Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Demo Version - Forecasts
1. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Characteristics of the hotel supply in the Netherlands 2
2. Hotel performance indicators for 2015 and 2016 3
2.1. Recent results for corporate chain hotels 3
2.1.1. Performance indicators in 2013 (Average daily rates and RevPAR in euros not incl. taxes) 3
2.1.2. Monthly changes in occupancy rates, average daily rates and RevPARs by category from January
2009 to October 2014 3
2.2. Forecasts 2015 and 2016 5
3. Focus on Amsterdam 7
3.1. Change in the hotel supply 7
3.2. Amsterdam forecasts (Average daily rates and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes) 7
2. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com2
1. Characteristics of the hotel supply in the Netherlands
The Netherlands’ supply is developing quickly thanks to corporate chains:
4,550 additional rooms were created between 2009 and 2014.
The Netherlands is the European country where corporate chains are the most
developed with respect to the global hotel supply: they represent close to 66%
of the global supply in 2014.
Recent growth of the supply has been mostly driven by the mid- and upscale
categories. Generally speaking, the hotel supply is rising in range.
Change in the global supply
2009 2014 Change 2014/2009
Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms %
Budget 371 5,511 328 4,550 -961 -17.4%
Economy 596 12,983 524 10,694 -2 289 -17.6%
Midscale 1,025 50,146 1,073 50,843 697 1.4%
Upscale 189 18,910 239 26,014 7,104 37.6%
Total 2,181 87,550 2,164 92,101 4,551 5.2%
Breakdown of the global supply
by category
SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale,
U&L : upscale and luxury
Change in the corporate chain supply
2008 2013 Evolution 2013/2008
Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms %
Budget 44 310 64 656 346 111.6%
Economy 44 4,559 40 4,436 -123 -2.7%
Midscale 299 28,817 330 32,708 3,891 13.5%
Upscale 80 14,511 171 22,918 8,407 57.9%
Total 427 48,197 547 60,718 12,521 26.0%
Breakdown of the corporate
chain supply by category
SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale,
U&L : upscale and luxury
Market share of corporate chains
Penetration rate 2009 Penetration rate 2014 European average
Budget 5.6% 14.4% 24.2%
Economy 35.1% 41.5% 19.7%
Midscale 57.5% 64.3% 25.8%
Upscale 76.7% 88.1% 37.5%
Total 55.1% 65.9% 28.1%
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Hotel supply shows
strong growth
3. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com3
2. Hotel performance indicators for 2015 and 2016
2.1. Recent results for corporate chain hotels
2.1.1. Performance indicators in 2013 (Average daily rates and RevPAR in euros not incl. taxes)
The hotel sector in the Netherlands is marked by important variations in
performance as it is very sensitive to the economic environment resulting from
the country’s high international exposure.
After a downturn in occupancy rates in 2008 and especially in 2009, these
bounced back in 2010 and 2011. However, levels reached still remain
decidedly lower than in the pre-crisis period (higher than 71% in 2006
and 2007). The recovery in ADR is stronger in the upscale segment from 2010,
whereas the economy and midscale segments waited until 2011 to increase
their prices more significantly.
The slump in economic activity in Europe and the Netherlands once again weighs on occupancy rates in 2012. Average
daily rates, which are sensitive to the economic situation, are also keeping in step. The economy and midscale categories
are the most affected.
2013 is the beginning of the recovery. While average daily rates continue their downtrend on the economy and midscale
segments, occupancy rates increase more significantly except in the midscale category.
Annual hotel performance indicators in 2013
(average daily rates and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes)
Occ. rate
2013
Change Pts
Average daily
rates 2013
Change % RevPAR 2013 Change %
Economy 71.0% 2.3 72.8 -2.6% 51.7 0.7%
Midscale 65.4% 0.3 81.7 -3.6% 53.5 -3.2%
Upscale 70.5% 1.7 128.4 1.3% 90.5 3.9%
Total 67.8% 1.1 99.0 -1.0% 67.1 0.5%
2.1.2. Monthly changes in occupancy rates, average daily rates and RevPARs by category from
January 2009 to October 2014
During the crisis in 2012, the economy segment shows the first signs of a
turnaround followed by the midscale segment. On the beginning of 2013,
average daily rates remain on a downtrend in all categories except the upscale
segment.
In 2013, performances bounced back in the second semester and continue in
2014. Growth in the performances, particularly in occupancy rates, is slower
in the second semester of 2014 due to a comparison with the previous year,
as the beginning of the recovery started in mid-2013. The upscale category
shows an increase in ADR whereas economy and midscale prices do not
record any rise in 2014.
Monthly history across all categories
Source: MKG Hospitality Database
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
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Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
OR change ADR change RevPAR change
High sensitivity to
the economic
situation
Improved
performance
continues in 2014
5. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com5
2.2. Forecasts 2015 and 2016
Being particularly sensitive to the international economic situation, results
improved in 2011 thanks to strong international demand.
2012 and 2013 are characterized by a downturn in investments and in
household consumption due to restrictive policies to restore the budgetary
balance.
2
The trend shows the reversal of the downward trend: the Netherlands record growth in the GDP similar to the Euro Zone’s.
This growth is mainly driven by international demand, which is expected to continue to rise in the two next years. Companies
support economic recovery by increasing investments after two years of contraction. However household consumption
remains subdued notably due to a growing unemployment rate, and should rise again only from 2015.
Growth in the RevPAR expected in 2014 is made possible by the rise in occupancy rates and the beginning of the recovery
in prices, and should get stronger in 2015. The context of a country’s economic recovery and an increase in domestic
demand (from both business investment and household consumption perspectives) could allow average prices to rise again,
notably in economy and midscale categories.
Economic forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014
2015 (f) 2016 (f)
EU OECD EU OECD
Growth in the GDP 1.7% -1.6% -0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6%
Household consumption 0.2% -1.4% -1.6% 0% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4%
GFCF 5.6% -6% -4% 2.1% 3.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.5%
Exports 4.4% 3.3% 2% 3.4% 3.3% 4%-- 4.6% 3.8%
Unemployment rate 4.4% 5.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% ------ 6.7% ------
Growth in GDP in the Euro
Zone
1.6% -0.7% -0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%
Source : European Economic Forecast Autumn 2014, OECD Economic Outlook 94, Projection, November 2014
Changes in the RevPAR and GDP, observed from 2000 to 2014 and forecasted for 2015 and 2016 in the Netherlands
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
GDP variationRevPAR variation
RevPAR GDP
A recovery in
investment and
international demand
6. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com6
Forecasts across all categories
YTD
10/2014
2014 2015 2016
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Occupancy
rate
71.9% 70.5% 70.5% 70.6% 72.4% 72.9% 73.4% 74.4% 75.4% 76.4%
Change in
point
2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.8 1.6 2.6 3.6
Average Daily
Rate
101.4 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.4 102.1 102.9 103.0 103.8 104.6
Change in % 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 2.4%
RevPAR 72.9 71.3 71.4 71.5 73.3 74.4 75.5 76.7 78.3 79.9
Change in % 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 2.7% 4.2% 5.7% 3.1% 5.2% 7.4%
Forecasts for the economy category
YTD
10/2014
2014 2015 2016
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Occupancy
rate
77.1% 74.0% 74.0% 74.1% 76.0% 76.5% 77.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0%
Change in
point
3.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.5 1.5 2.5
Average Daily
Rate
74.2 73.1 73.2 73.3 74.8 75.4 76.0 76.3 76.9 77.5
Change in % 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 2.2% 3.0% 3.8% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8%
RevPAR 57.2 54.1 54.2 54.3 56.9 57.7 58.5 58.8 60.0 61.2
Change in % 5.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 1.9% 4.0% 6.1%
Forecasts for the midscale category
YTD
10/2014
2014 2015 2016
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Occupancy
rate
68.9% 67.8% 67.8% 67.9% 69.8% 70.3% 70.8% 72.3% 73.3% 74.3%
Change in
point
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Average Daily
Rate
82.7 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 81.2 81.9 82.5
Change in % -1.5% -1.4% -1.3% -1.2% -0.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.2% 1.0% 1.8%
RevPAR 57.0 54.6 54.7 54.8 56.2 57.0 57.8 58.8 60.0 61.3
Change in % 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 4.2% 5.7% 3.1% 5.3% 7.5%
Forecasts for the upscale and luxury category
YTD
10/2014
2014 2015 2016
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Occupancy
rate
72.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.9% 73.5% 74.0% 74.5% 75.5% 76.5% 77.5%
Change in
point
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 1.5 2.5 3.5
Average Daily
Rate
127.3 130.8 131.0 131.1 131.0 132.0 133.0 133.6 134.7 135.7
Change in % 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8%
RevPAR 92.7 93.9 94.1 94.2 96.3 97.7 99.1 100.9 103.0 105.2
Change in % 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 2.4% 3.9% 5.4% 3.3% 5.4% 7.6%
7. Hotel forecasts 2015-2016 / The Netherlands
MKG Hospitality Paris - London - Berlin - Nicosia 2015 Edition
www.mkg-group.com7
3. Focus on Amsterdam
3.1. Change in the hotel supply
We may observe growth in the global supply by more than 5,500 rooms in
Amsterdam across 5 years, primarily driven by corporate chains. These
represent close to 85% of the hotel supply in 2013.
Change in the global supply
2009 2014 Evolution 2014/2009
Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms %
Global including: 286 18,021 333 25,038 7,017 38.9%
Corporate chains 65 11,932 117 21,764 9,832 82.4%
Independent 221 6,089 216 3,274 -2,815 -46.2%
Breakdown by category of the
corporate chain supply
SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale,
U&L : upscale and luxury
3.2. Amsterdam forecasts (Average daily rates and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes)
Amsterdam suffered in 2012 from a drop in occupancy rates due to important
growth in the supply (+19.4% in 2012), which also led to stronger competition
and a drop in average daily rates.
This trend continued in 2013 as the stabilization of occupancy rates was not
compensated by the drop in average daily rates. The situation improved in the
second semester 2013 and then in 2014 thanks to an increased tourist appeal
of the city (reopening of the Rijksmuseum and the Van Gogh Museum in 2013)
which make the arrivals increase. Average prices increase significantly in 2014
and this trend could continue in 2015, driving growth in the RevPAR.
Forecasts for all categories
YTD
10/2014
2014 2015 2016
2013 Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Low
hypothesis
Intermedia-
te scenario
High
hypothesis
Occupancy
rate
77.9% 80.6% 79.4% 79.9% 80.4% 80.9% 81.9% 82.9% 83.4% 84.4% 85.4%
Change in
point
2.8 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 2.5 3.5
Average Daily
Rate
116.2 116.8 117.0 117.9 118.7 120.3 121.2 122.1 125.1 126.1 127.0
Change in % -0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.9% 3.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4.8%
RevPAR 90.6 94.1 92.9 94.2 95.5 97.3 99.3 101.3 104.4 106.4 108.5
Change in % 3.6% 3.7% 2.5% 4.0% 5.4% 3.4% 5.4% 7.5% 5.1% 7.2% 9.3%
Sér
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B…
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E…Sér
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M…
Sér
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U…
B
E
M
U&L
The reopening of
major tourist venues
and international
demand helps bring
back growth
Corporate chains
dominate the market