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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:
DIVIDENDS
All the share prices are in U.S. dollars, if reported in Euros or Yuan ,in case of
Sinopec (CNPC), they have been changed to USD with appropriate exchange rates
Number of shares outstanding are in millions
Equity outstanding are in millions USD
Return over Capital (ROC), Interest Coverage Ratios (ICR), Payout ratios are
unitless entities
Correlations of share prices are calculated and verified with available databases
Sources:
Refinitiv Eikon - Thomson Reuters
Macrotrends
Respective financial reports
Yahoo finance
1.
2.
3.
4.
Largest organizations in energy
industry by revenues in billion usd
based on data 2021
p
r
i
c
e
s
i
n
U
S
D
Share price volatility in Industry
ESTABLISHED 1870
INDUSTRY OIL AND GAS
REVENUE $178.57BILLION
ASSETS $332.75 BILLION
EQUITY $157.15 BILLION
S&P RATING AA-
FORTUNE 500 RANK 10
p
r
i
c
e
s
i
n
U
S
D
in
USD
DIVIDEND POLICY STABILITY
stable dividend
policy as is evident
by constantly
rising dividends
p
r
i
c
e
s
i
n
U
S
D
i
n
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
CHANGES IN CAPITAL
Payout ratio and profitability(ROC)
i
n
U
S
D
fluctuations are recorded
around the dates of
dividend payments,
recorded on the share
prices, overall change in
two days around dividend
payments
Dividend Payment's Impact
i
n
U
S
D
ESTABLISHED 1909
INDUSTRY OIL AND GAS
REVENUE $183.5 BILLION
ASSETS $267.65 BILLION
EQUITY $85.57 BILLION
S&P RATING A-
FORTUNE 500 RANK 18
British Petroleum
In
USD
DIVIDEND vs EPS vs PAYOUT RATIO
Deepwater Horizon oil spill 2010 in Gulf of Maxico-
Total clean up cost was $14bn.
BP had dropped from the second to the fourth
largest of the four major oil companies by 2013
$55 billion of costs from the oil spill in the Gulf of
Mexico in 2010, said it would cut 7,000 jobs by the
end of 2017, or nearly 9 percent of its workforce.
Global oil crisis 2020
In
USD
DEBT vs EQUITY AND SHARES OUTSTANDING
In
BILLIONS
In
BILLIONS
PRICE FLUCTUATION & ROC
Ratio
SHELL
Established 1907
Industry-Oil and Gas
Revenue-18,050 crores USD
Assets- $182.46Billion
Equity- $182.6 Billion
S&P Rating A+
Fortune 500 rank 19
SHELL
in
USD
Stable dividend policy is
evident
SHELL
in
millions
in
USD
SHELL
High dividend payout despite fluctuating EPS- the effect is
also seen in payout ratio
SHELL
No correlation is found
TOTAL ENERGIES
ESTABLISHED 1924
INDUSTRY OIL AND GAS
REVENUE $190BILLION
ASSETS $320.5 BILLION
EQUITY $115 BILLION
S&P RATING A
FORTUNE 500 RANK 52
DIVIDEND POLICY STABILITY
Despite high EPS, the company offers minuscule
dividends.
DEBT EQUITY v SHARES OUTSTANDING
DIVIDENDS v PAYOUTS
SHAREPRICE FLUCTUATIONS WITH DIVIDENDS
No correlation between share price
fluctauation and dividends.
CNPC (SINOPEC)
CNPC (SINOPEC)
CNPC (SINOPEC)
CNPC (SINOPEC)
CNPC (SINOPEC)
CORRELATION OF SHARE PRICES 2005-2021
XOM
BP
SHELL
CNPC
TOTAL
XOM BP SHELL CNPC
0.774639262
0.776076709
0.200274436
0.583792308
0.850475711
0.302321633
0.70309955
0.158105185
0.828609957 -0.201068996
ESTIMATION OF DIVIDENDS FROM REVENUES
Model representing the
flows through which the
firms estimate free cash
flow
SHARES BUYBACK TRENDS 2005 - 2021
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIOS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Companies in same industry show close correlation, in share prices, except outliers
when they are of different continents (political forces at play)
Share price fluctuation does not necessarily happen in magnitude of dividends
paid in real world
Share-repurchases they do increase the stock prices in the year they're exacted,
but other forces are at play
Personal Taxes and Dividends distribution tax force higher income groups to
forego dividends
ROC & Dividend payouts do not correlate in our data sample; thus giving the idea
dividends aren't the litmus test of a company's viability

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