Toys and Games: Global Trends, Developments and Prospects
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This presentation, originally given at the Hong Kong Toys and Games Fair 2015, address some of the major macro drivers affecting toys and games sales globally including economic and demographic trends. It also includes findings from Euromonitor International’s global research focusing on the performance of traditional toys and games, video games and digital gaming in key markets worldwide, providing data and commentary.
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Toys and Games: Global Trends, Developments and Prospects
- 1. © Euromonitor International 1TOYS AND GAMES HONG KONG TOYS & GAMES FAIR TOYS AND GAMES: GLOBAL TRENDS, DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS JANUARY 2015 UTKU TANSEL, HEAD OF TOYS AND GAMES
- 2. © Euromonitor International 2TOYS AND GAMES ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY CATEGORY ANALYSIS KEY INSIGHTS CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 3. © Euromonitor International 3TOYS AND GAMES Which Countries Have the Highest-Spending Middle Class Households? ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
- 4. © Euromonitor International 4TOYS AND GAMES 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 DiscretionarySpendasaProportionof ConsumerExpenditure(%) China India Russia Brazil BRIC as Large Consumer Markets with Rising Discretionary Spending ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK Note: Discretionary spending is spending on all items other than food, non-alcoholic beverages and housing Discretionary Spend as a Proportion of Consumer Expenditure in BRIC: 2005 – 2030, % Growing middle class and rising disposable income
- 5. © Euromonitor International 5TOYS AND GAMES India to Replace China as World’s Largest Population ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
- 6. © Euromonitor International 6TOYS AND GAMES ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY CATEGORY ANALYSIS KEY INSIGHTS CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 7. © Euromonitor International 7TOYS AND GAMES -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 %growth,constant US$billion(RSP) Global Toys and Games Sales 2008-2018, Rsp Size Growth Accelerating Global Growth TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY Forecast
- 8. © Euromonitor International 8TOYS AND GAMES Asia Pacific Set to Become World’s Largest Traditional Toys Market TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ValueSales,US$million Western Europe North America Asia Pacific Latin America Traditional Toys and Games Value Sales, Rsp, Largest Regions
- 9. © Euromonitor International 9TOYS AND GAMES North America: Flat Sales in World’s Largest Toys Region TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Growth(%) North America Toys and Games Growth, 2008 – 2013, Rsp,% Traditional Toys and Games Video Games 0 5 10 15 20 Dolls & Accessories Games & Puzzles Pre-School (3-4 Year Old) Scientific/Educational Toys Action Figures & Accessories Arts & Crafts Construction Toys Growth (%) US Traditional Toys and Games, Top Performing Categories, 2013 - 2018, Rsp, % $306m $146m $80m $32m $107m $98m $124m
- 10. © Euromonitor International 10TOYS AND GAMES Latin America: Still Rocks TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growth(%) ValueSales,US$million Latin America Traditional Toys and Games Value Sales and Growth, Rsp 862 2,860 3,967 5,696 Latin America Toys and Games Value Sales by Country, 2013, US$ million, Rsp Argentina Brazil Mexico Other Latin America
- 11. © Euromonitor International 11TOYS AND GAMES -20 -10 0 10 20 Baby Infant Pre-School Action Figures & Access. Arts & Crafts Construction Dolls & Access. Dressing-Up & Role Play Games & Puzzles Model Vehicles Outdoor & Sports Plush Radio/Remote Control Ride-On Vehicles Scientific/Educational Other Traditional TG Eastern Europe: Russia Continues to Dominate Sales TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY Russia Traditional Toys and Games 2013, % Growth, Rsp 504 1,046 239 3,147 1,055 Eastern Europe TG Sales by Country, US$ million, 2013 Ukraine Poland Romania Russia $335m $275m 0 5 10 15 Traditional Toys and Games Video Games Russia Toys and Games Growth, %, Rsp 2013 to 2018 CAGR 2013
- 12. © Euromonitor International 12TOYS AND GAMES Western Europe: Stagnates, Turkey Shines TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Growth(%) US$million Western Europe Traditional Toys and Games Sales and Growth, 2013, Rsp Turkey Spain UK France Germany Italy Sweden NL CH
- 13. © Euromonitor International 13TOYS AND GAMES ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY CATEGORY ANALYSIS KEY INSIGHTS CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 14. © Euromonitor International 14TOYS AND GAMES Arts and Crafts Action Figures and Accessories Scientific/Educational Construction Dolls and Accessories Games and Puzzles Infant Toys (19-36 Months) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2013Growth,Rsp,% 2013 – 2018 CAGR, % World Traditional Toys and Games Value Sales , Selected Categories Construction and Dolls to Drive Growth in Absolute Terms CATEGORY ANALYSIS Note: Bubble size represents value sales RSP, from US$2.7 billion to 9.9 billion
- 15. © Euromonitor International 15TOYS AND GAMES Kids’ Tablets: One of the Most Dynamic in New Product Developments CATEGORY ANALYSIS
- 16. © Euromonitor International 16TOYS AND GAMES Blurring Boundaries Between Platforms CATEGORY ANALYSIS
- 17. © Euromonitor International 17TOYS AND GAMES Cross Platform Collaborations Are on the Rise CATEGORY ANALYSIS
- 18. © Euromonitor International 18TOYS AND GAMES ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY CATEGORY ANALYSIS KEY INSIGHTS CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 19. © Euromonitor International 19TOYS AND GAMES Toys Very Licence Driven… KEY INSIGHTS
- 20. © Euromonitor International 20TOYS AND GAMES …Especially Action Figures KEY INSIGHTS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Action Figures and Accessories Dolls and Accessories Model Vehicles Plush Toys % Russia Turkey Japan UK Penetration of Licensed Toys, Selected Categories, 2013, %, RSP
- 21. © Euromonitor International 21TOYS AND GAMES 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US$million %y-on-ygrowth Video Games Hardware Video Games Software Digital Gaming Video Games Hardware Packaged video games software Digital gaming KEY INSIGHTS Video Games: Where is The Console Cycle? World Static and Hand-held Consoles Value Growth (% Rsp)
- 22. © Euromonitor International 22TOYS AND GAMES Global Mobile Phones Volume Sales, ‘000 units Global Laptops vs Tablets Volume Sales, ‘000 units Phenomenal Growth in Smartphones & Tablets Stimulate Digital Gaming KEY INSIGHTS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 MillionUnits Laptops Tablets 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 MillionUnits Feature Phones Smartphones
- 23. © Euromonitor International 23TOYS AND GAMESKEY INSIGHTS Video Games: Key Developments Console Wars Asia: Trend Towards Subscription Model Enter the Matrix: Virtual Reality Arrives
- 24. © Euromonitor International 24TOYS AND GAMES ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY CATEGORY ANALYSIS KEY INSIGHTS CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 25. © Euromonitor International 25TOYS AND GAMES 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Argentina Brazil Turkey US Germany Malaysia Italy Hong Kong Poland Taiwan Ukraine South Africa Sweden 2008 2013 Traditional Toys Stores: Most are Declining/Static But Still Important CHANNEL ANALYSIS Toy Sales Through Traditional Toy Stores, %, Rsp, Selected Markets
- 26. © Euromonitor International 26TOYS AND GAMES Grocery Continues to Muscles in Traditional Toys and Games CHANNEL ANALYSIS
- 27. © Euromonitor International 27TOYS AND GAMES 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2010 2015 2020 Half of Internet Users Will be in Asia by 2020 Western Europe North America Middle East and Africa Latin America Eastern Europe Australasia Asia Pacific Internet Sales Reach New Heights CHANNEL ANALYSIS % of Traditional Toys Sold Through Internet, Selected Markets 0 5 10 15 20 25 China India Japan South Korea Taiwan Russia Brazil US France Germany Spain Sweden Turkey UK % (RSP) 2013 2008
- 28. © Euromonitor International 28TOYS AND GAMES Video Games Distribution: Internet Gains Media Products Stores Suffer CHANNEL ANALYSIS 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Share(%) Share of Media Products Stores in Video Games Value Sales, %, Rsp Brazil Japan Spain United Kingdom Russia South Korea
- 29. © Euromonitor International 29TOYS AND GAMES THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Utku Tansel – utku.tansel@euromonitor.com