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DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW AND
WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021
Gaurav Misra of Mirae Asset MF, Rahul Singh of Tata MF and Shridatta Bhandwaldar of Canara Robeco MF share their views on the
equity market.
AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor
DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET - PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT FOR JULY 2021
Last month was eventful
for the equity markets.
This was the rare
occasion where equity
market remained less
volatile. While Nifty 50
Index moved in the
range of 15,600 and
15,900, BSE Sensex
hovered around 52,500.
Although with slower
pace, all major indices
continued upward
journey in the month of
July. Mid and Small-
caps led the way up this
month along with real
estate and metal index.
Source : www.investing.com; internal calculation
1 Mon th Change % 1 Year Change % 3 Years Change % 5 Years Change % 10 Years Change %
Nifty 50 Ind ex 0.27% 42.36% 11.55% 12.78% 11.14%
Nifty Next 50 Ind ex 2.21% 46.54% 9.86% 11.88% 13.69%
Nifty Midcap 100 In dex 3.13% 79.79% 13.79% 13.49% 13.25%
NSE Smallcap 1 00 Ind ex 8.11% 110 .02% 12.12% 11.57% 11.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Nifty 50 Index Nifty Next 50 Index Nifty Midcap 100 Index NSE Smallcap 100 Index
OUT-PERFORMERS & UNDER-PERFORMERS OF JULY 2021
Realty and Metals were, respectively, the leading sectors last month, with the former advancing 16%, whilst the latter soared 11%. IT
Services gained 4%, Pharma, Services, Financial Services, Media, FMCG and Banking sector remained mostly flat. Auto and Energy sectors
lagged with decline of 5% & 4% respectively in July.
Source : www.investing.com; internal calculation
16%
11%
4%
1%
0% 0%
0% 0% -1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Realty Metals IT Services Pharma Services Financials
Services
Media FMCG Bank Private Banks PSU Banks Energy Auto
Performance in July 2021
REVIEW OF VALUATIONS BASIS TRAILING PE & PB RATIOS
Looking at the PE ratios, valuation of most of the indices have corrected in last one year, except for Small-cap index. There have been sharp
correction in PE valuation of Mid-cap index led by healthy earnings and low cost of capital. However, looking at the PB ratio changes in last
one year, the data seems not to be giving clear indication in favour of any segment, though valuation gain can be seen in all the segments from
their one year ago valuations. Elevated valuations makes the markets vulnerable to any sharp shifts in global liquidity, inflation expectations
& covid-19 resurgence.
Source : www.nse.com; internal calculation
WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS
Source : www.cafemutual.com
Gaurav Misra | Co-Head Equity, Mirae Asset MF
¡ Markets could consolidate in the near term, marked by bouts of volatility.
¡ There might of little triggers for downside except for a non-occurrence or a mild-occurrence of third covid wave.
¡ Valuations across market capitalization are ahead of long period averages on most traditional valuation metrics.
¡ An accommodative monetary stance and low interest do help raise valuations.
Commentary on Sectors
¡ Bullish on structural growth sectors like select financials, discretionary consumption (including automobiles) and sectors where India
has a competitive advantage – IT, pharma and specialty chemicals.
What to recommend
¡ Combination of mid and large cap schemes as sustainable returns will come from good quality firms in these segments.
¡ Multi cap offerings should also be looked at as they allow fund manager to toggle around with the market cap composition depending
on the opportunities in the market.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS
Source : www.cafemutual.com
Rahul Singh | CIO-Equities, Tata MF
¡ Headline valuations are at 10-15% premium to 10 year historical range but are supported by lower bond yields.
¡ Inflation remains the biggest risk to equity valuations. On the positive side, any move to control bond yields
in US despite inflation could lead to FII flows into equities.
¡ While potential third wave can cause disruption, the impact on earnings is likely to be manageable as evidenced
during the second wave.
Commentary on Sectors
¡ Financials let by large private sector banks and select public sector bands will benefit from the economic upcycle.
¡ Pockets of industrials and capital goods are benefitting from green shoots in the capex cycle.
¡ IT and digital economy is benefiting from the increased spending on digital conversion of economic activities and transactions.
What to recommend
¡ Investors should gradually move towards MF schemes that have relatively low style bias or those that offer a good mix of growth and
value.
¡ A good mix of dynamic asset allocation funds and large & mid cap / flexi cap funds can reduce the allocation to pure small cap
category.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS
Source : www.cafemutual.com
Shridatta Bhandwaldar | Head – Equities, Canara Robeco MF
¡ Expect market to start rolling over to FY23 earnings if we don’t experience a major third wave and demand
picks up during festival season.
¡ Frm 12 – 24 months perspective, we are far more constructive on market given the cyclical uptick in certain
sectors like exports, investments and consumption sectors.
¡ Valuations across market capitalization are in “fair to above-historic” range and thus earnings upgrades are a
must for market over next 2-3 quarters.
Commentary on Sectors
¡ Overweight on select exporting sectors like IT, specialized pharma, specialty chemicals, auto / engg exporters etc. and select domestic
sectors like financials, discretionary, industrials, cement and gas value chain.
What to recommend
¡ Having broader exposure to market in schemes like flexi cap, large and mid and small-cap is advisable.
DISCLAIMER:
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial
advice. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The company takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time
to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
Millionsworth Financial Services. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and
financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of any investments. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it
should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Millionsworth Financial Services or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may
arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Millionsworth Financial Services has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Millionsworth Financial Services endeavors to update on a
reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.
AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor
Address :
Millionsworth Financial Services
2, Santoshi Mata Society, Marol Pipeline, Andheri East,
Mumbai, Maharashtra - 400059
Email id. : support@millionsworth.com
Mobile No. : 91-9833026555 / 91-9321182994

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Equity Market - What to expect in August 2021?

  • 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 Gaurav Misra of Mirae Asset MF, Rahul Singh of Tata MF and Shridatta Bhandwaldar of Canara Robeco MF share their views on the equity market. AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor
  • 2. DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET - PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT FOR JULY 2021 Last month was eventful for the equity markets. This was the rare occasion where equity market remained less volatile. While Nifty 50 Index moved in the range of 15,600 and 15,900, BSE Sensex hovered around 52,500. Although with slower pace, all major indices continued upward journey in the month of July. Mid and Small- caps led the way up this month along with real estate and metal index. Source : www.investing.com; internal calculation 1 Mon th Change % 1 Year Change % 3 Years Change % 5 Years Change % 10 Years Change % Nifty 50 Ind ex 0.27% 42.36% 11.55% 12.78% 11.14% Nifty Next 50 Ind ex 2.21% 46.54% 9.86% 11.88% 13.69% Nifty Midcap 100 In dex 3.13% 79.79% 13.79% 13.49% 13.25% NSE Smallcap 1 00 Ind ex 8.11% 110 .02% 12.12% 11.57% 11.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% Nifty 50 Index Nifty Next 50 Index Nifty Midcap 100 Index NSE Smallcap 100 Index
  • 3. OUT-PERFORMERS & UNDER-PERFORMERS OF JULY 2021 Realty and Metals were, respectively, the leading sectors last month, with the former advancing 16%, whilst the latter soared 11%. IT Services gained 4%, Pharma, Services, Financial Services, Media, FMCG and Banking sector remained mostly flat. Auto and Energy sectors lagged with decline of 5% & 4% respectively in July. Source : www.investing.com; internal calculation 16% 11% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Realty Metals IT Services Pharma Services Financials Services Media FMCG Bank Private Banks PSU Banks Energy Auto Performance in July 2021
  • 4. REVIEW OF VALUATIONS BASIS TRAILING PE & PB RATIOS Looking at the PE ratios, valuation of most of the indices have corrected in last one year, except for Small-cap index. There have been sharp correction in PE valuation of Mid-cap index led by healthy earnings and low cost of capital. However, looking at the PB ratio changes in last one year, the data seems not to be giving clear indication in favour of any segment, though valuation gain can be seen in all the segments from their one year ago valuations. Elevated valuations makes the markets vulnerable to any sharp shifts in global liquidity, inflation expectations & covid-19 resurgence. Source : www.nse.com; internal calculation
  • 5. WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS Source : www.cafemutual.com Gaurav Misra | Co-Head Equity, Mirae Asset MF ¡ Markets could consolidate in the near term, marked by bouts of volatility. ¡ There might of little triggers for downside except for a non-occurrence or a mild-occurrence of third covid wave. ¡ Valuations across market capitalization are ahead of long period averages on most traditional valuation metrics. ¡ An accommodative monetary stance and low interest do help raise valuations. Commentary on Sectors ¡ Bullish on structural growth sectors like select financials, discretionary consumption (including automobiles) and sectors where India has a competitive advantage – IT, pharma and specialty chemicals. What to recommend ¡ Combination of mid and large cap schemes as sustainable returns will come from good quality firms in these segments. ¡ Multi cap offerings should also be looked at as they allow fund manager to toggle around with the market cap composition depending on the opportunities in the market.
  • 6. WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS Source : www.cafemutual.com Rahul Singh | CIO-Equities, Tata MF ¡ Headline valuations are at 10-15% premium to 10 year historical range but are supported by lower bond yields. ¡ Inflation remains the biggest risk to equity valuations. On the positive side, any move to control bond yields in US despite inflation could lead to FII flows into equities. ¡ While potential third wave can cause disruption, the impact on earnings is likely to be manageable as evidenced during the second wave. Commentary on Sectors ¡ Financials let by large private sector banks and select public sector bands will benefit from the economic upcycle. ¡ Pockets of industrials and capital goods are benefitting from green shoots in the capex cycle. ¡ IT and digital economy is benefiting from the increased spending on digital conversion of economic activities and transactions. What to recommend ¡ Investors should gradually move towards MF schemes that have relatively low style bias or those that offer a good mix of growth and value. ¡ A good mix of dynamic asset allocation funds and large & mid cap / flexi cap funds can reduce the allocation to pure small cap category.
  • 7. WHAT TO EXPECT IN AUGUST 2021 – VIEWS FROM FUND MANAGERS Source : www.cafemutual.com Shridatta Bhandwaldar | Head – Equities, Canara Robeco MF ¡ Expect market to start rolling over to FY23 earnings if we don’t experience a major third wave and demand picks up during festival season. ¡ Frm 12 – 24 months perspective, we are far more constructive on market given the cyclical uptick in certain sectors like exports, investments and consumption sectors. ¡ Valuations across market capitalization are in “fair to above-historic” range and thus earnings upgrades are a must for market over next 2-3 quarters. Commentary on Sectors ¡ Overweight on select exporting sectors like IT, specialized pharma, specialty chemicals, auto / engg exporters etc. and select domestic sectors like financials, discretionary, industrials, cement and gas value chain. What to recommend ¡ Having broader exposure to market in schemes like flexi cap, large and mid and small-cap is advisable.
  • 8. DISCLAIMER: This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The company takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of Millionsworth Financial Services. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of any investments. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Millionsworth Financial Services or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Millionsworth Financial Services has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Millionsworth Financial Services endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor Address : Millionsworth Financial Services 2, Santoshi Mata Society, Marol Pipeline, Andheri East, Mumbai, Maharashtra - 400059 Email id. : support@millionsworth.com Mobile No. : 91-9833026555 / 91-9321182994