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BPV Capital
Market Update
April
2016
GLOBAL MARKET SUMMARY
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Stabilizing global economy pushed equities, interest rates and commodities higher in April
United States
Economic: Economic data in April came in worse than expected and first
quarter GDP came in at 0.5% versus 0.7% expected.
Business Cycle: As the mid-to-latecycle transition is firmly underway, late
cycle dynamics are beginning to gain momentum.
Equities
US Equities continued their momentum from March and were up another
0.39% in April as earnings season for Q1 2016 is underway. Poor Q1 earnings
growth has so far been overshadowed by an increase in oil prices.
Fixed Income
Both the ECB and Federal Reserve met during the month and relieved
markets with even more dovish rhetoric and projections. Markets are now
expecting the next rate increase in December.
Mortgage Backed Securities
Mortgage Backed Securities outperformed US Treasuries and Swaps across
coupons in both 15yr and 30yr collateral. Prepayment speeds were higher
during the month as expected.
Currencies
The yen strengthened vs the dollar as the BOJ surprised investors by leaving
monetary policy unchanged at their April meeting.
Volatility
The VIX and OVX are near YTD lows and are nearing 2015’s low levels as
equities and oil rallied during the month.
Commodities
OPEC’s meeting resulted in no action being taken at this time, but oil markets
shrugged off this news and instead focused on declining US production,
which is down 7% from a year ago.
Europe
ECB: The ECB met on April 20 and left policy unchanged,but Draghi
maintained a dovish tone in his post-meeting press conference.
Brexit: There is growing uncertainty around the June 23 referendum as polls
are currently split on the decision.
China
Chinese economic data came in much better than expected during the month
and investors are seemingly no longer worried about an economic hard
landing. Theyuan has been stable for two months and traded in a very tight
range in April.
April 2016
CHART OF THE MONTH
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In April, the main underlying theme driving asset class performance
was that the fears of a global recession continued to ease. This can be
seen in the chart by looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the
US, Europe and China.
In the beginning of the year, economic data began missing
expectations in the US, Europe and China. The US began to improve in
February, followed by Europe in March and China in April. The
improvement in Chinese economic data in April was the final data point
needed for investors to become “risk-on”.
The validation that the global economy may still be on solid ground led
to a rebound in commodity prices, an increase in US interest rates and
a continued rise in global equity markets, led by cyclical sectors. It also
resulted in the Fed removing the statement “…global economic and
financial developments continue to pose risks” from the April FOMC
statement.
The solid economic footing is a relief for investors who were fearing
the worst earlier in the year, but investors may not be out of the
woods yet. US economic data has begun to miss expectations in April,
and Q1 GDP came in at a low level of 0.5%.
Fears of global recession are easing
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
CESI - Europe CESI - China CESI - US
EQUITY PERFORMANCE
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Data as of April 29,2016
PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
S&P 500 2,065.30 0.39% 0.39% 1.74% 1.20%
Consumer Discretionary 628.76 0.13% 0.13% 1.74% 6.94%
Consumer Staples 535.63 (1.28%) (1.28%) 4.22% 10.86%
Energy 502.42 8.70% 8.70% 13.07% (13.91%)
Financials 313.64 3.40% 3.40% (1.83%) (1.52%)
Healthcare 806.34 2.93% 2.93% (2.73%) (1.08%)
Industrials 487.65 0.89% 0.89% 5.93% 4.12%
InformationTechnology 696.81 (5.39%) (5.39%) (2.93%) (0.10%)
Materials 295.62 4.95% 4.95% 8.74% (4.30%)
Telecommunications 167.13 (2.11%) (2.11%) 14.15% 9.79%
Utilities 245.76 (2.41%) (2.41%) 12.77% 13.68%
Russell 2000 1,130.85 1.57% 1.57% 0.02% (5.95%)
Europe(Stoxx600) 341.48 1.87% 1.87% (5.24%) (10.81%)
Germany (DAX) 10,038.97 0.74% 0.74% (6.55%) (12.36%)
China (Shanghai Composite) 2,938.32 (2.16%) (2.16%) (16.95%) (32.80%)
Japan (Nikkei) 16,666.05 (0.55%) (0.55%) (11.72%) (13.07%)
FIXED INCOME PERFORMANCE
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1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
Barclay's US Treasury 1-3 YR 0.04% 0.04% 0.97% 0.99%
Barclay's US Treasury 7-10 YR (0.08%) (0.08%) 4.77% 5.16%
Barclay's US Treasury 20+ YR (0.53%) (0.53%) 8.09% 7.92%
BofAML 1-3YR Agency andTreasury 0.03% 0.03% 0.97% 0.99%
Bloomberg CorporateBond Index 1.36% 1.36% 5.49% 3.41%
Bloomberg High Yield BondIndex 3.90% 3.90% 7.53% (0.56%)
YIELD 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
US 2 YR 0.78% 0.72% 0.72% 1.05% 0.56%
US 5 YR 1.29% 1.20% 1.20% 1.76% 1.42%
US 10 YR 1.83% 1.77% 1.77% 2.27% 2.04%
US 30 YR 2.68% 2.61% 2.61% 3.02% 2.75%
5 YR Breakeven 1.60% 1.51% 1.51% 1.28% 1.73%
10 YR Breakeven 1.71% 1.63% 1.63% 1.58% 1.93%
Germany 0.26% 0.15% 0.15% 0.63% 0.28%
France 0.60% 0.49% 0.49% 0.99% 0.56%
Italy 1.47% 1.22% 1.22% 1.59% 1.50%
Spain 1.57% 1.43% 1.43% 1.77% 1.46%
UK 1.60% 1.42% 1.42% 1.96% 1.83%
Japan (0.14%) (0.04%) (0.04%) 0.26% 0.30%
Data as of April 29,2016
CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE
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Data as of April 29,2016
PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
USD/JPY 106.60 (5.30%) (5.30%) (11.57%) (10.44%)
EUR/USD 1.15 1.02% 1.02% 5.90% 3.31%
GBP/USD 1.45 1.22% 1.22% (1.43%) (5.85%)
USD/CHF 0.95 (0.76%) (0.76%) (4.68%) 1.62%
USD/CAD 1.27 (2.15%) (2.15%) (8.16%) 5.86%
USD/SEK 8.06 (0.73%) (0.73%) (4.74%) (3.26%)
AUD/USD 0.75 (2.25%) (2.25%) 2.49% (6.53%)
DXY Index 92.94 (1.74%) (1.74%) (5.82%) (2.38%)
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.36 (0.11%) (0.11%) 4.17% (10.17%)
COMMODITIES PERFORMANCE
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PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
Bloomberg Commodity Index 85.52 8.49% 8.49% 9.77% (17.02%)
Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.18 6.04% 6.04% (11.21%) (27.69%)
WTI USD/bbl. 45.92 15.52% 15.52% 13.24% (27.89%)
Brent USD/bbl. 47.37 16.19% 16.19% 15.59% (32.99%)
WTI-Brent USD/bbl. (0.68) 75.40 75.40 380.43 (69.56)
Gasoline USd/gal. 160.44 9.79% 9.79% 4.51% (18.96%)
Heating Oil USd/gal. 138.60 15.34% 15.34% 14.52% (31.91%)
Copper USd/lb. 228.35 4.22% 4.22% 9.13% (18.72%)
Aluminum USD/MT 1,679.00 10.46% 10.46% 13.99% (10.83%)
Zinc USD/MT 1,934.00 6.72% 6.72% 22.81% (16.27%)
Nickel USD/MT 9,417.00 11.19% 11.19% 10.50% (30.52%)
Gold USD/t oz. 1,293.53 4.93% 4.93% 20.37% 7.37%
Silver USD/t oz. 17.85 15.61% 15.61% 28.64% 7.80%
Platinum USD/t oz. 1,076.40 10.32% 10.32% 21.83% (6.74%)
Palladium USD/t oz. 622.79 10.41% 10.41% 15.22% (20.44%)
Corn USd/bu. 391.75 10.12% 10.12% 7.70% (4.86%)
Soybean USd/bu. 1,029.75 12.20% 12.20% 18.67% 5.18%
Live Cattle USd/lb. 114.93 (7.34%) (7.34%) (9.83%) (20.00%)
Cocoa USD/MT 3,233.00 9.26% 9.26% 3.56% 12.37%
Coffee USd/lb. 121.50 (6.21%) (6.21%) (5.04%) (20.64%)
Lean Hog USd/lb. 81.70 1.05% 1.05% 5.05% 2.70%
Sugar USd/lb. 16.32 5.63% 5.63% 13.41% 10.57%
Wheat USd/bu. 488.50 1.61% 1.61% 3.44% (9.91%)
Cotton USd/lb. 63.77 9.36% 9.36% (0.69%) (2.95%)
Data as of April 29,2016
MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY
United States
• Employment: The March employment report showed job
growth continued at a faster than expected pace with
payroll growth of 215k. Wage growth was also better than
expected and increased 2.3% YoY.
• Consumer: Retail sales continue to be poor, declining 0.3%
in March from a weak reading in February. The control
group, which is an input into GDP was also weaker than
expected and showed growth of only 0.1%.
• Manufacturing: The uptick in regional manufacturing
surveys last month did not translate into an improvement
in data this month as data releases for the sector were
very weak. April’s advance PMI was at the weakest since
2009 and both industrial production and durable goods
orders for March came in much weaker than expected.
• GDP: First quarter GDP came in at 0.5%, which was worse
than expectations of 0.7%. First quarter GDP has been the
weakest throughout the recovery, averaging 0.7% since
2010, while the other three quarters have an average
growth rate of 2.2%.
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Mixed US economic data provides unclear picture
Retail sales have been on a declining trend since March 2015
Manufacturing data has been poor
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Retail Sales MoM
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Industrial Production YoY Markit US Manufacturing PMI
BUSINESS CYCLE
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Transition between cycles currently taking place
Operating margins have been declining
Lack of inflation preventing late cycle transition
Indicators of the Mid Cycle
• GDP growth begins to moderate
• Profit margins peak
• Monetary policy is still accommodative, but less
accommodative than early cycle
• Lack of clear sector leadership
Indicators of the Late Cycle
• Above trend rates of inflation
• GDP and Industrial Production begin to hit slower
growth rates
• Monetary policy tightens
• Profit margins deteriorate
• Inventories tend to build unexpectedly as sales decline.
Late Cycle Transition: We believe that the US economy is
currently transitioning from the mid to late cycle with a tilt to late
cycle dynamics. Manufacturing data has been very weak and
profit margins continue to decline. There is still a lack of inflation,
although core PCE has started to rise and is getting close to 2%.
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
Operating Margin
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Headline CPI
EQUITIES
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Equities slightly up in April but earnings have been poor
Valuations at highest levels since the financial crisis
Tech has underperformed, banks have outperformed on earningsValuations: Equities rallied further in April after a strong March as
oil prices led markets higher. With negative earnings growth and
prices increasing, the trailing P/E is now at a post-recession high.
First Quarter Earnings: Earnings announcements for the first
quarter are in progress. So far over 70% of companies have beaten
EPS expectations, but growth is still coming in at -7.8%. Full year
EPS growth expectations have also been lowered from 1.7% on
April 1 to 0.9%.
Cyclicals vs. Defensives: After strong performance earlier in the
year, defensives have begun to lag with Utilities returning -2.41%
this month while the S&P 500 is up 0.39%. Interest rates rose this
month as investors began to be less concerned about weakness in
the global economy.
Information Technology: Large-cap tech companies Apple,
Microsoft, and Google missed EPS expectations and each had
selloffs larger than 5% the day after. Earnings for the sector as a
whole have fallen 9.8% in Q1 versus low expectations of -7.0%.
Banks: Banks were the first sector to report earnings and surprised
largely to the upside. The overall numbers are still poor, but after
a large selloff at the beginning of the year the calls reassured
investors that the banking environment is not as weak as some
thought. Banks rallied 6.8% during April, outperforming the
S&P 500.
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
105.0
106.0
107.0
108.0
109.0
110.0
111.0
112.0
113.0 Trailing 12M EPS Trailing P/E
100
105
110
115
120
125
S&P 500 Index Information Technology Financials
FIXED INCOME
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Interest rates increased with inflation expectations
The yield curve steepened in AprilYield Curve: Interest rates across the curve were higher from
March despite weaker domestic economic data in the month.
Inflation expectations again increased with higher commodity
prices. The yield curve steepened as an increase in inflation
expectations caused longer dated yields to rise. Fed dovishness
kept short term rates anchored.
Federal Reserve: The Fed met on April 27 and elected to keep the
Fed Funds rate at a range of 0.25-0.50%. There was no press
conference after the meeting and the statement was very similar
to March. However, rhetoric from officials since the March
meeting has been mostly dovish with Fed officials expressing
concerns about the global economic environment.
Interest Rate Changes
1M 2YR 5YR 10YR 30YR
3/31/16 0.17% 0.72% 1.20% 1.77% 2.61%
4/29/16 0.15% 0.78% 1.29% 1.83% 2.68%
Change (0.02%) 0.06% 0.09% 0.06% 0.07%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3/31/2016 4/29/2016
FIXED INCOME
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High yield spreads continue to come down with increases in commodity prices
High yield spreads are now 6.32%
High Yield: High yield spreads decreased during the month and
are now at 6.32%, down from 7.25% in March and the 8.96%
February high. This was largely due to the April rally in
commodities, led by oil, that eased worries on defaults from
commodity producers.
Breakevens: 10-year inflation expectations increased from 1.63%
to 1.71% in the month. Commodities were again the driver within
inflation expectations, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index gained
8.49% during the month.
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
1.30%
1.40%
1.50%
1.60%
1.70%
1.80%
1.90%
2.00%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0% High Yield Spread 10 YR Breakeven
FIXED INCOME
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Negative interest rates were in focus in April
With much of the global debt market in negative territory (see
chart on next page), negative interest rates are no longer
theoretical. While it is still too early to call them a success or
detriment, it is important to understand both points of view.
Advocates: Those in favor or negative interest rates argue that it
incentivizes corporations to spend rather than keep money
deposited at central banks and this will stimulate economic
activity. It also makes new debt extremely cheap to issue, which
should promote capital expenditures and other economic activity.
Critics: Those who argue against negative rates generally point to
the banking sector as an example of the fallacies of the policy.
They say banks are unlikely to pass on negative rates to
consumers thus the impact on the real economy will be muted.
This also means that negative interest rates will hurt banks’
profitability and cause them to lend less as a result, which
actually tightens conditions.
Japan’s yields are negative out to 10 years
(0.30%)
(0.20%)
(0.10%)
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
FIXED INCOME
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Negative interest rates were in focus in April
Maturity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Switzerland (0.89%) (0.89%) (0.89%) (0.81%) (0.74%) (0.63%) (0.54%) (0.41%) (0.33%) (0.26%) (0.04%) 0.09% 0.23%
Netherlands (0.48%) (0.45%) (0.40%) (0.32%) (0.07%) 0.07% 0.22% 0.37% 0.50% 0.86% 0.95% 1.16%
Finland (0.48%) (0.43%) (0.36%) (0.22%) (0.15%) 0.04% 0.11% 0.28% 0.39% 0.58% 0.97% 1.18%
Sweden (0.61%) (0.41%) (0.07%) 0.24% 0.47% 0.62% 1.44%
France (0.48%) (0.40%) (0.33%) (0.22%) (0.10%) (0.00%) 0.15% 0.30% 0.48% 0.63% 1.12% 1.41% 1.62%
Greece 9.37% 9.03% 8.41% 8.18% 8.04%
Italy (0.11%) (0.05%) 0.02% 0.18% 0.39% 0.74% 0.96% 1.20% 1.33% 1.49% 1.89% 2.19% 2.62%
Spain (0.17%) (0.07%) 0.02% 0.36% 0.58% 0.63% 0.88% 1.28% 1.43% 1.59% 2.02% 2.48% 2.82%
Portugal 0.04% 0.67% 1.15% 1.59% 1.91% 2.40% 2.88% 2.97% 3.15% 3.56% 3.92% 4.08%
Germany (0.52%) (0.49%) (0.48%) (0.40%) (0.29%) (0.23%) (0.13%) (0.01%) 0.13% 0.27% 0.46% 0.73% 1.01%
United Kingdom 0.47% 0.52% 0.71% 0.88% 0.97% 1.16% 1.34% 1.49% 1.48% 1.60% 2.09% 2.27% 2.39%
Japan (0.27%) (0.24%) (0.23%) (0.22%) (0.20%) (0.21%) (0.19%) (0.16%) (0.13%) (0.08%) 0.07% 0.31% 0.33%
China 2.31% 2.53% 2.55% 2.70% 2.68% 2.90% 2.94% 2.89%
Russia 9.60% 9.38% 9.32% 9.02% 9.00% 8.92% 8.88% 8.93%
India 7.04% 7.17% 7.27% 7.39% 7.44% 7.61% 7.58% 7.60% 7.62% 7.44%
Brazil 13.32% 12.69% 12.50% 12.46% 12.41% 12.44% 12.47%
Mexico 3.92% 4.03% 4.60% 5.25% 5.47% 5.67% 5.86% 6.17% 6.41% 6.51%
Canada 0.60% 0.69% 0.68% 0.78% 0.88% 1.05% 1.21% 1.34% 1.43% 1.51% 2.07% 2.08%
United States 0.55% 0.78% 0.93% 1.29% 1.62% 1.83% 2.68%
MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES
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MBS generally outperformed Treasuries due to high demand
MBS outperformance was especially strong during the
back-end of the month as treasuries sold off while MBS
prices inched higher. Demand was strong in part due to
the backup in rates, overseas demand, and continued
Federal Reserve purchases.
Prepayment speeds increased considerably due to many
expected factors such as an increase in number of
business days, lower interest rates, and general
seasonal turnover. However, prepayments remain
muted versus historical norms and today’s environment
continues to be an attractive one for prepayment risk.
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000 MBS Refinancing Index
Prepayment speeds increased but remain below historical norms
CURRENCIES
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Dollar weakens as yen strengthens on BOJ policy
EUR/USD above 1.14, USD/JPY below 110
Speculative bets on the yen have increased
USD: The dollar was slightly weaker as economic data was weak
throughout the month. Markets are still only expecting one rate
increase this year and for it to come in December, compared to
the Fed’s projection of two rate increases in 2016.
Euro: The ECB met on April 20 and left policy unchanged, but
during Draghi’s press conference he stated that rates will stay at
or below current levels for an extended period of time and that
risks are still tilted to the downside.
Yen: The Bank of Japan met on April 28 and surprised markets by
keeping monetary policy on hold for the time being. Further
easing was expected as the yen had strengthened by 4.5% since
their last meeting. The yen strengthened after the announcement
and finished the month 5.5% stronger versus the dollar.
• This chart shows that speculative bets on the Yen have
completely reversed since the beginning of 2015.
Investors expected the yen to weaken due to
accommodative monetary policy, but were wrong-
footed as the yen has strengthened vs the dollar.
Futures positioning has gone from –31,183 contracts to
+66,498 contracts over the last year.
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20 EUR/USD USD/JPY
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
JPY Net Positions
COMMODITIES
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Commodities continue rally with positive data and dollar weakness
Base metals rallied in April after a tough 2015
Oil has rebounded with US production declinesOil: OPEC’s much-discussed meeting was on April 17 and ended
with no agreement from producers. Oil markets were largely
unaffected despite rallying prior to the meeting on rumors of a
production freeze. US oil production is now in focus, with
production from the Lower 48 states down over 700k barrels per
day since it’s peak last June.
• Storage concerns also relaxed during the month, which
provided a further tailwind to oil. While total inventories
continue to build, it is at a much slower pace than late
last year. Capacity concerns were also primarily focused
on the Cushing, OK hub. Those concerns have been
eased as Cushing has seen inventory withdrawals in four
of the last six weeks.
Base Metals: After declining 60% from April 2011 – March 2016,
base metals began to rally in April. Chinese economic
improvements were largely the spark to the rally as investors are
now less concerned with an economic slowdown out of the
country.
• Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and many others have
voiced skepticism of the rally. They point to the rise of
trading volumes and leverage in Chinese commodity
markets and draw similarities to 2015’s equity market
run-up.
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
8,250
8,350
8,450
8,550
8,650
8,750
8,850
8,950
9,050
9,150
9,250
Lower 48 Oil Production WTI
175
195
215
235
255
275
295
315
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Aluminum Copper
VOLATILITY
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The VIX traded in a low range for much of the month
VIX and OVX have declined YTDVIX: Both the VIX and OVX (Oil Volatility) have come down
substantially since January YTD highs as oil prices have rallied.
This further emphasizes the commentary that the recent rally in
asset prices has been primarily driven by oil.
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0 VIX Oil Volatility
EUROPE
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European equities have outperformed the S&P 500 after a slow start to the year
ECB: The ECB met on April 21 and left policy unchanged, but
during Draghi’s press conference he stated that rates will stay at
or below current levels for an extended period of time and that
risks are still tilted to the downside.
United Kingdom: While there have been no major developments
as markets await the referendum on June 23, markets continue
to be cautious regarding a potential Brexit. Latest polls show the
campaign to stay within the European Union is beginning to gain
momentum within the country, but this can change very quickly
due to a volatile geopolitical environment.
Europe outperformed domestic markets in April
Economic data showing signs of improving
"Inflation rates could turn negative again in the coming
months before picking up in the second half of 2016.
Inflation rates should pick up further in 2017."
- Mario Draghi, ECB President
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
S&P 500 Index Stoxx 50
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
Citi Economic Surprise Index - Europe
CHINA
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 20
Chinese economy showing signs of stabilizing
GDP: China’s official Q1 GDP came in in-line with
expectations at 6.7%. The government has said its 2016
GDP target is a range of 6.5% - 7%.
Economic Data: China also released other key data
points throughout the month. Trade data and industrial
production were both much better than expected while
retail sales were in line with expectations. Chinese
economic data was relatively weak in the first quarter,
so the relief from the data this month caused investor
sentiment to become more positive.
Yuan: The yuan traded in a 71 basis point range during
the month as economic data was stable and sentiment
turned more positive. This quiet trading environment
was a relief as many investors feared a major
devaluation earlier in the year.
Equities: After a 12% gain in March, the Shanghai
Composite finished down 2.16% in April. Trading
volumes in China have been light as investors have
focused on commodities.
Equity markets were down after a strong March
The yuan has traded in a tight range
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500 Shanghai Composite Shenzen Composite
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
USD/CNY
DISCLOSURES
The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide
range of S&P 500 index options. You can not invest directly in an index.
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return of the Standard & Poor’s composite index of 500 stocks, a widely recognized,
unmanaged index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Shanghai Composite is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Russell 2000 Index tracks the stocks of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index. It is considered the benchmark
index of the small-cap U.S. equity universe. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The STOXX 600 tracks 600 publicly-traded companies based in one of 18 EU countries. The index includes small cap, medium cap,
and large cap companies. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (Germanstock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German
companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 21
DISCLOSURES
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, or Nikkei, is the leading index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s
top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the investment grade,
fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the non-
investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, global corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay's 1-3 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking short-term government securities with maturities between 1
and 2.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay’s 7-10 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking medium-term government securities with maturities between
7 and 9.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay’s 20+ Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking long-term government securities with maturities greater than
20 years. You cannot invest directly in an index.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 22
DISCLOSURES
JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is comprised of the spot prices of 10 emerging market currencies relative to the U.S.
dollar. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index designed to allow investors to track commodity
futures through a single, simple measure. The index is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure emerging markets
equity performance. You cannot invest directly in
an index.
The opinions expressed are as of the date written and may change as subsequent conditions vary. This paper is not intended to be relied
upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to
adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper
is at the sole discretion of the reader.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 23
Contact Us:
865.243.8000 Local 877.819.2188 Toll Free
KNOXVILLE:
9202 S. Northshore Drive, Suite 300
Knoxville, TN 37922
SHREWSBURY:
595 Shrewsbury Ave.
Shrewsbury, NJ 07702
ORLANDO:
801 N. Orange Avenue, Suite 730
Orlando, FL 32801
DENVER:
1228 15th Street, Suite 306
Denver, CO 80202
www.backporchvista.com Copyright © 2016 by BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved.

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BPV Capital Market Update - April 2016

  • 2. GLOBAL MARKET SUMMARY CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 2 Stabilizing global economy pushed equities, interest rates and commodities higher in April United States Economic: Economic data in April came in worse than expected and first quarter GDP came in at 0.5% versus 0.7% expected. Business Cycle: As the mid-to-latecycle transition is firmly underway, late cycle dynamics are beginning to gain momentum. Equities US Equities continued their momentum from March and were up another 0.39% in April as earnings season for Q1 2016 is underway. Poor Q1 earnings growth has so far been overshadowed by an increase in oil prices. Fixed Income Both the ECB and Federal Reserve met during the month and relieved markets with even more dovish rhetoric and projections. Markets are now expecting the next rate increase in December. Mortgage Backed Securities Mortgage Backed Securities outperformed US Treasuries and Swaps across coupons in both 15yr and 30yr collateral. Prepayment speeds were higher during the month as expected. Currencies The yen strengthened vs the dollar as the BOJ surprised investors by leaving monetary policy unchanged at their April meeting. Volatility The VIX and OVX are near YTD lows and are nearing 2015’s low levels as equities and oil rallied during the month. Commodities OPEC’s meeting resulted in no action being taken at this time, but oil markets shrugged off this news and instead focused on declining US production, which is down 7% from a year ago. Europe ECB: The ECB met on April 20 and left policy unchanged,but Draghi maintained a dovish tone in his post-meeting press conference. Brexit: There is growing uncertainty around the June 23 referendum as polls are currently split on the decision. China Chinese economic data came in much better than expected during the month and investors are seemingly no longer worried about an economic hard landing. Theyuan has been stable for two months and traded in a very tight range in April. April 2016
  • 3. CHART OF THE MONTH CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 3 In April, the main underlying theme driving asset class performance was that the fears of a global recession continued to ease. This can be seen in the chart by looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe and China. In the beginning of the year, economic data began missing expectations in the US, Europe and China. The US began to improve in February, followed by Europe in March and China in April. The improvement in Chinese economic data in April was the final data point needed for investors to become “risk-on”. The validation that the global economy may still be on solid ground led to a rebound in commodity prices, an increase in US interest rates and a continued rise in global equity markets, led by cyclical sectors. It also resulted in the Fed removing the statement “…global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks” from the April FOMC statement. The solid economic footing is a relief for investors who were fearing the worst earlier in the year, but investors may not be out of the woods yet. US economic data has begun to miss expectations in April, and Q1 GDP came in at a low level of 0.5%. Fears of global recession are easing -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 CESI - Europe CESI - China CESI - US
  • 4. EQUITY PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 4 Data as of April 29,2016 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR S&P 500 2,065.30 0.39% 0.39% 1.74% 1.20% Consumer Discretionary 628.76 0.13% 0.13% 1.74% 6.94% Consumer Staples 535.63 (1.28%) (1.28%) 4.22% 10.86% Energy 502.42 8.70% 8.70% 13.07% (13.91%) Financials 313.64 3.40% 3.40% (1.83%) (1.52%) Healthcare 806.34 2.93% 2.93% (2.73%) (1.08%) Industrials 487.65 0.89% 0.89% 5.93% 4.12% InformationTechnology 696.81 (5.39%) (5.39%) (2.93%) (0.10%) Materials 295.62 4.95% 4.95% 8.74% (4.30%) Telecommunications 167.13 (2.11%) (2.11%) 14.15% 9.79% Utilities 245.76 (2.41%) (2.41%) 12.77% 13.68% Russell 2000 1,130.85 1.57% 1.57% 0.02% (5.95%) Europe(Stoxx600) 341.48 1.87% 1.87% (5.24%) (10.81%) Germany (DAX) 10,038.97 0.74% 0.74% (6.55%) (12.36%) China (Shanghai Composite) 2,938.32 (2.16%) (2.16%) (16.95%) (32.80%) Japan (Nikkei) 16,666.05 (0.55%) (0.55%) (11.72%) (13.07%)
  • 5. FIXED INCOME PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 5 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR Barclay's US Treasury 1-3 YR 0.04% 0.04% 0.97% 0.99% Barclay's US Treasury 7-10 YR (0.08%) (0.08%) 4.77% 5.16% Barclay's US Treasury 20+ YR (0.53%) (0.53%) 8.09% 7.92% BofAML 1-3YR Agency andTreasury 0.03% 0.03% 0.97% 0.99% Bloomberg CorporateBond Index 1.36% 1.36% 5.49% 3.41% Bloomberg High Yield BondIndex 3.90% 3.90% 7.53% (0.56%) YIELD 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR US 2 YR 0.78% 0.72% 0.72% 1.05% 0.56% US 5 YR 1.29% 1.20% 1.20% 1.76% 1.42% US 10 YR 1.83% 1.77% 1.77% 2.27% 2.04% US 30 YR 2.68% 2.61% 2.61% 3.02% 2.75% 5 YR Breakeven 1.60% 1.51% 1.51% 1.28% 1.73% 10 YR Breakeven 1.71% 1.63% 1.63% 1.58% 1.93% Germany 0.26% 0.15% 0.15% 0.63% 0.28% France 0.60% 0.49% 0.49% 0.99% 0.56% Italy 1.47% 1.22% 1.22% 1.59% 1.50% Spain 1.57% 1.43% 1.43% 1.77% 1.46% UK 1.60% 1.42% 1.42% 1.96% 1.83% Japan (0.14%) (0.04%) (0.04%) 0.26% 0.30% Data as of April 29,2016
  • 6. CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 6 Data as of April 29,2016 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR USD/JPY 106.60 (5.30%) (5.30%) (11.57%) (10.44%) EUR/USD 1.15 1.02% 1.02% 5.90% 3.31% GBP/USD 1.45 1.22% 1.22% (1.43%) (5.85%) USD/CHF 0.95 (0.76%) (0.76%) (4.68%) 1.62% USD/CAD 1.27 (2.15%) (2.15%) (8.16%) 5.86% USD/SEK 8.06 (0.73%) (0.73%) (4.74%) (3.26%) AUD/USD 0.75 (2.25%) (2.25%) 2.49% (6.53%) DXY Index 92.94 (1.74%) (1.74%) (5.82%) (2.38%) JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.36 (0.11%) (0.11%) 4.17% (10.17%)
  • 7. COMMODITIES PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 7 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR Bloomberg Commodity Index 85.52 8.49% 8.49% 9.77% (17.02%) Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.18 6.04% 6.04% (11.21%) (27.69%) WTI USD/bbl. 45.92 15.52% 15.52% 13.24% (27.89%) Brent USD/bbl. 47.37 16.19% 16.19% 15.59% (32.99%) WTI-Brent USD/bbl. (0.68) 75.40 75.40 380.43 (69.56) Gasoline USd/gal. 160.44 9.79% 9.79% 4.51% (18.96%) Heating Oil USd/gal. 138.60 15.34% 15.34% 14.52% (31.91%) Copper USd/lb. 228.35 4.22% 4.22% 9.13% (18.72%) Aluminum USD/MT 1,679.00 10.46% 10.46% 13.99% (10.83%) Zinc USD/MT 1,934.00 6.72% 6.72% 22.81% (16.27%) Nickel USD/MT 9,417.00 11.19% 11.19% 10.50% (30.52%) Gold USD/t oz. 1,293.53 4.93% 4.93% 20.37% 7.37% Silver USD/t oz. 17.85 15.61% 15.61% 28.64% 7.80% Platinum USD/t oz. 1,076.40 10.32% 10.32% 21.83% (6.74%) Palladium USD/t oz. 622.79 10.41% 10.41% 15.22% (20.44%) Corn USd/bu. 391.75 10.12% 10.12% 7.70% (4.86%) Soybean USd/bu. 1,029.75 12.20% 12.20% 18.67% 5.18% Live Cattle USd/lb. 114.93 (7.34%) (7.34%) (9.83%) (20.00%) Cocoa USD/MT 3,233.00 9.26% 9.26% 3.56% 12.37% Coffee USd/lb. 121.50 (6.21%) (6.21%) (5.04%) (20.64%) Lean Hog USd/lb. 81.70 1.05% 1.05% 5.05% 2.70% Sugar USd/lb. 16.32 5.63% 5.63% 13.41% 10.57% Wheat USd/bu. 488.50 1.61% 1.61% 3.44% (9.91%) Cotton USd/lb. 63.77 9.36% 9.36% (0.69%) (2.95%) Data as of April 29,2016
  • 8. MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY United States • Employment: The March employment report showed job growth continued at a faster than expected pace with payroll growth of 215k. Wage growth was also better than expected and increased 2.3% YoY. • Consumer: Retail sales continue to be poor, declining 0.3% in March from a weak reading in February. The control group, which is an input into GDP was also weaker than expected and showed growth of only 0.1%. • Manufacturing: The uptick in regional manufacturing surveys last month did not translate into an improvement in data this month as data releases for the sector were very weak. April’s advance PMI was at the weakest since 2009 and both industrial production and durable goods orders for March came in much weaker than expected. • GDP: First quarter GDP came in at 0.5%, which was worse than expectations of 0.7%. First quarter GDP has been the weakest throughout the recovery, averaging 0.7% since 2010, while the other three quarters have an average growth rate of 2.2%. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 8 Mixed US economic data provides unclear picture Retail sales have been on a declining trend since March 2015 Manufacturing data has been poor -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Retail Sales MoM 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Industrial Production YoY Markit US Manufacturing PMI
  • 9. BUSINESS CYCLE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 9 Transition between cycles currently taking place Operating margins have been declining Lack of inflation preventing late cycle transition Indicators of the Mid Cycle • GDP growth begins to moderate • Profit margins peak • Monetary policy is still accommodative, but less accommodative than early cycle • Lack of clear sector leadership Indicators of the Late Cycle • Above trend rates of inflation • GDP and Industrial Production begin to hit slower growth rates • Monetary policy tightens • Profit margins deteriorate • Inventories tend to build unexpectedly as sales decline. Late Cycle Transition: We believe that the US economy is currently transitioning from the mid to late cycle with a tilt to late cycle dynamics. Manufacturing data has been very weak and profit margins continue to decline. There is still a lack of inflation, although core PCE has started to rise and is getting close to 2%. 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Operating Margin -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Headline CPI
  • 10. EQUITIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 10 Equities slightly up in April but earnings have been poor Valuations at highest levels since the financial crisis Tech has underperformed, banks have outperformed on earningsValuations: Equities rallied further in April after a strong March as oil prices led markets higher. With negative earnings growth and prices increasing, the trailing P/E is now at a post-recession high. First Quarter Earnings: Earnings announcements for the first quarter are in progress. So far over 70% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, but growth is still coming in at -7.8%. Full year EPS growth expectations have also been lowered from 1.7% on April 1 to 0.9%. Cyclicals vs. Defensives: After strong performance earlier in the year, defensives have begun to lag with Utilities returning -2.41% this month while the S&P 500 is up 0.39%. Interest rates rose this month as investors began to be less concerned about weakness in the global economy. Information Technology: Large-cap tech companies Apple, Microsoft, and Google missed EPS expectations and each had selloffs larger than 5% the day after. Earnings for the sector as a whole have fallen 9.8% in Q1 versus low expectations of -7.0%. Banks: Banks were the first sector to report earnings and surprised largely to the upside. The overall numbers are still poor, but after a large selloff at the beginning of the year the calls reassured investors that the banking environment is not as weak as some thought. Banks rallied 6.8% during April, outperforming the S&P 500. 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 109.0 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.0 Trailing 12M EPS Trailing P/E 100 105 110 115 120 125 S&P 500 Index Information Technology Financials
  • 11. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 11 Interest rates increased with inflation expectations The yield curve steepened in AprilYield Curve: Interest rates across the curve were higher from March despite weaker domestic economic data in the month. Inflation expectations again increased with higher commodity prices. The yield curve steepened as an increase in inflation expectations caused longer dated yields to rise. Fed dovishness kept short term rates anchored. Federal Reserve: The Fed met on April 27 and elected to keep the Fed Funds rate at a range of 0.25-0.50%. There was no press conference after the meeting and the statement was very similar to March. However, rhetoric from officials since the March meeting has been mostly dovish with Fed officials expressing concerns about the global economic environment. Interest Rate Changes 1M 2YR 5YR 10YR 30YR 3/31/16 0.17% 0.72% 1.20% 1.77% 2.61% 4/29/16 0.15% 0.78% 1.29% 1.83% 2.68% Change (0.02%) 0.06% 0.09% 0.06% 0.07% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3/31/2016 4/29/2016
  • 12. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 12 High yield spreads continue to come down with increases in commodity prices High yield spreads are now 6.32% High Yield: High yield spreads decreased during the month and are now at 6.32%, down from 7.25% in March and the 8.96% February high. This was largely due to the April rally in commodities, led by oil, that eased worries on defaults from commodity producers. Breakevens: 10-year inflation expectations increased from 1.63% to 1.71% in the month. Commodities were again the driver within inflation expectations, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 8.49% during the month. 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80% 1.90% 2.00% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% High Yield Spread 10 YR Breakeven
  • 13. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 13 Negative interest rates were in focus in April With much of the global debt market in negative territory (see chart on next page), negative interest rates are no longer theoretical. While it is still too early to call them a success or detriment, it is important to understand both points of view. Advocates: Those in favor or negative interest rates argue that it incentivizes corporations to spend rather than keep money deposited at central banks and this will stimulate economic activity. It also makes new debt extremely cheap to issue, which should promote capital expenditures and other economic activity. Critics: Those who argue against negative rates generally point to the banking sector as an example of the fallacies of the policy. They say banks are unlikely to pass on negative rates to consumers thus the impact on the real economy will be muted. This also means that negative interest rates will hurt banks’ profitability and cause them to lend less as a result, which actually tightens conditions. Japan’s yields are negative out to 10 years (0.30%) (0.20%) (0.10%) 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
  • 14. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 14 Negative interest rates were in focus in April Maturity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30 Switzerland (0.89%) (0.89%) (0.89%) (0.81%) (0.74%) (0.63%) (0.54%) (0.41%) (0.33%) (0.26%) (0.04%) 0.09% 0.23% Netherlands (0.48%) (0.45%) (0.40%) (0.32%) (0.07%) 0.07% 0.22% 0.37% 0.50% 0.86% 0.95% 1.16% Finland (0.48%) (0.43%) (0.36%) (0.22%) (0.15%) 0.04% 0.11% 0.28% 0.39% 0.58% 0.97% 1.18% Sweden (0.61%) (0.41%) (0.07%) 0.24% 0.47% 0.62% 1.44% France (0.48%) (0.40%) (0.33%) (0.22%) (0.10%) (0.00%) 0.15% 0.30% 0.48% 0.63% 1.12% 1.41% 1.62% Greece 9.37% 9.03% 8.41% 8.18% 8.04% Italy (0.11%) (0.05%) 0.02% 0.18% 0.39% 0.74% 0.96% 1.20% 1.33% 1.49% 1.89% 2.19% 2.62% Spain (0.17%) (0.07%) 0.02% 0.36% 0.58% 0.63% 0.88% 1.28% 1.43% 1.59% 2.02% 2.48% 2.82% Portugal 0.04% 0.67% 1.15% 1.59% 1.91% 2.40% 2.88% 2.97% 3.15% 3.56% 3.92% 4.08% Germany (0.52%) (0.49%) (0.48%) (0.40%) (0.29%) (0.23%) (0.13%) (0.01%) 0.13% 0.27% 0.46% 0.73% 1.01% United Kingdom 0.47% 0.52% 0.71% 0.88% 0.97% 1.16% 1.34% 1.49% 1.48% 1.60% 2.09% 2.27% 2.39% Japan (0.27%) (0.24%) (0.23%) (0.22%) (0.20%) (0.21%) (0.19%) (0.16%) (0.13%) (0.08%) 0.07% 0.31% 0.33% China 2.31% 2.53% 2.55% 2.70% 2.68% 2.90% 2.94% 2.89% Russia 9.60% 9.38% 9.32% 9.02% 9.00% 8.92% 8.88% 8.93% India 7.04% 7.17% 7.27% 7.39% 7.44% 7.61% 7.58% 7.60% 7.62% 7.44% Brazil 13.32% 12.69% 12.50% 12.46% 12.41% 12.44% 12.47% Mexico 3.92% 4.03% 4.60% 5.25% 5.47% 5.67% 5.86% 6.17% 6.41% 6.51% Canada 0.60% 0.69% 0.68% 0.78% 0.88% 1.05% 1.21% 1.34% 1.43% 1.51% 2.07% 2.08% United States 0.55% 0.78% 0.93% 1.29% 1.62% 1.83% 2.68%
  • 15. MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 15 MBS generally outperformed Treasuries due to high demand MBS outperformance was especially strong during the back-end of the month as treasuries sold off while MBS prices inched higher. Demand was strong in part due to the backup in rates, overseas demand, and continued Federal Reserve purchases. Prepayment speeds increased considerably due to many expected factors such as an increase in number of business days, lower interest rates, and general seasonal turnover. However, prepayments remain muted versus historical norms and today’s environment continues to be an attractive one for prepayment risk. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 MBS Refinancing Index Prepayment speeds increased but remain below historical norms
  • 16. CURRENCIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 16 Dollar weakens as yen strengthens on BOJ policy EUR/USD above 1.14, USD/JPY below 110 Speculative bets on the yen have increased USD: The dollar was slightly weaker as economic data was weak throughout the month. Markets are still only expecting one rate increase this year and for it to come in December, compared to the Fed’s projection of two rate increases in 2016. Euro: The ECB met on April 20 and left policy unchanged, but during Draghi’s press conference he stated that rates will stay at or below current levels for an extended period of time and that risks are still tilted to the downside. Yen: The Bank of Japan met on April 28 and surprised markets by keeping monetary policy on hold for the time being. Further easing was expected as the yen had strengthened by 4.5% since their last meeting. The yen strengthened after the announcement and finished the month 5.5% stronger versus the dollar. • This chart shows that speculative bets on the Yen have completely reversed since the beginning of 2015. Investors expected the yen to weaken due to accommodative monetary policy, but were wrong- footed as the yen has strengthened vs the dollar. Futures positioning has gone from –31,183 contracts to +66,498 contracts over the last year. 95.00 100.00 105.00 110.00 115.00 120.00 125.00 130.00 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 EUR/USD USD/JPY -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 JPY Net Positions
  • 17. COMMODITIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 17 Commodities continue rally with positive data and dollar weakness Base metals rallied in April after a tough 2015 Oil has rebounded with US production declinesOil: OPEC’s much-discussed meeting was on April 17 and ended with no agreement from producers. Oil markets were largely unaffected despite rallying prior to the meeting on rumors of a production freeze. US oil production is now in focus, with production from the Lower 48 states down over 700k barrels per day since it’s peak last June. • Storage concerns also relaxed during the month, which provided a further tailwind to oil. While total inventories continue to build, it is at a much slower pace than late last year. Capacity concerns were also primarily focused on the Cushing, OK hub. Those concerns have been eased as Cushing has seen inventory withdrawals in four of the last six weeks. Base Metals: After declining 60% from April 2011 – March 2016, base metals began to rally in April. Chinese economic improvements were largely the spark to the rally as investors are now less concerned with an economic slowdown out of the country. • Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and many others have voiced skepticism of the rally. They point to the rise of trading volumes and leverage in Chinese commodity markets and draw similarities to 2015’s equity market run-up. 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 8,250 8,350 8,450 8,550 8,650 8,750 8,850 8,950 9,050 9,150 9,250 Lower 48 Oil Production WTI 175 195 215 235 255 275 295 315 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 Aluminum Copper
  • 18. VOLATILITY CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 18 The VIX traded in a low range for much of the month VIX and OVX have declined YTDVIX: Both the VIX and OVX (Oil Volatility) have come down substantially since January YTD highs as oil prices have rallied. This further emphasizes the commentary that the recent rally in asset prices has been primarily driven by oil. 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 VIX Oil Volatility
  • 19. EUROPE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 19 European equities have outperformed the S&P 500 after a slow start to the year ECB: The ECB met on April 21 and left policy unchanged, but during Draghi’s press conference he stated that rates will stay at or below current levels for an extended period of time and that risks are still tilted to the downside. United Kingdom: While there have been no major developments as markets await the referendum on June 23, markets continue to be cautious regarding a potential Brexit. Latest polls show the campaign to stay within the European Union is beginning to gain momentum within the country, but this can change very quickly due to a volatile geopolitical environment. Europe outperformed domestic markets in April Economic data showing signs of improving "Inflation rates could turn negative again in the coming months before picking up in the second half of 2016. Inflation rates should pick up further in 2017." - Mario Draghi, ECB President 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 S&P 500 Index Stoxx 50 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 Citi Economic Surprise Index - Europe
  • 20. CHINA CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 20 Chinese economy showing signs of stabilizing GDP: China’s official Q1 GDP came in in-line with expectations at 6.7%. The government has said its 2016 GDP target is a range of 6.5% - 7%. Economic Data: China also released other key data points throughout the month. Trade data and industrial production were both much better than expected while retail sales were in line with expectations. Chinese economic data was relatively weak in the first quarter, so the relief from the data this month caused investor sentiment to become more positive. Yuan: The yuan traded in a 71 basis point range during the month as economic data was stable and sentiment turned more positive. This quiet trading environment was a relief as many investors feared a major devaluation earlier in the year. Equities: After a 12% gain in March, the Shanghai Composite finished down 2.16% in April. Trading volumes in China have been light as investors have focused on commodities. Equity markets were down after a strong March The yuan has traded in a tight range 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Shanghai Composite Shenzen Composite 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 USD/CNY
  • 21. DISCLOSURES The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. You can not invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return of the Standard & Poor’s composite index of 500 stocks, a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Shanghai Composite is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the stocks of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index. It is considered the benchmark index of the small-cap U.S. equity universe. You cannot invest directly in an index. The STOXX 600 tracks 600 publicly-traded companies based in one of 18 EU countries. The index includes small cap, medium cap, and large cap companies. You cannot invest directly in an index. The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (Germanstock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 21
  • 22. DISCLOSURES The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, or Nikkei, is the leading index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the non- investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, global corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay's 1-3 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking short-term government securities with maturities between 1 and 2.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay’s 7-10 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking medium-term government securities with maturities between 7 and 9.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay’s 20+ Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking long-term government securities with maturities greater than 20 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 22
  • 23. DISCLOSURES JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is comprised of the spot prices of 10 emerging market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index designed to allow investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. The index is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure emerging markets equity performance. You cannot invest directly in an index. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and may change as subsequent conditions vary. This paper is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. 23
  • 24. Contact Us: 865.243.8000 Local 877.819.2188 Toll Free KNOXVILLE: 9202 S. Northshore Drive, Suite 300 Knoxville, TN 37922 SHREWSBURY: 595 Shrewsbury Ave. Shrewsbury, NJ 07702 ORLANDO: 801 N. Orange Avenue, Suite 730 Orlando, FL 32801 DENVER: 1228 15th Street, Suite 306 Denver, CO 80202 www.backporchvista.com Copyright © 2016 by BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved.