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La crise financière de 2008 l’a montré: toutes les classes d’actifs subissent violemment la réalisation des risques systémiques. Deux grands types de protection émergent.
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Dans un contexte de taux
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alliés à une protection
partielle du capital incite gérants
et investisseurs à s'intéresser aux
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de la performance, au
premier rang desquels figurent
les Barrier Reverse Convertible
(BRC). Hors produits à effet de
levier, ces structurés représentent
à ce jour plus des deux tiers des
produits cotés à la SIX.
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à la volatilité subséquemment
réalisée. Cette anomalie leur permet d'offrir une espérance
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risque encouru potentiellement
supérieure à un investissement
direct sur une stratégie ou un
sous-jacent donné. La préférence
pour ces structures s'inscrit donc
pleinement dans la théorie classique
de l'utilité espérée, qui est
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tentons d'expliquer les comportements
des investisseurs face aux
produits d'opt
TPX 1000 Index - Dividends and Implied Volatility Surfaces Parameters
Financial analysis goldcorp, inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of precious metal properties in canada, the unites states, mexico and central and south america
1. 24.04.2013
Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker: GG UN Goldcorp Inc Benchmark: Goldcorp, Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation
Currency: New York: GG, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) of precious metal properties in Canada, the Unites States, Mexico and Central and
South America.
Sector: Materials Industry: Metals & Mining Year:
Telephone 1-604-696-3000 Revenue (M) 5'435 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)
Website www.goldcorp.com No of Employees #N/A N/A Gold Equivalents 5435 Mexico 2290
Address Park Place Suite 3400 - 666 Burrard St. Vancouver, BC V6C 2X8 Canada Canada 1694
Share Price Performance in USD Argentina 615
Price 27.75 1M Return -17.2% Guatemala 551
52 Week High 46.97 6M Return -31.9% United States 285
52 Week Low 27.11 52 Wk Return -30.3% Silver Wheaton
52 Wk Beta 0.73 YTD Return -23.9% Corporate & Other
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg IG5 5%
S&P BBB+ Date 01.06.2009 Outlook STABLE 10%
Moody's Baa2 Date - Outlook STABLE
Fitch BBB Date 01.06.2009 Outlook STABLE
Valuation Ratios 11% 43%
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
P/E 50.8x 30.4x 22.2x 18.5x 17.2x 12.1x 10.6x
EV/EBIT 34.1x 26.1x 21.6x 14.1x - - -
EV/EBITDA 20.9x 18.4x 15.2x 10.7x 7.9x 5.7x 5.1x
P/S 10.5x 9.1x 6.7x 5.5x 4.0x 3.2x 3.0x
P/B 1.9x 1.9x 1.7x 1.3x 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x
Div Yield 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 31%
100%
Profitability Ratios %
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Gross Margin 37.1 60.5 49.0 44.6 53.4 58.0 -
Mexico Canada
EBITDA Margin 50.2 54.2 43.6 51.5 51.3 56.9 59.7
Operating Margin 30.8 38.1 30.6 39.1 32.5 42.6 39.5
Gold Equivalents
Profit Margin 8.8 54.9 22.1 32.2 24.4 28.8 29.5 Argentina Guatemala
Return on Assets 1.2 8.4 4.2 5.8 4.8 6.8 7.6
Return on Equity 1.6 11.7 5.8 8.0 5.9 7.9 8.5 United States
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12
Current Ratio 2.2 1.7 3.8 2.2 Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio 1.5 1.2 2.6 1.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 811.5
EBIT/Interest 10.8 54.8 71.4 70.8 Market Capitalization (M) 22656.7
Tot Debt/Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash and ST Investments (M) 918.0
Tot Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Debt (M) 783.0
Eff Tax Rate % 46.5 17.9 36.6 22.3 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0
Investments (M) 213.0
Enterprise Value (M) 22734.7
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Goldcorp Inc
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation
Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price
Price
Brokers' Target Price
80 70
100% 4% 4%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8%
60
70
19% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 50
19% 19% 27%
80% 23% 23% 23%
60 40
30
50
60% 20
40 10
0
40% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 30
Morgan Stanley
BMO Capital Markets
Barclays
Canaccord Genuity Corp
RBC Capital Markets
Cormark Securities Inc.
Raymond James
Davenport & Co
GMP
Mackie Research Capital Corp.
Veritas Investment Research
Scotia Capital
Cowen Securities LLC
Credit Suisse
JPMorgan
Salman Partners
Macquarie
Stifel
HSBC
TD Securities
EVA Dimensions
Deutsche Bank
Jefferies
CIBC World Markets
74% 74%
69% 69% 69% 69%
20
20%
10
Co
0% 0
avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 mars.13
Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
29-Mar-13 69% 27% 4% 24-Apr-13 27.75 42.02 Scotia Capital TANYA M JAKUSCONEK sector outperform 40.50 23-Apr-13
28-Feb-13 69% 23% 8% 23-Apr-13 27.75 42.02 Barclays FAROOQ HAMED overweight 40.00 23-Apr-13
31-Jan-13 69% 23% 8% 22-Apr-13 28.56 42.61 Deutsche Bank JORGE M BERISTAIN hold 28.00 22-Apr-13
31-Dec-12 69% 23% 8% 19-Apr-13 27.86 43.96 Credit Suisse ANITA SONI neutral 37.00 22-Apr-13
30-Nov-12 74% 19% 7% 18-Apr-13 27.84 44.58 Stifel GEORGE J TOPPING buy 36.00 22-Apr-13
31-Oct-12 74% 19% 7% 17-Apr-13 27.21 44.58 Davenport & Co LLOYD T O'CARROLL buy 35.00 22-Apr-13
28-Sep-12 77% 15% 8% 16-Apr-13 27.78 44.58 Cormark Securities Inc. RICHARD GRAY buy 41.88 22-Apr-13
31-Aug-12 77% 15% 8% 15-Apr-13 27.64 45.20 RBC Capital Markets STEPHEN D WALKER outperform 36.00 19-Apr-13
31-Jul-12 77% 15% 8% 12-Apr-13 29.63 46.13 JPMorgan JOHN BRIDGES overweight 50.00 19-Apr-13
29-Jun-12 77% 15% 8% 11-Apr-13 31.15 46.13 TD Securities GREG BARNES buy 45.00 16-Apr-13
31-May-12 77% 15% 8% 10-Apr-13 31.50 46.73 BMO Capital Markets DAVID HAUGHTON outperform 48.50 15-Apr-13
30-Apr-12 77% 19% 4% 9-Apr-13 32.35 46.32 Canaccord Genuity Corp STEVEN BUTLER buy 46.00 15-Apr-13
8-Apr-13 31.34 46.21 CIBC World Markets ALEC KODATSKY sector outperform 46.00 11-Apr-13
5-Apr-13 31.73 46.49 Cowen Securities LLC ADAM P GRAF hold 9-Apr-13
4-Apr-13 31.51 46.85 HSBC PATRICK CHIDLEY overweight 45.50 3-Apr-13
3-Apr-13 31.16 46.94 GMP GEORGE V ALBINO buy 60.13 2-Apr-13
2-Apr-13 32.33 47.05 Salman Partners DAVID WEST top pick 59.03 1-Apr-13
1-Apr-13 33.38 47.02 Jefferies PETER D WARD hold 35.00 21-Mar-13
29-Mar-13 33.57 47.01 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING hold 15-Mar-13
28-Mar-13 33.57 47.01 Mackie Research Capital Corp. BARRY D ALLAN buy 47.75 12-Mar-13
27-Mar-13 33.66 47.01 Macquarie TONY LESIAK outperform 48.62 9-Mar-13
26-Mar-13 32.84 47.01 Veritas Investment Research Co PAWEL RAJSZEL sell 33.00 19-Feb-13
25-Mar-13 32.96 47.01 Morgan Stanley PARETOSH MISRA Equalwt/In-Line 8-Jan-13
22-Mar-13 33.50 47.01 Raymond James BRAD HUMPHREY Under Review 19-Nov-08
21-Mar-13 33.39 47.01
20-Mar-13 32.66 47.01
19-Mar-13 32.52 47.01
18-Mar-13 32.46 47.05
15-Mar-13 32.38 47.05
14-Mar-13 32.37 47.05
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
3. 24.04.2013
Goldcorp Inc
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership
0%
Shares Outstanding (M) 811.5 United States 57.15%
22% 1% 1% 4%
Float 99.7% Canada 30.09% 1%
2%
Short Interest (M) 4.1 France 3.94% 4%
Short Interest as % of Float 0.51% Britain 1.85%
Days to Cover Shorts 0.81 Luxembourg 1.33%
Institutional Ownership 77.38% Norway 0.93%
57%
Retail Ownership 22.27% Japan 0.83%
Insider Ownership 0.35% Others 3.90% 30%
78% Institutional Ownership Distribution
Investment Advisor 88.92%
Hedge Fund Manager 4.78%
Pension Fund (Erisa) 1.70%
Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Insurance Company 1.57% United States Canada France Britain
Pricing data is in USD Others 3.03% Luxembourg Norway Japan Others
Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL
Institutional Ownership
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
BLACKROCK 95'391'332 0 2'647'109'463 11.75% 31.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 2% 3%
FMR LLC 32'937'156 -9'098'135 914'006'079 4.06% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 2%
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 31'593'509 -836'637 876'719'875 3.89% 23.04.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 5%
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 22'991'630 1'883'662 638'017'733 2.83% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG CANADA
BMO FINANCIAL CORP 19'122'015 -574'672 530'635'916 2.36% 31.03.2013 13F UNITED STATES
CARMIGNAC GESTION 17'580'357 17'580'357 487'854'907 2.17% 31.12.2012 13F FRANCE
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT 15'632'925 5'971'920 433'813'669 1.93% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
CI INVESTMENTS INC 12'996'285 -440'597 360'646'909 1.60% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG CANADA
CIBC WORLD MARKETS I 11'806'864 70'556 327'640'476 1.45% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
TORONTO DOMINION BAN 11'409'803 1'401'951 316'622'033 1.41% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA 88%
FIRST EAGLE INVESTME 11'152'441 95'200 309'480'238 1.37% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
FRANKLIN RESOURCES 10'114'617 -651'961 280'680'622 1.25% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
IA CLARINGTON INVEST 8'426'680 -27'800 233'840'370 1.04% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG CANADA
Investment Advisor Hedge Fund Manager Pension Fund (Erisa)
CIBC GLOBAL ASSET MA 7'362'990 699'268 204'322'973 0.91% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
Insurance Company Others
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET P 7'239'262 -4'220'800 200'889'521 0.89% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
GREYSTONE MANAGED IN 7'106'968 -2'294'891 197'218'362 0.88% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
FIERA CAPITAL CORPOR 6'835'256 1'053'271 189'678'354 0.84% 31.03.2013 13F CANADA
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL 6'271'509 -3'832'372 174'034'375 0.77% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL I 6'162'583 -935'880 171'011'678 0.76% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG CANADA
NORGES BANK 5'776'522 1'267'153 160'298'486 0.71% 31.12.2012 13F NORWAY
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
REIFEL P RANDY 1'444'107 3'500 40'073'969 0.18% 01.05.2012 SEDI
JEANNES CHARLES A 416'561 18'333 11'559'568 0.05% 11.03.2013 SEDI
HALL LINDSAY A 117'023 8'667 3'247'388 0.01% 11.03.2013 SEDI
SEDESTROM CHERYL A 93'303 5'333 2'589'158 0.01% 11.03.2013 SEDI
RONKOS CHARLES JOSEPH 91'937 5'333 2'551'252 0.01% 11.03.2013 SEDI
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |