Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
The document provides an overview of the economic crisis that began in late 2007 and discusses recommendations for investors. It notes that the collapse of subprime lending and the housing bubble led to widespread credit problems and market declines. While the situation remains challenging, following principles like diversification and long-term perspective can help investors navigate volatile markets and find opportunities for future growth as the economy recovers.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
This document discusses the impact of loose global monetary policy on economic growth and equity markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets significantly through measures like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies. This monetary expansion appears highly correlated with rising asset prices and market performance. However, as interest rates are expected to rise, the effects of tightening monetary policy on market volatility and asset price appreciation require careful portfolio positioning.
The document discusses the unusually low market volatility seen in 2017 so far. It notes that historically there has typically been a 5% market pullback in 91% of years, yet 2017 has seen the market continue moving higher without significant corrections. It examines measures of implied market volatility like the VIX index, which is at record lows, indicating that options traders do not expect much price volatility. While low volatility has persisted for an extended period, the document concludes that over time markets typically return to having a normal range of up and down trends, and investors should avoid complacency and prepare for opportunities that market corrections may bring.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
The document provides an overview of the economic crisis that began in late 2007 and discusses recommendations for investors. It notes that the collapse of subprime lending and the housing bubble led to widespread credit problems and market declines. While the situation remains challenging, following principles like diversification and long-term perspective can help investors navigate volatile markets and find opportunities for future growth as the economy recovers.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
This document discusses the impact of loose global monetary policy on economic growth and equity markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets significantly through measures like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies. This monetary expansion appears highly correlated with rising asset prices and market performance. However, as interest rates are expected to rise, the effects of tightening monetary policy on market volatility and asset price appreciation require careful portfolio positioning.
The document discusses the unusually low market volatility seen in 2017 so far. It notes that historically there has typically been a 5% market pullback in 91% of years, yet 2017 has seen the market continue moving higher without significant corrections. It examines measures of implied market volatility like the VIX index, which is at record lows, indicating that options traders do not expect much price volatility. While low volatility has persisted for an extended period, the document concludes that over time markets typically return to having a normal range of up and down trends, and investors should avoid complacency and prepare for opportunities that market corrections may bring.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Vanguard’s 2015 economic and investment outlookJoão Pinto
To treat the future with the deference it deserves, Vanguard believes that market forecasts are best viewed in a probabilistic framework.
This publication’s primary objectives are to describe the projected long-term return distributions that contribute to strategic asset allocation decisions and to present the rationale for the ranges and probabilities of potential outcomes.
Dealing With Divergences - Blackrock 2015 OutlookJoão Pinto
2015 Investment Outlook
Economic growth and monetary policies are diverging across the world. Get ready for volatility spikes in 2015—and new opportunities.
We debated this at our 2015 Outlook Forum in mid-November in London. The semi-annual event, the seventh of its kind, was marked by intense investment debates in small and large groups.
The 20-page piece includes: our 2015 base case (see chart below); top investment ideas; in-depth sections on valuations, volatility and currencies; five interactive graphics; and spotlights on key regional investment trends.
The document provides an overview of market volatility and downturns. It discusses how declines are normal aspects of the market cycle and outlines historical data on the average length and frequency of different types of declines. It also notes that expansions have typically lasted longer than recessions throughout history.
The document provides advice on navigating volatile market conditions, emphasizing the importance of diversification, maintaining a long-term perspective, and not abandoning one's investment plan. It highlights data showing that markets have historically recovered from downturns and notes opportunities currently available in international markets and other asset classes. The overall message is that staying invested and working with a financial advisor can help investors weather periods of market turbulence.
A look at how we got into this mess of a financial meltdown, what to do in the midst of it, and how to capitalize going forward. This presentation illustrates the need of hiring a professional advisor to help you manage your emotions during times of uncertainty.
This document summarizes a market perspective report from July 2016. It discusses how central banks have driven interest rates to record lows and even negative levels in some countries in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. However, global GDP growth remains sluggish despite enormous monetary stimulus efforts. As a result, government debt levels have increased substantially. The long-term implications of prolonged low and negative interest rates on economies and financial markets remains uncertain.
The document provides an overview of the market perspective in September 2017. It notes that while the markets have exhibited little volatility since the 2016 election, corrections of over 5% are actually quite common within a given year. The document also discusses factors like leading economic indicators and the current economic expansion that suggest a recession may not be imminent. It concludes by stating that most economists believe economic conditions remain reasonable, though ongoing monitoring of differences between corrections and bear markets is warranted.
The document discusses concerns about the flattening of the yield curve in recent years. It defines the yield curve as plotting interest rates at various maturity points, traditionally sloping upward as investors require higher yields for longer-term lending. Recently, short-term rates have risen due to Fed actions while longer-term rates have remained low, causing the curve to flatten. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, though the timing is inconsistent. While not inverted now, spreads are the narrowest in a decade and investors remain watchful.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
The document discusses the impact of recent political events in Italy and China on global equity markets. It argues that markets have consolidated in the short term due to cracks emerging in the three bullish views that have driven gains recently: slowing Chinese growth, concerns over reductions in quantitative easing liquidity, and instability in Italy. The author believes further weakness is likely as markets adjust to the risks associated with a potential end to quantitative easing programs, but that this could ultimately provide more attractive entry points for risk assets.
The investment philosophy focuses on efficient market investing through portfolio design and implementation that targets dimensions of higher expected returns like value, size, and profitability. It believes prices reflect all available information and aims to add value not by forecasting but by pursuing risk premia in a low-cost, diversified portfolio. Traditional active management often relies on forecasting and generates higher costs without consistent outperformance, while index funds provide little flexibility.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially raise interest rates in 2015 after keeping them at historic lows since 2008. It notes that while higher rates may benefit savers, they also pose risks and it is difficult to predict how markets will react. The document also analyzes global economic indicators and unemployment data to provide context around the challenges facing the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate policy.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Corporate earnings have rebounded in recent quarters, growing 6.35% year-over-year in the S&P 500 after several years of decline. Analysts expect further modest earnings growth in 2017 and stronger double-digit growth beyond 2017, though estimates are often overly optimistic. While recent positive economic data and potential pro-business policies under Trump have boosted expectations, current stock valuations are very high by historical standards given the stage of the economic cycle in the absence of confirmed policy changes. Continued earnings growth and flexibility will be important for investors as policy developments unfold.
The white paper analyzes how investment portfolios may perform in a rising interest rate environment based on a case study of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate actions from 1982 to 2015. It identifies 5 periods of rising rates and finds that equities generally performed better when rates rose slowly, while performance was more complex when rates rose rapidly. The paper recommends strategies for protecting and enhancing portfolios, such as adjusting allocations to equities, fixed income, and currencies based on factors like an individual investor's risk tolerance.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
What if this is a "normal" bull market correction?jsadams33
CIO WM Research analysts discuss their views in an internal UBS blog. This document makes certain blog posts available to financial advisors for client distribution. The blog post discusses the authors' view that the current market decline is a normal bull market correction rather than the start of a bear market. It notes that bull markets have historically experienced multiple 10% or greater declines, and markets typically recover from such corrections within 3-6 months. The authors analyze past corrections and conclude the current one fits historical patterns, suggesting further gains in coming months.
The document discusses the old adage of "sell in May and go away" and argues that investors should instead "buy in June and stay tuned" in 2010. It notes that while stock returns have historically been weaker from May to October, returns are still positive about two-thirds of the time. Given that a pullback has already occurred, the author believes investors should buy stocks now rather than sell. However, investors need to "stay tuned" to changing economic conditions in the coming months as headwinds may increase volatility.
The document discusses the benefits of staying invested in the stock market, even during downturns. It notes that those who remained invested over the past 30 years earned an annual return of 9.3%, despite three bear markets declines of over 20%. Missing even a few days in the market can significantly hurt long-term returns. The conclusion is that long-term investment success comes from maintaining investments over time, rather than trying to time the market.
Automated hplc screening of newborns for sickle cell anemia juarez1precioso
This document describes an automated HPLC method used to screen over 2.5 million newborn dried blood samples for hemoglobinopathies like sickle cell anemia. The method uses cation exchange chromatography to separate and quantify hemoglobins F, A, S, C, E, and D. It was found to have high throughput of 1 sample per minute, small sample volume needs, precision of variant quantification within 14-18%, and detection limits of 0.5% for Hb S and C and 1.0% for other variants. Shortcomings included the need for manual sample loading and lack of sample identification barcodes. The method was shown to accurately detect cases of sickle cell disease in newborns over 4 years of
Tackling the difficult areas of chemical entity extraction: Misspelt chemical...dan2097
Extracting the structures of small molecules from unstructured text is now a mature field, however there still remain areas that present considerable difficulty or have until this point remained unexplored.
One such area is identification of chemical names with misspellings or errors introduced by optical character recognition. The approach we have taken employs a formal grammar describing the syntax of a systematic name. To provide coverage over the vast majority of organic nomenclature including carbohydrates, amino acids and natural products we have developed a new way of representing the grammar such as to allow an order of magnitude more states than previous efforts1 whilst simultaneously reducing memory consumption. To efficiently perform spelling correction against this grammar we will describe a heuristic spelling correction algorithm.
Another area that remains underexplored is the identification and resolution of chemical line formulae by which we also include domain specific line formulae such as are used to describe oligosaccharides and peptides. We describe the recognition and resolution of these often overlooked chemical entities.
We also show how one can identify entities such as journal and patent references, which can aid in the navigation of semantically enhanced documents.
(1) Sayle, R.; Xie, P. H.; Muresan, S. Improved Chemical Text Mining of Patents with Infinite Dictionaries and Automatic Spelling Correction. J. Chem. Inf. Model. 2011, 52, 51–62.
Vanguard’s 2015 economic and investment outlookJoão Pinto
To treat the future with the deference it deserves, Vanguard believes that market forecasts are best viewed in a probabilistic framework.
This publication’s primary objectives are to describe the projected long-term return distributions that contribute to strategic asset allocation decisions and to present the rationale for the ranges and probabilities of potential outcomes.
Dealing With Divergences - Blackrock 2015 OutlookJoão Pinto
2015 Investment Outlook
Economic growth and monetary policies are diverging across the world. Get ready for volatility spikes in 2015—and new opportunities.
We debated this at our 2015 Outlook Forum in mid-November in London. The semi-annual event, the seventh of its kind, was marked by intense investment debates in small and large groups.
The 20-page piece includes: our 2015 base case (see chart below); top investment ideas; in-depth sections on valuations, volatility and currencies; five interactive graphics; and spotlights on key regional investment trends.
The document provides an overview of market volatility and downturns. It discusses how declines are normal aspects of the market cycle and outlines historical data on the average length and frequency of different types of declines. It also notes that expansions have typically lasted longer than recessions throughout history.
The document provides advice on navigating volatile market conditions, emphasizing the importance of diversification, maintaining a long-term perspective, and not abandoning one's investment plan. It highlights data showing that markets have historically recovered from downturns and notes opportunities currently available in international markets and other asset classes. The overall message is that staying invested and working with a financial advisor can help investors weather periods of market turbulence.
A look at how we got into this mess of a financial meltdown, what to do in the midst of it, and how to capitalize going forward. This presentation illustrates the need of hiring a professional advisor to help you manage your emotions during times of uncertainty.
This document summarizes a market perspective report from July 2016. It discusses how central banks have driven interest rates to record lows and even negative levels in some countries in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. However, global GDP growth remains sluggish despite enormous monetary stimulus efforts. As a result, government debt levels have increased substantially. The long-term implications of prolonged low and negative interest rates on economies and financial markets remains uncertain.
The document provides an overview of the market perspective in September 2017. It notes that while the markets have exhibited little volatility since the 2016 election, corrections of over 5% are actually quite common within a given year. The document also discusses factors like leading economic indicators and the current economic expansion that suggest a recession may not be imminent. It concludes by stating that most economists believe economic conditions remain reasonable, though ongoing monitoring of differences between corrections and bear markets is warranted.
The document discusses concerns about the flattening of the yield curve in recent years. It defines the yield curve as plotting interest rates at various maturity points, traditionally sloping upward as investors require higher yields for longer-term lending. Recently, short-term rates have risen due to Fed actions while longer-term rates have remained low, causing the curve to flatten. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, though the timing is inconsistent. While not inverted now, spreads are the narrowest in a decade and investors remain watchful.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
The document discusses the impact of recent political events in Italy and China on global equity markets. It argues that markets have consolidated in the short term due to cracks emerging in the three bullish views that have driven gains recently: slowing Chinese growth, concerns over reductions in quantitative easing liquidity, and instability in Italy. The author believes further weakness is likely as markets adjust to the risks associated with a potential end to quantitative easing programs, but that this could ultimately provide more attractive entry points for risk assets.
The investment philosophy focuses on efficient market investing through portfolio design and implementation that targets dimensions of higher expected returns like value, size, and profitability. It believes prices reflect all available information and aims to add value not by forecasting but by pursuing risk premia in a low-cost, diversified portfolio. Traditional active management often relies on forecasting and generates higher costs without consistent outperformance, while index funds provide little flexibility.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially raise interest rates in 2015 after keeping them at historic lows since 2008. It notes that while higher rates may benefit savers, they also pose risks and it is difficult to predict how markets will react. The document also analyzes global economic indicators and unemployment data to provide context around the challenges facing the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate policy.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Corporate earnings have rebounded in recent quarters, growing 6.35% year-over-year in the S&P 500 after several years of decline. Analysts expect further modest earnings growth in 2017 and stronger double-digit growth beyond 2017, though estimates are often overly optimistic. While recent positive economic data and potential pro-business policies under Trump have boosted expectations, current stock valuations are very high by historical standards given the stage of the economic cycle in the absence of confirmed policy changes. Continued earnings growth and flexibility will be important for investors as policy developments unfold.
The white paper analyzes how investment portfolios may perform in a rising interest rate environment based on a case study of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate actions from 1982 to 2015. It identifies 5 periods of rising rates and finds that equities generally performed better when rates rose slowly, while performance was more complex when rates rose rapidly. The paper recommends strategies for protecting and enhancing portfolios, such as adjusting allocations to equities, fixed income, and currencies based on factors like an individual investor's risk tolerance.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
What if this is a "normal" bull market correction?jsadams33
CIO WM Research analysts discuss their views in an internal UBS blog. This document makes certain blog posts available to financial advisors for client distribution. The blog post discusses the authors' view that the current market decline is a normal bull market correction rather than the start of a bear market. It notes that bull markets have historically experienced multiple 10% or greater declines, and markets typically recover from such corrections within 3-6 months. The authors analyze past corrections and conclude the current one fits historical patterns, suggesting further gains in coming months.
The document discusses the old adage of "sell in May and go away" and argues that investors should instead "buy in June and stay tuned" in 2010. It notes that while stock returns have historically been weaker from May to October, returns are still positive about two-thirds of the time. Given that a pullback has already occurred, the author believes investors should buy stocks now rather than sell. However, investors need to "stay tuned" to changing economic conditions in the coming months as headwinds may increase volatility.
The document discusses the benefits of staying invested in the stock market, even during downturns. It notes that those who remained invested over the past 30 years earned an annual return of 9.3%, despite three bear markets declines of over 20%. Missing even a few days in the market can significantly hurt long-term returns. The conclusion is that long-term investment success comes from maintaining investments over time, rather than trying to time the market.
Automated hplc screening of newborns for sickle cell anemia juarez1precioso
This document describes an automated HPLC method used to screen over 2.5 million newborn dried blood samples for hemoglobinopathies like sickle cell anemia. The method uses cation exchange chromatography to separate and quantify hemoglobins F, A, S, C, E, and D. It was found to have high throughput of 1 sample per minute, small sample volume needs, precision of variant quantification within 14-18%, and detection limits of 0.5% for Hb S and C and 1.0% for other variants. Shortcomings included the need for manual sample loading and lack of sample identification barcodes. The method was shown to accurately detect cases of sickle cell disease in newborns over 4 years of
Tackling the difficult areas of chemical entity extraction: Misspelt chemical...dan2097
Extracting the structures of small molecules from unstructured text is now a mature field, however there still remain areas that present considerable difficulty or have until this point remained unexplored.
One such area is identification of chemical names with misspellings or errors introduced by optical character recognition. The approach we have taken employs a formal grammar describing the syntax of a systematic name. To provide coverage over the vast majority of organic nomenclature including carbohydrates, amino acids and natural products we have developed a new way of representing the grammar such as to allow an order of magnitude more states than previous efforts1 whilst simultaneously reducing memory consumption. To efficiently perform spelling correction against this grammar we will describe a heuristic spelling correction algorithm.
Another area that remains underexplored is the identification and resolution of chemical line formulae by which we also include domain specific line formulae such as are used to describe oligosaccharides and peptides. We describe the recognition and resolution of these often overlooked chemical entities.
We also show how one can identify entities such as journal and patent references, which can aid in the navigation of semantically enhanced documents.
(1) Sayle, R.; Xie, P. H.; Muresan, S. Improved Chemical Text Mining of Patents with Infinite Dictionaries and Automatic Spelling Correction. J. Chem. Inf. Model. 2011, 52, 51–62.
E:\Class Iii Nr 418 Dynamics Of Teams1209psharpnack
Groups and teams are collections of people working toward a common goal. Groups are generally broader while teams have more defined roles and objectives. Effective teams require contributions from all members, shared goals and accountability, and a variety of skills and personalities. Teams progress through forming, storming, norming, performing, and adjourning stages. Leaders can adopt different styles like autocratic, consultative, delegative, or consensus-based approaches. Building effective teams relies on factors such as clear communication, addressing issues directly, valuing all members, and recognizing accomplishments.
From Open text mining solutions to Open Data resourcesdan2097
OPSIN (Open Parser for Systematic IUPAC nomenclature) has developed into a mature solution for chemical name to structure conversion. Together with other Open Source utilities such as OSCAR4, ChemSpot, and ChemicalTagger, we now have the tools to address many of the problems in chemical text mining. This ecosystem of tools has facilitated the extraction of over a million reactions, from the US patent literature, which are now available freely to all under CC-Zero. I will describe advances in OPSIN, how reactions can be extracted from text, and present some interesting analyses that are made possible by the public availability of this dataset.
RPaaSTM is a recruitment platform as a service that aims to improve the hiring process. It uses a qualification model to assess candidates based on competency, knowledge, experience and skills to better qualify, source, interview, and onboard candidates. This helps reduce costs, increase efficiency, and hire higher quality candidates faster compared to traditional hiring methods.
This document provides BlackRock's outlook for 2015 global markets and economies. It identifies divergence as a key theme, with the US and UK tightening monetary policy while other regions maintain stimulus. Volatility is expected to increase from low levels as valuations are high and investor confidence in monetary policy is stretched. Geopolitical risks also remain. The outlook calls for active risk management and hedging given low potential returns and the diminished ability of bonds to offset equity declines.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
The document provides an overview of recent interest rate movements and expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Short-term rates in the US have risen over 100 basis points in the past year, while longer-term rates remain lower, resulting in a flattening yield curve. The Fed projects stable economic growth and inflation through 2020 as it gradually raises rates, with market expectations that rates will peak at around 2.8% in 2019. Rising interest rates can slow economic growth over time as intended by the Fed to manage inflation, and an inverted yield curve has historically preceded recessions.
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook from Principal Global Investors. It discusses factors that have contributed to slowing global economic growth, including uncertainty around government policies. While growth has decelerated, the odds of a double-dip recession are seen as low. Emerging markets continue to drive global growth, with China expected to remain above 8% growth. In the US, momentum has slowed but the economy retains positives such as rising incomes and profits supporting investment.
The document provides 5 investing principles based on a presentation about lessons learned. Principle 1 discusses that every investment has risks, even cash, as investors flocked to cash during volatile periods but it provided little return over the long run after accounting for inflation. Principle 2 notes that while most asset classes declined in 2008, a diversified portfolio still worked over the full market cycle from 2000-2009. Principle 3 explains that not all bonds or bond funds perform the same way. Principle 4 asserts that stocks have generally outperformed over the long run. Principle 5 advocates for including international stocks rather than avoiding foreign markets.
Equity Market - What to expect in August 2021?Vinod Prajapati
- The equity markets in India performed well in July 2021, with mid and small-cap stocks outperforming. Realty and metals sectors saw the highest gains, while auto and energy declined.
- Fund managers expect some market consolidation in the near term due to high valuations but remain positive for the long term given economic recovery. Select sectors like financials, IT, and consumption are favored.
- A mix of large, mid, and small-cap funds is recommended to benefit from opportunities across market caps.
Foreign direct investment in China fell 8.7% in July year-over-year, the lowest level in two years. Chinese officials and economists expressed concern that China may miss its annual GDP growth target of 7.5% without further economic support. A turnaround was not seen in the third quarter, and stimulus measures like increased infrastructure investment would be needed to boost growth.
Profit & Loss Conference, Economists' Panel Singapore Oct. 2014Naomi Fink
Despite enduring the longest winning streak since July 2009 – four straight months of gains in the first half of 2014 – are emerging markets currencies about to falter? This panel will look at recent FX movements and make predictions for these currencies. What is the fate of the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht and, importantly, the Chinese yuan?
Panel:
Gundy Cahyadi, Economist, DBS Bank
Jason Daw, Head of Asian FX Strategy, Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking
Naomi Fink, CEO and Founder, Europacifica Consulting
The document discusses maintaining a long-term perspective during periods of market volatility. It argues that trying to time the market is difficult and investors are better off remaining invested through downturns. While volatility can be unsettling, markets have historically delivered returns over long periods. The document advocates for diversification, rebalancing, and having patience as the best strategies for long-term investors.
ASSET ALLOCATION AND DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES:KEY FACTORS TO CONSIDER - Ste...IFG Network marcus evans
Presentation delivered by Keynote Speaker Steven Skancke, Chief Investment Officer, KEEL POINT ADVISORS at the IFG Wealth Management Forum Spring 2016 held in Scottsdale AZ
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2012BoyarMiller
This document provides a summary of a presentation by AllianceBernstein L.P. on the current state of the capital markets. It discusses the following key points:
- Global stock returns have been up in recent years despite shifting investor sentiment favoring safety. However, earnings growth is slowing.
- Interest rates remain near generational lows due to economic anxieties. Global economic growth is expected to remain slow with challenges from austerity measures and slowdowns in countries like China and Brazil.
- The European sovereign debt crisis has no quick solution. Deeper fiscal integration is needed but national economic situations vary significantly across countries in the euro area.
- In the US, consumers have reduced debt burdens and job
This report discusses changes made to the international equity allocation strategy. It raises the allocation to emerging markets stocks, large-cap value stocks, and international real estate investment trusts (REITs). For emerging markets, volatility has declined and fund flows have stabilized, warranting a modest increase despite some remaining uncertainty. For REITs, moderate growth abroad and still-low interest rates are favorable, so the allocation is raised to neutral. While continuing to favor growth stocks, international value stocks now present some bargains, so that allocation is also raised. Overall this represents a slightly less defensive stance in light of signs of a milder global economic slowdown.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
2007 01 white presentation at barclays capital in florida 28 30 january 2007 ...William White
1) The document summarizes a presentation given by William White about globalization and the convergence of inflation rates. It discusses how inflation has fallen globally and become less volatile. It also explores several potential explanations for these trends, including effective central bank policy, globalization of markets, and the "savings glut" hypothesis.
2) The presentation is divided into four parts. The first discusses the facts about declining inflation and volatility worldwide. The second evaluates alternative explanations for these trends. The third considers prospects for the future and potential financial imbalances. The fourth discusses implications for monetary policy.
3) In conclusion, the presentation argues that no single factor can fully explain recent inflation trends. Rather, a combination of forces, including global
This document discusses challenges to retirement planning, including changes from pensions to 401(k)s, more retirees working, rising costs of living and healthcare, and uncertainty around Social Security. It then provides an example retirement planning calculation showing the need to save over $1 million. Finally, it emphasizes developing a retirement strategy in consultation with a financial professional to address challenges through diversification, asset allocation, and insurance products.
This document provides an investment outlook and discusses strategies for fixed income investments in the current low interest rate environment. It notes that government bond yields have declined significantly from over 15% in 1981 to under 2% currently, meaning bonds no longer provide the income and safety they once did. The main takeaways are that investors should not rely on bonds for income and safety as much, and should consider strategies like flexible funds, mortgage-backed securities, and alternatives to navigate potential rising rates and lower bond prices. The outlook recommends avoiding long maturities and bond index funds, and not stretching for yield.
The document discusses emerging markets and whether recent turmoil could lead to contagion as seen in 1997. It summarizes that while some emerging markets face issues like inflation and political unrest, economies are now stronger and the affected countries too small to significantly impact the US economy. The author believes recent emerging market weakness provides an excuse for investors to take profits after big gains in 2013, but that a correction would not be fundamentally driven given the ongoing economic recovery.
Looking back on 2014, there were several unexpected events such as interest rates not rising as expected and the polar vortex. The US housing market was also softer than anticipated and the global economy slowed more than expected. Additionally, the large decline in oil prices surprised many. Looking forward to 2015, the US economy is projected to have continued growth. Interest rates are expected to rise gently, and oil prices are predicted to increase from current levels. The global economy is also forecasted to stabilize. Some whimsical predictions were also made about the NCAA tournament and Super Bowl having unexpected outcomes.
The document discusses how global liquidity is slowing down as central banks begin tapering monetary stimulus programs. As liquidity shrinks, it could impact asset prices and riskier sectors. Bond spreads have already started diverging from stock prices, indicating slowing growth and liquidity. The author recommends increasing cash levels in portfolios to be redeployed opportunistically as volatility rises due to less central bank support of markets.
economic indicators presentation power point.pptDilshadSFaisal
This document provides an overview of economic indicators and how they can be used. It defines leading, lagging, and coincident indicators and provides examples of each. Key indicators discussed include GDP, employment figures, inflation rates, and housing data. The document advises using economic indicators to interpret current investment possibilities and the overall health of economies. It also notes that indicators should be viewed in the context of expectations and are important to different types of investments.
Similar to enterpriseSeattle 2011 Forecast - Mike Dueker (20)
The document provides an economic forecast for 2013. It finds that:
1) The global economy is recovering but growth will be slow, especially in Europe, due to the eurozone crisis and moderating growth in Asia.
2) The US economy is building momentum slowly, with moderate domestic growth expected in 2013 despite a slow global environment.
3) The forecast predicts GDP growth of 1.8% for the US in 2013, picking up to 2.4% in 2014, but global and European growth will remain limited by structural issues.
Russell Investments provides a forecast for the US economy in 2013. They predict a 65% probability of a modest recovery with growth near 2.0% and inflation staying near the Fed's 2% target. Unemployment is forecast to be 7.3% by the end of 2013. Political risks from fiscal policy decisions could impact markets. The recovery faces challenges from the ongoing recession in Europe and China's economic rebalancing.
The document is a 2013 economic forecast for the Puget Sound region. It summarizes that the Puget Sound region experienced deeper recessions than the nation during the Dot-Com/911 recession and Great Recession due to its industry concentration. The forecast predicts employment and income growth in the Puget Sound region to outpace national averages from 2011-2021 due to factors like international trade, technology companies, and its educated workforce.
The document summarizes a presentation on the 2010 real estate forecast for Seattle, Washington. It discusses how the real estate market has been distressed since 2009 due to the recession. While the recession is over, recovery will be slow with some downside risks remaining. Vacancy rates are still rising across major commercial property types like office and retail. The capital markets remain cautious and credit is tight. Distressed assets are increasing but still relatively low in Seattle compared to other cities. Overall, the market will continue to weaken in 2010 but opportunities may arise for innovative and patient investors.
7. Outline Business Cycle Index and forecasts Scenarios that might drive asset returns in 2011 The mess in Europe Quantitative easing 5
8. Economic Outlook Little or no above-trend, snap-back growth A long, flat spot in U.S. unemployment A previous 2 ½ year flat spot occurred in U.S. unemployment between May 1984 and November 1986. But this was with unemployment between 7 ½ and 7 percent. Nevertheless, real GDP grew at an average rate of 2.7 percent through the flat spot in the 1980s, so the unemployment outlook does not doom the economy to 1 to 2 percent GDP growth next year. The flat spot in the 1980s broke the back of oil prices. Are some commodity prices ready to break this time? 6
9. Forecasts of business cycle index show end of stumble, return to square-root path 7 Source: http://www.russell.com/Helping-Advisors/Markets/BusinessCycleIndex.asp Historical data is not indicative of future results. Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. There is no guarantee that the stated results will occur.
10. The projected plateau in 2011 jobs gains is disappointing 8 Source: http://www.russell.com/Helping-Advisors/Markets/BusinessCycleIndex.asp Historical data is not indicative of future results. Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. There is no guarantee that the stated results will occur.
11. Where are the months with jobs gains of 300 thousand? This is where the economy is disappointing us as we head into 2011 9 Source: http://www.russell.com/Helping-Advisors/Markets/BusinessCycleIndex.asp Historical data is not indicative of future results. Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. There is no guarantee that the stated results will occur.
12. Forecasts of GDP growth: Blue Chip consensus and Russell’s forecast 10 Source: January 2011 issue of Blue Chip Economic Indicators Historical data is not indicative of future results. Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. There is no guarantee that the stated results will occur.
13. Eurozone and U.S.Reversion to the mean from above and from below 11 Start of out ofsample forecasts Source: Russell’s Economic Outlook and Market Expectations as of October 2010 Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Historical data is not indicative of future results. Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. There is no guarantee that the stated results will occur.
14. Eurozone CrisisFrom liquidity concerns to solvency to breakup and default? The Euro was structurally flawed from the beginning The “Euro-TARP” deals with liquidity, not solvency Solvency in some of the peripheral countries is still a concern Even if Greek debt, for example, is restructured, will the Greek economy be competitive at the fixed exchange rate? Is default and devaluation the necessary elixir? 12 Euro-TARP = The European Financial Stability Facility There is no guarantee that any stated expectations will occur.
15. Eurozone CrisisFrom liquidity concerns to solvency to breakup? 13 SOURCE: Bloomberg as of 06 December 10 Data is historical and is not indicative of future results.
16. Quantitative easing QE means that the central bank is injecting more than the minimum reserves into the banking system to enforce a zero short-term interest rate The Bank of Japan had a zero interest-rate target for several years before it realized that it might want to inject more than the minimum reserves needed to achieve a zero rate. The Fed got this point right away in January 2009 when it began QE – it always injected more than the minimum and thereby precluded a deflationary equilibrium 14
17. What’s new in QE2? It’s working! What the Fed buys is not as important as the fact that the Fed shows determination to inject enough reserves to make a 2 percent inflation expectations make sense to people. Data-dependent asset purchases Tree-chopping analogy 15
18. Global Currencies No war, just tension All the majors (USD, GBP, EUR, JPY) have downward biases when viewed in isolation. Yet dollar is least ugly, cheapest CNY would appreciate if it could – held by capital controls and intervention Commodity currencies are dear, commodity outlook is lackluster; they are expected to depreciate, but are supported by carry trade Is a new global policy arrangement at hand? Unlikely 16 USD = US Dollar; GBP = British Pound; EUR = Euro; JPY = Japanese Yen There is no guarantee that any stated expectations will occur.
19. Emerging MarketsBelieve the hype, but with caution Structural story intact through medium term EM countries no longer have their traditional vulnerabilities to sudden stops and are the darlings of the investment landscape Relative EM valuations are about on par with developed We agree that domestic demand is rising, but domestic sectors are very expensive Inflation due to undervalued real exchange rates, rising food prices, capital inflows, rising domestic demand 17 EMGs = Emerging Markets Groups There is no guarantee that any stated expectations will occur.