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ETFs - A new investment frontier
SIDDHARTH CHAKRAVARTY
DISCUSSION POINTS
Investment vehicles
Active vs Passive
Money management
Fund performance
Investors
Fund Selection
Data Analysis
Conclusion
INVESTMENT VEHICLES
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAG
More Risk = More Reward | Pooled investments | Diversification
You can win
big, with risky
investments
Savings in account
below inflation will be
safe, but will lose value
• Growth stocks
• Small Cap Stocks
• Mutual funds
• Corporate bonds
• Zero coupons bonds
• Futures, Options &
Derivatives
• Low rated bonds
• Mining, precious metals
• Blue chip stocks
• High rate
corporate
• US Bonds
• Saving
account
• Money
market
• CDs
• T-bills
Source: Fidelity
ALPHA GENERATION
Money
management
Individual
ACTIVE PASSIVE
Institution
ACTIVE FUND PASSIVE FUND
Deciding whether you prefer your investment ‘actively’ or ‘passively’ managed is an
important consideration
Image: Shutterstock
ACTIVE vs PASSIVE
Is it better to invest your money passively, or invest
your money with top management?
Active funds try to beat the market
Passive funds try to be the market
Exchange Traded Funds
(ETFs)
oHarnesses the power of the market –ETFs are funds that track indexes
like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 1000, etc.,
o ETFs combine the range of diversification with simplicity of trading a
single stock
o Low management fees and administrative costs
o Tax efficient because they are less likely to experience trading of
securities which can create potentially high capital gains distributions
o Flexible: priced and traded continuously throughout the trading day,
can be bought on margin, sold short or held for the long term
MUTUAL FUNDS
o Primary goal is to outperform their benchmarks or peer group
average
oNet asset value (NAV), fluctuates based on the value of the securities
held by the portfolio at the end of each business day
oExperience and expertise of a professional management team
oHigher management fees and other expenses
oLiquidity: all mutual funds allow you to buy or sell your fund shares
once a day at the close of the market at the fund's NAV
0 1 2 3
Vanguard
Pacific Investment
Capital
JP
FMR
Wellington
BlackRock Fund
T. Rowe
Northern…
US $ ( in trillions)
Manage US $16 T
(US GDP is ~ $17 T)
US Stocks
14%
Foreign
Stocks
6%
Bonds
50%
Short term
investments
30%
Typical Mutual fund basket Key players in Mutual fund market
Data source : Blackrock Mutual funds are the go-to investment vehicle
MONEY MANAGEMENT
You have to pay the Piper, Is it worth it ?
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES. Source: Data Provided By Morningstar Inc.
Mutual Fund expense ratio
1.460%
0.950%0.910%
0.180%
Average Weighted Avg.
Active Passive
Fund type Return Time (years) After 10 years
Active 5% 10 $ 14,174
Passive 5% 10 $ 14,945
$10,000 investment
Active Bond Funds Costs
$1.4 Billion Annually
MONEY MANAGEMENT
FUND PERFORMANCE
Data source : S&P500
91.91%
81.31%
84.62%
8.09%
19%
15%
One Year Three Year Five Year
% Funds underperformed % of Funds outperformed
Percentage Of Large-cap Funds that
underperformed the S&P 500®
(JUN 2016)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
The top 20 as of Dec. 31, 2005
Ranked by 10-year returns
The same 20 funds in the
subsequent 10-year period
Of the 20 best-performing actively managed U.S,
only SEVEN were better than average over the next
decade.
AVERAGE U.S.
STOCK FUND
PERFORMANCE
Data source : Morning star
INVESTORS have noticed
75
-10
10
-5
95
-75
15
-120
25
20
260
5
300
-120
400
-200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cash flow (in $US Billions) –
Invested in passive and active funds (2009-16)
• 2016 – investors put $600 billion more into passive funds than active funds.
10% increment in the number of
companies ownership of passive funds
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
S&P500companies
Data source : S&P500
PASSIVE
ACTIVE
Fund Sector Asset
allocation
Top Holdings Fees* Benchmark
Active
Vanguard 500 Index
Investor
Technology 98% US
stocks
US$316B
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN,
XOM
0.14% SP500
Vanguard 500 Index
Admiral
Technology
and Financial
98% US
stocks
US$ 315B
APPL, MSFT
WFC, BAC, JP
0.04% SP500
Vanguard Growth and
Income Fund Investor
Large Blend 99.7% US
stocks
US$ 7.4B
APPL, GOOG,
MSFT,JNJ, AMZN
0.34% SP500
Passive
SP500 ETF SPY Technology 99% US
stocks
US$ 53M
AAPL, MFT, AMZN,
FB
0.10% SP500
Financial sector SPDR Financial 99% US
stocks
US$ 64M
JPM, WFC, BOA,
Citi
0.14% SP500
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF Large Blend 99% US
stocks
US$ 109.2B
APPL, MSFT,
AMZN,FB, XOM
0.04% SP500
* Fees include Management fees, 12b-1 fees and other expenses
FUND SELECTION
1
•Import data in R and analyze data
distribution
2
•Calculate for active, passive and benchmark
•Performance measurement
3
•Performance measurements – NET of fees
4
•Relative performance to benchmark
5
•CAPM analysis
DATA ANALYSIS: POINTS TO NOTE
1. R software was used, packages include:
Quantmod – return analysis
PerformanceAnalytics – comparing performance
Other supplementary packages: Zoo, XTS, Fbasics
2. Data compiled from Yahoo Finance
3. Adjusted returns were used and benchmarked
against SP500 total returns
4. Transaction and broker fees are not included
5. Management fees are deducted from returns
(assuming 250 day trading)
ANALYSIS APPROACH
SPY VFINX SP500
Annualized Return 5.34% 5.27% 5.39%
Cumulative Return 77.20% 75.87% 78.07%
SPY VFINX SP500
Fees 0.8% 0.14%
Annualized Return 5.26% 5.12% 5.39%
Cumulative Return 75.63% 73.17% 78.07%
SPY VFINX
Passive Active
SPY VFINX
▽-1.57% ▽-2.70%
CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES
IVV VQNPX
Passive Active
IVV VQNPX SP500
Annualized Return 5.4% 4.69% 5.39%
Cumulative Return 78.2% 65.6% 78.07%
IVV VQNPX
▽-0.79% ▽- 6.1%
CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES
IVV VQNPX SP500
Fees 0.04% 0.34%
Annualized Return 5.36% 4.34% 5.39%
Cumulative Return 77.41 59.49% 78.07%
XLF VFIAX SP500
Annualized Return -4.7% 5.3% 5.39%
Cumulative Return -41.20% 77.9% 78.07%
XLF VFIAX SP500
Fees 0.14% 0.04%
Annualized Return -4.75% 5.02% 5.39%
Cumulative Return -41.47% 71.36% 78.07%
XLF VFIAX
Passive Active
XLF VFIAX
▽ -0.27% ▽ -6.54%
CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES
RELATIVE PASSIVE RETURNS
Relative performance of IVV to SP500
Relative performance of SPY to SP500
Relative performance of XLF to SP500
RELATIVE ACTIVE
RETURNS
Relative performance of VFIAX to SP500 Relative performance of VQNPX to SP500
Fund strategy Passive Active
Fund name SPY XLF IVV VFINX VFIAX VQNPX
Alpha 0 -0.0004 0 0 0 0
Beta 0.9854 1.4920 0.9742 0.9996 0.9996 0.9992
R-squared 0.9816 0.7637 0.9897 1 1 0.9932
Annualized Alpha -6.00E-04 -0.0868 0.0004 -0.0025 -0.0035 -0.0098
Correlation 0.9907 0.8739 0.9948 1 1 0.9966
Correlation p-value 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0.0000
Tracking Error 0.0273 0.1941 0.0207 0.0011 0.0011 0.0167
Active Premium -0.0013 -0.1007 -0.0004 -0.0026 -0.0036 -0.0104
Information Ratio -0.0479 -0.5189 -0.0170 -2.3531 -3.3226 -0.6252
Treynor Ratio 0.0394 -0.0399 0.0406 0.0296 0.0363 0.0296
Sharpe
Ratio(Rf=1.3%)
0.194
-
0.173995
0.2016 0.1871
0.181199
6
0.1473
CAPM ANALYSIS
The choice between active and passive funds is not binary, but
depends on the investors risk appetite and preferences.
Perhaps, the best option may not be a binary option - passive or
active. but a combination of both.
CONCLUSION
”After costs, the return on the average actively managed fun will be less than the return on passively
managed dollar for any period
William F Sharpe
1. Alison Wertheim, D. N. (2016). Inside the mind of ETF Investors. Charles Schwab. New York: Charles
Schwab.
2. Aye M. Soe, R. P. (2016). SPIVA® U.S. Scorecard. S&P Dow Jones Indices. New York: S&P Global.
3. Balchunas, E. (2016). The Institutional ETF Toolbox: How Institutions Can Understand and Utilize the Fast-
Growing World of ETFs. New York: Wiley.
4. Dieterich, C. (2016, December 2016). Year in Review: 2016 Saw Record Flows to Index Funds. Retrieved
from Wall Street Journal: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/12/29/2016-saw-record-flows-into-
index-funds-and-out-of-active-ones/
5. Joanne M. Hill, D. N. (2016). A Comprehensive guide to Exchange Traded funds (ETFs). New York: CFA
Institute Research Foundation.
6. Krouse, S. (2017, January 3). Fidelity Embraces What It Once Avoided: The ETF. Retrieved from Wall Street
Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-embraces-what-it-once-avoided-the-etf-1483444801
7. Nigel Brashaw, A. O. (n.d.). ETF 2020 Preparing for a new horizon. New York: Pricewaterhouse Coopers.
8. Sarah Krouse, S. J. (2016, October 17). Why Passive Investing is Overrunning Active, in Five Charts.
Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/graphics/passive-investing-five-charts/
9. What are ETFs? Retrieved from Nasdaq: http://www.nasdaq.com/etfs/what-are-ETFs.aspx
10. ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Tax Efficiency. Retrieved from: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-
center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency
11. Kennedy, Mark (2016, November 1). Learn About the Benefits ETFs Have for Your Tax Return. Retrieve
from: https://www.thebalance.com/etf-tax-advantages-over-mutual-funds-1215121
REFERENCES

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ETFs- A new investment frontier

  • 1. ETFs - A new investment frontier SIDDHARTH CHAKRAVARTY
  • 2. DISCUSSION POINTS Investment vehicles Active vs Passive Money management Fund performance Investors Fund Selection Data Analysis Conclusion
  • 3. INVESTMENT VEHICLES IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAG More Risk = More Reward | Pooled investments | Diversification You can win big, with risky investments Savings in account below inflation will be safe, but will lose value • Growth stocks • Small Cap Stocks • Mutual funds • Corporate bonds • Zero coupons bonds • Futures, Options & Derivatives • Low rated bonds • Mining, precious metals • Blue chip stocks • High rate corporate • US Bonds • Saving account • Money market • CDs • T-bills Source: Fidelity
  • 4. ALPHA GENERATION Money management Individual ACTIVE PASSIVE Institution ACTIVE FUND PASSIVE FUND Deciding whether you prefer your investment ‘actively’ or ‘passively’ managed is an important consideration Image: Shutterstock
  • 5. ACTIVE vs PASSIVE Is it better to invest your money passively, or invest your money with top management? Active funds try to beat the market Passive funds try to be the market
  • 6. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) oHarnesses the power of the market –ETFs are funds that track indexes like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 1000, etc., o ETFs combine the range of diversification with simplicity of trading a single stock o Low management fees and administrative costs o Tax efficient because they are less likely to experience trading of securities which can create potentially high capital gains distributions o Flexible: priced and traded continuously throughout the trading day, can be bought on margin, sold short or held for the long term
  • 7. MUTUAL FUNDS o Primary goal is to outperform their benchmarks or peer group average oNet asset value (NAV), fluctuates based on the value of the securities held by the portfolio at the end of each business day oExperience and expertise of a professional management team oHigher management fees and other expenses oLiquidity: all mutual funds allow you to buy or sell your fund shares once a day at the close of the market at the fund's NAV
  • 8. 0 1 2 3 Vanguard Pacific Investment Capital JP FMR Wellington BlackRock Fund T. Rowe Northern… US $ ( in trillions) Manage US $16 T (US GDP is ~ $17 T) US Stocks 14% Foreign Stocks 6% Bonds 50% Short term investments 30% Typical Mutual fund basket Key players in Mutual fund market Data source : Blackrock Mutual funds are the go-to investment vehicle MONEY MANAGEMENT
  • 9. You have to pay the Piper, Is it worth it ? IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES. Source: Data Provided By Morningstar Inc. Mutual Fund expense ratio 1.460% 0.950%0.910% 0.180% Average Weighted Avg. Active Passive Fund type Return Time (years) After 10 years Active 5% 10 $ 14,174 Passive 5% 10 $ 14,945 $10,000 investment Active Bond Funds Costs $1.4 Billion Annually MONEY MANAGEMENT
  • 10. FUND PERFORMANCE Data source : S&P500 91.91% 81.31% 84.62% 8.09% 19% 15% One Year Three Year Five Year % Funds underperformed % of Funds outperformed Percentage Of Large-cap Funds that underperformed the S&P 500® (JUN 2016) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% The top 20 as of Dec. 31, 2005 Ranked by 10-year returns The same 20 funds in the subsequent 10-year period Of the 20 best-performing actively managed U.S, only SEVEN were better than average over the next decade. AVERAGE U.S. STOCK FUND PERFORMANCE Data source : Morning star
  • 11. INVESTORS have noticed 75 -10 10 -5 95 -75 15 -120 25 20 260 5 300 -120 400 -200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cash flow (in $US Billions) – Invested in passive and active funds (2009-16) • 2016 – investors put $600 billion more into passive funds than active funds. 10% increment in the number of companies ownership of passive funds 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 S&P500companies Data source : S&P500 PASSIVE ACTIVE
  • 12. Fund Sector Asset allocation Top Holdings Fees* Benchmark Active Vanguard 500 Index Investor Technology 98% US stocks US$316B AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, XOM 0.14% SP500 Vanguard 500 Index Admiral Technology and Financial 98% US stocks US$ 315B APPL, MSFT WFC, BAC, JP 0.04% SP500 Vanguard Growth and Income Fund Investor Large Blend 99.7% US stocks US$ 7.4B APPL, GOOG, MSFT,JNJ, AMZN 0.34% SP500 Passive SP500 ETF SPY Technology 99% US stocks US$ 53M AAPL, MFT, AMZN, FB 0.10% SP500 Financial sector SPDR Financial 99% US stocks US$ 64M JPM, WFC, BOA, Citi 0.14% SP500 iShares Core S&P 500 ETF Large Blend 99% US stocks US$ 109.2B APPL, MSFT, AMZN,FB, XOM 0.04% SP500 * Fees include Management fees, 12b-1 fees and other expenses FUND SELECTION
  • 13. 1 •Import data in R and analyze data distribution 2 •Calculate for active, passive and benchmark •Performance measurement 3 •Performance measurements – NET of fees 4 •Relative performance to benchmark 5 •CAPM analysis DATA ANALYSIS: POINTS TO NOTE 1. R software was used, packages include: Quantmod – return analysis PerformanceAnalytics – comparing performance Other supplementary packages: Zoo, XTS, Fbasics 2. Data compiled from Yahoo Finance 3. Adjusted returns were used and benchmarked against SP500 total returns 4. Transaction and broker fees are not included 5. Management fees are deducted from returns (assuming 250 day trading) ANALYSIS APPROACH
  • 14. SPY VFINX SP500 Annualized Return 5.34% 5.27% 5.39% Cumulative Return 77.20% 75.87% 78.07% SPY VFINX SP500 Fees 0.8% 0.14% Annualized Return 5.26% 5.12% 5.39% Cumulative Return 75.63% 73.17% 78.07% SPY VFINX Passive Active SPY VFINX ▽-1.57% ▽-2.70% CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES
  • 15. IVV VQNPX Passive Active IVV VQNPX SP500 Annualized Return 5.4% 4.69% 5.39% Cumulative Return 78.2% 65.6% 78.07% IVV VQNPX ▽-0.79% ▽- 6.1% CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES IVV VQNPX SP500 Fees 0.04% 0.34% Annualized Return 5.36% 4.34% 5.39% Cumulative Return 77.41 59.49% 78.07%
  • 16. XLF VFIAX SP500 Annualized Return -4.7% 5.3% 5.39% Cumulative Return -41.20% 77.9% 78.07% XLF VFIAX SP500 Fees 0.14% 0.04% Annualized Return -4.75% 5.02% 5.39% Cumulative Return -41.47% 71.36% 78.07% XLF VFIAX Passive Active XLF VFIAX ▽ -0.27% ▽ -6.54% CUMULATIVE RETURNS – GROSS AND NET FEES
  • 17. RELATIVE PASSIVE RETURNS Relative performance of IVV to SP500 Relative performance of SPY to SP500 Relative performance of XLF to SP500
  • 18. RELATIVE ACTIVE RETURNS Relative performance of VFIAX to SP500 Relative performance of VQNPX to SP500
  • 19. Fund strategy Passive Active Fund name SPY XLF IVV VFINX VFIAX VQNPX Alpha 0 -0.0004 0 0 0 0 Beta 0.9854 1.4920 0.9742 0.9996 0.9996 0.9992 R-squared 0.9816 0.7637 0.9897 1 1 0.9932 Annualized Alpha -6.00E-04 -0.0868 0.0004 -0.0025 -0.0035 -0.0098 Correlation 0.9907 0.8739 0.9948 1 1 0.9966 Correlation p-value 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 Tracking Error 0.0273 0.1941 0.0207 0.0011 0.0011 0.0167 Active Premium -0.0013 -0.1007 -0.0004 -0.0026 -0.0036 -0.0104 Information Ratio -0.0479 -0.5189 -0.0170 -2.3531 -3.3226 -0.6252 Treynor Ratio 0.0394 -0.0399 0.0406 0.0296 0.0363 0.0296 Sharpe Ratio(Rf=1.3%) 0.194 - 0.173995 0.2016 0.1871 0.181199 6 0.1473 CAPM ANALYSIS
  • 20. The choice between active and passive funds is not binary, but depends on the investors risk appetite and preferences. Perhaps, the best option may not be a binary option - passive or active. but a combination of both. CONCLUSION ”After costs, the return on the average actively managed fun will be less than the return on passively managed dollar for any period William F Sharpe
  • 21. 1. Alison Wertheim, D. N. (2016). Inside the mind of ETF Investors. Charles Schwab. New York: Charles Schwab. 2. Aye M. Soe, R. P. (2016). SPIVA® U.S. Scorecard. S&P Dow Jones Indices. New York: S&P Global. 3. Balchunas, E. (2016). The Institutional ETF Toolbox: How Institutions Can Understand and Utilize the Fast- Growing World of ETFs. New York: Wiley. 4. Dieterich, C. (2016, December 2016). Year in Review: 2016 Saw Record Flows to Index Funds. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/12/29/2016-saw-record-flows-into- index-funds-and-out-of-active-ones/ 5. Joanne M. Hill, D. N. (2016). A Comprehensive guide to Exchange Traded funds (ETFs). New York: CFA Institute Research Foundation. 6. Krouse, S. (2017, January 3). Fidelity Embraces What It Once Avoided: The ETF. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-embraces-what-it-once-avoided-the-etf-1483444801 7. Nigel Brashaw, A. O. (n.d.). ETF 2020 Preparing for a new horizon. New York: Pricewaterhouse Coopers. 8. Sarah Krouse, S. J. (2016, October 17). Why Passive Investing is Overrunning Active, in Five Charts. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/graphics/passive-investing-five-charts/ 9. What are ETFs? Retrieved from Nasdaq: http://www.nasdaq.com/etfs/what-are-ETFs.aspx 10. ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Tax Efficiency. Retrieved from: https://www.fidelity.com/learning- center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency 11. Kennedy, Mark (2016, November 1). Learn About the Benefits ETFs Have for Your Tax Return. Retrieve from: https://www.thebalance.com/etf-tax-advantages-over-mutual-funds-1215121 REFERENCES