Allot will be said about GDP as part of the election build in June 2018. The problem is major areas will not be discussed by Wynne as it would paint a picture that shows Wynne was poor steward of the Ontario Economy. Economies are driven by many factors including capital investment and consumer spending. Government only role is to set policies. Wynne and McGuinty policies have led to implementation of carbon pricing, labor reforms, hikes to hydro rates, longer regulatory approval process for natural resources, killing of the east-west pipelines, etc. Both McGuinty and Wynne continue to spend beyond their means in terms of their fiscal management cycle. The reality is businesses get scared when faced with more taxes and/or more regulations.

1. TRUTH ABOUT ONTARIO
ECONOMY – FEBRUARY 2018
PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
FEBRUARY 6, 2018

2. SUMMARY
• Allot will be said about GDP as part of the election build in June 2018. The
problem is major areas will not be discussed by Wynne as it would paint a
picture that shows Wynne was poor steward of the Ontario Economy.
• Economies are driven by many factors including capital investment and
consumer spending. Government only role is to set policies. Wynne and
McGuinty policies have led to implementation of carbon pricing, labor
reforms, hikes to hydro rates, longer regulatory approval process for natural
resources, killing of the east-west pipelines, etc.
• Both McGuinty and Wynne continue to spend beyond their means in terms of
their fiscal management cycle. The reality is businesses get scared when
faced with more taxes and/or more regulations.

3. AGENDA
• Overall Manufacturing
• Jobs and Wages
• Automotive Sector
• Class 8 Truck
• Steel Industry
• Food Processing
• Ontario Mining Sector
• Ontario Deficit and Debt

4. OVERALL MANUFACTURING SECTOR -
ONTARIO
Source – Stats Canada
• Hydro rates have cost 75,000
manufacturing jobs over the past few
years -
http://business.financialpost.com/opini
on/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-
thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-
disaster
• Carbon taxes do not support GDP
growth as matter fact reduce GDP -
http://business.financialpost.com/com
modities/energy/ottawas-carbon-tax-
plan-to-shrink-economy-by-3-billion-
hurt-loonie-in-2018-study
• Ontario has seen reduced productivity
due to poorly constructed tax policies,
labor reforms, regulatory filing issues,
etc -
https://www.competeprosper.ca/blog/f
ive-things-to-know-about-ontarios-
manufacturing-exports
• Ontario was economic engine of Canada

5. EMPLOYMENT – F/T VS P/T
Source - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180105/t002a-eng.htm or http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-
quotidien/170106/dq170106a-eng.htm or http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160108/dq160108a-
eng.htm
• Full-Time jobs as % of employment are down since the LPC took office in November 2015
• Ontario has more people working P/T as % of employment since LPC took office in November
2015
• Bill Morneau told people get used to job churning - http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-
current-for-october-25-2016-1.3818896/are-short-term-jobs-the-new-normal-1.3818898
• Wages have barely grown over the past decade for Ontario -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-median-income-growth-sluggish-
over-past-10-years-statscan-figures-show

6. AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR
Source -
http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/scpt/gbm/scotiaeconomics63/GAR_2018-
01-30.pdf
Issues:
• Labour Laws – Magna is at the
tipping point in terms of
expanding their operations in
Ontario -
https://www.bnn.ca/magna-
takes-aim-at-wynne-government-
s-new-labour-laws-1.810174
• CAMI came within days of closing.
CAMI has sited carbon tax, hydro
rates, other taxes are too high in
Ontario -
http://business.financialpost.com/
transportation/autos/gm-strike
• Wynne has given handouts to
automotive through her jobs and
prosperity funds, but those
handouts in many cases just led to
current jobs being kept.
• Trump’s content rules on NAFTA
could also impact the automotive
sector in Ontario

7. ONTARIO / CLASS 8 TRUCKS
Source – The Trucker
• There are small trailer plants, but
those plants are very small in terms
of size
• Ontario used to produced Class 8
Trucks, but plant closures have
happen like the following:
• Sterling Trucks -
http://www.stthomastimesjourn
al.com/2008/10/14/sterling-
truck-plant-to-close
• Navistar Trucks -
https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/na
vistar-closing-truck-plant-in-
chatham-ont-1.678209

8. STEEL PRODUCTION / ONTARIO
Source – World Steel Association
• Wynne implemented carbon tax
ignoring any economic impact study
- http://pricecarbonnow.org/effect-
carbon-pricing-competitiveness-
industries (Steel is carbon based
business
• Steel has modernized over the years
due to changes in manufacturing
processes
• McGuinty made promises on Stelco
Pensions -
https://www.thespec.com/news-
story/2190466-u-s-steel-pensions-
loans-safe-mcguinty-says/
• Liberals never grasp cost pressures
facing large business as such many
large business either scale back
operations or close up all together in
Ontario

9. ONTARIO FOOD PROCESSING SECTOR
Source -
https://www.mentorworks.ca/blog/market-
trends/ontario-food-and-beverage-industry-
Today, approximately 3,800 Ontario
food and beverage processing
companies provide crucial resources
to both local and international
consumers. The province continues to
be an ideal location for business
owners in the food and beverage
industry based on access to natural
resources, innovation, and skilled
labour. In 2016, Ontario’s agriculture
sector increased its total output
by 3% and contributed over $40
billion towards the provincial
economy. However, there is still room
to improve the sectors rate of growth
and development throughout 2017.
Food and Beverage Ontario (FBO)
recently released its annual report
underlining some of the major trends
or areas of concern within the sector.
The top four challenges food and
beverage processing businesses face,
include:
• Workforce development and access
to skilled labour;
• Provincial electricity costs;
• Regulatory issues; and
• Implementation of growth
strategies.

10. ONTARIO MINING SECTOR
Source -
• 9 mine sites operating in Ontario
• Nickel, gold, copper, zinc and platinum group metals
• Diamonds, salt, gypsum, talc, calcium carbonate, nepheline
syenite and other industrial minerals
• Ontario is the largest producer in Canada of gold, platinum group
metals and nickel, and the second largest producer of copper.
The province is also a major producer of salt and structural
materials.
• Mining benefits all areas of the province, providing a broad scope
of employment and entrepreneurial opportunities.
• Ontario is one of the safest mining jurisdictions in the world and
mining is one of the safest industries in Ontario, achieving a 96%
improvement in lost time injury frequency over the past 30
years.
• Value of mineral production in Ontario was $10.8 billion in 2015.
See Ontario mineral production highlights for 2015 and read
about the economic contribution of mining to the province.
• 90% of the mining GDP stays inside Ontario.
• 78,000 mineral production employees include direct employment
of 16,100.
• The opposite can be said
of two of Canada’s other
large jurisdictions —
British Columbia and
Ontario — which dropped
in this year’s rankings.
Internationally, Ontario
places 18th (down three
spots from last year) and
B.C. ranks 27th, more than
ten places lower than its
2015 position (18th).
http://www.mining.com/c
anadas-saskatchewan-
manitoba-worlds-new-
top-mining-destinations/

11. ONTARIO DEBT / DEFICIT
• Ontario’s budget watchdog says that the province’s deficit will be $2.6 billion in 2017-18,
despite a Liberal government pledge to balance the books by then. The Financial
Accountability Office released its economic and fiscal outlook today, saying that beyond
that fiscal year the deficit will deteriorate further to $3.7 billion in 2020-21.
• Ontario’s Liberal government is dipping into its reserve fund to help balance the budget
for the next two years, ahead of the next provincial election.
• An accounting dispute with the auditor general over how pension assets should appear
on the books is adding $2.2 billion to the deficit this fiscal year, but the government
insists it will reach balance by its self-imposed deadline of 2017-18.
• Ontario universities face several financial pressures, among them pension solvency
deficits, according to a new commentary by debt rating service DBRS Ltd. (who is on the
hook for the pension shortfall?

12. WHAT’S NEXT
• Ontario – area of focus
• Low dollar has insulated Ontario from global pressures
• High hydro rates are impacting business investment -
http://www.occ.ca/portfolio/empowering-ontario/
• Red Tape is delay projects (http://business.financialpost.com/news/mining/what-
ontario-needs-to-unlock-ring-of-fires-mineral-wealth-is-a-marshall-plan
• Broken arbitration system (http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6069-
government-wages.html
• Carbon taxation (https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/10/04/how-trudeaus-
carbon-price-plan-will-affect-five-canadian-industries.html or
• Innovation spending (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/economy/canada-falling-behind-in-research-and-
development/article21605656/)
• Slow global economy
(http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf
• Ontario business investment - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-
quotidien/160510/dq160510a-eng.pdf
• Ontario heads to another election in 2018
• Issues at hand
• Hydro Rates
• Economy
• Delivery of program spending
• Government debt
• Taxation/carbon tax