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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
06 May 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
MAY 8218 8260 8170 8212 +0.22 8530
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8168
SUPP. 2
8124
PIVOT
8214
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8258
RES. 2
8304
CORIANDER
MAY 7000 7109 6950 7057 +0.71 7370
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6968
SUPP. 2
6880
PIVOT
7039
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7127
RES. 2
7198
GUARGUM
MAY 5700 5750 5550 5700 +0.18 22527
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5583
SUPP. 2
5467
PIVOT
5667
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5783
RES. 2
5867
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-

3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 5507 5431 +1.40
CORIANDER 7043 6988 +0.79
GUARGUM 5700 5690 +0.18
JEERA 16955 16975 -0.12
MUSTARD
SEED
4370 4382 -0.27
SOYABEAN 4088 4095 -0.17
TURMERIC 8300 8348 -0.57
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-05-2016 8288.00 -62.00 -0.74%
JEERA 20-05-2016 16920.00 -55.00 -0.32%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CHANA 2 MT 20-05-2016 5590.00 70.00 1.27%
CORIANDER 20-05-2016 7050.00 88.00 1.26%
CHANA 20-05-2016 5510.00 65.00 1.19%
GUAR SEED 10 MT 20-05-2016 3225.00 19.00 0.59%

4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has forecasted
the MY 2016/17 wheat production at 88 million metric tons (MMT) from
29.4 million hectare based on the initial harvest reports from the major
producing states. Despite the initial dry conditions, low temperature during
most of March and April supported grain setting in the standing crop.
Wheat harvesting began on time in most states unlike previous years where
harvest was delayed by 2-3 weeks due to untimely rains and/or extended
winter. Wheat harvest got over in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh
by early April, nearly over in Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh
and is currently in full swing in eastern India (East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
and West Bengal) to be over by first week of May.
Despite some speculation about yield likely to be affected by some
localized hailstorm in early April and relatively early rise in temperature
compared to previous years, USDA field travel to the major wheat
producing states of Punjab and Haryana suggest prospects for near-normal
yield (historical 4-year average excluding adverse weather affected MY
2015/16), but significantly higher than last year's untimely rain affected
wheat harvest. Market sources are speculating on the current year yield
realization in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and other wheat growing
states. However, reports from field trials by research organizations in
various states suggest current year yields are slightly lower than normal.
The early results of the government's crop cutting surveys for assessing
current crop yields are expected to be available from early June. USDA
will continue to monitor the harvest reports from field sources. At this
stage, USDA continues to forecast MY 2016/17 wheat yield at 3.0
MT/hectare (vs normal yield of 3.1 MT/hectare) and production at 88
MMT. The industry continues to speculate on the size of the upcoming
wheat crop from 81 MMT to 85 MMT against the government's second
advance estimate of 93.8 MMT. The government's third advance estimate
is likely to come out in the first fortnight of May wherein they may revise
the wheat numbers.
 Stockiest buying was continued in jeera market due to of strong
export demand from China and Bangladesh. The sources stated that
Bangladesh government has removed import duties from jeera which
raises the exporter's inquiries in local mandi. Moreover, strong export
orders from china due to limited stocks have also added gains in jeera
physical market. The NCDEX June Jeera futures increased by 1.37
percent to close at Rs 17145 per quintal.
 Mentha oil prices fell further by 0.29 per cent to Rs 863.10 per kg in
futures market today as participants engaged in reducing their
positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on subdued demand
from consuming industries. Besides, adequate stocks position on higher
supplies from producing regions put pressure on mentha oil prices.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in May
declined by Rs 2.50, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 863.10 per kg in a business
turnover of 142 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in far-month
June contracts edged lower by Rs 1.50, or 0.17 per cent to Rs 871 per
kg in 4 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in mentha oil futures to low
demand from consuming industries in the spot market against sufficient
stocks on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh.
 Cotton complex traded on mixed note due to steady demand
at c urrent market prices and reports of steady arrivals in the
physical market. NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed little higher
by 0.06 % while MCX cotton closed 0.17 % lower. The Cotton
Association of India (CAI) has cut production estimate
to 341 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) of the fiber in the 2015/16
season that started on October 1, from 342 lakh bales
estimated last month. Cotton prices have increased by Rs 1,000
per candy in past one week on the back of short supply. Good
demand from domestic mills coupled with expectation of fresh
export demand have helped push up cotton prices.

5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Castor Seed
CASTOR SEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
 India exported 8931.40 MT castor oil during week ended 1st May-2016 at
an average price of $1187.98 per MT. It is lower by 26.5.05% from previous
week. However, price realization has increased by 3.59% from last week. The
maximum and minimum prices were registered at $4417.01 and 508.08 per
MT. Castor oil export would continue to stay steady as prices are lower than
normal expectation and availability is higher. Major importers like China
followed by USA and Netherlands are stocking oil taking advantage of lower
price.  Castor cash markets continue to slip on weak inner tonne. Buyers
expect market to stabilize around Rs3100/3150 per qtl. Arrival has decreased
from last three days.I n lack of fundamental clue any unexpected gain is
unlikely. There is a gossip in the market that good rainfall this year may boost
yield despite expected decline in area. It would be better to wait for monsoon
that would decide area/yield for this year crop. All India average price for
castor seed decreased by 7.20 % from Rs 3558.35 to Rs 3301.88 per qtl during
the week ended on 30th April-2016. However, it is higher by 9.44% from the
price registered during the second week of April. When we compare average
price of seed from April-2015, it rules lower by 5.35 % from current average
price (Rs3301.88 per qtl.). Decrease in demand for seed at higher level
restricted firm tone during the week under review. However, more dip is
unlikely as pace for seed arrivals in markets has declined.
 In Patan market, castor seed prices are likely to trade down in near term.
Stock of castor seed is likely to increase by 20,000 bags compared to
corresponding period of last year. Last year castor seed stock was around 4
lakh bags.In Deesa market, prices are likely to trade firm in the near term.
Stock of castor seed could be around 2-3 lakh bags, same compared to
corresponding period of last year. Agricultural Statistics Division, Directorate
of Economics & Statistics, India has revised its Second Adv estimate for
foodgrains and estimated 17.27 lakh tonne castor seed production for 2015-16
crop year,to be marketed in MY 2016-17.
CENTER 4-MAY-15 3-MAY-15 Change
PATAN 15000 13500 1500
RAJKOT 450 500 -50
GONDAL 900 683 217
DEESA 3447 2700 747
MEHSANA 1500 750 750
KADI 4000 4240 -240
GANDHI
NAGAR
1425 1275 150

6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JUN BELOW 6910 TARGET 6865 6765 SL
ABOVE 6975
BUY GUARGUM JUN ABOVE 5750 TARGET 5800 5870 SL
BELOW 5690
SELL TURMERIC JUN BELOW 8160 TARGET 8116 8056 SL
ABOVE 8220

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