All politicians will promise you the world to get elected. The problem is Ontario's finances are a disaster as such next government not avoid the fiscal mess. Tough decisions will need to be made by the next government to ensure programs are sustainable. The problem is neither Wynne nor Horwath have the skill to restructured government

1. Election 2018 – Ontario –
Program Spending and
Fiscal Management – May
2018
Paul Young CPA, CGA
May 4, 2018

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Summary
This presentation looks at money from
government to front-line services
The presentation also looks at impact of
funding including outcomes.
Wynne banks on that people with not read
Auditor-General Reports or F/S or outcomes.
Wynne and her team all but ignored AG
reports
Wynne has been playing games with the
books, i.e. pension adjustment, hydro rates,
etc.

4. Agenda
• Overall
• Healthcare
• Education
• Skills Trade / Post Secondary
• Jobs and Prosperity Fund
• Hydro Rates
• Auditor-General Reports

5. Ontario Deficit
• https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ontario-deficit-will-jump-to-almost-12-billion-in-
2018-budget-watchdog-212612/
TORONTO—For the second time in a week Ontario’s Liberals were dealt a blow by a legislative watchdog, this
time the Financial Accountability Office says the government’s deficit projections are inaccurate.
Just weeks before Ontario’s provincial election, the FAO said Wednesday the province’s deficit will jump to
almost $12 billion this year as a result of higher spending in the Liberal government’s 2018 budget and weak
revenue gains.
Those figures—released in the FAO’s Spring 2018 Economic Outlook—stand in stark contrast to the $6.7 billion
deficit projected just weeks ago by the Liberals in their spring budget and already called into question last week
by Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk.
FAO chief economist David West said at a basic level the government’s current spending levels are
unsustainable.
“We use the word structural deficit,” he said. “There is a fundamental imbalance between revenues and
spending. The 2018 budget just added to that imbalance. The conclusion of that … is that economic growth
alone will not be sufficient to allow the government to eliminate the deficit.”

6. Ontario Debt / Deficit
• Ontario’s budget watchdog says that the province’s deficit
will be $2.6 billion in 2017-18, despite a Liberal government
pledge to balance the books by then. The Financial
Accountability Office released its economic and fiscal
outlook today, saying that beyond that fiscal year the deficit
will deteriorate further to $3.7 billion in 2020-21.
• Ontario’s Liberal government is dipping into its reserve fund
to help balance the budget for the next two years, ahead of
the next provincial election.
• An accounting dispute with the auditor general over how
pension assets should appear on the books is adding $2.2
billion to the deficit this fiscal year, but the government
insists it will reach balance by its self-imposed deadline of
2017-18.
• Ontario universities face several financial pressures, among
them pension solvency deficits, according to a new
commentary by debt rating service DBRS Ltd. (who is on the
hook for the pension shortfall?
Source - http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-
reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/prov_fiscal.pdf

7. Annual F/S - Ontario
Source - http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repository/ser/15767/2003-
2004//Annualreportfinancials.pdf or
https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf
• Auditor General for Ontario says
deficit is $2.5B as compare to
Wynne who shows $991M -
https://www.mississauga.com/news-
story/7542977-government-and-
auditor-general-at-odds-over-size-
of-ontario-s-deficit/
• Ontario PC’s dealt with lower
government transfers as part of
their fiscal management
• Liberal as added many new taxes
like carbon tax or Health Premium
or Property tax or other taxes
• Ontario has a spending problem, not
a tax problem -
https://ipolitics.ca/2013/04/19/onta
rio-has-a-spending-problem-not-a-
revenue-problem/
• IESO -

8. Ontario Taxation Mix
Source - http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repository/ser/15767/2003-
2004//Annualreportfinancials.pdf or
https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf
New Taxes
• Ontario now 4.5% more of its
revenue from the federal
government
• New taxes cost taxpayers about
12 cents through either high
prices or direct taxation
(property taxes)
• Ontario is less reliance on
personal income, but has shifted
to users fees. User fees are paid
out with after tax dollars
Comments:

9. Healthcare Spending / Ontario
(2016-2017)
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Ontario or
https://www.rvh.on.ca/account/SiteAssets/SitePages/account/2017%20RVH%20Audited%20Financial%20Statements%20-%20Signed.pdf
• LHIN Operation Cost
$88M/year
• Wages/Ministry of
Health total $293M
Trudeau kept CPC funding
formula
https://canadians.org/bl
og/trudeau-government-
implements-harper-
governments-funding-
formula-health-care
• Royal
Victoria
Hospital
1. New funding does not mean it gets to patient -
https://www.simcoe.com/news-
story/6945785-barrie-s-rvh-could-pay-more-
than-180k-extra-for-hydro-next-year/ or
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/it-
is-a-failure-on-many-levels-ontario-failing-to-
adequately-support-the-elderly-critics-say
2. MRI Wait time -
https://youtu.be/5lD6TMEjyfk
3. Wait times -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018
/04/12/ontario-follows-national-trend-on-
wait-times-for-medical-procedures.html
4. Nurses have seen job cuts -
https://www.thespec.com/news-
story/8109542-ontario-nurses-walk-away-
from-contract-talks/
5. Overcrowding -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/hos
pital-overcrowding-leaves-patients-in-
hallways-despite-addition-of-beds-1.4438907
6. LHIN -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat
ional/auditor-general-finds-wide-variation-in-
home-care-supports-across-
ontario/article27565501/

10. Blog – Healthcare
• http://lfpress.com/news/local-news/hallway-medicine-starts-in-overcrowded-london-hospitals-may-1
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/healthcare-crisis-in-canada-april-2018
• http://lfpress.com/news/local-news/hallway-medicine-starts-in-overcrowded-london-hospitals-may-1
•
• New funding does not mean it gets to patient - https://www.simcoe.com/news-story/6945785-barrie-s-rvh-
could-pay-more-than-180k-extra-for-hydro-next-year/ or http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/it-is-a-
failure-on-many-levels-ontario-failing-to-adequately-support-the-elderly-critics-say
• MRI Wait time - https://youtu.be/5lD6TMEjyfk
• Wait times - https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/04/12/ontario-follows-national-trend-on-wait-
times-for-medical-procedures.html
• Nurses have seen job cuts - https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8109542-ontario-nurses-walk-away-from-
contract-talks/
• Overcrowding - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/hospital-overcrowding-leaves-patients-in-
hallways-despite-addition-of-beds-1.4438907
• LHIN / Audits - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/auditor-general-finds-wide-variation-in-
home-care-supports-across-ontario/article27565501/

11. Education / Ontario – 2016-2017
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or http://www.wrdsb.ca/wefi/wp-
content/uploads/sites/19/WEFI-Audited-Financial-Statements-at-July-31-2017.pdf or https://www.wrdsb.ca/wp-
content/uploads/WRDSB-Financial-Statements-at-Aug-31-2017.pdf
• AG/Pension issue -
https://www.thestar.com/news/
queenspark/2017/09/07/govern
ment-and-auditor-general-at-
odds-over-size-of-ontarios-
deficit.html
• Waterloo
Board of
Education
Outcomes:
1. Graduation Rates -
https://news.ontario.ca/edu/en/2017/05/high-school-
graduation-rate-climbs-to-all-time-high.html - Grad rates
are up!
2. Quality of Students – Ontario students continue to lag in
areas like math and sciences -
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/11/30/ontario-
math-scores-for-10-year-olds-lag-behind-27-other-
countries.html
3. High youth employment rates -
http://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/jobless-rate-for-
youth-could-rise-economist-239887
4. Students lack the soft skills -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/potential-hires-
need-soft-skills-1.4206639
5. Minimum Wage / Jobs -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-
canada-estimates-60000-fewer-jobs-due-to-minimum-wage-
increases

12. Blog - Education
Ontario may have higher graduation rates
which is a good thing! However, it is the
quality of student that is the issue at hand.
Many students are told to go to University
as such we have likely more
university/college than the economy can
support.
Wynne and McGuinty’s policies drove out
investment in areas likes goods producing.
Goods producing jobs tend to pay 25-30%
more than service sector jobs!
Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
education-canada-policy-analysis-april-2018

13. Post-Secondary Education
Spending / Ontario (2016-2017)
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or
https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Ontario or
 Stable employment no longer guaranteed
-
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/millen
nial-jobs-education-1.4009295
 Skills Trade Gaps / Ontario -
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-
news/local-chamber-acts-to-address-
skills-mismatch
 Student Debt -
http://www.queensjournal.ca/story/2018
-02-02/features/what-happens-when-you-
cant-afford-to-be-a-student/
 Ontario Income barely rose -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2
017/09/13/canadian-incomes-jump-but-
ontario-residents-hit-by-manufacturing-
downturn-statistics-canada.html
 Ontario investment /
http://business.financialpost.com/opinio
n/philip-cross-ontarios-50000-job-losses-
kick-off-wynnes-anti-business-backfire

14. Blog – Skills Trade
•
• Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/economic-advisers-push-ottawa-focus-
business-investment-job-re-skilling-205533/
• “The overarching goal of the influential Advisory Council on Economic Growth is to help Canadian households add
an extra $15,000 to their projected annual pre-tax incomes by 2030.
• In its third wave of recommendations, to be released later this week, the council says Canada urgently needs
another $15 billion in annual investments for adult skills development to help workers adjust to the demands of
the rapidly changing labour market.
• The group recommends the creation of an RRSP-type lifelong learning fund that enables workers to accumulate
tax-free savings, combined with contributions from employers and government, in order to cover the cost of
developing new skills midway through their working lives.
• Canada already has educational programs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policies-
education-skills-development-canada-november-2017
• Canada needs to revamp its post secondary model to better align skills to jobs of today and tomorrow -
https://www.inc.com/business-insider/21-new-jobs-future-robots-automation.html
• Job Retraining programs -The federal government provides funding for post-secondary education via CST Transfers
– All job training programs should be reviewed to ensure money is achieving the outcomes
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/jobs/training.html
• Primary and secondary school programs need to be revamp to ensure students are pushed to jobs of the future -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2017-career-management-outlook-on-jobs-canada-and-united-states
OCOT is a destructive, government-imposed program that
masquerades as a benign application, yet hides potentially
dangerous predators, says Doug Leitch.
Source - https://www.canadiancontractor.ca/canadian-
contractor/the-ontario-college-of-trades-is-a-trojan-
horse/7052/

15. Job and Prosperity Fund
• Many thanks to Wynne and
her team for driving out FDI
https://www.thestar.com/ne
ws/canada/2017/09/13/can
adian-incomes-jump-but-
ontario-residents-hit-by-
manufacturing-downturn-
statistics-canada.html
•
• The only thing Liberals are
good at is handing out
moneys
• https://www.slideshare.net/
paulyoungcga/government-
policy-jobs-and-prosperity-
fund-ontario

16. Hydro / Fair Hydro
Liberal supporter,
• So, Fraser Institute is wrong, right? So, is the AG report wrong as well?
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/news/11_newsreleases/2011ne
ws_3.03.pdf
•
• Ontario AG
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/F
airHydroPlan_en.pdf or
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-auditor-
general-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168
•
• I have done my own work through reviewing different information and
high hydro rates have driven out business -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failed-clean-energy-
policies-ontario-wynne-and-mcguinty
•
• Ontario businesses are at the breaking point with the Liberals as they
have seen carbon taxation, elimination of EHT threshold, high hydro
rates, planned hikes to minimum wage, etc. Business can adjust to
government policies, but not when they continue to be slammed by
Wynne with bad after bad policy!
•
• Jobs replaced by manufacturing have been lower in pay, like
retail/transportation/etc. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-
on-business/economy/census-2016-statscan-
income/article36242392/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
•
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-
auditor-general-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168
“Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk investigated the financing
of what the Ontario Liberals call the "Fair Hydro Plan." The
plan has reduced the average household electricity bill in
the province by 25 per cent from the peak in the summer
of 2016.
Lysyk said the government is "improperly" accounting for
the $26 billion in debt the province is taking on to cut
hydro bills in the short term.
The $26 billion is being borrowed through Ontario Power
Generation, so will not appear on the province's books.
Electricity customers will pay off that debt through rate
increases spread out over the next 30 years.

17. Auditor – General / Ontario
• 2017 Report - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/auditor-generals-2017-
annual-report-identifies-need-for-better-government-planning-to-act-on-known-
issues-662331143.html
• 2016 Report -
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/11/30/highlights-of-ontario-
auditor-generals-report.html
• 2015 – Report - https://globalnews.ca/news/2375292/highlights-of-the-ontario-
auditor-generals-2015-annual-report/
• 2014 Report - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/10-highlights-from-ontario-
auditor-general-s-annual-report-1.2140017
• 2013 Report - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/five-highlights-
from-ontario-auditor-general-report/article15854104/

18. Bottom Line
• All parties make promises which is just part of getting elected
• The next government will have to do the following:
• Eliminating the deficit
• Reducing GDP to Debt to 30% range
• Re-working compensation (Grid and Pension reforms)
• Reducing regulations that stifle business
• Fixing hydro rates and the Grid
• Eliminating the Carbon Tax (not required)
• Reducing the size of government through attrition, privatization, etc.
• Reforming a broken arbitration system
• Reforming taxation
• Making key investments that support export producing industries
• Opening up the procurement process
• Consolidation of government offices and selling of real estate
• Supporting economic growth in the North and Rural Ontario