Ontario is both a fiscal and economic mess after 15+ years of bad liberal government. Nobody likes cuts, but the deficit and debt need an action plan!

1. Ontario – Fiscal and
Economic Mess
April 2019
Paul Young CPA, CGA
April 21, 2019

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Summary
This presentation looks at money from
government to front-line services
The presentation also looks at impact of
funding including outcomes.
Wynne banks on that people with not read
Auditor-General Reports or F/S or outcomes.
Wynne and her team all but ignored AG
reports
Wynne has been playing games with the
books, i.e. pension adjustment, hydro rates,
etc.

4. Agenda
• Overall
• Healthcare
• Education
• Skills Trade / Post Secondary
• Jobs and Prosperity Fund
• Hydro Rates
• Employment
• Competitiveness
• Ontario / Poverty
• Ontario FIT
• Ontario Conservation Authority
• Public Health Units
• Auditor-General Reports
• Summary

5. Ontario Debt / Deficit
• Ontario’s budget watchdog says that the province’s deficit
will be $2.6 billion in 2017-18, despite a Liberal government
pledge to balance the books by then. The Financial
Accountability Office released its economic and fiscal
outlook today, saying that beyond that fiscal year the deficit
will deteriorate further to $3.7 billion in 2020-21.
• Ontario’s Liberal government is dipping into its reserve fund
to help balance the budget for the next two years, ahead of
the next provincial election.
• An accounting dispute with the auditor general over how
pension assets should appear on the books is adding $2.2
billion to the deficit this fiscal year, but the government
insists it will reach balance by its self-imposed deadline of
2017-18.
• Ontario universities face several financial pressures, among
them pension solvency deficits, according to a new
commentary by debt rating service DBRS Ltd. (who is on the
hook for the pension shortfall?
Source - http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-
reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/prov_fiscal.pdf

6. Budget 2018 - 2019
Source – BMO Economics

7. Annual F/S - Ontario
Source - http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repository/ser/15767/2003-
2004//Annualreportfinancials.pdf or
https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf
• Auditor General for Ontario says
deficit is $2.5B as compare to
Wynne who shows $991M -
https://www.mississauga.com/news-
story/7542977-government-and-
auditor-general-at-odds-over-size-
of-ontario-s-deficit/
• Ontario PC’s dealt with lower
government transfers as part of
their fiscal management
• Liberal as added many new taxes
like carbon tax or Health Premium
or Property tax or other taxes
• Ontario has a spending problem, not
a tax problem -
https://ipolitics.ca/2013/04/19/onta
rio-has-a-spending-problem-not-a-
revenue-problem/
• IESO -

8. Ontario Taxation Mix
Source - http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repository/ser/15767/2003-
2004//Annualreportfinancials.pdf or
https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf
New Taxes
• Ontario now 4.5% more of its
revenue from the federal
government
• New taxes cost taxpayers about
12 cents through either high
prices or direct taxation
(property taxes)
• Ontario is less reliance on
personal income, but has shifted
to users fees. User fees are paid
out with after tax dollars
Comments:

9. Blog – Ontario Issues
Liberal Supporters, you have two options: 1. Hike to Taxes 2. Cuts. BTW: public sector on average
makes 12% more than the private sector. It is time to get rid of big government!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/program-funding-and-spending-ontario or
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/allan-richarz-ontarios-teachers-are-overpaid - I google this post. So, why
can others google the issues?
1. Auditor General -
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports.html
2. Drummond Report - https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/the-drummond-
report-gave-ontario-a-good-plan-then-kathleen-wynne-buried-it
3. Moodys downgrade - https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/moodys-
downgrades-ontarios-credit-rating-from-aa3-to-aa2-citing-deficit
4. Ontario has spending problem https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/ontarios-
financial-problems-are-ontario-made
5. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/allan-richarz-ontarios-teachers-are-overpaid - Teachers

10. Healthcare Spending / Ontario
(2016-2017)
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Ontario or
https://www.rvh.on.ca/account/SiteAssets/SitePages/account/2017%20RVH%20Audited%20Financial%20Statements%20-%20Signed.pdf
• LHIN Operation Cost
$88M/year
• Wages/Ministry of
Health total $293M
Trudeau kept CPC funding
formula
https://canadians.org/bl
og/trudeau-government-
implements-harper-
governments-funding-
formula-health-care
• Royal
Victoria
Hospital
1. New funding does not mean it gets to patient -
https://www.simcoe.com/news-
story/6945785-barrie-s-rvh-could-pay-more-
than-180k-extra-for-hydro-next-year/ or
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/it-
is-a-failure-on-many-levels-ontario-failing-to-
adequately-support-the-elderly-critics-say
2. MRI Wait time -
https://youtu.be/5lD6TMEjyfk
3. Wait times -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018
/04/12/ontario-follows-national-trend-on-
wait-times-for-medical-procedures.html
4. Nurses have seen job cuts -
https://www.thespec.com/news-
story/8109542-ontario-nurses-walk-away-
from-contract-talks/
5. Overcrowding -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/hos
pital-overcrowding-leaves-patients-in-
hallways-despite-addition-of-beds-1.4438907
6. LHIN -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat
ional/auditor-general-finds-wide-variation-in-
home-care-supports-across-
ontario/article27565501/

11. Ontario / Healthcare
• https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/premier-ford-says-management-level-health-jobs-will-
be-axed-1.4334649
• “NDP deputy leader Sara Singh said she expects deep cuts in the government's first
budget, to be tabled next month. “He says only managers will lose their jobs, but
that's already untrue, and the cuts have only just begun," she said in a statement.”
• Where was Sara when Wynne’s budget forced cuts?
• https://www.queensjournal.ca/story/2017-09-29/editorials/stop-cutting-funding-to-
ontarios-healthcare/ or https://nationalpost.com/opinion/health-care-system-
pushed-to-breaking-point-with-recent-cuts-proposed-tax-changes or
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/ontario-election-the-health-care-decoy/
• It would be nice if Ms. Singh would pick up a F/S and/or AG report before making her
statements!
• http://www.carp.ca/2012/02/24/drummond-report-to-province-cut-costs-improve-
healthcare-2/ or
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-fiscal-and-economic-update-
february-2019
•

12. Education / Ontario – 2016-2017
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or http://www.wrdsb.ca/wefi/wp-
content/uploads/sites/19/WEFI-Audited-Financial-Statements-at-July-31-2017.pdf or https://www.wrdsb.ca/wp-
content/uploads/WRDSB-Financial-Statements-at-Aug-31-2017.pdf
• AG/Pension issue -
https://www.thestar.com/news/
queenspark/2017/09/07/govern
ment-and-auditor-general-at-
odds-over-size-of-ontarios-
deficit.html
• Waterloo
Board of
Education
Outcomes:
1. Graduation Rates -
https://news.ontario.ca/edu/en/2017/05/high-school-
graduation-rate-climbs-to-all-time-high.html - Grad rates
are up!
2. Quality of Students – Ontario students continue to lag in
areas like math and sciences -
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/11/30/ontario-
math-scores-for-10-year-olds-lag-behind-27-other-
countries.html
3. High youth employment rates -
http://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/jobless-rate-for-
youth-could-rise-economist-239887
4. Students lack the soft skills -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/potential-hires-
need-soft-skills-1.4206639
5. Minimum Wage / Jobs -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-
canada-estimates-60000-fewer-jobs-due-to-minimum-wage-
increases

13. Blog – Education
• Hi all, I like to educate many of you on the issues facing Ontario
and they are not pretty. The Drummond Report was very specific
that education had to change -
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/the-drummond-
report-gave-ontario-a-good-plan-then-kathleen-wynne-buried-it or
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/allan-richarz-ontarios-teachers-
are-
overpaid?fbclid=IwAR0D8RHxM5y2JykWZIWZZuspTke1VhPE_LEPb8R
BM2xs-YQEZvLu8PRNXsg
• Education is 2nd biggest expenditure that the province of Ontario
pays out - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-
fiscal-and-economic-cliff
• And https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-
policy-education-ontario
• Funding for education is based on students. There are many
schools that have issues with enrolment.
https://www.northernpolicy.ca/article/ontario-school-closures-a-
%E2%80%9Cdollars-and-sense%E2%80%9D-alternative-%E2%80%93-
community-hub-schools-1351.asp
• Teacher compensation is a big issues for school boards -
https://business.financialpost.com/executive/careers/teachers-
should-earn-their-high-pay This is a big issue for school boards.

14. Post-Secondary Education
Spending / Ontario (2016-2017)
Source - https://files.ontario.ca/en_publicaccounts_annualreport_cfs_2017-9.pdf or
https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Ontario or
 Stable employment no longer guaranteed
-
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/millen
nial-jobs-education-1.4009295
 Skills Trade Gaps / Ontario -
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-
news/local-chamber-acts-to-address-
skills-mismatch
 Student Debt -
http://www.queensjournal.ca/story/2018
-02-02/features/what-happens-when-you-
cant-afford-to-be-a-student/
 Ontario Income barely rose -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2
017/09/13/canadian-incomes-jump-but-
ontario-residents-hit-by-manufacturing-
downturn-statistics-canada.html
 Ontario investment /
http://business.financialpost.com/opinio
n/philip-cross-ontarios-50000-job-losses-
kick-off-wynnes-anti-business-backfire

15. Post-Secondary / Ontario
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-colleges-university-performance-funding-budget-1.5094751
The Ontario govt new approach to funding is the right approach which is tie it to outcome. Too many schools
pushed out graduates with degrees that have little value. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-and-
beyond-career-management or
https://educationnewscanada.com/article/education/category/economy/96/761451/colleges-applaud-ontario-
budget-commitment-to-modernize-apprenticeship-training.html

16. Job and Prosperity Fund
• Many thanks to Wynne and
her team for driving out FDI
https://www.thestar.com/ne
ws/canada/2017/09/13/can
adian-incomes-jump-but-
ontario-residents-hit-by-
manufacturing-downturn-
statistics-canada.html
•
• The only thing Liberals are
good at is handing out
moneys
• https://www.slideshare.net/
paulyoungcga/government-
policy-jobs-and-prosperity-
fund-ontario

17. Hydro / Fair Hydro
Liberal supporter,
• So, Fraser Institute is wrong, right? So, is the AG report wrong as well?
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/news/11_newsreleases/2011ne
ws_3.03.pdf
•
• Ontario AG
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/F
airHydroPlan_en.pdf or
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-auditor-
general-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168
•
• I have done my own work through reviewing different information and
high hydro rates have driven out business -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failed-clean-energy-
policies-ontario-wynne-and-mcguinty
•
• Ontario businesses are at the breaking point with the Liberals as they
have seen carbon taxation, elimination of EHT threshold, high hydro
rates, planned hikes to minimum wage, etc. Business can adjust to
government policies, but not when they continue to be slammed by
Wynne with bad after bad policy!
•
• Jobs replaced by manufacturing have been lower in pay, like
retail/transportation/etc. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-
on-business/economy/census-2016-statscan-
income/article36242392/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
•
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-
auditor-general-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168
“Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk investigated the financing
of what the Ontario Liberals call the "Fair Hydro Plan." The
plan has reduced the average household electricity bill in
the province by 25 per cent from the peak in the summer
of 2016.
Lysyk said the government is "improperly" accounting for
the $26 billion in debt the province is taking on to cut
hydro bills in the short term.
The $26 billion is being borrowed through Ontario Power
Generation, so will not appear on the province's books.
Electricity customers will pay off that debt through rate
increases spread out over the next 30 years.

18. Ontario Competitiveness
• Hydro rates too high -
https://news.ontario.ca/mndmf/en/2019/03/ford-government-taking-
bold-action-to-fix-hydro-mess.html
• Businesses said changes to minimum wage and other labor laws were too
much too soon - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ont-labour-
reform-1.4914613
• Ontario moving forward plans to support mining, forestry -
https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/tories-commit-to-
moving-ring-of-fire-forward
• Small businesses support changes to small business tax, apprenticeship
and red tap - https://saultonline.com/2019/04/cfib-ontario-budget-
speaks-to-small-business-priorities/

19. Poverty / Ontario
•
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-ontario-poverty
• https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/welfare-reform-on-its-way-
food-bank-use-soars
• “Right now, in the province of Ontario, one-in-seven people are living in
poverty. We have almost a million people on social assistance … ODSP or
Ontario Works.”
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-ontario-poverty
• “Right now, in the province of ON, one-in-seven people are living in
poverty. We have almost 1M people on social assistance
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-ontario-poverty
@MitzieHunter
Your govt failed!
@AndreaHorwath
You back the liberals, right?
@ontarioisproud @MacLeodLisa

20. Ontario / Clean Technology

21. Ontario Failed Clean Energy Policies
• FIT – Failures - http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/boondoggle-how-
ontarios-pursuit-of-renewable-energy-broke-the-provinces-electricity-system
• Electrical Car Failures - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-
cuts-off-rebates-for-electric-vehicles-costing-more-than-75k-1.4571548 - This
never bumped car sales
• Smart Meter - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/smart-meters-hydro-
bills-ontario-time-of-use-pricing-1.3862462
• http://torontosun.com/2017/09/05/ontario-energy-efficiency-programs-wont-
work/wcm/6ae78550-0289-413c-a56e-e7abc6ef6e94 - Minimal savings
• https://twitter.com/AndreaHorwath/status/1009238019226947587 or
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/regulation/ontario-green-renovation-
rebates-funded-through-cap-and-trade-system-cancelled-214926/

22. Ontario Conservation Authority
It never seems to amaze me how little people understand how government agencies like Conservation Authorities operate in Ontario.
• Conservation Authority / Niagara http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports.html https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news-story/8931284-npca-
needs-to-restore-public-trust-says-auditor-general/ “Bonnie Lysyk's audit report of the agency, released Thursday afternoon found "weak governance and operational practices at
NPCA" plus "significant issues" across several areas that included areas of human resources and procurement policies, poor flood mapping data and leadership problems.”
• Greenbelt planning issues - http://aware-simcoe.ca/2018/04/mle-debacle-conservation-authority-fails-its-own-test-in-georgina/ “Last week, the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation
Authority (LSRCA) decided to issue a Section 28 permit to developer DG Group to allow for the construction of a 1,073 unit subdivision in a Provincially Significant Wetland. The
LSRCA board supported a staff report recommending issuing the permit despite the fact that the report was riddled with legal errors and that it found that DG Group’s application
failed to meet the Conservation of Land test required to issue a Section 28 permit. That didn’t stop the LSRCA, which decided that it could still issue the permit in return for DG
Group giving up control of lands within the Greenbelt Protected Countryside that it has no authority to develop.
• https://www.tvo.org/article/ontarios-conservation-authorities-are-broken-and-the-government-is-finally-trying-to-fix-them Failures under the Liberals – “Ontario’s conservation
authorities are on the front lines in the battle against climate change. They oversee flood protection for much of the province, and they’re also tasked with taking care of its
watersheds but the laws that govern them are woefully out of date, which has led to a patchwork system of accountability. That system has been criticized in Niagara, where the
local conservation authority has faced allegations of corruption, is waging a legal battle against a concerned citizen, and has jousted with the municipalities who fund it.”
• Urban Planning - https://www.watercanada.net/municipalities-province-must-act-on-conservation-authority-funding-transparency/ “With the passage of Bill 139, Building Better
Communities and Conserving Watersheds Act, 2017, in December, the elevated role of provincial Conservation Authorities (CAs) has garnered the attention of Ontario
municipalities struggling with the tax burden of supporting CA operating budgets and those concerned about the accountability and transparency of the Authorities.”
• Municipal govt fights - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/npca-court-challenge-1.4503899 “City council voted Wednesday to ask Ontario divisional court for a judicial
review of the levy increase. This comes after the province's deputy mining and lands commissioner sided with NPCA over an increase of roughly $1 million more per year for
Hamilton. Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) followed the NPCA's lead this week, increasing the city's annual levy by about $1.1 million too. Combined with Conservation
Halton's increase, that amounts to about $2.2 million per year more on Hamilton taxpayers.”
• Conservation Authorities and oversight - https://www.hamiltonnews.com/news-story/7367789-ontario-proposes-stricter-oversight-of-conservation-authorities/ “Ontario Minister of
Natural Resources Kathryn McGarry says municipalities will be responsible to properly oversee the operations and board appointments of conservation authorities.”
• Many cities still have archaic storm water systems - http://www.hurricanehazel.ca/ssi/evolution_flood_control.shtml or https://esemag.com/stormwater/one-ontario-city-
doubled-stormwater-funding/. There are many issues with municipalities - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipal-government-and-the-issues-at-hand
• Many municipalities charged storm water fees - http://www.mondaq.com/canada/x/380168/Environmental+Law/More+Cities+Adopting+Stormwater+Fees+You+Pave+You+Pay
• https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/conservation-authorities-ponder-how-to-prevent-flooding-with-less-funding “Lysyk identified several problems, including that
administrative spending rose 49 per cent from 2012 to 2017 while spending on watershed services dropped 18 per cent. Board members also often “involved themselves in the day-
to-day operations,” she found. Casgrain-Robertson points out that the audit focused on only one conservation authority and that the authorities are accountable to municipalities
within their watersheds. Rideau Valley, for example, has 18 municipalities within its watershed and has a representative from each municipal council on its 23-member board.”
• Many cities have done poor urban planning - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-planning-issues-facing-urban-planners-april-2019

23. Public Health Units
I am little tired of people reading the headlines and not grasping the both education and healthcare needs to
change their delivery model as part of eliminating excess management and focusing on value for money!
1. Public Health gets funding from municipalities - http://www.amo.on.ca/AMO-
Content/Backgrounders/2018/MunicipalGovernmentsAreFundingPartnersinHealthServ.aspx
2. Consolidation/synergies - https://globalnews.ca/news/5158688/ontario-budget-public-health/
3. Too many layers of managing healthcare - https://www.longwoods.com/content/25349//the-independence-
of-ontario-s-public-health-units-does-governing-structure-matter-
4. Liberals look at consolidation - https://lfpress.com/2018/03/06/medical-officer-of-health-chris-mackie-
fails-to-win-middlesex-approval-of-move-to-cheaper-digs/wcm/90336c19-0b10-5152-07b1-e6f7a098b513
5. Value for money/operational changes - https://healthydebate.ca/opinions/how-public-health-is-funded-in-
canada-and-why-that-needs-to-change
6. Lack of oversight - https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/cautionary-tales-on-leadership-from-algoma-
public-health-181298
•

24. Auditor – General / Ontario
• 2017 Report - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/auditor-generals-2017-
annual-report-identifies-need-for-better-government-planning-to-act-on-known-
issues-662331143.html
• 2016 Report -
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/11/30/highlights-of-ontario-
auditor-generals-report.html
• 2015 – Report - https://globalnews.ca/news/2375292/highlights-of-the-ontario-
auditor-generals-2015-annual-report/
• 2014 Report - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/10-highlights-from-ontario-
auditor-general-s-annual-report-1.2140017
• 2013 Report - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/five-highlights-
from-ontario-auditor-general-report/article15854104/

25. Summary
• Ontario 2018-2019 budget was fair and prudent
• Public Sector unions are on notice that path to balance will come
through changes to your compensation package
• Ontario PC heading the right direction when addressing
competitive issues facing Ontario business