
RLNG swap. This would improve the efficiency of the company generating more profit. But still
after the successful completion of LNG project and removal of moratorium on new gas
connection the company seems to be facing a shortfall due to highly rising demand. The shortfall
seems to increase in winters but the company seems to be in position of overcoming this shortfall
in coming years maybe after a decade due to rising input.
Month Billing Consumer added Perconsumerload TotalConsumption GasrequiredtoavertLowpress ProjectedLoad2018-2019 KPP Punjab Total
JUL 475 300000 8.18966E-05 25 0 500 75 425 500
AUG 457 300000 7.87931E-05 24 0 481 72 409 481
SEP 465 300000 8.01724E-05 24 0 489 73 416 489
OCT 530 300000 9.13793E-05 27 25 557 84 474 557
NOV 776 300000 0.000133793 40 150 816 122 694 816
DEC 1047 300000 0.000180517 54 175 1101 165 936 1101
Jan-18 1157 300000 0.000199483 60 200 1217 183 1034 1217
FEB 1032 300000 0.000177931 53 175 1085 163 923 1085
MAR 847 300000 0.000146034 44 150 891 134 757 891
APR 624 300000 0.000107586 32 0 656 98 558 656
MAY 490 300000 8.44828E-05 25 0 515 77 438 515
JUN 486 300000 8.37931E-05 25 0 511 77 434 511

10. 10
Domestic Calculation:
MMCFD
2019 2020
Description JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
System Input (A)* 1410 1392 1389 1385 1381 1379 1398 1404 1408 1405 1405 1405
Power
Rosuch
Sub-total power (Committed)
Power (as avalible)
Altern 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Subtotal Power (as avalible ) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Power (KPK)*
Power Projects w.e.f 01.01.2016 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sub-total power(KPK) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total Power (B) 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
Fertilizer
Engro 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Dawood Hercules 49 49 49 49 49 44 44 44 49 49 49 49
Agritech 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Total Fertilizers © 93 93 93 93 93 88 88 88 93 93 93 93
Losses 155 153 151 150 150 153 153 153 153 153 153 153
Company Use 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total (D) 170 168 166 165 165 168 168 168 168 168 168 168
Punjab
Domestic 446 429 436 497 728 982 1085 968 795 585 459 456
Commercial 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135
Strategic/ Defese industry 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
General Industry 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 405
Captive Power 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209 209
Total Punjab (E) 1271 1254 1261 1322 1553 1807 1910 1793 1620 1410 1284 1281
KPK
Domestic 79 76 77 88 128 173 192 171 140 103 81 80
Commercial 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
General Industry 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Captive Power 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
CNG 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Sub total (F) 232 229 230 241 281 326 345 324 293 256 234 233
Total Demand (B+C+D+E+F) 1729 1800 1806 1877 2148 2445 2567 2429 2230 1983 1835 1831
Short fall (Volume to be curtailed) -319 -408 -417 -492 -767 -1066 -1169 -1025 -822 -578 -430 -426
Month Billing Consumer added Per consumer load Total Consumption Gas required to avert Low press Projected Load 2019-2020 KPP Punjab Total
JUL 500 300000 8.19672E-05 25 0 525 79 446 525
AUG 481 300000 7.88525E-05 24 0 505 76 429 505
SEP 489 300000 8.01639E-05 24 0 513 77 436 513
OCT 557 300000 9.13115E-05 27 25 584 88 497 584
NOV 816 300000 0.00013377 40 150 856 128 728 856
DEC 1101 300000 0.000180492 54 175 1155 173 982 1155
Jan-18 1217 300000 0.000199508 60 200 1277 192 1085 1277
FEB 1085 300000 0.000177869 53 175 1138 171 968 1138
MAR 891 300000 0.000146066 44 150 935 140 795 935
APR 656 300000 0.000107541 32 0 688 103 585 688
MAY 515 300000 8.44262E-05 25 0 540 81 459 540
JUN 511 300000 8.37705E-05 25 0 536 80 456 536

11. 11