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Edward Lorenz
 The Butterfly Man




    Abhranil Das
Sunrise on 20 Nov 2031: 5:52 AM [1]

Weather on 20 Nov 2011:     ?




                                      [1] : timeanddate.com
Edward Norton Lorenz

            Born in Connecticut

            Studied Mathematics at
             Dartmouth and Harvard

            Served as a forecaster in the US
             Army Air Corps from 1942-46

            Returned to study meteorology
             at MIT, published good orthodox
             papers

            Kept thinking about forecasting
The situation in the 1960’s


 Forecasting isn’t science; it’s guesswork.

 MIT: Work on problems that have solutions.

 Don’t trust computers.
“The machine, a Royal McBee, […] broke down every week or so. It had
neither the speed nor the memory to manage a realistic simulation of the
earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Yet Lorenz created a toy weather in
1960… Every minute the machine marked the passing of a day by printing
a row of numbers across a page… Digitized cyclones spun slowly around
an idealized globe.”


                                                   - Chaos, James Gleick
Newtonian determinism
          +
    the computer:

Weather problem solved.


        Or not.
“One day in the winter of 1961, wanting to examine one sequence at greater
length, Lorenz took a shortcut. Instead of starting the whole run over, he
started midway through. To give the machine its initial conditions, he typed
the numbers straight from the earlier printout.


“Then he walked down the hall to get away from the noise and drink a cup of
coffee. When he returned an hour later, he saw something unexpected,
something that planted a seed for a new science.”
The Butterfly Effect




           0.506127 → 0.506

Lorenz had a gut feeling it wasn’t the computer.

 And that it held true in the real atmosphere.
Lorenz was a meteorologist, and no one thought to look for chaos on page 130
of volume 20 of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
References


Chaos: the making of a new science
           James Gleick

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Edward Lorenz: The Butterfly Man

  • 1. Edward Lorenz The Butterfly Man Abhranil Das
  • 2. Sunrise on 20 Nov 2031: 5:52 AM [1] Weather on 20 Nov 2011: ? [1] : timeanddate.com
  • 3. Edward Norton Lorenz  Born in Connecticut  Studied Mathematics at Dartmouth and Harvard  Served as a forecaster in the US Army Air Corps from 1942-46  Returned to study meteorology at MIT, published good orthodox papers  Kept thinking about forecasting
  • 4. The situation in the 1960’s  Forecasting isn’t science; it’s guesswork.  MIT: Work on problems that have solutions.  Don’t trust computers.
  • 5. “The machine, a Royal McBee, […] broke down every week or so. It had neither the speed nor the memory to manage a realistic simulation of the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Yet Lorenz created a toy weather in 1960… Every minute the machine marked the passing of a day by printing a row of numbers across a page… Digitized cyclones spun slowly around an idealized globe.” - Chaos, James Gleick
  • 6. Newtonian determinism + the computer: Weather problem solved. Or not.
  • 7. “One day in the winter of 1961, wanting to examine one sequence at greater length, Lorenz took a shortcut. Instead of starting the whole run over, he started midway through. To give the machine its initial conditions, he typed the numbers straight from the earlier printout. “Then he walked down the hall to get away from the noise and drink a cup of coffee. When he returned an hour later, he saw something unexpected, something that planted a seed for a new science.”
  • 8. The Butterfly Effect 0.506127 → 0.506 Lorenz had a gut feeling it wasn’t the computer. And that it held true in the real atmosphere.
  • 9. Lorenz was a meteorologist, and no one thought to look for chaos on page 130 of volume 20 of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
  • 10. References Chaos: the making of a new science James Gleick