Ontario GDP will grow at pace of 1.8 to 2.3% for the next decade or so. Ontario has spending a problem - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/spending-is-the-source-of-ontarios-deficit-and-debt-problem Moodys has downgraded bonds and put Ontario on watch (http://www.metronews.ca/news/canada/2015/02/23/ontario-has-a-serious-spending-problem-finds-credit-report.html) Budget watchdog also doubts Ontario will balance the budget - http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ontario-watchdog-says-balanced-budget-unlikely-for-several-years-despite-liberals-pledge Healthcare professionals are saying the system is max (https://cupe.ca/1000-hospital-staff-travel-great-distances-kingston-rally-end-funding-freeze-choking-ontario Ontario has issues with delivery of precious tax dollars to programs like healthcare, education, etc. Hydro rates are schedule to go up after 2019 - https://globalnews.ca/news/3827189/hydro-ontario-plan-cost/

1. Ontario – Kathleen Wynne
and Dalton McGuinty Era –
January 2018
PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
JANUARY 27, 2018

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Summary / Ontario
 Ontario GDP will grow at pace of 1.8 to 2.3% for the next decade or so.
 Ontario has spending a problem - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/spending-is-the-source-of-
ontarios-deficit-and-debt-problem
 Moodys has downgraded bonds and put Ontario on watch
(http://www.metronews.ca/news/canada/2015/02/23/ontario-has-a-serious-spending-problem-finds-credit-
report.html)
 Budget watchdog also doubts Ontario will balance the budget -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ontario-watchdog-says-balanced-budget-unlikely-for-
several-years-despite-liberals-pledge
 Healthcare professionals are saying the system is max (https://cupe.ca/1000-hospital-staff-travel-great-
distances-kingston-rally-end-funding-freeze-choking-ontario
 Ontario has issues with delivery of precious tax dollars to programs like healthcare, education, etc.
 Hydro rates are schedule to go up after 2019 - https://globalnews.ca/news/3827189/hydro-ontario-plan-
cost/

4. Government Revenue/Ontario
Source – Government of Ontario, Stats Canada and Federal Government of Canada
Commentary and Analysis
• McGuinty introduced harmonized sales tax
• McGuinty introduced Ontario Health Premium tax
• Ontario is recipient of equalization payments
• Wynne is selling of assets, i.e. Ontario Power Generation
• Wynne is introducing carbon taxes / 2017
• McGuinty cut corporate tax rates
• Ontario loss over 300,000 manufacturing jobs
• Ontario growing public sector jobs greater than private
sector

5. Government Spending/Ontario
Source – Government of Ontario, Stats Canada and Federal Government of Canada
% of Expenses /Spending
Analysis Commentary
• Harris spent close to 40% on healthcare as compare to McGuinty and
Wynne that spend approximately 38% on healthcare
• LHINs and CCAC were created but have done little in terms of improving
wait times and/or controlling of costs
• Education received more money, but we have more grads having hard
time finding jobs. Meanwhile. Ontario has significant skills gas that could
influence FDI
• Wynne pledge to bring the debt down to 26% of GDP. If Wynne were to
bring the debt down then should need to reduced the debt by $10B per
year.
• Drummond report was virtually ignored and it was succinct in terms of
Ontario has spending problem. Ontario is spending from 18.5 to 17.5%
of GDP of government and only taking in 16.8% in revenue. More
taxation is not the answer

6. Ontario Competitiveness
 Source – Stats Canada

7. Cap and Trade
 http://www.torontosun.com/2017/04/11/wynnes-cap-and-trade-lacks-transparency
First, cap and trade doesn’t just impact the cost of home heating fuel and gasoline, but almost all
consumer products. Food, for example, is grown and transported to market using fossil fuel
energy, so when the price of gas goes up due to cap and trade, so does the price of food. So
does the price of fertilizer.
The second problem is that Wynne’s government was 34% low in predicting monthly natural gas
bills for average homeowners would rise by $5.
The average price increase since Jan. 1 has been $6.70 per month, according to natural gas
suppliers, while many homeowners report their bills are rising faster than that, as the actual
increase depends on the amount of natural gas a household consumes.
Meanwhile, the Wynne government refuses to break out the new cost of cap and trade on home
heating bills, although it tells hydro ratepayers in every bill, down to the penny, how much its 8%
rebate on the provincial portion of the HST is saving them.
Toronto Sun – Lorrie Goldstein – April 11, 2017

8. Key areas of waste
 P3 Costs $8B (source: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/12/09/publicprivate_financing_cost_ontario_taxpayers_8_billion_auditor_says.html)
 Equalization $10B (http://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Ontario)
 Gas Plant Cancellation $1.1B (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/10/08/liberals_power_plant_cancellations_cost_11b_auditor_general.html)
 eHealth $1B (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ehealth-scandal-a-1b-waste-auditor-1.808640)
 Selling excess power $1B/year http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/ontario-paid-1-billion-to-export-surplus-power-in-2013-ndp-say-1.1647299 - 2013 amount only)
 Wind Subsidies $1B/year (http://www.netnewsledger.com/2014/03/05/ontario-wind-energy-plans-costing-1-billion-annually/)
 Ontario capital Expenditures $11.8B (http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/paccts/2014/)
 Ontario shares of gas tax $750M (http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/alt-format/pdf/GTF-FTE-20140905-eng.pdf)
 Municipalities Capital spending $6B (http://www.amo.on.ca/Advocacy.aspx?searchtext=capital&searchmode=exactphrase&date=0;&issue=0;&category=0;)
 Wynne’s AIT Issues - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-premier-brad-wall-concerned-about-ontario-quebec-position-on-energy-east-1.2848930.
 Oliver and Wynne barb over infrastructure - http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/procurement/ontario-ottawa-trade-barbs-infrastructure-funding-plan-142206/
 Broken Arbitration system - http://www.lfpress.com/2014/02/22/small-municipalities-across-ontario-crushed-by-soaring-opp-policing-costs - Wynne was McGuinty’s right
hand person - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mcguinty-defends-85-per-cent-pay-hike-for-opp-in-2014/article1360155/
 Forest Management cuts - http://www.torontosun.com/2013/12/17/liberals-latest-disaster-in-works-leaves-northern-ontario-vulnerable

9. Drummond Report
 Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/drummond-report-on-ontario-calls-for-cutbacks-1.1138568
The Ontario government must curtail its spending with the kind of cuts not seen since the Mike
Harris years, according to a report by former TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond.
Released Wednesday, Drummond’s report calls for extensive spending reductions and warns that
without his recommended belt-tightening, the province will face a crippling $30-billion deficit by
2017-18.
Drummond warns that failing to follow such severe austerity measures could cause Ontario’s
debt, which currently stands at $215 billion, to balloon to more than $411 billion in five years.
February 15, 2012

10. Moodys / Spending Ontario
 https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/02/23/moodys-says-ontario-has-a-spending-problem.html

11. Education
 https://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2017/05/04/121-ontario-schools-slated-to-close-report.html

12. Education Funding
Source – Government of Ontario
2015-2016A 2016-2017A 2017-2018
25.1 25.7 26.5
% change 2.4% 1.6%
• Ontario Government includes the
pension adjustment that AG
disputes -
https://www.thestar.com/news/que
enspark/2017/02/13/pensions-are-
an-asset-expert-panel-
concludes.html
• Rural school closing continue to happen due to declining enrolment
• Students are failing in areas like math and sciences -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/08/30/math-scores-flat-falling-among-ontario-elementary-
students.html
• Government has allow school boards to handle pay increases and/or other costs -
https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/ontarios-school-boards-are-a-mess-we-made

13. Education / cuts
 https://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2017/05/04/121-ontario-schools-slated-to-close-report.html
http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2012/06/14/catholic-school-board-laying-off-10-library-support-specialists
http://www.lfpress.com/2013/04/23/london-district-catholic-school-board-says-declining-enrolment-behind-reductions
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/141683/sixty-percent-of-school-boards-to-cut-jobs-more-expected-liberal-failure-to-fix-faulty-
funding-formula-creating-another-year-of-crisis
http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/260938/toronto-and-peel-school-boards-prepare-for-biggest-cuts-since-harris-years/
http://campaignforpubliceducation.ca/?p=1416
http://www.therecord.com/news-story/2594137-catholic-school-board-cuts-20-full-time-jobs/
http://weareontario.ca/index.php/windsor-essex-catholic-school-board-cuts-11-2-million/

14. Ontario Healthcare
Source – Government of Canada and Ontario Government
2015-
2016
2016-
2017
2017-
2018
$13,095 $13,899 $14,362
Change 6.1% 3.3%
Federal Transfer for Healthcare
2015-
2016
2016-
2017
2017-
2018
$51,011 $52,206 $53,753
Change 2.3% 3.0
Ontario Transfers to Healthcare
• Hospital funding issues - http://healthydebate.ca/2015/02/topic/politics-of-health-care/philanthropy
• Hospital costs - http://www.lfpress.com/2017/03/21/hydro-london-health-sciences-centre-electricity-use-
falls-but-costs-up-30-per-cent
• Funding - https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2015/04/22/budget-will-see-tough-decisions-in-
health-care.html
• LHINs and CCAC - https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2015/11/06/community-care-access-centres-
likely-to-be-dismantled.html

15. Healthcare
 PBO - http://cupe.ca/canadas-health-care-system-about-lose-36-billion. Yet nothing is said
on the waste with healthcare, why? http://www.nugget.ca/2015/03/31/workers-rally-for-
new-health-accord. It seems like unions are complaining at funding from the Feds, but say
nothing on the LHINs or CCAC - http://blogs.windsorstar.com/opinion/the-stars-view-
time-to-audit-ccacs-and-the-lhins or revenue like Ontario Health Premium that does not
go to healthcare -
http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/paccts/2014/14_cfs.html#operations


16. Arbitration
 Ontario has never fixed its arbitration process - http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/the-
ontario-laws-that-force-cities-to-keep-spending-more-on-unionized-workers
 Firefighting Costs
 http://www.theobserver.ca/2015/10/29/confusion-swirls-over-impact-of-fire-service-cutbacks or
http://www.owensoundsuntimes.com/2017/01/17/owen-sound-aims-to-stem-fire-costs

17. Jobs and Prosperity Fund
Source -
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/news/15_newsreleases/2015ne
ws_3.04.pdf

18. Hydro Rates

19. Fair Hydro Plan
Liberal supporter,
 So, Fraser Institute is wrong, right? So, is the AG report wrong as well?
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/news/11_newsreleases/2011news_3.03.pdf

 Ontario AG http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/FairHydroPlan_en.pdf or
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-auditor-general-report-fair-hydro-plan-wynne-1.4358168
 I have done my own work through reviewing different information and high hydro rates have driven out business -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failed-clean-energy-policies-ontario-wynne-and-mcguinty
 Ontario businesses are at the breaking point with the Liberals as they have seen carbon taxation, elimination of EHT threshold,
high hydro rates, planned hikes to minimum wage, etc. Business can adjust to government policies, but not when they
continue to be slammed by Wynne with bad after bad policy!
 Jobs replaced by manufacturing have been lower in pay, like retail/transportation/etc.
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/census-2016-statscan-
income/article36242392/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&


20. Hydro Rates –
 http://www.torontosun.com/2017/02/24/liberals-botched-energy-plan-costs-us-all

21. Mistake that broke Hydro
 https://www.pressreader.com/canada/national-post-latest-edition/20161124/281681139477783
“Your new government will restrain program spending to reduce
Ontario’s debt-to-GDP ratio, while recommitting itself to
eliminating the deficit by 2017-18.
And after that, it will restrict overall spending increases to 1%
below GDP growth until the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio returns
to the pre-recession level of 27%.
Sources:
http://tvo.org/transcript/2098464/video/programs/the-agenda-
with-steve-paikin/kathleen-wynne-ontarios-25th-premier or
http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/house-
proceedings/house_detail.do?Date=2013-02-19

22. Mining Investment – 2016 Ranking
Source - http://www.mining.com/canadas-saskatchewan-manitoba-worlds-new-top-mining-
destinations/
Ontario rank 18th a fall
of three spots from
2015

23. Automotive Sector / Ontario
Source - https://apma.ca/auto-sector-can-drive-ontarios-economy-forward-again/
Article did not mentioned the
following areas
• Carbon Taxation
• Elimination of the EHT
threshold for large payrolls
• Hikes planned for CPP
• Hikes to property tax

24. Ontario 2015

25. Sensitivity Analysis - Ontario
• Ontario would need to both increases in revenue as well as cuts to spending. This would mean running
surpluses between $5B to 8.5B for five years to bring the debt to gdp to 27%.

26.  Dear LPC or NDP supporter,
 I also work in fortune 500 for many years and that is also not the case in terms of adding 100K salaried employees. In fact there has
been cuts to high salary as part slashing middle to senior management positions with firms.
 The bulk of the business are small to medium size as such they do not pay 100K salaries very often as they cannot afford the costs.
 The government goes by its own drum as such does not necessarily align their pay scales with the private sector.
 Public Sector workers on average are paid 13% more than the private sector. The compensation earned by government workers is the
issue with me! http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6301-a-closer-look-at-private-public-sector-wage-gaps.html
 There many reason why system is broke:
 arbitration is not align with ability to pay
 Government pay grid is out align with private sector
 pension funding is not sustainable
 Government does not operate in competitive environment as such there is no pressure on wages other than internal restrictions.
 There are too many duplicate departments as such they add cost to the system (LHINs, CCAC, etc)
 Approximately 50 cents of any dollar spent by government is related to payroll. Ontario has $11B deficit as such half of the deficit goes
to compensation. http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-tax-and-spend-analysis

27. Homecare
 Wynne created the mess through focusing money on new departments. Wynne has no clue what it takes to
deliver dollars to patients!
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/healthcare-crisis-in-canada-january-2018
 AG – LHINs and CCAC - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/auditor-general-finds-wide-
variation-in-home-care-supports-across-ontario/article27565501/

28. Wynne and the Economy
 How about the fact your government has lost 75,000 mfg jobs?
 http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-
disaster
 How come incomes have grown only 3.8% for 10 years?
 http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/statistics-canada-census-2016-income-hightlights-1.4287179

29. Wynne Failed Policies
 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-ontario-election-2018-1.4455076?cmp=rss
 “More to come, right?”
 Minimum Wage will see job losses – https://globalnews.ca/news/3736740/ontario-minimum-wage-hike-job-losses/
 Hydro Rates are going up after 2019 - http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/a-whole-new-way-screw-up-hydro-is-underway-in-ontario-and-b-c
 Hospital continue to cut - https://www.baytoday.ca/local-news/hospital-to-cut-another-30-40-jobs-560905
 School closings - https://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2017/05/04/121-ontario-schools-slated-to-close-report.html
 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/thunder-bay-ring-of-fire-1.4442435 - Ring of fire is moving very slowly, especially since the Liberals kept
saying they would develop the Ring of Fire
 Rate payers - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ineligible-power-generator-costs-ontario-auditor-general-1.4435954
 http://www.ourmidland.ca/news/police-service/yet-another-police-service-finds-no-savings-switching-opp-2017-05-18 - I bet the OPP gets raises in
2018 as way to support the Liberals
 More money handout to companies - https://betakit.com/ontario-investing-up-to-5-million-in-think-research-to-create-228-jobs-in-toronto/
 More shifting to government jobs from the private sector - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ontario-home-care-ccac-lhin-1.4082732
 Government control of pot - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/province-cannabis-plan-1.4280484
 I bet there will be more carrots dangles to voters for Wynne to buy more votes from the People of Ontario. Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/issues-facing-ontario-2018-election

30. Summary
 Ontario is less competitive in 2017 than it was when Liberals took power in 2003
 Ontario has some highest hydro rates in North America
 Carbon taxation does not reduce emissions, but does increase overall costs to
consumers
 Ontario continues to drag its feet when it comes to developing natural resources, like
Chromite or Lithium or other areas
 Ontario productivity has worsen due to fact many companies are starting to make
investment in other jurisdiction
 Ontario debt is highest of any sovereign place in the world
 Systemic issues with real estate have not been addressed all levels of government as
well as the private sector