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04.03.2013



                                                                                          Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                     MBI UN             MBIA Inc                                                     Benchmark:                                     MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance and other forms of credit protection.
Currency:                                      New York: MBI, Currency: USD                                 S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                            The Company also offers investment management services to public finance and
                                                                                                                                                           structured finance issuers, investors and capital market participants.
Sector: Financials       Industry: Insurance                                                                   Year:
Telephone         1-914-273-4545                      Revenue (M)                                   2'386   Business Segments in USD                               Sales (M)    Geographic Segments in USD                              Sales (M)
Website           www.mbia.com                        No of Employees                            #N/A N/A   Corporate                                                    196    Global                                                      -1582
Address           113 King Street Armonk, NY 10504 United States                                            Advisory Services                                             67
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                              Wind-down Operations                                        -181
Price                                10.77            1M Return                                    25.7%    Eliminations                                                -338
52 Week High                         12.00            6M Return                                    -2.3%    Insurance                                                  -1326
52 Week Low                           6.78            52 Wk Return                                  5.3%    Investment Management services
52 Wk Beta                            1.88            YTD Return                                   37.2%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                   HY1
                                                                                                                                                 9%
S&P                           B-      Date                 22.12.2010              Outlook           NEG
                                                                                                                                                      3%
Moody's                    Caa1       Date                 -                       Outlook       DEVELOP
Fitch                        NR       Date                 26.06.2008              Outlook              -                                                  9%
Valuation Ratios
                          12/09      12/10        12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E
P/E                            -       4.1x         5.5x          6.6x    16.2x              -          -
EV/EBIT                        -          -            -             -         -             -          -                                                  16%
EV/EBITDA                      -          -            -             -         -             -          -               63%
P/S                         0.3x       2.9x            -          0.6x      5.8x             -          -
P/B                         0.3x       0.8x         1.3x          0.5x      0.5x          0.4x          -
Div Yield                  0.0%       0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          -             -          -                                                                                                   100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09         12/10        12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E
                                                                                                                                  Corporate
Gross Margin                -            -             -            -         -             -           -
EBITDA Margin               -            -             -            -         -             -           -                         Advisory Services
Operating Margin        35.3          27.4             -         79.1         -             -           -
                                                                                                                                  Wind-down Operations
Profit Margin           23.6           6.3             -         51.7      26.9             -           -                                                                                                      Global
Return on Assets          2.3          0.2          -4.5          5.1         -             -           -                         Eliminations
Return on Equity        34.2           1.9         -58.2         50.6         -             -           -
                                                                                                                                  Insurance
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09         12/10        12/11         12/12
Current Ratio               -            -            -             -                                       Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio                 -            -            -             -                                       Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                                195.7
EBIT/Interest               -            -            -             -                                       Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                   2076.0
Tot Debt/Capital          0.8          0.9          0.8           0.6                                       Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                  990.0
Tot Debt/Equity           4.2          5.8          3.2           1.3                                       Total Debt (M)                                                                                              4204.0
Eff Tax Rate %          47.9             -            -          22.8                                       Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                           0.0
                                                                                                            LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                            Investments (M)                                                                                               21.0
                                                                                                            Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                        5311.0



                                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
MBIA Inc
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                             Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                   Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                              25           25
                        100%      0%        0%                                      0%        0%       0%

                                                                                                                                                   20%
                                                     25%      25%        25%                                      25%         25%         25%
                                                                                                                                                              20           20
                        80%                                                                                                                         0%
                                                     0%        0%        0%                                       0%          0%           0%

                                                                                                                                                                           15
                        60%                                                                                                                                   15

                                 100%      100%                                    100%      100%     100%
                                                                                                                                                                           10
                        40%                                                                                                                        80%        10
                                                     75%      75%        75%                                      75%         75%         75%
                                                                                                                                                                             5
                        20%                                                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                                                                                             0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MKM Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                          S&P Capital IQ




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Pressprich &
                                                                                                                                                                                            BTIG LLC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dimensions
                         0%                                                                                                                                   0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       EVA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              R.W.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Co
                                mars.12    avr.12   mai.12   juin.12    juil.12   août.12   sept.12   oct.12     nov.12      déc.12     janv.13   févr.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold         Sell      Price          Target Price

                               Date                    Buy              Hold                Sell                    Date               Price Target Price                  Broker                      Analyst                                         Recommendation            Target                      Date
                               28-Feb-13              80%                 0%                20%                   4-Mar-13              10.77         16.50                BTIG LLC                    MARK PALMER                                              buy                22.50                   1-Mar-13
                               31-Jan-13              75%                 0%                25%                   1-Mar-13              10.31         16.50                S&P Capital IQ              CATHY SEIFERT                                            sell                9.00                  28-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12              75%                 0%                25%                  28-Feb-13               9.67         16.50                MKM Partners                HARRY FONG                                               buy                18.00                  28-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12              75%                 0%                25%                  27-Feb-13               9.98         20.25                EVA Dimensions              AUSTIN BURKETT                                           buy                                       28-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12              100%                0%                 0%                  26-Feb-13               9.90         20.25                R.W. Pressprich & Co        BRIAN CHARLES                                       speculative buy                                27-Sep-12
                               28-Sep-12              100%                0%                 0%                  25-Feb-13               9.86         20.25
                               31-Aug-12              100%                0%                 0%                  22-Feb-13              10.10         20.25
                               31-Jul-12              75%                 0%                25%                  21-Feb-13              10.23         20.25
                               29-Jun-12              75%                 0%                25%                  20-Feb-13              10.41         20.25
                               31-May-12              75%                 0%                25%                  19-Feb-13              10.92         20.25
                               30-Apr-12              100%                0%                 0%                  18-Feb-13              10.73         20.25
                               30-Mar-12              100%                0%                 0%                  15-Feb-13              10.73         20.25
                                                                                                                 14-Feb-13              10.95         20.25
                                                                                                                 13-Feb-13              10.53         20.25
                                                                                                                 12-Feb-13              10.50         20.25
                                                                                                                 11-Feb-13              10.47         20.25
                                                                                                                  8-Feb-13              10.20         20.25
                                                                                                                  7-Feb-13              10.14         20.25
                                                                                                                  6-Feb-13              10.41         20.25
                                                                                                                  5-Feb-13               8.83         20.25
                                                                                                                  4-Feb-13               8.57         20.25
                                                                                                                  1-Feb-13               8.73         20.25
                                                                                                                 31-Jan-13               8.61         20.25
                                                                                                                 30-Jan-13               8.66         20.25
                                                                                                                 29-Jan-13               8.34         20.25
                                                                                                                 28-Jan-13               8.12         20.25
                                                                                                                 25-Jan-13               8.42         20.25
                                                                                                                 24-Jan-13               8.28         20.25
                                                                                                                 23-Jan-13               8.55         20.25
                                                                                                                 22-Jan-13               8.63         20.25

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
04.03.2013



MBIA Inc
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                             Geographic Ownership
                                                                                      3% 3%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          195.7                                                                                 United States                             91.00%
Float                                           73.3%                                                                                 Unknown Country                           2.83%                                  1% 1%1% 1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3%
Short Interest (M)                                13.0                                                                                Britain                                   2.82%                               2%
Short Interest as % of Float                    9.05%                                                                                 Bermuda                                   0.80%
Days to Cover Shorts                              3.44                                                                                Canada                                    0.62%
Institutional Ownership                        94.10%                                                                                 Norway                                    0.60%
Retail Ownership                                3.17%                                                                                 Germany                                   0.58%
Insider Ownership                               2.74%                                                                                 Others                                    0.77%

                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           90%
                                                                                                 94%                                  Investment Advisor                        56.80%
                                                                                                                                      Private Equity                            24.73%
                                                                                                                                      Hedge Fund Manager                        12.23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          United States        Unknown Country    Britain
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Individual                                2.83%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bermuda              Canada             Norway
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                Others                                    3.42%                     Germany              Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
WARBURG PINCUS LLC                          46'159'252                   0                      497'135'144              23.95%                      02.01.2013    Form 4    UNITED STATES                            3%             3%
WARBURG PINCUS LLC                          46'159'252                   0                      497'135'144              23.95%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MA                        42'495'420          -1'791'750                      457'675'673              22.05%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES                      12%
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV                         9'898'469             483'380                      106'606'511               5.14%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
THE LONDON COMPANY                           9'742'153             545'324                      104'922'988               5.05%                      31.01.2013     13G      UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC                           7'686'354             273'007                       82'782'033               3.99%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  57%
MARATHON ASSET MANAG                         4'879'411          -2'782'397                       52'551'256               2.53%                      31.12.2012     13F         BRITAIN
BLACKROCK                                    4'835'478             398'338                       52'078'098               2.51%                      28.02.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     25%
BLACKSTONE                                   4'306'398           3'542'293                       46'379'906               2.23%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG
ELM RIDGE MANAGEMENT                         3'923'432          -1'783'847                       42'255'363               2.04%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
KAHN BROTHERS GROUP                          2'981'590              40'849                       32'111'724               1.55%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP                          2'810'625           2'405'219                       30'270'431               1.46%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
STATE STREET                                 2'197'738              74'843                       23'669'638               1.14%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO                         2'173'700           1'709'700                       23'410'749               1.13%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES   Investment Advisor           Private Equity         Hedge Fund Manager
                                                                                                                                                                                             Individual                   Others
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNAT                         1'700'508             100'364                       18'314'471               0.88%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
QVT FINANCIAL LP                             1'605'654                   0                       17'292'894               0.83%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
TOUCHSTONE ADVISORS                          1'530'804              81'640                       16'486'759               0.79%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
CATLIN GROUP LTD                             1'500'000           1'500'000                       16'155'000               0.78%                      31.12.2012     13F        BERMUDA
BROWN JR JOSEPH W                            1'452'456                   0                       15'642'951               0.75%                      18.02.2013    Form 4         n/a
SG AMERICAS SECURITI                         1'406'554           1'406'554                       15'148'587               0.73%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
BROWN JR JOSEPH W                            1'452'456                                             15'642'951              0.75%                     18.02.2013    Form 4
FALLON WILLIAM C                             1'005'281             600'000                         10'826'876              0.52%                     21.12.2012    Form 4
CHAPLIN CHARLES EDWARD                         999'221             600'000                         10'761'610              0.52%                     21.12.2012    Form 4
MCKIERNAN ANTHONY                              562'210             400'000                          6'055'002              0.29%                     21.12.2012    Form 4
WERTHEIM RAM D                                 476'246             400'000                          5'129'169              0.25%                     21.12.2012    Form 4




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
MBIA Inc
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                              Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11    12/12   12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                               1'464        1'869    2'054       2'303       2'712         -284      -1'267        2'685       833    -1'582   2'386     358
  - Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                  103           111     120         172           94        1'413         929         475
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                      1'165        1'519    1'661       1'840       2'315       -2'903      -3'895         947        228    -1'902   1'888
  - Interest Expense                                    372          371      488         822       1'182          163         243                    384       363     339
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                      0            0                    0           0           0         -410        -269         -61     -26      -49

Pretax Income                                          793         1'149    1'173       1'017       1'133       -3'066      -3'727        1'217        -95   -2'239   1'598      84           -50
  - Income Tax Expense                                 206           335      332         304         320       -1'144      -1'055          583       -148     -920     364

Income Before XO Items                                 587           814     840         713          813       -1'922      -2'673         634         53    -1'319   1'234
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                       8             0      -3           2           -6            0           0           0          0         0
   - Minority Interests                                  0             0       0           0            0            0           0           0          0         0

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                           3.98          5.61    5.80        5.20         5.95      (15.17)      (12.29)       2.99       0.26    (6.69)   6.33

Net Income Adjusted*                                   630              0       0        764          788         193       -1'259       -1'245          0            1'234       96          -17
EPS Adjusted                                          4.27          4.80    5.32        5.56         5.81        1.52        (5.79)       (6.04)     0.26             6.33     0.67        (0.09)
Dividends Per Share                                   0.68          0.80    0.96        1.12         1.24        1.36         0.00         0.00      0.00     0.00    0.00
        Payout Ratio %                                17.0          14.2    16.3        21.1         20.4                                   0.0       0.0

Total Shares Outstanding                               145           144     139         133          135         125          208         205        200      193     196
Diluted Shares Outstanding                             148           145     145         137          137         127          218         208        203      197     195

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02    12/03    12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                 83      182      366         233         269          264       2'280         803        1'130      633      990
  + Short Term Investments             16'215   18'367   22'085      25'425      30'716       35'054      16'416      12'663       16'547   11'359    7'758
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable           351      351      414         530         651          783       1'160       5'668        6'464    6'563    6'757
  + Inventories
  + Other Current Assets

Total Long-Term Assets
  + Long Term Investments              17'095   27'707   30'618      32'155      37'077       42'066      20'639      16'608       21'545   16'929   12'137
         Gross Fixed Assets
         Accumulated Depreciation        302       320      406         427         450          473         561          470         412      351      302
  + Net Fixed Assets                     128       123      115         109         106          104         105           77          71       69       69
  + Other Long Term Assets               892     1'585    1'117       1'107       1'210        3'726       4'286        2'076       2'657    2'328    1'469

Total Current Liabilities
  + Accounts Payable
  + Short Term Borrowings                  0     7'905   11'336      11'725      13'270       18'327       6'459        5'924      12'660    1'578      944
  + Other Short Term Liabilities         616       567      742         730         496        1'220         857        5'371       7'275    6'399    3'096

Total Long Term Liabilities
  + Long Term Borrowings                8'264    9'862    8'877      10'033      13'619       14'056       8'736        4'942       3'950    3'856    3'260
  + Other Long Term Borrowings          1'151    2'035    1'563       1'575       1'508        5'671       6'975          322         273    8'966    7'439

Total Liabilities                      13'359   24'009   26'477      27'970      32'559       43'759      28'008      23'094       29'433   25'150   18'530
  + Long Preferred Equity                   0        0        0           0           0            0           0           0            0        0
  + Minority Interest                       0        0        0           0           0            0          28          17           14       23       21
  + Share Capital & APIC                1'392    1'449    1'566       1'636       1'691        1'810       3'324       3'333        3'339    3'347    3'353
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity    4'101    4'810    4'992       4'956       5'513        1'846      -2'329        -742         -506   -1'647     -180

Total Shareholders Equity               5'493    6'259    6'559       6'592       7'204        3'656       1'022        2'607       2'846    1'723    3'194

Total Liabilities & Equity             18'852   30'268   33'036      34'561      39'763       47'415      29'030      25'701       32'279   26'873   21'724

Book Value Per Share                    37.94    43.50    47.05       49.54       53.43        29.16        4.78       12.66        14.18     8.80    16.22    23.80    26.71
  Tangible Book Value Per Share         37.32    42.88    46.48       48.95       52.84        28.53        4.41       12.50        14.02     8.80




                                                           Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                            12/02     12/03     12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09        12/10    12/11    12/12   12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                                579       814       843         711          819       -1'922      -2'673          634          53    -1'319              96       -17
  + Depreciation & Amortization            14        11        14          12            9           10          10            9           8         7
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments             25        43      -103         100          -54       -1'130       2'146         -164        -903    -1'141
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital           255       110       128         -37         -110        4'064         361       -2'671        -414      -523

Cash From Operating Activities             873       979       881         785         664        1'022        -156       -2'192       -1'256   -2'976
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets                 0         1         2           2           0            4           0            0            3        0
  + Capital Expenditures                   -15       -11        -9          -9         -11          -12         -11           -6           -5       -5
  + Increase in Investments            -19'971   -27'852   -26'810     -17'060     -23'020      -33'209     -15'353      -10'689      -10'124   -7'744
  + Decrease in Investments             18'068    23'989    24'484      14'880      18'222       26'904      33'455       15'671       14'227   12'561
  + Other Investing Activities                                  22                       2            2           0            0          910     -517

Cash From Investing Activities          -1'919    -3'873    -2'310      -2'187      -4'807       -6'311      18'091        4'977        5'011    4'295
  + Dividends Paid                         -97      -111      -132        -147        -163         -173         -43          -10           -1        0
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings        -64     1'527       115      -1'750        -652        1'139        -899         -284         -424     -249
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings     4'788     5'732     9'543      11'614      14'051       16'113       4'769          603          122      237
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings    -3'421    -4'094    -7'644      -8'090      -8'997      -11'084     -21'674       -4'521       -3'067   -1'761
  + Increase in Capital Stocks              19        26        63          23          48           46       2'035            0            0        0
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks            -209       -82      -375        -370         -61         -739        -221          -16          -31      -50
  + Other Financing Activities              -3        -4        -2          -3         -29          -19         114          -34          -27        7

Cash From Financing Activities          1'014     2'993     1'568        1'277       4'197        5'283     -15'919       -4'261       -3'428   -1'816

Net Changes in Cash                       -32        99       139         -125          54           -6       2'016       -1'477         327      -497

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)                858       968       873         776          653        1'010        -167       -2'198       -1'261   -2'981

Free Cash Flow To Firm                  1'133     1'230     1'223        1'353       1'501
Free Cash Flow To Equity                          4'133     2'889        2'552       5'055        7'181     -17'971       -6'410       -4'627   -4'754
Free Cash Flow per Share                 5.85      6.75      6.15         5.79        4.91         7.97       -0.77       -10.56        -6.23   -15.13




                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/02    12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12        12/13E       12/14E       12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                     11.9x    12.3x    11.8x       11.5x       12.6x        18.4x                                4.1x      5.5x    6.6x         16.2x
  EV to EBIT
  EV to EBITDA
  Price to Sales                       4.4x     4.5x     4.4x       3.5x         3.6x                                 0.3x        2.9x              0.6x         5.8x
  Price to Book                        1.2x     1.4x     1.3x       1.2x         1.4x        0.6x         0.9x        0.3x        0.8x     1.3x     0.5x         0.5x         0.4x
  Dividend Yield                      1.6%     1.4%     1.5%       1.9%         1.7%        7.3%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin
  EBITDA Margin                                                                                                                                            -            -            -
  Operating Margin                   79.5%    81.3%    80.8%      79.9%        85.4%                                35.3%       27.4%             79.1%
  Profit Margin                      39.5%    43.5%    41.0%      30.9%        30.2%                                23.6%        6.3%             51.7%        26.9%
  Return on Assets                    3.3%     3.3%     2.7%       2.1%         2.2%       -4.4%        -7.0%        2.3%        0.2%     -4.5%    5.1%
  Return on Equity                   11.3%    13.8%    13.2%      10.8%        11.9%      -35.4%      -114.9%       34.2%        1.9%    -58.2%   50.6%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio
  Quick Ratio
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
  Tot Debt/Capital                    0.60     0.74     0.76        0.77        0.79         0.90        0.94         0.81       0.85      0.76    0.57
  Tot Debt/Equity                     1.50     2.84     3.08        3.30        3.73         8.86       14.87         4.17       5.84      3.15    1.32

Others
  Asset Turnover                      0.08     0.08     0.06        0.07        0.07        -0.01       -0.03         0.10       0.03     -0.05    0.10
  Accounts Receivable Turnover
  Accounts Payable Turnover
  Inventory Turnover

  Effective Tax Rate                 26.0%    29.2%    28.3%      29.9%        28.2%                                47.9%                         22.8%




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                          AMBAC FINL        ASSURED         RADIAN GROUP       SYNCORA            PRIMUS            BERKSHIRE HATH-                         CAPMARK
                                         MBIA INC                                                                                                                   ISTAR FINANCIAL                              CIT GROUP INC
                                                            GROUP          GUARANTY              INC           HOLDINGS          GUARANTY                  A                                FINANCIA

Latest Fiscal Year:                          12/2012           12/2012         12/2012            12/2012          12/2008             12/2012              12/2012           12/2012               12/2008            12/2012
52-Week High                                    12.00               0.06          20.19                9.81             1.11                9.74          153'738.88             10.75                 20.00              43.90
52-Week High Date                          14.09.2012        06.02.2013      19.02.2013         04.03.2013       18.10.2012          27.02.2013           28.02.2013        15.02.2013            21.12.2012         29.01.2013
52-Week Low                                       6.78              0.01          11.17                2.00             0.12                5.94          117'422.00               5.37                  8.85             32.29
52-Week Low Date                           13.11.2012        15.03.2012      04.06.2012         18.05.2012       16.08.2012          06.03.2012           05.03.2012        05.06.2012            08.03.2012         01.06.2012
Daily Volume                                  187'326           165'327         445'174          7'458'422              130                 830                  354           499'771                55'000            105'540
  Current Price (3/dd/yy)                       10.77              0.04           19.20               9.50             0.45                9.72          151'149.00              10.15                12.20               42.01
  52-Week High % Change                        -10.2%           -37.7%            -4.9%              -3.2%          -59.5%                -0.2%                -1.7%             -5.6%                -39.0%               -4.3%
  52-Week Low % Change                          58.8%           218.4%           71.9%             375.0%           275.0%                63.6%                28.7%             89.0%                 37.8%              30.1%
Total Common Shares (M)                         195.7            302.4           182.2              133.6             35.1                 34.8                  1.6              83.8                      -             200.9
  Market Capitalization                      2'076.0              11.7         3'730.2            1'593.5             29.3               266.4           248'302.8              849.0               1'220.0            8'447.2
Total Debt                                    4'204.0         15'058.7          1'038.3             772.4                 -               172.3            62'736.0            4'691.5             11'593.6            22'043.7
Preferred Stock                                   -                -                -                 -                 0.0                90.1                 -                545.0                  -                   -
Minority Interest                                21.0            663.4              -                 -                20.0                 -               3'941.0               87.9                186.4                 4.7
Cash and Equivalents                            990.0             20.6            214.5              31.6           1'574.1                87.2           186'759.0              256.3                874.4             6'821.3
   Enterprise Value                          5'311.0          16'258.5         4'437.2            2'334.4                    -           386.2           128'220.8            5'372.1               8'025.5           23'674.3
                                                                                                                                                       Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY        2'386.0            685.7            973.0              825.4            669.3               (27.6)          162'463.0             400.5                  475.2            3'908.7
                                  LTM         2'386.0            863.4            973.1              817.7         (1'441.5)              (27.6)          162'463.0             371.4                      -            3'877.9
                                 CY+1           358.0                 -         1'202.8              942.0                 -                   -          172'941.0             253.1                      -            2'115.3
                                 CY+2                -                -         1'084.3            1'072.5                 -                   -          178'263.0             403.0                      -            2'275.9
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY            2.0x            23.7x             3.4x               1.9x                 -             -12.5x                 0.6x             13.0x                      -              5.9x
                                  LTM             2.0x            26.6x             4.1x               1.9x                 -                   -                0.6x             14.0x                      -              5.9x
                                 CY+1                 -                -                -             -2.9x                 -                   -                    -                -                      -                  -
                                 CY+2                 -                -                -             -2.4x                 -                   -                    -                -                      -                  -
EBITDA                             LFY                -                -                -                  -                -                   -          29'524.0             167.8                 (102.3)           4'006.4
                                  LTM                -                -                -                  -                -                   -           29'524.0             170.9                      -            4'704.0
                                 CY+1                -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -           227.0                      -            1'514.5
                                 CY+2                -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -           283.0                      -            1'629.0
EV/EBITDA                          LFY                -                -                -                  -                -                   -                3.4x             31.0x                      -              5.7x
                                  LTM                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -                3.4x             30.5x                      -              5.2x
                                 CY+1                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -                -                      -                  -
                                 CY+2                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -                -                      -                  -
EPS                                LFY            1.19            -0.31             2.81              -3.24           -26.49                0.78            7'629.00              -2.73                      -             -3.00
                                  LTM             1.36            -0.29             2.79              -3.84           -65.35                1.95            7'628.00              -2.72                      -             -0.48
                                 CY+1            0.67                 -            2.65              (0.12)                -                   -           8'652.04              (1.35)                    -               3.75
                                 CY+2           (0.09)                -            2.64               1.23                 -                   -           9'109.42              (0.05)                    -               4.23
P/E                                LFY            7.9x                 -            6.9x                   -                -               5.0x                19.8x                 -                      -                  -
                                  LTM             7.9x                 -            6.9x                   -                -               5.0x                19.8x                 -                      -                  -
                                 CY+1            16.2x                 -            7.3x                   -                -                   -               17.5x                 -                      -             11.2x
                                 CY+2                 -                -            7.3x               7.7x                 -                   -               16.6x                 -                      -              9.9x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year                -         131.8%          (46.5%)            (57.6%)                  -                   -              13.1%            (7.5%)               (77.4%)            (17.0%)
                                5 Year                -                -                -                  -                -                   -              10.6%           (24.5%)                       -                  -
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year                -                -                -                  -                -                   -              34.2%           (24.1%)                       -                  -
                                5 Year                -                -                -                  -                -                   -               4.3%           (32.7%)                       -                  -
EBITDA Margin                     LTM                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -              18.2%             46.0%                       -           114.8%
                                 CY+1                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -           89.7%                       -            71.6%
                                 CY+2                 -                -                -                  -                -                   -                    -           70.2%                       -            71.6%
                                                                                                                                            Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                         132.5%                  -           22.0%            104.9%              0.0%                    -              33.4%            378.7%                951.2%              264.5%     FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / Capital %                         56.8%            126.4%            18.0%             51.2%                  -             147.5%               24.7%             78.0%                 89.2%               72.6%     FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA                                 -                 -                -                 -                 -                   -              2.125x           27.459x                     -              4.887x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA                                   -                 -                -                 -                 -                   -             -4.201x           25.958x                     -              3.515x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense                               -                 -                -                 -                 -                   -             13.783x            0.473x                     -                   -    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
                                                                                                                                                     Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                               B-               NR               A-              CCC+                  -                NR                  AA+                B+                    NR                 BB-     FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                  22.12.2010        30.11.2010      30.11.2011         15.10.2012                  -        16.11.2010           04.02.2010        18.03.2011            04.03.2011         09.03.2012      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating                        Caa1                WR                -              Caa1                  -                WR                  Aa2                B3                    WR                Ba3      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date              19.11.2012        07.04.2011                -        27.02.2013                  -        29.12.2010           04.02.2010        04.10.2012            28.02.2011         08.01.2013      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE



                                                                                                                          Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial analysis - MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance and …

  • 1. 04.03.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: MBI UN MBIA Inc Benchmark: MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance and other forms of credit protection. Currency: New York: MBI, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) The Company also offers investment management services to public finance and structured finance issuers, investors and capital market participants. Sector: Financials Industry: Insurance Year: Telephone 1-914-273-4545 Revenue (M) 2'386 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.mbia.com No of Employees #N/A N/A Corporate 196 Global -1582 Address 113 King Street Armonk, NY 10504 United States Advisory Services 67 Share Price Performance in USD Wind-down Operations -181 Price 10.77 1M Return 25.7% Eliminations -338 52 Week High 12.00 6M Return -2.3% Insurance -1326 52 Week Low 6.78 52 Wk Return 5.3% Investment Management services 52 Wk Beta 1.88 YTD Return 37.2% Credit Ratings Bloomberg HY1 9% S&P B- Date 22.12.2010 Outlook NEG 3% Moody's Caa1 Date - Outlook DEVELOP Fitch NR Date 26.06.2008 Outlook - 9% Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E - 4.1x 5.5x 6.6x 16.2x - - EV/EBIT - - - - - - - 16% EV/EBITDA - - - - - - - 63% P/S 0.3x 2.9x - 0.6x 5.8x - - P/B 0.3x 0.8x 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x - Div Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - - - 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Corporate Gross Margin - - - - - - - EBITDA Margin - - - - - - - Advisory Services Operating Margin 35.3 27.4 - 79.1 - - - Wind-down Operations Profit Margin 23.6 6.3 - 51.7 26.9 - - Global Return on Assets 2.3 0.2 -4.5 5.1 - - - Eliminations Return on Equity 34.2 1.9 -58.2 50.6 - - - Insurance Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 195.7 EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 2076.0 Tot Debt/Capital 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 Cash and ST Investments (M) 990.0 Tot Debt/Equity 4.2 5.8 3.2 1.3 Total Debt (M) 4204.0 Eff Tax Rate % 47.9 - - 22.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 21.0 Enterprise Value (M) 5311.0 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings MBIA Inc Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 25 25 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 20 20 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15 60% 15 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 10 40% 80% 10 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 5 20% 5 0 MKM Partners S&P Capital IQ Pressprich & BTIG LLC Dimensions 0% 0 EVA R.W. Co mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 28-Feb-13 80% 0% 20% 4-Mar-13 10.77 16.50 BTIG LLC MARK PALMER buy 22.50 1-Mar-13 31-Jan-13 75% 0% 25% 1-Mar-13 10.31 16.50 S&P Capital IQ CATHY SEIFERT sell 9.00 28-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 75% 0% 25% 28-Feb-13 9.67 16.50 MKM Partners HARRY FONG buy 18.00 28-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 75% 0% 25% 27-Feb-13 9.98 20.25 EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT buy 28-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 100% 0% 0% 26-Feb-13 9.90 20.25 R.W. Pressprich & Co BRIAN CHARLES speculative buy 27-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 100% 0% 0% 25-Feb-13 9.86 20.25 31-Aug-12 100% 0% 0% 22-Feb-13 10.10 20.25 31-Jul-12 75% 0% 25% 21-Feb-13 10.23 20.25 29-Jun-12 75% 0% 25% 20-Feb-13 10.41 20.25 31-May-12 75% 0% 25% 19-Feb-13 10.92 20.25 30-Apr-12 100% 0% 0% 18-Feb-13 10.73 20.25 30-Mar-12 100% 0% 0% 15-Feb-13 10.73 20.25 14-Feb-13 10.95 20.25 13-Feb-13 10.53 20.25 12-Feb-13 10.50 20.25 11-Feb-13 10.47 20.25 8-Feb-13 10.20 20.25 7-Feb-13 10.14 20.25 6-Feb-13 10.41 20.25 5-Feb-13 8.83 20.25 4-Feb-13 8.57 20.25 1-Feb-13 8.73 20.25 31-Jan-13 8.61 20.25 30-Jan-13 8.66 20.25 29-Jan-13 8.34 20.25 28-Jan-13 8.12 20.25 25-Jan-13 8.42 20.25 24-Jan-13 8.28 20.25 23-Jan-13 8.55 20.25 22-Jan-13 8.63 20.25 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 04.03.2013 MBIA Inc Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 3% 3% Shares Outstanding (M) 195.7 United States 91.00% Float 73.3% Unknown Country 2.83% 1% 1%1% 1% 1% 3% Short Interest (M) 13.0 Britain 2.82% 2% Short Interest as % of Float 9.05% Bermuda 0.80% Days to Cover Shorts 3.44 Canada 0.62% Institutional Ownership 94.10% Norway 0.60% Retail Ownership 3.17% Germany 0.58% Insider Ownership 2.74% Others 0.77% Institutional Ownership Distribution 90% 94% Investment Advisor 56.80% Private Equity 24.73% Hedge Fund Manager 12.23% United States Unknown Country Britain Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Individual 2.83% Bermuda Canada Norway Pricing data is in USD Others 3.42% Germany Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country WARBURG PINCUS LLC 46'159'252 0 497'135'144 23.95% 02.01.2013 Form 4 UNITED STATES 3% 3% WARBURG PINCUS LLC 46'159'252 0 497'135'144 23.95% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MA 42'495'420 -1'791'750 457'675'673 22.05% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 12% DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 9'898'469 483'380 106'606'511 5.14% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES THE LONDON COMPANY 9'742'153 545'324 104'922'988 5.05% 31.01.2013 13G UNITED STATES VANGUARD GROUP INC 7'686'354 273'007 82'782'033 3.99% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 57% MARATHON ASSET MANAG 4'879'411 -2'782'397 52'551'256 2.53% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN BLACKROCK 4'835'478 398'338 52'078'098 2.51% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 25% BLACKSTONE 4'306'398 3'542'293 46'379'906 2.23% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG ELM RIDGE MANAGEMENT 3'923'432 -1'783'847 42'255'363 2.04% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES KAHN BROTHERS GROUP 2'981'590 40'849 32'111'724 1.55% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP 2'810'625 2'405'219 30'270'431 1.46% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES STATE STREET 2'197'738 74'843 23'669'638 1.14% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO 2'173'700 1'709'700 23'410'749 1.13% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Investment Advisor Private Equity Hedge Fund Manager Individual Others SUSQUEHANNA INTERNAT 1'700'508 100'364 18'314'471 0.88% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES QVT FINANCIAL LP 1'605'654 0 17'292'894 0.83% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES TOUCHSTONE ADVISORS 1'530'804 81'640 16'486'759 0.79% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES CATLIN GROUP LTD 1'500'000 1'500'000 16'155'000 0.78% 31.12.2012 13F BERMUDA BROWN JR JOSEPH W 1'452'456 0 15'642'951 0.75% 18.02.2013 Form 4 n/a SG AMERICAS SECURITI 1'406'554 1'406'554 15'148'587 0.73% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source BROWN JR JOSEPH W 1'452'456 15'642'951 0.75% 18.02.2013 Form 4 FALLON WILLIAM C 1'005'281 600'000 10'826'876 0.52% 21.12.2012 Form 4 CHAPLIN CHARLES EDWARD 999'221 600'000 10'761'610 0.52% 21.12.2012 Form 4 MCKIERNAN ANTHONY 562'210 400'000 6'055'002 0.29% 21.12.2012 Form 4 WERTHEIM RAM D 476'246 400'000 5'129'169 0.25% 21.12.2012 Form 4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV MBIA Inc Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 1'464 1'869 2'054 2'303 2'712 -284 -1'267 2'685 833 -1'582 2'386 358 - Cost of Goods Sold Gross Income - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 103 111 120 172 94 1'413 929 475 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income 1'165 1'519 1'661 1'840 2'315 -2'903 -3'895 947 228 -1'902 1'888 - Interest Expense 372 371 488 822 1'182 163 243 384 363 339 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 -410 -269 -61 -26 -49 Pretax Income 793 1'149 1'173 1'017 1'133 -3'066 -3'727 1'217 -95 -2'239 1'598 84 -50 - Income Tax Expense 206 335 332 304 320 -1'144 -1'055 583 -148 -920 364 Income Before XO Items 587 814 840 713 813 -1'922 -2'673 634 53 -1'319 1'234 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 8 0 -3 2 -6 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 3.98 5.61 5.80 5.20 5.95 (15.17) (12.29) 2.99 0.26 (6.69) 6.33 Net Income Adjusted* 630 0 0 764 788 193 -1'259 -1'245 0 1'234 96 -17 EPS Adjusted 4.27 4.80 5.32 5.56 5.81 1.52 (5.79) (6.04) 0.26 6.33 0.67 (0.09) Dividends Per Share 0.68 0.80 0.96 1.12 1.24 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Payout Ratio % 17.0 14.2 16.3 21.1 20.4 0.0 0.0 Total Shares Outstanding 145 144 139 133 135 125 208 205 200 193 196 Diluted Shares Outstanding 148 145 145 137 137 127 218 208 203 197 195 EBITDA *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items 83 182 366 233 269 264 2'280 803 1'130 633 990 + Short Term Investments 16'215 18'367 22'085 25'425 30'716 35'054 16'416 12'663 16'547 11'359 7'758 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 351 351 414 530 651 783 1'160 5'668 6'464 6'563 6'757 + Inventories + Other Current Assets Total Long-Term Assets + Long Term Investments 17'095 27'707 30'618 32'155 37'077 42'066 20'639 16'608 21'545 16'929 12'137 Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation 302 320 406 427 450 473 561 470 412 351 302 + Net Fixed Assets 128 123 115 109 106 104 105 77 71 69 69 + Other Long Term Assets 892 1'585 1'117 1'107 1'210 3'726 4'286 2'076 2'657 2'328 1'469 Total Current Liabilities + Accounts Payable + Short Term Borrowings 0 7'905 11'336 11'725 13'270 18'327 6'459 5'924 12'660 1'578 944 + Other Short Term Liabilities 616 567 742 730 496 1'220 857 5'371 7'275 6'399 3'096 Total Long Term Liabilities + Long Term Borrowings 8'264 9'862 8'877 10'033 13'619 14'056 8'736 4'942 3'950 3'856 3'260 + Other Long Term Borrowings 1'151 2'035 1'563 1'575 1'508 5'671 6'975 322 273 8'966 7'439 Total Liabilities 13'359 24'009 26'477 27'970 32'559 43'759 28'008 23'094 29'433 25'150 18'530 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 17 14 23 21 + Share Capital & APIC 1'392 1'449 1'566 1'636 1'691 1'810 3'324 3'333 3'339 3'347 3'353 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 4'101 4'810 4'992 4'956 5'513 1'846 -2'329 -742 -506 -1'647 -180 Total Shareholders Equity 5'493 6'259 6'559 6'592 7'204 3'656 1'022 2'607 2'846 1'723 3'194 Total Liabilities & Equity 18'852 30'268 33'036 34'561 39'763 47'415 29'030 25'701 32'279 26'873 21'724 Book Value Per Share 37.94 43.50 47.05 49.54 53.43 29.16 4.78 12.66 14.18 8.80 16.22 23.80 26.71 Tangible Book Value Per Share 37.32 42.88 46.48 48.95 52.84 28.53 4.41 12.50 14.02 8.80 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income 579 814 843 711 819 -1'922 -2'673 634 53 -1'319 96 -17 + Depreciation & Amortization 14 11 14 12 9 10 10 9 8 7 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 25 43 -103 100 -54 -1'130 2'146 -164 -903 -1'141 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 255 110 128 -37 -110 4'064 361 -2'671 -414 -523 Cash From Operating Activities 873 979 881 785 664 1'022 -156 -2'192 -1'256 -2'976 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 1 2 2 0 4 0 0 3 0 + Capital Expenditures -15 -11 -9 -9 -11 -12 -11 -6 -5 -5 + Increase in Investments -19'971 -27'852 -26'810 -17'060 -23'020 -33'209 -15'353 -10'689 -10'124 -7'744 + Decrease in Investments 18'068 23'989 24'484 14'880 18'222 26'904 33'455 15'671 14'227 12'561 + Other Investing Activities 22 2 2 0 0 910 -517 Cash From Investing Activities -1'919 -3'873 -2'310 -2'187 -4'807 -6'311 18'091 4'977 5'011 4'295 + Dividends Paid -97 -111 -132 -147 -163 -173 -43 -10 -1 0 + Change in Short Term Borrowings -64 1'527 115 -1'750 -652 1'139 -899 -284 -424 -249 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 4'788 5'732 9'543 11'614 14'051 16'113 4'769 603 122 237 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -3'421 -4'094 -7'644 -8'090 -8'997 -11'084 -21'674 -4'521 -3'067 -1'761 + Increase in Capital Stocks 19 26 63 23 48 46 2'035 0 0 0 + Decrease in Capital Stocks -209 -82 -375 -370 -61 -739 -221 -16 -31 -50 + Other Financing Activities -3 -4 -2 -3 -29 -19 114 -34 -27 7 Cash From Financing Activities 1'014 2'993 1'568 1'277 4'197 5'283 -15'919 -4'261 -3'428 -1'816 Net Changes in Cash -32 99 139 -125 54 -6 2'016 -1'477 327 -497 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 858 968 873 776 653 1'010 -167 -2'198 -1'261 -2'981 Free Cash Flow To Firm 1'133 1'230 1'223 1'353 1'501 Free Cash Flow To Equity 4'133 2'889 2'552 5'055 7'181 -17'971 -6'410 -4'627 -4'754 Free Cash Flow per Share 5.85 6.75 6.15 5.79 4.91 7.97 -0.77 -10.56 -6.23 -15.13 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 11.9x 12.3x 11.8x 11.5x 12.6x 18.4x 4.1x 5.5x 6.6x 16.2x EV to EBIT EV to EBITDA Price to Sales 4.4x 4.5x 4.4x 3.5x 3.6x 0.3x 2.9x 0.6x 5.8x Price to Book 1.2x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.4x 0.6x 0.9x 0.3x 0.8x 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x Dividend Yield 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin EBITDA Margin - - - Operating Margin 79.5% 81.3% 80.8% 79.9% 85.4% 35.3% 27.4% 79.1% Profit Margin 39.5% 43.5% 41.0% 30.9% 30.2% 23.6% 6.3% 51.7% 26.9% Return on Assets 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 2.2% -4.4% -7.0% 2.3% 0.2% -4.5% 5.1% Return on Equity 11.3% 13.8% 13.2% 10.8% 11.9% -35.4% -114.9% 34.2% 1.9% -58.2% 50.6% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) Tot Debt/Capital 0.60 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.90 0.94 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.57 Tot Debt/Equity 1.50 2.84 3.08 3.30 3.73 8.86 14.87 4.17 5.84 3.15 1.32 Others Asset Turnover 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.07 -0.01 -0.03 0.10 0.03 -0.05 0.10 Accounts Receivable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Inventory Turnover Effective Tax Rate 26.0% 29.2% 28.3% 29.9% 28.2% 47.9% 22.8% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision AMBAC FINL ASSURED RADIAN GROUP SYNCORA PRIMUS BERKSHIRE HATH- CAPMARK MBIA INC ISTAR FINANCIAL CIT GROUP INC GROUP GUARANTY INC HOLDINGS GUARANTY A FINANCIA Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2008 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2008 12/2012 52-Week High 12.00 0.06 20.19 9.81 1.11 9.74 153'738.88 10.75 20.00 43.90 52-Week High Date 14.09.2012 06.02.2013 19.02.2013 04.03.2013 18.10.2012 27.02.2013 28.02.2013 15.02.2013 21.12.2012 29.01.2013 52-Week Low 6.78 0.01 11.17 2.00 0.12 5.94 117'422.00 5.37 8.85 32.29 52-Week Low Date 13.11.2012 15.03.2012 04.06.2012 18.05.2012 16.08.2012 06.03.2012 05.03.2012 05.06.2012 08.03.2012 01.06.2012 Daily Volume 187'326 165'327 445'174 7'458'422 130 830 354 499'771 55'000 105'540 Current Price (3/dd/yy) 10.77 0.04 19.20 9.50 0.45 9.72 151'149.00 10.15 12.20 42.01 52-Week High % Change -10.2% -37.7% -4.9% -3.2% -59.5% -0.2% -1.7% -5.6% -39.0% -4.3% 52-Week Low % Change 58.8% 218.4% 71.9% 375.0% 275.0% 63.6% 28.7% 89.0% 37.8% 30.1% Total Common Shares (M) 195.7 302.4 182.2 133.6 35.1 34.8 1.6 83.8 - 200.9 Market Capitalization 2'076.0 11.7 3'730.2 1'593.5 29.3 266.4 248'302.8 849.0 1'220.0 8'447.2 Total Debt 4'204.0 15'058.7 1'038.3 772.4 - 172.3 62'736.0 4'691.5 11'593.6 22'043.7 Preferred Stock - - - - 0.0 90.1 - 545.0 - - Minority Interest 21.0 663.4 - - 20.0 - 3'941.0 87.9 186.4 4.7 Cash and Equivalents 990.0 20.6 214.5 31.6 1'574.1 87.2 186'759.0 256.3 874.4 6'821.3 Enterprise Value 5'311.0 16'258.5 4'437.2 2'334.4 - 386.2 128'220.8 5'372.1 8'025.5 23'674.3 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 2'386.0 685.7 973.0 825.4 669.3 (27.6) 162'463.0 400.5 475.2 3'908.7 LTM 2'386.0 863.4 973.1 817.7 (1'441.5) (27.6) 162'463.0 371.4 - 3'877.9 CY+1 358.0 - 1'202.8 942.0 - - 172'941.0 253.1 - 2'115.3 CY+2 - - 1'084.3 1'072.5 - - 178'263.0 403.0 - 2'275.9 EV/Total Revenue LFY 2.0x 23.7x 3.4x 1.9x - -12.5x 0.6x 13.0x - 5.9x LTM 2.0x 26.6x 4.1x 1.9x - - 0.6x 14.0x - 5.9x CY+1 - - - -2.9x - - - - - - CY+2 - - - -2.4x - - - - - - EBITDA LFY - - - - - - 29'524.0 167.8 (102.3) 4'006.4 LTM - - - - - - 29'524.0 170.9 - 4'704.0 CY+1 - - - - - - - 227.0 - 1'514.5 CY+2 - - - - - - - 283.0 - 1'629.0 EV/EBITDA LFY - - - - - - 3.4x 31.0x - 5.7x LTM - - - - - - 3.4x 30.5x - 5.2x CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - EPS LFY 1.19 -0.31 2.81 -3.24 -26.49 0.78 7'629.00 -2.73 - -3.00 LTM 1.36 -0.29 2.79 -3.84 -65.35 1.95 7'628.00 -2.72 - -0.48 CY+1 0.67 - 2.65 (0.12) - - 8'652.04 (1.35) - 3.75 CY+2 (0.09) - 2.64 1.23 - - 9'109.42 (0.05) - 4.23 P/E LFY 7.9x - 6.9x - - 5.0x 19.8x - - - LTM 7.9x - 6.9x - - 5.0x 19.8x - - - CY+1 16.2x - 7.3x - - - 17.5x - - 11.2x CY+2 - - 7.3x 7.7x - - 16.6x - - 9.9x Revenue Growth 1 Year - 131.8% (46.5%) (57.6%) - - 13.1% (7.5%) (77.4%) (17.0%) 5 Year - - - - - - 10.6% (24.5%) - - EBITDA Growth 1 Year - - - - - - 34.2% (24.1%) - - 5 Year - - - - - - 4.3% (32.7%) - - EBITDA Margin LTM - - - - - - 18.2% 46.0% - 114.8% CY+1 - - - - - - - 89.7% - 71.6% CY+2 - - - - - - - 70.2% - 71.6% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 132.5% - 22.0% 104.9% 0.0% - 33.4% 378.7% 951.2% 264.5% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / Capital % 56.8% 126.4% 18.0% 51.2% - 147.5% 24.7% 78.0% 89.2% 72.6% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / EBITDA - - - - - - 2.125x 27.459x - 4.887x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Net Debt / EBITDA - - - - - - -4.201x 25.958x - 3.515x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - - - 13.783x 0.473x - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating B- NR A- CCC+ - NR AA+ B+ NR BB- FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE S&P LT Credit Rating Date 22.12.2010 30.11.2010 30.11.2011 15.10.2012 - 16.11.2010 04.02.2010 18.03.2011 04.03.2011 09.03.2012 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating Caa1 WR - Caa1 - WR Aa2 B3 WR Ba3 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 19.11.2012 07.04.2011 - 27.02.2013 - 29.12.2010 04.02.2010 04.10.2012 28.02.2011 08.01.2013 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |