This document discusses various methods for determining future population sizes for water supply and treatment projects, including analytical, graphical, and rational methods. The analytical methods covered include the arithmetic, geometric, simple interest, compound interest, quadratic, and logistic/saturation methods. Graphical methods include simple projection graphs and comparative graphs. The rational method involves socioeconomic studies of births, deaths, immigration, emigration, and floating populations. Examples are provided for several of the analytical methods.
Calculating future population using Population forecasting methodsManoj Mota
To estimate the future population using various methods of population forecasting,
Arithmetic Increase method
Geometric Increase Method
Incremental Increase Method
Decrease Rate of Increase Method
Simple Graphical Method
Comparative Graphical Method
The Master Plan Method or Zoning Method
Logistic Curve method
This presentation goes into brief about how the population of a given locality can be measured using population measuring tools. Also, it gives a brief about the different methods of population forecasting like Arithmetic Increase Method, Geometrical increase method, MASTER PLAN METHOD, LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD etc. with some numerical problem.
It explains the types and terminologies of the methods of population forecasting.
In this report, I shall shade the light on methods of population studies, apply on an example and compare between results to find which one is most accurate
Population Forecasting Methods
Population Forecasting consists of mathematical models which are used to analyse changes in population numbers.
There are several factors affecting changes in population:
Increase due to births
Decrease due to deaths
Increase/Decrease due to migration
Increase due to annexation
All the above data can be obtained from the census population records.
Population forecasting is an integral part of design. It is essential to take into account the population at the end of the design period.
Fundamental to planning (Assumptions and estimates used in determining water, sewage flow have a permanent effect on planning decisions and outcomes)
Premature and excessive investments in works
System failure and hence increasing customer complaints
Environmental impact
Essential to service provider so as to know the spare capacity of the system
Identification of weak links of system, Ability to accept new/unexpected demands
BY BAJKANI UWAIS {MUET
Calculating future population using Population forecasting methodsManoj Mota
To estimate the future population using various methods of population forecasting,
Arithmetic Increase method
Geometric Increase Method
Incremental Increase Method
Decrease Rate of Increase Method
Simple Graphical Method
Comparative Graphical Method
The Master Plan Method or Zoning Method
Logistic Curve method
This presentation goes into brief about how the population of a given locality can be measured using population measuring tools. Also, it gives a brief about the different methods of population forecasting like Arithmetic Increase Method, Geometrical increase method, MASTER PLAN METHOD, LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD etc. with some numerical problem.
It explains the types and terminologies of the methods of population forecasting.
In this report, I shall shade the light on methods of population studies, apply on an example and compare between results to find which one is most accurate
Population Forecasting Methods
Population Forecasting consists of mathematical models which are used to analyse changes in population numbers.
There are several factors affecting changes in population:
Increase due to births
Decrease due to deaths
Increase/Decrease due to migration
Increase due to annexation
All the above data can be obtained from the census population records.
Population forecasting is an integral part of design. It is essential to take into account the population at the end of the design period.
Fundamental to planning (Assumptions and estimates used in determining water, sewage flow have a permanent effect on planning decisions and outcomes)
Premature and excessive investments in works
System failure and hence increasing customer complaints
Environmental impact
Essential to service provider so as to know the spare capacity of the system
Identification of weak links of system, Ability to accept new/unexpected demands
BY BAJKANI UWAIS {MUET
This presentation goes into brief about how the population of a given locality can be measured using population measuring tools also it gives a brief about the different methods of population forecasting.
It explains the types and terminologies of the methods of population forecasting.
Write a program in c++ that produces a bar chart showing the populat.pdfconnellalykshamesb60
Write a program in c++ that produces a bar chart showing the population growth of Prairieville, a
small town in the Midwest, at 20-year intervals during the past 100 years.
The program will take input from user for population figures (rounded to the nearest 1,000
people) for 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960, 1980, and 2000. For each year it should display the date and
a bar consisting of one asterisk for each 1,000 people.
Here is an example of how the chart might begin:
PRAIRIEVILLE POPULATION GROWTH
(each * represents 1,000 people)
1900 **
1920 ****
1940 *****
After the bar chart, print out the maximum, minimum and average number of population.
Solution
#include
using namespace std;
int main()
{
int year[6]={1900,1920,1940,1960,1980,2000};
long population[6],calc[6];
int i,j;
cout<<\"Enter the population for years\";
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
cin>>population[i]; //input years
}
cout << endl << \"PRAIRIEVILLE POPULATION GROWTH\";
cout << endl << \"(each * represents 1,000 people) \" << endl;
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
calc[i]= population[i]/1000; //calcualte population per 1000 persons
}
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
cout << \"\ \"<.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
About
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
Technical Specifications
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
Key Features
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system
• Copatiable with IDM8000 CCR
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
Application
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
Courier management system project report.pdfKamal Acharya
It is now-a-days very important for the people to send or receive articles like imported furniture, electronic items, gifts, business goods and the like. People depend vastly on different transport systems which mostly use the manual way of receiving and delivering the articles. There is no way to track the articles till they are received and there is no way to let the customer know what happened in transit, once he booked some articles. In such a situation, we need a system which completely computerizes the cargo activities including time to time tracking of the articles sent. This need is fulfilled by Courier Management System software which is online software for the cargo management people that enables them to receive the goods from a source and send them to a required destination and track their status from time to time.
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Forklift Classes Overview by Intella PartsIntella Parts
Discover the different forklift classes and their specific applications. Learn how to choose the right forklift for your needs to ensure safety, efficiency, and compliance in your operations.
For more technical information, visit our website https://intellaparts.com
This presentation goes into brief about how the population of a given locality can be measured using population measuring tools also it gives a brief about the different methods of population forecasting.
It explains the types and terminologies of the methods of population forecasting.
Write a program in c++ that produces a bar chart showing the populat.pdfconnellalykshamesb60
Write a program in c++ that produces a bar chart showing the population growth of Prairieville, a
small town in the Midwest, at 20-year intervals during the past 100 years.
The program will take input from user for population figures (rounded to the nearest 1,000
people) for 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960, 1980, and 2000. For each year it should display the date and
a bar consisting of one asterisk for each 1,000 people.
Here is an example of how the chart might begin:
PRAIRIEVILLE POPULATION GROWTH
(each * represents 1,000 people)
1900 **
1920 ****
1940 *****
After the bar chart, print out the maximum, minimum and average number of population.
Solution
#include
using namespace std;
int main()
{
int year[6]={1900,1920,1940,1960,1980,2000};
long population[6],calc[6];
int i,j;
cout<<\"Enter the population for years\";
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
cin>>population[i]; //input years
}
cout << endl << \"PRAIRIEVILLE POPULATION GROWTH\";
cout << endl << \"(each * represents 1,000 people) \" << endl;
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
calc[i]= population[i]/1000; //calcualte population per 1000 persons
}
for(i=0;i<6;i++)
{
cout << \"\ \"<.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
About
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
Technical Specifications
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
Key Features
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system
• Copatiable with IDM8000 CCR
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
Application
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
Courier management system project report.pdfKamal Acharya
It is now-a-days very important for the people to send or receive articles like imported furniture, electronic items, gifts, business goods and the like. People depend vastly on different transport systems which mostly use the manual way of receiving and delivering the articles. There is no way to track the articles till they are received and there is no way to let the customer know what happened in transit, once he booked some articles. In such a situation, we need a system which completely computerizes the cargo activities including time to time tracking of the articles sent. This need is fulfilled by Courier Management System software which is online software for the cargo management people that enables them to receive the goods from a source and send them to a required destination and track their status from time to time.
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Forklift Classes Overview by Intella PartsIntella Parts
Discover the different forklift classes and their specific applications. Learn how to choose the right forklift for your needs to ensure safety, efficiency, and compliance in your operations.
For more technical information, visit our website https://intellaparts.com
Event Management System Vb Net Project Report.pdfKamal Acharya
In present era, the scopes of information technology growing with a very fast .We do not see any are untouched from this industry. The scope of information technology has become wider includes: Business and industry. Household Business, Communication, Education, Entertainment, Science, Medicine, Engineering, Distance Learning, Weather Forecasting. Carrier Searching and so on.
My project named “Event Management System” is software that store and maintained all events coordinated in college. It also helpful to print related reports. My project will help to record the events coordinated by faculties with their Name, Event subject, date & details in an efficient & effective ways.
In my system we have to make a system by which a user can record all events coordinated by a particular faculty. In our proposed system some more featured are added which differs it from the existing system such as security.
Vaccine management system project report documentation..pdfKamal Acharya
The Division of Vaccine and Immunization is facing increasing difficulty monitoring vaccines and other commodities distribution once they have been distributed from the national stores. With the introduction of new vaccines, more challenges have been anticipated with this additions posing serious threat to the already over strained vaccine supply chain system in Kenya.
2. FACULTAD: Ingeniería
ESCUELA: Ingeniería Civil
ALUMNO:
- Cruz Rodríguez James
AÑO DEL BICENTENARIO DEL PERÚ: 200 AÑOS DE INDEPENDENCIA
UNIVERSIDAD PRIVADA SAN PEDRO
3. INTRODUCCION
Uno de los factores más importantes en un proyecto de abastecimiento de
agua viene a ser el número de personas beneficiadas con éste, es decir la
población, la cual se determina estadísticamente proyectada hacia el futuro
(población futura).
La población actual se determina en base a los datos proporcionados por el
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas e Informática (INEI), tomando en cuenta los
últimos tres censos disponibles para el proyecto hasta el año de realización de
los estudios y proyectos.
4. Los censos se determinan a partir de estas consideraciones, llevándose
a cabo aproximadamente cada 10-12 años por el INEI.
Estos datos censales son utilizados, en la aplicación de los métodos de
cálculo poblacional.
Para el calculo poblacional de un sistema de abastecimiento de agua, se
debe conocer el periodo de diseño.
5. Los métodos más utilizados en la estimación de la población futura son:
1.- Métodos Analíticos
Aritmético
Geométrido
Interés Simple
Interés Compuesto
Parábola de Segundo Grado
Incrementos Variables
Logístico o Saturación
2.- Métodos Gráficos
Gráfico Simple o de proyección Gráfico
Comparativo
3.- Método Racional
METODOS DE CALCULO POBLACIONAL
6. Métodos Analíticos
Suponen que el cálculo de la población para una región dada es ajustable una
curva matemática. Es evidente que este ajuste dependerá de las características
de los valores de población censada, así como de los intervalos de tiempo en
que éstos se han medido.
Métodos Gráficos
Son aquellosque mediante procedimientos gráficos estiman valores de
población, ya sea en función de datos censales anteriores de la región o
considerando los datos de poblaciones de crecimiento similar a la que se está
estudiando.
Método Racional
En este caso para determinar la población, se realiza un estudio socio-
económico del lugar considerando el crecimiento vegetativo que es en función
de los nacimientos, defunciones, inmigraciones, emigraciones y población
flotante.
7.
8. Método Aritmético
Este método supone que el crecimiento de la población varia una
progresión aritmética, de acuerdo a la fórmula siguiente:
Donde:
Pf = Población futura.
P = Población inicial.
r = Tasa de crecimiento
t = Tiempo en años comprendido entre Pf y Po
n = Número de datos de la información censal
El valor de r, se puede calcular con los datos recopilados en el estudio
de campo así mismo también de la información censal de periodos
anteriores.
9. Ejemplo:
Determinar para 1,950 la población de una cuidad «X» si se tiene los
siguientes datos censales.
SOLUCION:
=> P = 1125 + 155.98 (1950 – 1940)
P = 2,685 hab.
Año Población (hab)
1,940
1,960
1,970
1,980
1,125
3,250
4,970
5,867
10. Método Geométrico
La población crece en forma semejante a un capital puesto a un interés
compuesto. Este método se emplea cuando la población esta en su
iniciación o periodo de saturación mas no cuando esta en el periodo de
franco crecimiento.
Pf = Población futura.
P = Población inicial.
r = Tasa de crecimiento
t = Tiempo en años comprendido entre Pf y Po
n = Número de datos de la información censal
11. Ejemplo:
Se requiere calculas la población para el año 2,000 de una cuidad «X»
que tiene los siguientes datos censales.
SOLUCION:
=> P = 120,000 * 1.021(2000−1980)
𝑃2000 = 181,843 hab.
Año Población(hab)
1,940
1,950
1,960
1,970
1,980
53,000
72,000
85,000
92,000
120,000
12. Método de Interés Simple
Este método da valores bajos es decir aplicable para poblaciones que se
encuentran en proceso de franco crecimiento por que se trata de que la
población crece como un capital sujeto a un interés simple :
Donde:
P= Población a calcular
Po= Población inicial
r = Factor de cambio de las poblaciones.
t = Tiempo en que se calcula la población
to = Tiempo final.
13. Ejemplo:
Calculas la población para el año 2,000 de una cuidad «X» que tiene los
siguientes datos censales.
SOLUCION:
=> P = 175,000(1+0.0371*20)
𝑃2000 =304,850 hab.
Año Población(hab)
1,950
1,960
1,970
1,980
68,000
92,000
130,000
175,000
14. Método de Incrementos Variables
Este método basado en las diferenciación numérica para generar un
polinomio de interpolación, se necesitan por lo menos cuatro datos
equidistantes en el tiempo.
Donde :
Pf = Población futura.
Po= Población del último dato censal
m = Número de intervalos entre Pf y Po(décadas)
1P Promedio de los primeros incrementos
2 PPromedio de los segundosincrementos
15. Ejemplo:
Con los datos censales de la población «Z», calcular la poblacion futura
para el año 2,000
SOLUCION
Año 1,940 1,950 1,960 1,970 1,980
Población 53,000 72,000 85,000 92,000 120,000
Año Población P
2P
1,940 53,000 - -
1,950 72,000 19,000 -
1,960 85,000 13,000 -6,000
2,970 92,000 7,000 -6,000
1,980 120,000 28,000 21,000
67,000 9,000
18. Método de la parábola
Este método se usa preferentemente en poblaciones que se encuentran en el
periodo de asentamiento o inicio (solo se escogerán 3 datos censales)
P = Pob. Genérica
A,B,C = Constantes de la parábola
t = Tiempo
19. Ejemplo:
Calcular la población de la cuidad «X» para el año 2,000; según los datos
censales.
Año Población(hab.)
1,950
1,960
1,970
68.000
92,000
130,000
Año Población Δt
1,950
1,960
1,970
68,000
92,000
130,000
0
10
20
20. 68,000 = 02* A+ 0 * B + C A = 70
92,000 = (10)2
* A + (10) * B + C => B = 1,700
130,000= (20)2 * A + (20) * B+C C = 68,000
P = 70 * Δ 𝑡2
+ 1,700 * Δt + 68,000
=>Para el año 2,000 tenemos : Δt = 2,000 – 1,950 = 50 años
𝑃2000 = 70 * 502 + 1,700 * (50) + 68,000
𝑃2000 = 328,000 hab.
21. Método Logístico o de Saturación
Considere que hay un momento en que para con determinado tiempo (propio
de cada país) se logra una población de saturación. Es decir cuyas ciudades
son mayores a 100,000 habitantes, La ecuación que rige el método es el
correspondiente a la reacción química unimolecular.
Pf = Población futura
PS = Población de saturación
t = Tiempo en décadas
a, b = Constantes propias de la ecuación
22. Se requiere de 3 datos equidistantes:
P0 = Pob. En el tiempo t0
d
P1 = Pob. En el tiempo t1
d
P2 = Pob. En el tiempo t2
24. Ejemplo:
Calcular la población para el año 1,990 y 2,000 con los datos
registrados
SOLUCION:
Verificamos condiciones:
120,000 * 272,000 ≤ (198,000)
2
120,000 + 272,000 < 2(198,000)
𝑃𝑠
2 𝑥 120000 𝑥 198000 𝑥 272000 − 198000 2(120000+272000)
120000 𝑥 272000−(198000)2 =372000hab.
Año 1,960 1,970 1,980
Población 120,000 198,000 272,000
25. a = 𝐿𝑛
372000
120000
− 1 a = 0.742
𝑏 = 𝐿𝑛
120000(372000−198000)
198000(372000−120000
b = -0.871
𝑡 =
1990−1960
10
t = 3
𝑃1990 =
372110
1+𝑒0.742−0.871𝑥3 => 322,460 hab.
𝑃20000 =
372110
1+𝑒0.742−0.871𝑥4 => 349,582 hab.
26.
27. Método de los Mínimos Cuadrados
Este método se basa en censos equidistantes en el tiempo a través de la
metodología que se presenta a continuación.
𝑌𝑖 = (𝑋𝑖+1−𝑋𝑖)/𝑋𝑖
Donde:
𝑌𝑖 = Razón de crecimiento ; 𝑋𝑖= Población
28. Método Comparativo
Consiste en calcular la población de una cuidad con respecto a otras que
tengas características similares y crecimientos superiores, Es un
procedimiento grafico.
Método Racional
Este Método depende del criterio del que desarrolla el proyecto. Se hace
un estudio socio-económico del lugar, se toma en cuanta el crecimiento
vegetativo que es en función de los nacimientos, defunciones,
inmigraciones, emigraciones y población flotante.
29. Pf = Población futura en el tiempo t f
Po = Población inicial en el tiempo t o
N = Nacimientos en el intervalo (t f – t o)
D = Defunciones en el intervalo (t f – t o)
I = Inmigración en el intervalo (t f – t o)
E = Emigración en el intervalo (t f – t o)
N – D = Saldo vegetativo
I – E = Saldo migratorio
30.
31. A continuación un Excel preparado ya para calcular la población
futura con algunos de los métodos.