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Epic research daily agri report 30th may 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
30 May 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
JUNE 8002 8092 7930 8006 -1.18 6755
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7927
SUPP. 2
7847
PIVOT
8009
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8089
RES. 2
8171
CORIANDER
JUNE 6888 6915 6813 6901 +0.57 4640
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6837
SUPP. 2
6774
PIVOT
6876
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6940
RES. 2
6978
GUARGUM
JUNE 5150 5350 5070 5350 -1.18 6755
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5163
SUPP. 2
4977
PIVOT
5257
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5443
RES. 2
5537
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 6101 6086 +0.25
CORIANDER 6875 6862 +0.19
GUARGUM 5350 5150 +3.88
JEERA 16200 16120 +0.50
MUSTARD
SEED
4439 4399 +0.91
SOYABEAN 3937 3950 -0.33
TURMERIC 8016 8102 -1.06
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-06-2016 8016.00 -48.00 -0.60%
BARLEY 20-06-2016 1551.50 -2.50 -0.16%
CHANA 20-06-2016 6101.00 -4.00 -0.07%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
GUAR GUM 20-06-2016 5350.00 190.00 3.68%
REF SOYA OIL 20-06-2016 649.50 8.80 1.37%
JEERA 20-06-2016 16200.00 105.00 0.65%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The FAO of United Nations at the 22nd session of the Intergovernmental
Group on tea held at Naivasha, Kenya from 25th-27th May released its
report of the Working Group on Tea on Climate Change. India chairs the
working group on Climate Change on tea supported by Sri Lanka, China
and Kenya.The report states that as per advanced modeling studies
conducted by using general circulation models at TRA Tocklai, has shown
that tea growing regions in Kenya, Sri Lanka and NE India are quite
vulnerable to climate change and the adaptation measures need to be
adopted. The current adaptation measures need to be fine-tuned further
because of modelling studies to include adaptation measures on a macro as
well as micro scale - downscaling to tea garden scale level.The results of
these modeling studies should be translated by clustering gardens and small
holders in a region and adaptation measures should be adopted in a region
by all stakeholders together.In the report released authored by Dr RM
Bhagat of India, Dr M A Wijeratne of Sri Lanka, Dr John Bore of Kenya
and Dr Wenyan Han from China gives a roadmap for adaptation measures
for the tea industry in these countries.Some of the key suggestions are -
development of cultivars suitable for drought and water logging tolerance,
more reliance on seed based high yielding quality cultivars by major TRIs,
improving soil properties.The report suggests that fertilizers are
indispensable for higher yield, hence integrated nutrient management
should be done. More emphasis on water conservation in situ and adequate
shade, shelter belts in tea gardens, while taking all possible measure to
create humid conditions in the gardens to prolong the onset of drought, the
report adds.Capacity building of individuals and institutions, creating more
awareness to stakeholders specifically the small tea growers, the report
says.The 22nd session was attended by more than 20 tea producer and
consuming countries. The Indian delegation was led by Shri Santosh
Kumar Sarangi, Chairman, Tea Board of India and included major
stakeholders of the Indian tea industry numbering 16.
Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by on account of restricted
supplies from producing belts amid pick up in domestic demand. Prices
of palm oil were also up as Malaysia palm oil exports during May 1-25
jumped 8.46% compared to a month earlier on improved demand from
China, European Union and India & Subcontinent, data showed.
Malaysia palm oil exports jumped to 965,253 tons during May 1-25
compared to 889,944 tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones
reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor.Strong demand
ahead of Ramadan, a 30-day festival of Muslims which will begin from
June this year, also supported prices. Output of oil in Malaysia climbed
6.7% to 1.30 million tons in April end compared to 1.21 million tons a
month earlier, a data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board
showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council today predicted that palm oil
prices would firm up over the next five-six months and that
productivity is likely to be affected by about 10 per cent due to the El
Nino impact on its output and other oilseeds.
Ref Soya oil on NCDEX settled up by 0.2% at 640.75 tracking firm
spot demand as government is considering increasing import duty for
refine oil. Prices also seen supported taking cues from other edible oil
complexes and higher demand for festive season. Prices were also
supported by higher demand in domestic market from oil crusher ahead
of festival of Ramadan due in June. As per the latest report from United
States Department of Agriculture ( USDA), Global oilseed production
for 2016/17 is projected at 533.8 million tons, up 2.1 percent from
2015/16.Global soybean production is projected at 324.2 million tons,
up 8.3 million with gains for India, Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina,
partly offset by lower U.S. production.The Brazil soybean crop is
projected at103.0 million tons, up 4.0 million on higher area and yields.
According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India imported
12.30 lakh tons of edible oil in April 2016 compared to 10.98 lakh tons
in April 2015, higher by 12 percent y-o-y. Palm oil imports rose
marginally to 7.30 lakh tons in April compared to 7.25 lakh tons in
April 2015.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Chana
CHANA PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
According to the trade source, area of tur may increase this year as
comparison to last year in Maharashtra due to expected favorable condition
and higher market prevailing prices. Sowing in Maharashtra will begin in June
after initial rain. At present, Tur prices in Hinganghat mandi of Maharashtra is
in the range of Rs 8790- 8800 per bag with arrival of 2000-2300 bags per day.
According to local trader of Ahmednagar region of Maharashtra, Chana
stock is 75% less than the average years whereas arrival is also lower than the
last year. At present chana price in mandi is hovering around Rs 5800-5900
per bag with arrival of 600 bags per day. Agriwatch expects prices of chana to
show steady to firm movement in coming days due to good demand from
millers/stockiest and lower arrival. However, prices may take some downward
movement due to profit booking and demand could lower at higher price.
There is a burning gossip in the market that area under guar and castor seed
is bound to decline this year due to increased possibility of good rainfall in
monsoon season and lower prevailing prices of these commodities in cash
market. It may shift to pulses and other spices. Around 2 to 4 % area in
Maharashtra, Rajasthan and MP under soybean may shift to other lucrative
crops as soybean price is ruling 10 % lower in comparison to last year. Guar
and castor farmers too would prefer to shift some area to other cash crop due
to lower price.
CENTER 27-May-15 26-May-15 Change
AHMEDNAGAR 5900 5850 +50
ALWAR 5675 5700 -25
GWALIOR 6100 6000 +100
JAIPUR 6300 6200 +100
KANPUR NA NA -
NAGPUR 6200 6300 -100
VIJAYWADA 5750 5800 -50
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JUN BELOW 6800 TARGET 6755 6655 SL
ABOVE 6865
SELL GUARGUM JUN BELOW 5250 TARGET 5200 5130 SL
ABOVE 5310
SELL TURMERIC JUN BELOW 8100 TARGET 8056 7996 SL
ABOVE 8160
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