FDL 2017 Solar Storm Prediction Presentation

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SPACE WEATHER MISSION02 SOLAR STORM PREDICTION

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION What are Solar Flares? FLARES Agents Short wavelength EM radiation Effects Ionisation and heating of upper atmosphere Impacts GPS and HF communication

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Why Solar Flare prediction is important? FLARES Speed of Light No warning Agents Short wavelength EM radiation Effects Ionisation and heating of upper atmosphere Impacts GPS and HF communication

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION How does NOAA forecast flares? 5 Sunspot morphology and Persistence (assume the Sun does not change)

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Goal Develop a solar flare forecasting model capable of warning stakeholders at least an hour in advance.

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Target Breakthroughs 1. Dataset Preparation: Satellites->useful data 2. Software: Build scientific process 3. Prediction: Beat Persistence 4. Science: Visualize Results • Discover Flare Precursors • Providing new physical insight • New Physics?

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory 9

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION SDO/AIA Image Channels Hotter and Higher Photosphere Chromosphere Corona Hot Corona

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION SDO/AIA Image Channels Goal: Use AIA to forecast GOES X-ray flux 1 hr Ahead

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Target Breakthroughs 1. Dataset Preparation: Satellites->useful data 2. Software: Build scientific process 3. Prediction: Beat Persistence 4. Science: Visualize Results • Discover Flare Precursors • Providing new physical insight • New Physics? Challenges 1. Instrument Issues: Corrections 2. Class imbalance: Oversampling 3. High dynamic range: Log Transform

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Preprocessing

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Preprocessing - Log AIA Data Distribution AIA log(Data) Distribution

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Preprocessing - Log

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Preprocessing - PCA

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Dimensionality Reduction - PCA The 3 RGB channels in this image contain 97% of the information from the 8 AIA channels

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Target Breakthroughs 1. Dataset Preparation: Satellites->useful data 2. Software: Build scientific process 3. Prediction: Beat Persistence 4. Science: Visualize Results • Discover Flare Precursors • Providing new physical insight • New Physics? Components 1. Analysis of Magnetic Complexity 2. Deep Learning

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Our Fractal Sun

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Our Fractal Sun

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Connecting the Sun 100G b 150G y 200Ga x a,x b,y 100G a,y 200G 150G

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Network Centrality

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Eigenvalue Centrality -4H

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Eigenvalue Centrality -2H

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Eigenvalue Centrality Flare

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Eigenvalue Centrality +2H

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Eigenvalue Centrality +4H

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Flare Detection from Topology -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 +2 +2 +4 +4 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 +2 +2 +4 +4

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Flare Detection from Topology -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 +2 +2 +4 +4 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 +2 +2 +4 +4 We know the information is there! Let’s bring deep learning into the picture!

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Deep Learning cs231n.github.io/classification

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Deep Learning cs231n.github.io/classification

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Deep Learning cs231n.github.io/classification X-Ray Flux 3.2x10-5 W m-2

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Deep Learning

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Deep Learning: Convolutional Networks

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION FlareNet

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Solar Flare Forecast We faced many challenges...

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Solar Flare Forecast 10:31 PM last night...

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Solar Flare Forecast

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Solar Flare Forecast FlareNet is able to produce an upper level of X-ray flux activity!

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Solar Flare Forecast ...but why?

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Analysis Scripts: Saliency Simonyan, K., Vedaldi, A., & Zisserman, A. (2013). Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps.

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Analysis Scripts: Saliency Simonyan, K., Vedaldi, A., & Zisserman, A. (2013). Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps. ?

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Analysis Scripts: Saliency

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION FlareNet Block 2 Filter 8 Texture Block 3 Filter 7 Structure

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION FlareNet Block 2 Filter 8 Texture Block 3 Filter 7 Structure Not just any structure! FlareNet learned the importance of active regions

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION ACHIEVEMENTS • DIMENSIONALITY REDUCTION • TOPOLOGICAL MODEL OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD • TRAINED CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK • A FLARE FORECASTING TOOL

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION ACHIEVEMENTS

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION AKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION PREDICTING THE SUN

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SPACE WEATHER: SOLARSTORM PREDICTION Questions

FDL 2017 Solar Storm Prediction Presentation

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