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the Economic Reform
Policies with Special
Attention to the
Monetary and Fiscal
Policies: the Case of
Jordan
Khalid W. Wazani
Chief
Economist/Strateg
Guest Speaker in “financial markets and institutions”
Table of Contents
2Khalid Wazani®
Jordan Economy: Characteristics & Challenges
3Khalid Wazani®
Jordan’s Socio-Economic Distortions
4
Khalid Wazani®
Jordan’s Socio-Economic Distortions
5
Khalid Wazani®
Some Socio-Economic Indicators in
Jordan
6
Khalid Wazani®
Indicator 2012
Population Growth % 2.2
Population below 15 years old 37.3
Population bet. 15-59 % 59.5
Family Size 5.4
Illiteracy Rate % 6.7
Women Participation Rate % 16.7
Rate of Electricity Connection % 99.9
Families owning Pc s or Laptop 57.5
Families having internet
connection t %
47.3
Families owning Mobiles/ Smart
Mobiles %
98.2
Families Owning TV 98.9
Average Real Growth Rates 2005-
2014
7
Khalid Wazani®
Real Growth Rates%
Period
8.24
2005-2007
4.96
2008-2010
2.60
2011
2.70
2012
2.8)Preliminary(
2013
3.5)Budget 2014(
2014
International Financial Institutions
8Khalid Wazani®
9Khalid Wazani®
Main International
Financial Institutions
‫الدولي‬ ‫النقد‬ ‫صندوق‬IMF
‫الدولي‬ ‫البنك‬WB
Facts about the WB & IMF
10Khalid Wazani®
 Both Institutions were established in 1944
right after the WWII to deal with structural
distortions in the world economic order
 The IMF was found to help creating a stable
money exchange system leading a dealing
with the temporary challenges of balance of
payments in member countries.
 The WB was established to provide long term
development loans to help in the
reconstruction process in the member
countries
The WB Group
11Khalid Wazani®
 The World Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(WBRD) 1944
 The International Development Association (IDA) 1956
 The International Financial Corporation (IFC) 1960
The International Center for Settlement of Investment
Disputes (ICSID) 1966
The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)
1988
IMF Lending Policies (Tranches
Policies)
12Khalid Wazani®
 Credit Tranche Policy consist of
 First Credit Tranche 25% of Quota with no conditionality
 Three Upper Credit Tranches of 25% each with escalated
Conditionality
 IMF Facilities:
 The Compensatory Financing Facility 1963
 Extended Fund Facility 1974
 Supplemental Reserve Facility 1976
 Contingent Credit Lines 1987
 The Enlarged Access Policy 1981
Stand-By Arrangement 1988
Determinant of IMF Lending Policies
13Khalid Wazani®
 Membership in IMF
 Approval of 75% of the Board Votes
 Using of all Credit Tranches
 Apply relevant agreed upon Conditionality
 Letter of Intent
 Structural and Stabilization Reform Measures.
 Demand Management Policies with some Supply side Flavors
Economic Reform Policies
14Khalid Wazani®
Facts on Economic Reform PoliciesFacts on Economic Reform Policies
15Khalid Wazani®
 Reform is an evolutionary continuous process
 Reform account for stabilizations and Structural Adjustment
Policies
 Reform is an Inclusive Policy where all Stakeholders should be
involved
Reform not only Manages Demand Side but also Expand the
Supply Side of the Economy
A country could Graduate from IMF Reform Program but Should
Never Stop Reforming
 Demand Management Policies with some Supply side Flavors
Economic PoliciesEconomic Policies
16Khalid Wazani®
Fiscal & Monetary Policies; the Case of Jordan
17Khalid Wazani®
Monetary Policy & the Case of Jordan
18
Khalid Wazani®
 Aims At Sound and Stable Monetary System and Exchange Rate
Through Controlling Money Supply & the Banking System
• ‫الكمية‬ ‫الدوات‬Quantitative Tools
•‫الخصم‬ ‫إعادة‬ ‫سعر‬Discount Rate
•‫المفتوحة‬ ‫السوق‬ ‫عمليات‬OMO
•‫الحتياطيات‬ ‫سياسة‬Required Reserves
/‫الكيفية‬ ‫النوعية‬ ‫الدوات‬Qualitative Tools
•( )‫الئتمانية‬ ‫السقوف‬ ‫الئتمان‬ ‫تأطير‬Credit
Ceilings
•‫التمويل‬ ‫تخصيص‬Credit Allocations
•‫مصرفية‬ ‫بعمليات‬ ‫المركزي‬ ‫البنك‬ ‫قيام‬The Bank
of the Governement
•‫الدبي‬ ‫القناع‬Moral Suasion
Fiscal Policy & the Case of Jordan
19Khalid Wazani®
 Aims at Demand Management policies that lead to reasonable
fiscal deficit, controlable public debt and results in a better economic
growth rate.
•
‫التلقائية‬ ‫الدوات‬Built – in Stabilizers
•‫التصاعدية‬ ‫الضرائب‬ ‫نظام‬Progressive Taxes (not
Applied yet(
•‫التحويلية‬ ‫المدفوعات‬Cash Transfers
•‫الدعم‬ ‫سياسات‬Subsidies Policy
( )‫المقصودة‬ ‫الموجهة‬ ‫الدوات‬Discretionary
Instruments
•( )‫تحتية‬ ‫بنية‬ ‫معينة‬ ‫لقطاعات‬ ‫الموجهة‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫برامج‬
Sectorial Financing Programs
•‫العامة‬ ‫التوظيف‬ ‫برامج‬Public Hiring
•‫الضرائب‬ ‫معدلت‬ ‫تغيير‬Diffrential Tax Rates
Applications of Economic Policy:
Where Did we Go Wrong in Jordan?!
Applications of Economic Policy:
Where Did we Go Wrong in Jordan?!
20Khalid Wazani®
•
Concluding Remarks
21Khalid Wazani®
Concluding SMSs
22Khalid Wazani®
 Jordan Economy has always been able to stand up for all challenges
and was able to create opportunities of some.
 Poor Economic Policies led to poor GDP; that means the economy is
much below it Potential output (Are we some where far inside our PPC)
 Supply Side Policies is highly needed today, especially when it comes to
investment atmosphere in Jordan. (Why we are going down ward in all
Investment Ranking Reports such as Competitiveness Report & Doing
Business Report)
 The Recent IMF SBA is mainly focusing on Demand Management
Policies with less attention to Supply-Side Policies
 in Developing Country Fiscal Policy is more effective than Monetary
Policy (St. Louis Model)
Dr. Khalid W. Wazani
kwazani@orange.jo
kwazani@issnaad.com
Twitter: @Khwazani
Thank You
23
Khalid Wazani®

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Economic reform policies tagcb

  • 1. the Economic Reform Policies with Special Attention to the Monetary and Fiscal Policies: the Case of Jordan Khalid W. Wazani Chief Economist/Strateg Guest Speaker in “financial markets and institutions”
  • 3. Jordan Economy: Characteristics & Challenges 3Khalid Wazani®
  • 6. Some Socio-Economic Indicators in Jordan 6 Khalid Wazani® Indicator 2012 Population Growth % 2.2 Population below 15 years old 37.3 Population bet. 15-59 % 59.5 Family Size 5.4 Illiteracy Rate % 6.7 Women Participation Rate % 16.7 Rate of Electricity Connection % 99.9 Families owning Pc s or Laptop 57.5 Families having internet connection t % 47.3 Families owning Mobiles/ Smart Mobiles % 98.2 Families Owning TV 98.9
  • 7. Average Real Growth Rates 2005- 2014 7 Khalid Wazani® Real Growth Rates% Period 8.24 2005-2007 4.96 2008-2010 2.60 2011 2.70 2012 2.8)Preliminary( 2013 3.5)Budget 2014( 2014
  • 9. 9Khalid Wazani® Main International Financial Institutions ‫الدولي‬ ‫النقد‬ ‫صندوق‬IMF ‫الدولي‬ ‫البنك‬WB
  • 10. Facts about the WB & IMF 10Khalid Wazani®  Both Institutions were established in 1944 right after the WWII to deal with structural distortions in the world economic order  The IMF was found to help creating a stable money exchange system leading a dealing with the temporary challenges of balance of payments in member countries.  The WB was established to provide long term development loans to help in the reconstruction process in the member countries
  • 11. The WB Group 11Khalid Wazani®  The World Bank for Reconstruction and Development (WBRD) 1944  The International Development Association (IDA) 1956  The International Financial Corporation (IFC) 1960 The International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) 1966 The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) 1988
  • 12. IMF Lending Policies (Tranches Policies) 12Khalid Wazani®  Credit Tranche Policy consist of  First Credit Tranche 25% of Quota with no conditionality  Three Upper Credit Tranches of 25% each with escalated Conditionality  IMF Facilities:  The Compensatory Financing Facility 1963  Extended Fund Facility 1974  Supplemental Reserve Facility 1976  Contingent Credit Lines 1987  The Enlarged Access Policy 1981 Stand-By Arrangement 1988
  • 13. Determinant of IMF Lending Policies 13Khalid Wazani®  Membership in IMF  Approval of 75% of the Board Votes  Using of all Credit Tranches  Apply relevant agreed upon Conditionality  Letter of Intent  Structural and Stabilization Reform Measures.  Demand Management Policies with some Supply side Flavors
  • 15. Facts on Economic Reform PoliciesFacts on Economic Reform Policies 15Khalid Wazani®  Reform is an evolutionary continuous process  Reform account for stabilizations and Structural Adjustment Policies  Reform is an Inclusive Policy where all Stakeholders should be involved Reform not only Manages Demand Side but also Expand the Supply Side of the Economy A country could Graduate from IMF Reform Program but Should Never Stop Reforming  Demand Management Policies with some Supply side Flavors
  • 17. Fiscal & Monetary Policies; the Case of Jordan 17Khalid Wazani®
  • 18. Monetary Policy & the Case of Jordan 18 Khalid Wazani®  Aims At Sound and Stable Monetary System and Exchange Rate Through Controlling Money Supply & the Banking System • ‫الكمية‬ ‫الدوات‬Quantitative Tools •‫الخصم‬ ‫إعادة‬ ‫سعر‬Discount Rate •‫المفتوحة‬ ‫السوق‬ ‫عمليات‬OMO •‫الحتياطيات‬ ‫سياسة‬Required Reserves /‫الكيفية‬ ‫النوعية‬ ‫الدوات‬Qualitative Tools •( )‫الئتمانية‬ ‫السقوف‬ ‫الئتمان‬ ‫تأطير‬Credit Ceilings •‫التمويل‬ ‫تخصيص‬Credit Allocations •‫مصرفية‬ ‫بعمليات‬ ‫المركزي‬ ‫البنك‬ ‫قيام‬The Bank of the Governement •‫الدبي‬ ‫القناع‬Moral Suasion
  • 19. Fiscal Policy & the Case of Jordan 19Khalid Wazani®  Aims at Demand Management policies that lead to reasonable fiscal deficit, controlable public debt and results in a better economic growth rate. • ‫التلقائية‬ ‫الدوات‬Built – in Stabilizers •‫التصاعدية‬ ‫الضرائب‬ ‫نظام‬Progressive Taxes (not Applied yet( •‫التحويلية‬ ‫المدفوعات‬Cash Transfers •‫الدعم‬ ‫سياسات‬Subsidies Policy ( )‫المقصودة‬ ‫الموجهة‬ ‫الدوات‬Discretionary Instruments •( )‫تحتية‬ ‫بنية‬ ‫معينة‬ ‫لقطاعات‬ ‫الموجهة‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫برامج‬ Sectorial Financing Programs •‫العامة‬ ‫التوظيف‬ ‫برامج‬Public Hiring •‫الضرائب‬ ‫معدلت‬ ‫تغيير‬Diffrential Tax Rates
  • 20. Applications of Economic Policy: Where Did we Go Wrong in Jordan?! Applications of Economic Policy: Where Did we Go Wrong in Jordan?! 20Khalid Wazani® •
  • 22. Concluding SMSs 22Khalid Wazani®  Jordan Economy has always been able to stand up for all challenges and was able to create opportunities of some.  Poor Economic Policies led to poor GDP; that means the economy is much below it Potential output (Are we some where far inside our PPC)  Supply Side Policies is highly needed today, especially when it comes to investment atmosphere in Jordan. (Why we are going down ward in all Investment Ranking Reports such as Competitiveness Report & Doing Business Report)  The Recent IMF SBA is mainly focusing on Demand Management Policies with less attention to Supply-Side Policies  in Developing Country Fiscal Policy is more effective than Monetary Policy (St. Louis Model)
  • 23. Dr. Khalid W. Wazani kwazani@orange.jo kwazani@issnaad.com Twitter: @Khwazani Thank You 23 Khalid Wazani®