Download as PDF, PPTX
Uploaded byHAN Lean-QRM Centrum / HAN Lectoraat Lean
ELEC2017 - John Bicheno - Lean the Forgotten the Ignored the Possible
The document summarizes a talk given by John Bicheno at the Fourth European Lean Educator Conference in November 2017. The talk discusses concepts that have been forgotten, ignored, or represent new possibilities for Lean. These include early contributors to Lean like Lillian Gilbreth and Mary Follett, as well as ideas from operations research, behavioral economics, and agile methods. Bicheno argues that Lean must continue adapting and drawing from other fields to remain relevant in a changing world. Maintaining a flexible mindset and pursuing incremental improvements through small wins were presented as ways for Lean to evolve.
More Related Content
Similar to ELEC2017 - John Bicheno - Lean the Forgotten the Ignored the Possible
More from HAN Lean-QRM Centrum / HAN Lectoraat Lean
ELEC2017 - John Bicheno - Lean the Forgotten the Ignored the Possible
- 1. The Fourth European LeanEducator Conference November 2017 The Forgotten, The Ignored, The Possible John Bicheno
- 2. Why this talk? Has‘Lean’ been hijacked? (or drifted away ?) I hope not, but.... • First, the pioneers had valuable thoughts that it would be a waste to re-learn • Second, what a waste to ignore several valuable contributions. • Third, we stand on the brink of a new Lean opportunities....and threats.. BUT FIRST...
- 3. Last years’ ELECwas near Bletchley. The Codebreakers • An eclectic mix of skills • Hierarchy downplayed • Clear purpose but little ‘standard work’ • Excellent communication • Vs. German codebreakers Alan Turing and first computer Gorden Welchman and beginnings of internet
- 4. This years’ ELECis near Arnhem Nijmegen Failures of the Battle • Refusal to listen to the evidence • Guarding own ‘silos’ and reputations • Over ambitious • Not making good use of available resources A Bridge Too Far Let us try to avoid these!
- 5.
- 6. The Fathers ofLean? Ford and Taylor • ‘Nothing could have been further from Taylorism than Ford’s assembly line. Whereas Taylor designed ideal shovels, Ford abolished shoveling by using electric cranes, moving belts, and other devices as aids to continuous flow manufacturing. Taylor retrained a worker to to do the same job more efficiently; the assembly line redefined and simplified jobs. Taylor offered workers incentives to do piecework more quickly; Ford made piece rates pointless...Instead workers received a high fixed wage...Taylor maximised efficiency... Ford transformed the means of production. Taylor saved time; Ford sped up time..’ Bicheno at ELEC 2017 6 From David Nye, ‘America’s Assembly Line’, MIT Press, 2013, page 34 But in a complex world, Taylor is increasingly irrelevant…. …so, bring on the women….
- 7. Mothers of Lean:Lillian Gilbreth, Mary Follett
- 8. Toyota Founding Concepts? •First published in 1859, still available • ‘The spirit of self help is the root of all genuine growth in the individual; and, exhibited in the lives of many, it constitutes the true source of national vigor and strength’ • By learning to be more efficient, employees could improve the quality of their own lives and those of co-workers. They could also improve the quality of life for the people who used the products they made, which were consequently of more use and value. • ‘The greatest results in life are usually attained by the exercise of ordinary qualities… they who are the most persistent, and work with the truest spirit, will usually be the most successful.’ • Self Help - many great mean of humble origins, and self taught – who learned by doing and observation Bicheno at ELEC 2017 8 The book is on display at Sakichi Toyoda’s birthplace
- 9. The guys who(re)started it all Bicheno at ELEC 2017 9 Richard Schonberger and ‘Doc’ Hall (both have been to LERC, Cardiff) 1982 (8 years before ‘The Machine’)
- 10.
- 11. Schonberger and InventoryTurns ...and Toyota in Formula 1: Agility? Culture? Location?
- 12. Ignored? Open BookManagement Real ‘Respect’ ? But “Just as empowerment without sharing fails, so does sharing without empowerment.” Gen. Stanley McChrystal
- 13. Ignored: Yerkes-Dodson (1908) performance stress This,with Parkinson (see next), is the Great office and service challenge!
- 14. Parkinson’s Law (1957) •‘Work Expands to fill the time available for its completion’ • Ronald Reagan, when governor of California, asked Parkinson to explain why the number of painters on San Francisco's Oakland bridge increased from 14 to 72 once a labour-saving paint sprayer had been introduced. • Parkinson's Law has been applied in many different contexts. There is the IT version, for instance: “Data expands to fill the space available for storage.” Or the road transport version: “Traffic expands to fill the roads available for it.” • NHS administrators have grown from less than 10% in the 1950’s to more than 40% now.
- 15. Misused? ‘The Cultof the Expert’ • Business Schools as ‘Temples of the Cult’ – Parachute in – Quick gains & rewards – Quantitative and $ – No Gemba interest or experience – ‘Superficial response through case studies’ (Mintzberg)
- 16. Gemba experience: thepath to promotion? Now, landsmen all whoever you may be If you want to rise to the top of the tree If you soul isn’t fettered to an office stool Be careful to be guided by this Golden Rule Stick close to you desks and never go to sea And you all may be rulers of the Queen’s Navy (The First Sea Lord’s Song) (Gilbert and Sullivan 1878)
- 17. Ignored? Kingman’s Equation Bichenoat ELEC 2017 17 leadtime 30% Utilisation 100% Zero variation Small uncertainty Moderate variation High uncertainty L = (C2 a + C2 e)/2 x ( / (1- )) x te + te • Causes of muda • 100% (!) • Arrival variation • = load/capacity MuriMura
- 18. Resource Efficiency andFlow Efficiency Bicheno at ELEC 2017 18 30% Utilisation 100% (Resource efficiency) The Lean Sweet Spot Leadtime(Flowefficiency) Process time Can’t both be achieved simultaneously, but can be approached Focused application of Lean tools For instance.. (Modig and Åhlström)
- 19. Extending Kingman bringsthem together! Real Demand + Unnecessary Demand Utilization = Load = Capacity = Base Capacity - Waste Glenday (Sieve) Pareto (80/20 & RRS) Seddon (Failure Demand) Hopp and Spearman (Flow and interactions) Hinckley (Mistakes) Ohno (Waste) Goldratt (Bottlenecks) Shingo (SMED, Pokayoke) …Utilization and Leadtime is NON LINEAR!
- 20. Ignored: Operations Research Threequick stories..... • Chip placement and the Travelling Salesman problem • Supply Chain and ‘Transportation’ / Linear Programming • Healthcare Hospitals and DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) Why Six Sigma? Why not O.R.? ‘The Science of Better’ (INFORMS)
- 21. The Possible :Opportunity..and Threat
- 22. Lean: CI andDisruption Bicheno at ELEC 2017 22 Tools Era Six Sigma Era Quality Era ‘People’ Era ‘System’ Era Lean Product Design ‘Design Thinking’ ‘Lean Service’ AI Lean Startup & MVP RPA 3D Print & Addit Mfg Agile IT & SCRUM ? AR Blockchain Disruption is needed ?? ?
- 23. Lean : Reachingout ? Lean Behavioural Economics Creativity TRIZ and VE / VA Value = Benefits / (Costs + Harms) Ideality and Trends Someone has already solved it.. System1 (Hunch, intuition)) To System 2 (Analysis, Probability) Rational to Biased Kirton’s Adaptor-Innovator Theory Divergent and Convergent Thinking
- 24. Moore’s Law hasyears to run... • Doubling of transistors every 2 years (18 months ?) since mid 1970’s • Slowing to every 4 years? • Some predict it has years to run. Intel CEO in 2017 said it was ‘alive and well’ • Think about your phone capability – 2 X by 2020; 4 X by 2023 (!!) • Implications for Lean – E.g. In 2016 a CNC operator in Birmingham UK showed me how he links with a ‘club’ of other operators throughout the world….on his phone. Flexible Adidas sole emerging from 3D PrinterBut a more powerful tool would be wasted without a mindset re-think
- 25. What is possibleis not necessarily efficient • ‘Efficiency remains important, but the ability to adapt to complexity and continual change has become an imperative.’ – Gen Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams, Penguin, 2015 • Learning from Nelson and Trafalgar – Not the battle plan itself, but the preparation of Captain’s independent thought, fostered for many years prior to the battle • Avoiding the Perry Principle – The more visible something is, or the easier it is to communicate, the greater the temptation to control.
- 26. Converging Themes? Waterfall IT DesignFactory Scheduling People and Motivation Projects Agile SCRUM and Sprints Stage Gates Big Transformation Plans Kaizen Blitz Kata Optimization, OR, LP MRP, TOC Batches Kanban Heijunka DDMRP Change whole culture Top down KPI’s Small wins CPA, PERT Last Planner Simultaneous and Concurrent Eng. Set Based Lean Startup Bicheno at ELEC 2017 26
- 27. Small Wins andAgile • Lean Startup – Build, Measure, Learn – Minimum viable product • Sprints vs.. Waterfall • ‘Show me the evidence’ • Lean ‘UX’ Bicheno at ELEC 2017 27
- 28. Some References (outsideof Lean) 28 Kata Deliberate Practice ‘Small and varied Wins’ ‘Yet’ and Belief Bicheno at ELEC 2017 Dan Gilbert: ‘Pathways in the Brain’ ‘The more you do something.. Duhigg ‘Habit’ Amabile on Small Wins Motivation Kahneman on Confirmation Bias, Israeli recruits, +++ Carol Dwek on Mindset Colvin on Talent The 10k hour rule, With feedback
- 29. Some References (Lean) 29 Kata Deliberate Practice ‘Smalland varied Wins’ ‘Yet’ and Belief Bicheno at ELEC 2017 Maurer on ‘Kaizen: One Small Step…’ Spear on Experiments & Jack Smith Ohno on Thinking People Graupp On JI NUMMI and Workforce transformation Rother Mann on Leader Standard Work TWI (JR) Koenigsaecker On repeated kaizens Glenday ‘Economics of Repetition
- 30. Lean: Back tothe Future? Lean (Manufacturing and Service) Systems Theory Behavioural Economics TRIZ and VE Operations Research and Analytics Six Sigma Accounting for Lean and Measures Agile Software and Projects Lean Design and Design Thinking TPM DDMRP Factory Physics TOC TWI Automation AI, AR, RPA, 3D, Robots The future of (Lean) is past (Adapted from Rus Ackoff)
- 31. Summary of Trends(and hopes!) • Growth to sustainability • Exponential to S curve • (External) Implementing to (Internal) Leading • Big kaizen to many small • Narrow Lean to Encompassing Lean • Humble Experts • Projects to Ongoing • ‘Team of Teams’ • Individual improvement to Team improvement • Linear to Feedback • Rational economic man to behavioral man • Shop floor to design office • Closed book to open book • MPS to buffers • From manager to gardener • Cradle to grave to cradle to cradle • Free, Perfect and Now A threat to conventional mindset ?
- 32. So, back toBletchley and Arnhem Selective standardisation Training: more on teams, less on individuals (Kata, TWI) More flexible, participative organisation Learn from the military: Away from the Perry Principle Learn from Agile: Sprints, Scrum: The power of small wins Reaching out: the power of OR, TRIZ, Behav Economics Brain pathways + Small Wins + Belief As the world changes, so must Lean
- 33. The Fourth European LeanEducator Conference November 2017 The Forgotten, The Ignored, The Possible John Bicheno