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Ushering in Smart Transport
May 2018
Ajay Arora
Internal Combustion Engines – the Silent killer ?
Emissions controversy (Europe & US) – Demise of Diesel ?
India to Switch to all-electric cars by 2030
Tesla, the Electric Car manufacturer overtakes the Market
Cap of General Motors
One in every six cars sold in the world projected to be
electric by 2025 (UBS report)
Electric Vehicles (EVs) - the next big thing
Shared
Mobility
Electric
Vehicles
Autonomous
Vehicles
 Future of mobility, EVs are fitted with
onboard batteries which, unlike
conventional fuel tanks, can be
charged using electricity. These
batteries, in turn, store and use the
energy needed to power a set of
electric motors, which ultimately
propels the car forward.
 Because an electric car is devoid of
clutch, gearbox and even an exhaust
pipe, it is significantly quieter and
offers a smoother ride than
conventional gasoline-driven
vehicles. When fully charged, a
standard EV is capable of covering
somewhere between 150 km to 170
km before it needs to be recharged.
1837 1859 1897 1900-50
First known
Electric Car
(Scotland)
Rechargeable
Batteries
Invented
First Fleet of
EV Taxis
(Hummingbirds,
London)
Decline of EVs
(Lack of Charging
infra; Improvement
in ICEs)
2018 2008 2004 1997 onwards
EVs in new Avatar
Hybrids: Toyota,
Honda
EVs: Nissan, GM
Tesla starts
working on
Roadstar
Roadstar
Launched;
Production
challenges
continue
Tesla’s
Market Cap
overtakes GM
EVs
All Electric
Vehicles (AEVs)
Battery Electric
Vehicles (BEVs)
Fuel Cell
Electric
Vehicles
(FCEVs)
Plug-in Hybrid
Electric
Vehicles (PHEV)
*Conventional
Hybrids
*Conventional hybrids, unlike all others cannot be plugged in; they are fitted with Gasoline tank and
also have a battery pack which is charged onboard. Therefore they are not EVs, as such.
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
- Powered by Battery Charged
by Electricity from the grid
- Also capable of generating
electricity through
regenerative braking
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)
- Fuel cells in vehicles generate
electricity to power the motor,
generally using oxygen from the air
and compressed hydrogen.
- Zero-emissions vehicles, emit only
water and heat
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs )
- Battery is used to Power the Electric Motor and Gasoline drives the
Internal Combustion Engine
- Certain PHEVs are also known as Extended Range Electric Vehicles
(EREV), with engine switching on after the battery is depleted
Most of the development happening around BEVs & PHEVs
though a few working on FCEVs as well
No Fuel, Cheaper To Maintain
• Drastically reduces TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
More Eco-Friendly, Lower Carbon Footprint
• Though the source of electricity is also of importance in case of EVs
Less Noise Pollution, Smoother Ride
• Devoid of internal combustion engines and, in general, have less
number of components, electric vehicles are silent than
conventional vehicles.
As an added advantage, electric motors, being lighter, offer a
smoother drive with higher acceleration over longer distances than
cars running on fossil fuels
EVs to match the convenience of the gasoline car is
important for people to buy an electric car
 New OEMs : BYD in China
(Upgraders from Battery Manufacturing)
 System integrators likely to be winners
(Battery pack, Electric drive, Power electronics & Vehicle interface control)
 The Auto Component Industry : Ready for a shakeup
(Engine & Exhaust system components to become obsolete;
Transmission to undergo significant changes)
 After Sales : Less wear and tear due to 80% fewer moving parts thus
negatively impacting aftersales business
 Global electric vehicle fleet surpassed 1 Million in 2015, later doubled in 2016
 Norway has the highest penetration - electric and hybrid vehicles accounted
52% of its total car sales in 2017
 China, France and the United Kingdom – 1.5% share of car market
 In terms of volume, China accounts for nearly 40% of the world’s total electric
car sales
(Chinese OEMs produced 43% of the 8.73 lac EVs built worldwide in 2016)
 With more than 200 Million electric two-wheelers, 3.3 to 4 Million low-speed
electric vehicles (LSEVs) and over 300K electric buses (as of 2017), China is
currently the global leader in the electric mobility race
 Governments across the world pushing for EVs – only Electric
Vehicles in India by 2030, being targeted by Indian government
 Annual growth (CAGR) of 28.3% projected between 2017 &
2026 - 10.8 Million units globally by 2026 (BIS Research)
 A robust charging infra is a must
 Two main types of plug-in charging stations:
• AC - supplies current to the on-board
vehicle charger; typically offers 8 to 24
km range per 30 minutes of charging
• DC – directly charges the car’s battery;
up to 129 km of electric range for every
30 minutes charge
 Fast charging (more than 40 kW) -delivers
over 100 km of a range within 10 to 30
minutes. Currently, it takes a little over an
hour to fully charge a Tesla car at one of the
firm’s supercharging stations.
 Global EV charging infrastructure market is expected to reach $45.59
billion by 2025
 Within this sector, the fast charging segment is poised to witness the
fastest growth, with an estimated CAGR of around 47.9% from 2017
to 2025 (Grand View Research)
EV charging stations are often installed by utility companies as
on-street facilities, shopping centres, public destinations &
even workplaces
 Range Anxiety, Lack Of Charging Infrastructure
• Despite the massive technological advancements, EV charging infrastructure
remains inadequate in most parts of the world. Furthermore, most electric cars
have a range that falls between 150 to 175 km on a single charge. Hence
range anxiety among car owners
 Long Charging Times
• Charging process of EVs can take anywhere from 30 minutes (in case of fast
charging) up to 24 hours, depending on the capacity of the battery and motors.
Most, however, take around four to six hours to be fully charged, which is
several times longer than the time it takes to refuel a petrol/diesel car
 Lower Battery Life, High Battery Costs
• The batteries currently used in electric vehicles have a lifespan of only around
three to 10 years, depending on the make and model. The lower battery life
often serves as a hindrance that affects the performance of electric cars. The
higher costs of batteries, which are caused by the insufficient supply of raw
materials, add to this problem
Battery costs around 70% of EV prices; likely to reduce to 30% over
next decade or so
 Battery Swapping – much faster way of bringing range in car; Tesla has
filed a patent for a new battery swapping robot that can lift a vehicle
and change its battery pack for a new one in just 15 minutes
 Wireless Charging – could completely eliminate Range anxiety;
Magnetic Resonance (oscillating magnetic field) could be the name of
the game
 Battery technology – from Lithium-ion to Lithium-sulphur and Metal-air
batteries
These and many more opportunities in the Disrupted Mobility space
aroraajay@gmail.com
Assisting in Visualising future Opportunities

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Electric vehicles

  • 1. Ushering in Smart Transport May 2018 Ajay Arora
  • 2. Internal Combustion Engines – the Silent killer ? Emissions controversy (Europe & US) – Demise of Diesel ? India to Switch to all-electric cars by 2030 Tesla, the Electric Car manufacturer overtakes the Market Cap of General Motors One in every six cars sold in the world projected to be electric by 2025 (UBS report)
  • 3. Electric Vehicles (EVs) - the next big thing Shared Mobility Electric Vehicles Autonomous Vehicles
  • 4.  Future of mobility, EVs are fitted with onboard batteries which, unlike conventional fuel tanks, can be charged using electricity. These batteries, in turn, store and use the energy needed to power a set of electric motors, which ultimately propels the car forward.  Because an electric car is devoid of clutch, gearbox and even an exhaust pipe, it is significantly quieter and offers a smoother ride than conventional gasoline-driven vehicles. When fully charged, a standard EV is capable of covering somewhere between 150 km to 170 km before it needs to be recharged.
  • 5. 1837 1859 1897 1900-50 First known Electric Car (Scotland) Rechargeable Batteries Invented First Fleet of EV Taxis (Hummingbirds, London) Decline of EVs (Lack of Charging infra; Improvement in ICEs) 2018 2008 2004 1997 onwards EVs in new Avatar Hybrids: Toyota, Honda EVs: Nissan, GM Tesla starts working on Roadstar Roadstar Launched; Production challenges continue Tesla’s Market Cap overtakes GM
  • 6. EVs All Electric Vehicles (AEVs) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) *Conventional Hybrids *Conventional hybrids, unlike all others cannot be plugged in; they are fitted with Gasoline tank and also have a battery pack which is charged onboard. Therefore they are not EVs, as such.
  • 7. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) - Powered by Battery Charged by Electricity from the grid - Also capable of generating electricity through regenerative braking Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) - Fuel cells in vehicles generate electricity to power the motor, generally using oxygen from the air and compressed hydrogen. - Zero-emissions vehicles, emit only water and heat Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs ) - Battery is used to Power the Electric Motor and Gasoline drives the Internal Combustion Engine - Certain PHEVs are also known as Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV), with engine switching on after the battery is depleted Most of the development happening around BEVs & PHEVs though a few working on FCEVs as well
  • 8. No Fuel, Cheaper To Maintain • Drastically reduces TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) More Eco-Friendly, Lower Carbon Footprint • Though the source of electricity is also of importance in case of EVs Less Noise Pollution, Smoother Ride • Devoid of internal combustion engines and, in general, have less number of components, electric vehicles are silent than conventional vehicles. As an added advantage, electric motors, being lighter, offer a smoother drive with higher acceleration over longer distances than cars running on fossil fuels EVs to match the convenience of the gasoline car is important for people to buy an electric car
  • 9.  New OEMs : BYD in China (Upgraders from Battery Manufacturing)  System integrators likely to be winners (Battery pack, Electric drive, Power electronics & Vehicle interface control)  The Auto Component Industry : Ready for a shakeup (Engine & Exhaust system components to become obsolete; Transmission to undergo significant changes)  After Sales : Less wear and tear due to 80% fewer moving parts thus negatively impacting aftersales business
  • 10.  Global electric vehicle fleet surpassed 1 Million in 2015, later doubled in 2016  Norway has the highest penetration - electric and hybrid vehicles accounted 52% of its total car sales in 2017  China, France and the United Kingdom – 1.5% share of car market  In terms of volume, China accounts for nearly 40% of the world’s total electric car sales (Chinese OEMs produced 43% of the 8.73 lac EVs built worldwide in 2016)  With more than 200 Million electric two-wheelers, 3.3 to 4 Million low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) and over 300K electric buses (as of 2017), China is currently the global leader in the electric mobility race  Governments across the world pushing for EVs – only Electric Vehicles in India by 2030, being targeted by Indian government  Annual growth (CAGR) of 28.3% projected between 2017 & 2026 - 10.8 Million units globally by 2026 (BIS Research)
  • 11.  A robust charging infra is a must  Two main types of plug-in charging stations: • AC - supplies current to the on-board vehicle charger; typically offers 8 to 24 km range per 30 minutes of charging • DC – directly charges the car’s battery; up to 129 km of electric range for every 30 minutes charge  Fast charging (more than 40 kW) -delivers over 100 km of a range within 10 to 30 minutes. Currently, it takes a little over an hour to fully charge a Tesla car at one of the firm’s supercharging stations.  Global EV charging infrastructure market is expected to reach $45.59 billion by 2025  Within this sector, the fast charging segment is poised to witness the fastest growth, with an estimated CAGR of around 47.9% from 2017 to 2025 (Grand View Research) EV charging stations are often installed by utility companies as on-street facilities, shopping centres, public destinations & even workplaces
  • 12.  Range Anxiety, Lack Of Charging Infrastructure • Despite the massive technological advancements, EV charging infrastructure remains inadequate in most parts of the world. Furthermore, most electric cars have a range that falls between 150 to 175 km on a single charge. Hence range anxiety among car owners  Long Charging Times • Charging process of EVs can take anywhere from 30 minutes (in case of fast charging) up to 24 hours, depending on the capacity of the battery and motors. Most, however, take around four to six hours to be fully charged, which is several times longer than the time it takes to refuel a petrol/diesel car  Lower Battery Life, High Battery Costs • The batteries currently used in electric vehicles have a lifespan of only around three to 10 years, depending on the make and model. The lower battery life often serves as a hindrance that affects the performance of electric cars. The higher costs of batteries, which are caused by the insufficient supply of raw materials, add to this problem Battery costs around 70% of EV prices; likely to reduce to 30% over next decade or so
  • 13.  Battery Swapping – much faster way of bringing range in car; Tesla has filed a patent for a new battery swapping robot that can lift a vehicle and change its battery pack for a new one in just 15 minutes  Wireless Charging – could completely eliminate Range anxiety; Magnetic Resonance (oscillating magnetic field) could be the name of the game  Battery technology – from Lithium-ion to Lithium-sulphur and Metal-air batteries These and many more opportunities in the Disrupted Mobility space