This document analyzes test score and poverty rate data from schools in CESA 3 to identify schools that may be "beating the odds". It ranks schools based on their free/reduced lunch counts and their percentages of students scoring advanced on math tests. Subtracting these ranks identifies schools with higher than expected test scores given their poverty levels. The document provides these rankings for each grade level and school-wide to help identify programs from schools that are exceeding expectations. It notes this is not a scientific analysis but may provide useful information for planning or program comparisons.

1. Exceeding Expectations?
Beating the odds?
This is designed for internal PdC
Public School use only
All data is available at DPI WINNS

2. Research has shown that generally
schools with lower poverty rates
outperform those with higher
poverty levels.

3. Therefore, if we take the WKCE
data in math by grade level and
rank CESA 3 schools - in theory, the
schools with lower free/reduced
counts should have higher scores.

4. 1. Rank CESA 3 schools on the
WKCE Advanced percentages in
math by grade level (reading will
be done later if we find this to be
of value)
2. Rank CESA 3 schools on the
free/ reduced counts by grade

5. If we subtract the WKCE advanced
rank from the free/reduced rank;
this should roughly give us a
numerical ranking of how well the
schools do according to
expectations and approximate
which schools may be beating the
odds

6. This is not designed to be an overly
scientific statistical analysis, but it
is information that may be useful
for planning or comparison with
other programs.

7. 30
Grade 3 Math
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank
20
17
11
10 10
10 9 9
8 8
7 7
6
5
4
3 3 3
2
1 1 1
0
-1
-4
-5
-6
-8
-10 -9
-12
-15
-18
-20
PdC beat the odds
-24
-23 Rank 29 in F/R count
Rank 20 in % Advanced
-30

8. 30
Grade 4 Math
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank 21
20
17
13 13
11 11
10
10
7 7
6
4
3
2 2
1
0
-1 -1
-2
-3 -3 -3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-10
-12
-15
-16 -16 -16
-18
-20
PdC beat the odds
Rank 27 in F/R count
-30
Rank 20 in % Advanced

9. 30
Grade 5 Math 25
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank 19
21
20
14 14
12
11
10
7
6
4 4 4
3 3 3
2
1
0
-3
-4 -4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-10
-10 -10 -10
-18 -18
-20
PdC beat the odds
-22
Rank 28 in F/R count
-30
-28 Rank 14 in % Advanced

10. 25 23
Grade 6 Math
20
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank
15 13 13 13
11
10
10 9 9
8 8 8
7 7
5 4 4
3
0
0
-1 -1
-2
-5 -4
-6
-7
-10
-10
-11 -11
-13
-15
-18
-20 -19
-21 PdC beat the odds
-25 Rank 29 in F/R count
-26
-30
Rank 16 in % Advanced

11. 15 14 14
Grade 7 Math 11
10 F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank 8
9 9 9
10 10
7 7
6
5 4
3
2
0
0
-1
-3 -3 -3
-5 -4
-7 -7 -7 -7 -7
-8
-10 -9
-10
-15
-20
PdC beat the odds
-22
Rank 29 in F/R count
-25
Rank 15 in % Advanced
-25

12. 30
Grade 8 Math 27 27
25
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank
20
15
15
12
10 10 10
10 9 9
8
6
5
3
2
0 0 0 0
0
-1 -1
-2
-5
-6 -6
-10
-10
-11
PdC beat the odds
-15
-16
-15
-14 -14
Rank 30 in F/R count
-20
-18
-17 -17
Rank 21 in % Advanced

13. 25
23
Grade 10 Math 20
20
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank
15
15
12
10
10
8
7
6
5 5
5 4
3
2 2
1 1
0 0
0
-1 -1
-5
-5 -5
-6
-7 -7
-8
-10
-10
-12
-15
-16
PdC beat the odds
-20
-21
Rank 19 in F/R count
-25
Rank 7 in % Advanced
-25

14. 100
School-wide Math
F/R rank – WKCE Adv. rank
50
85
78
70 70
59 60
50
43
33 36
29
18 21
9 14 14
0 -2 -1 -1 3
-6 -3
-29
-50 -49
-74 -71
-89 -85
-50 -100
-132
-100
PdC beat the odds
Rank second overall in CESA 3
in overall F/R rank – Adv. rank
-150

15. As noted in the beginning, we need
to be careful as to what conclusions
can be gained from this data.
However, when analyzing programs
or materials, it might be prudent to
look toward those who are beating
the odds