U.S. retail ecommerce sales are expected to grow at a 14% CAGR from 2012 to 2017, significantly outpacing overall retail growth. Key drivers include mobile commerce, international sales, and the influence of established online buyers, particularly from categories like apparel and consumer packaged goods. The report emphasizes the rising importance of personalization and trust in fostering online shopping habits across various demographics.

1. A P R I L 1 8, 2 0 1 3
US Retail Ecommerce
Outlook—What’s
Driving Growth?
Sponsored by:
Jeffrey Grau
Principal Analyst
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

2. Roadmap of our journey
Product
category
forecast
Shoppers
Online Leading & buyers
sales retailers forecast
forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

3. The outlook is bright for US retail
ecommerce sales
Online sales will grow more than 4 times the rate of
3.4% the NRF forecasts for total retail sales in 2013
Retail Ecommerce
Sales Defined
R
CAG
14% Products/services ordered online or price
and terms of sale negotiated online, even if
payment or fulfillment occurs in-store
Included:
o digital downloads (e.g., music from
iTunes and movies from Netflix)
o Gross merchandise value (GMV) of
items sold on online marketplaces
like Amazon and eBay
o Sales from US retail websites to
foreign customers
Excluded:
o Travel and event tickets sold online
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

4. What forces are influencing
ecommerce growth?
Convenience, price and
selection
Consumers find information,
compare prices and access
The Economy virtually limitless product
After a burst of economic gains selection at anytime, from
in January and February, job anywhere
growth slowed to a trickle in
March, raising concerns about
the strength of the economic
recovery in 2013
Waves of innovation
Mobile, globalization,
omnichannel capabilities,
online marketplaces,
personalization, expedited
fulfillment, new business
models
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5. Mobile spending has begun to have an
impact on ecommerce
Tablet Share of
Mcommerce Sales
2013 2017
62.5% 71.5%
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6. US ecommerce is also starting to get a
boost from international sales
2013 Asia
Ecommerce Facts
Asia-Pacific will surpass North
America as the world’s biggest
B2C ecommerce market
B2C ecommerce sales in Asia-
Pacific will grow more than 30% vs.
12.2% in North America
China, India and Indonesia are
driving the fast ecommerce growth
in Asia-Pacific
China, the primary driver of Asia-
Pacific growth, will surpass Japan
as the region’s largest B2C
ecommerce market
Note: B2C includes travel, digital downloads and
event tickets sales
Source: eMarketer, February 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

7. Comparative estimates of ecommerce
sales growth range from 10% to 14%
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8. Historically, research firms have been
bearish in forecasting online sales
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9. Ecommerce is gradually accounting for
more of total retail sales
Ecommerce is growing 2-3 times …and the result is rising
faster than total retail sales online sales penetration rates
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10. But thinking about channels as distinct
entities ignores how consumers shop
“At some point that
breakdown becomes
immeasurable and
irrelevant.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
Eric Best
CEO
Mercent
“This notion of channel is almost
melting away. What’s important is
how different channels influence
each other and how to attribute
customer engagement across
them.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
Sean Cook
CEO
ShopVisible
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

11. Roadmap of our journey
Product
category
forecast
Shoppers
Online Leading & buyers
sales retailers forecast
forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

12. The two
largest
product
categories
will account
for 42.9% of
total online
sales in 2013
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13. A mix of
larger and
smaller
online
product
categories
will post the
highest
CAGRs from
2012-2017
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

14. Several
categories
exceed the
online
penetration
rate of 6%
for total
retail
ecommerce
sales
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

15. Categories to watch: Apparel and
accessories
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $54.2
Growth 17.2%
Penetration 14%
Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company
Growth Enablers
Body scanning technology
Runway videos
360 degree product views
Home try-on programs
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

16. Categories to watch: CPG (groceries
and personal care)
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $18.3
Growth 15.2%
Penetration 1-4%
Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company
Growth Enablers
Automatic replenishment programs
Broader product selection
Faster and lower-cost delivery
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17. Categories to watch: Autos and parts
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $25.5
Growth 9.2%
Penetration <5%
Source: eMarketer
Growth Enablers
In 2011, 35% of new vehicle buyers
said they would buy a car online, up
from 21% in 2009*
Powerful car dealership lobby has
blocked the sale of cars online
Source: *Capgemini, Oct 2011
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

18. Roadmap of our journey
Product
category
forecast
Shoppers
Online Leading
& buyers
sales forecast
retailers
forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

19. Amazon is a powerful engine of
ecommerce growth
Amazon accounts for a large share of US online sales
and is growing faster than ecommerce overall
If 2012 sales included
the gross merchandise
value from third-party
merchants, Amazon’s
contribution to US
ecommerce sales would
be around 25%.
Source: JMP Securities, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

20. Two Amazon growth engines: Prime
and its third-party sellers marketplace
Key Stats  Amazon said unit sales from its third-
party sellers in the US increased more
Membership (millions) than 40% over the 2011 holiday season
2011 4  Online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon,
2012 10 eBay, Rakuten and Sears) account for
27% online retail sales*
2017 25
 Marketplaces introduce consumers to
Annual Spend unfamiliar retailersand greater product
Prime members $1,224 selection
Non-members $505 Source: *ChannelAdvisor, 2012
Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

21. A number of major retail chains
reported strong online sales growth
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22. Factors attributed to strong growth
 Reduced conflict between its stores and
website by restructuring company by major
brands—Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic
—as opposed to by stores, online, outlets and
international
 Better website search and navigation
 Richer product information
 Richer visualization tools
 Speedier order fulfillment and delivery
 Increased coordination across digital and store
channels
 Upgraded mobile and online sites
 Enhanced customer engagement features
Source: Corporate earnings announcements as reported in Internet Retailer
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

23. Retailers attribute omnichannel
initiatives with boosting sales growth
Walgreens found that its omnichannel shoppers
spend more than its single-channel shoppers
Stores-only
1
Stores + Web
1 2 3 3-1/2
Stores + Web + Mobile
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: Miguel, Almeida, VP of ecommerce at Walgreens at a session at Retails’ Big Show 2013, sponsored by the National Retail
Federation
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

24. Roadmap of our journey
Product
category
forecast
Shoppers
Online Leading & buyers
sales retailers forecast
forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

25. Current (not new) online buyers are
driving the bulk of ecommerce sales
growth
Key Shopper/Buyer Stats
CAGR (2012-2017)
Shoppers 2.7%
Buyers 3.8%
2013
Buyers as a % 82.2%
of shoppers
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

26. Smartphones and tablets have become
commonplace devices for buying online
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27. By all estimates a strong majority of
internet users make online purchases
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28. Online buying is prevalent across all
age cohorts
Buyers 65+ will grow faster than any other group at a
7.3% CAGR from 2012-2017
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

29. Online spending is well distributed
across household income segments
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30. Impetus for spending more online:
Personalization
Survey Findings
41% of online shoppers buy more from retailers
who send them personalized emails based on
past browsing and buying behavior
39% purchase more on retail sites with product
recommendations
Source: The e-tailing group, sponsored by MyBuys, December 2012
Personalization Drives
Online Sales at Sears
Shop Your Way membership program, which offers
personalized product offers based on customer shopping
behavior and other characteristics, strongly contributed to:
 25% boost in online sales for Q4 2012
 17% increase for all of 2012
Source: Internet Retailer, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

31. Impetus for spending more online:
Trust and security
“Every year we see more
consumers who were
latecomers to online shopping
trusting ecommerce.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Vineet Buch
Group product
manager
Google
“Free returns engender online
trust by reducing the likelihood
a consumer will have buyers’
remorse.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
Jason Goldberg
VP strategy
Razorfish
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

32. What were the highlights of our
journey?
Product
category
forecast
Shoppers
Online Leading & buyers
sales retailers forecast
forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

33. Takeaways
 US retail ecommerce sales will increase at a 14%
CAGR from 2012 to 2017
 Mobile users’ share of US retail ecommerce sales will
rise from 15% in 2013 to 25% by 2017
 Ecommerce growth comes from current (not new)
online buyers, who account for 73% of internet users
 Apparel & accessories and CPG are large
categories with strong online growth potential
 All age groups partake in online buying, but those ages
65+ are the fastest growing cohort
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2013 eMarketer Inc.

35. Trend: Greater Need for Guidance when
Shopping Online

36. This is Where Needle Comes in

37. Power of a Needler

38. How Needle Does It

39. Guided Shopping Online Using Your Best Fans

40. Learn more about mobile marketing with
Q&A Session an eMarketer corporate subscription
US Retail Ecommerce About 200 eMarketer reports are
Outlook—What’s published each year. The following are
Driving Growth a few recent ones you may be
interested in:
US Retail Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and Comparative
Estimates
Online User Reviews: Building Trust and Boosting Sales
Shopping Cart Abandonment: New Ways of Looking at
the Purchase Path
Jeffrey Grau
Retail Mobile Commerce Forecast: Shoppers Turn to
You will receive an email Smartphones First
tomorrow with a link to
Multichannel Customer Service: Best Practices for
view the deck and
webinar recording. Building Retail Loyalty
Sponsored by: To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products
Needle 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
©2013 eMarketer Inc.