Shales101

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- The shale industry in the US is expected to peak between 2018-2020, with reserves overestimated by 100-500% in some plays. Several major oil companies wrote down billions in assets in 2013 due to lower shale gas and oil prices. Shale capital expenditures significantly exceeded free cash flow between 2010-2013. Defaults are expected to increase on high yield bonds as energy debt grows as a percentage of total high yield debt. Job growth in solar has exceeded oil and gas since 2012. Rig counts have plunged 40% and production must increase significantly just to offset declines in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken plays. LNG export plans have been scrapped as price spreads have disappeared. Share prices of leading shale operators have significantly under

Economy & Finance

Photo: Newﬁeld Exploration
Shales: 101
Energy Policy Forum
March 2015

Shale Plays - The Basics
❖ About 32 shale plays in US
❖ Only 6 have meaningful
production
❖ All gas plays are in decline
except Marcellus (2015)
❖ All shales expected to peak
about 2018-2020
❖ Reserves overestimated by
minimum of 100% to as much
as 400-500% in some plays

Asset Write Downs 2013
Exxon Mobil $2B
Shell $2B
Devon$2B
BP $2.1B
BHP $2.84B
Chesapeake $3.3B
Encana $1.7B
More to come in 2015
$35B in write downs on 15
shale companies in 2013

Shale CAPEX vs. Free Cash Flow
Universe of 20 shale operators
Source: Company Financials, Energy Policy Forum
-35
-17.5
0
17.5
35
52.5
70
2010 2011 2012 2013
59.4661.897
56.882
48.717
-14.387
-23.266-21.64-19.723
Free Cash Flow $B Shale CAPEX $B

0
4.75
9.5
14.25
19
2013 2014
% Energy Debt of Total High Yield Debt
Growth in Energy Debt As % of Total HY Debt
Defaults Expected
Source: JP Morgan

(000's)
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
2012 2013 2014
New jobs created - Oil and Gas New jobs created - Solar
Direct Industry Jobs - Oil and Gas vs. Solar
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Solar Foundation

Rig Counts Have Plunged
❖ Rig counts have plunged ~40%
❖ Signiﬁcant deterioration in
new production needed to
offset declines
❖ Reserve values down 25%
Bloomberg
❖ Defaults expected on HY
bonds JP Morgan Chase
Photo: Forbes

Permian
Eagle Ford
Bakken
0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90%
% Nov. 2014 % Feb. 2015
3 Month Deterioration of Tight Oil New Production Needed To Offset Declines
Source: EIA Monthly Drilling Reports

Permian
Eagle Ford
Bakken
0% 30% 60% 90% 120%
% Nov. 2014 % March 2015
% New Production Needed to Offset Declines
Source: EIA Monthly Drilling Reports, Energy Policy Forum
Note that over 100% of new
production is now needed in
Bakken and Eagle Ford so
plays have tipped into
decline

0
750
1500
2250
3000
Iraqi Wells Needed Bakken wells needed
1M BPD Production
Number of Wells Needed Per Year to Produce 1M BPD Crude
Bakken vs. Iraq
Source: IEA

Shale Exportation
❖ Spreads have
disappeared
❖ LNG plans scrapped
❖ Sell out of long term
contracts particularly in
Asia

LNG Spreads Have Disappeared
❖ Natural gas indexed to crude
in rest of world
❖ Crude price of ~$70/bbl
needed for Europe to make
LNG proﬁtable
❖ Crude price of ~$85/bbl
needed for Asia
❖ Crude currently trading ~$45

-120%
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
CHK XCO RRC APC EOG S&P500 Nasdaq
Shale Index
Top Marcellus Operators vs. Indices 5 Year Share Performance
Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
WLL HES EOG CLR S&P500 Nasdaq
Shale Index
Top Bakken Operators vs. Indices 5 Year Share Performance
Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

-45%
-22.5%
0%
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
BHP CHK APC MRO EOG S&P500
Shale Index
Top Eagle Ford Operators vs. Index 5 Year Share Performance
Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

%Returns
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Exco Chesapeake Range Res. Anadarko EOG First Solar Can. Solar SunPower Jinko Solar
Marcellus Operators Solar Co.s
Marcellus vs. Solar 5 Year Share Performance
Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

0
30
60
90
120
Decarbonization Cost to 2050 Fuel Savings
$ Trillions
Global Decarbonization Costs vs. Fuel Savings
Source: IEA

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37th Oil & Money Conference www.oilandmoney.com For more information news@oilandmoney.net Panel: Mario Ruscev, Executive Vice President, President Global Product Lines & Chief TechnologyOfficer Scott Sheffield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Pioneer Natural Resources Lorenzo Simonelli, President and Chief Executive Officer - GE Oil & Gas Moderator: Casey Sattler, News Editor, Western Hemisphere - Energy Intelliegence

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1. Photo: Newﬁeld Exploration Shales: 101 Energy Policy Forum March 2015

2. Shale Plays - The Basics ❖ About 32 shale plays in US ❖ Only 6 have meaningful production ❖ All gas plays are in decline except Marcellus (2015) ❖ All shales expected to peak about 2018-2020 ❖ Reserves overestimated by minimum of 100% to as much as 400-500% in some plays

3. Asset Write Downs 2013 Exxon Mobil $2B Shell $2B Devon$2B BP $2.1B BHP $2.84B Chesapeake $3.3B Encana $1.7B More to come in 2015 $35B in write downs on 15 shale companies in 2013

4. CAPEX = Free Cash Flow? ❖ Not in Shales

5. Shale CAPEX vs. Free Cash Flow Universe of 20 shale operators Source: Company Financials, Energy Policy Forum -35 -17.5 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 59.4661.897 56.882 48.717 -14.387 -23.266-21.64-19.723 Free Cash Flow $B Shale CAPEX $B

6. 0 4.75 9.5 14.25 19 2013 2014 % Energy Debt of Total High Yield Debt Growth in Energy Debt As % of Total HY Debt Defaults Expected Source: JP Morgan

7. Job Creation?

8. (000's) 0.0 8.0 16.0 24.0 32.0 2012 2013 2014 New jobs created - Oil and Gas New jobs created - Solar Direct Industry Jobs - Oil and Gas vs. Solar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Solar Foundation

9. Rig Counts Have Plunged ❖ Rig counts have plunged ~40% ❖ Signiﬁcant deterioration in new production needed to offset declines ❖ Reserve values down 25% Bloomberg ❖ Defaults expected on HY bonds JP Morgan Chase Photo: Forbes

10. Permian Eagle Ford Bakken 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% % Nov. 2014 % Feb. 2015 3 Month Deterioration of Tight Oil New Production Needed To Offset Declines Source: EIA Monthly Drilling Reports

11. Permian Eagle Ford Bakken 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% % Nov. 2014 % March 2015 % New Production Needed to Offset Declines Source: EIA Monthly Drilling Reports, Energy Policy Forum Note that over 100% of new production is now needed in Bakken and Eagle Ford so plays have tipped into decline

12. 0 750 1500 2250 3000 Iraqi Wells Needed Bakken wells needed 1M BPD Production Number of Wells Needed Per Year to Produce 1M BPD Crude Bakken vs. Iraq Source: IEA

13. Shale Exportation ❖ Spreads have disappeared ❖ LNG plans scrapped ❖ Sell out of long term contracts particularly in Asia

14. LNG Spreads Have Disappeared ❖ Natural gas indexed to crude in rest of world ❖ Crude price of ~$70/bbl needed for Europe to make LNG proﬁtable ❖ Crude price of ~$85/bbl needed for Asia ❖ Crude currently trading ~$45

15. -120% -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% CHK XCO RRC APC EOG S&P500 Nasdaq Shale Index Top Marcellus Operators vs. Indices 5 Year Share Performance Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

16. -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% WLL HES EOG CLR S&P500 Nasdaq Shale Index Top Bakken Operators vs. Indices 5 Year Share Performance Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

17. -45% -22.5% 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% BHP CHK APC MRO EOG S&P500 Shale Index Top Eagle Ford Operators vs. Index 5 Year Share Performance Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

18. %Returns -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 Exco Chesapeake Range Res. Anadarko EOG First Solar Can. Solar SunPower Jinko Solar Marcellus Operators Solar Co.s Marcellus vs. Solar 5 Year Share Performance Source: NYSE, Energy Policy Forum

19. 0 30 60 90 120 Decarbonization Cost to 2050 Fuel Savings $ Trillions Global Decarbonization Costs vs. Fuel Savings Source: IEA

20. Energy Policy Forum energypolicyforum.com Follow us @EnergyDeborah Deborah Lawrence Global Energy Economics FaceBook

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