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Overview of the Turkish Business
Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey


Demet Ozdemir
Partner, Transaction Advisory Services

February 2012
Doing Business in Turkey




Page 2   Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
The business environment to invest in
                 Turkey is quite favourable …
                 Why Turkey is a good market to invest in…
                                                       GDP (US$ billion)                                                      ►      Situated at the junction of Europe and Asia, Turkey is an
                                                                                                                                     important crossroad between Europe, the Middle East and Asia,
                 1.600                                                                                              1.456,3          facilitating easy access to 1.5 billion customers
                 1.400                                                                                    1.282,1
                 1.200                                                                          1.081,5                       ►      16th largest economy in the world with leading industries; energy,
                 1.000                                                                  885,4                                        telecommunications, agriculture, automotive, manufacturing,
       US$ bln




                                                              729,8             749,2
                   800                                646,2             614,5                                                        textiles, tourism, transportation and construction
                                    482,4    528,2
                   600       392
                   400
                                                                                                                              ►      Booming economy (US$ 305 billion to US$ 749.2 billion GDP
                   200                                                                                                               from 2003 to 2010) with sustainable economic growth.
                     0
                            2004     2005    2006     2007     2008     2009    2010    2011F   2012F     2013F     2014F

                                                              GDP (US$ bln)
                                                               F:Forecasted

                         Source: Global Insight, Undersecretariat of Treasury                                                                  GDP per capita and Real GDP growth

                            GDP Growth Rate (between 2001-Q1 and 2010-Q4)                                                           18.000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9,0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            13.734
                                                                                                                                    14.000                       9,0%                              12.489
                                                                                                                                                                          8,2%            11.263                     6,0%
15%                                                                                                                                          10.241             10.054   10.443   9.773
10%                                                                                                                                 10.000            8.530
                                                                                                                                                                                                   4,5%     4,9%     3,0%




                                                                                                                              US$
 5%                                                                                                                                                                                       3,6%
 0%                                                                                                                                  6.000                                                                           0,0%
                                                                                                                                             0,7%                                 1,3%
-5%
                                                                                                                                     2.000                                                                           -3,0%
-10%                                                 Uninterrupted growth for 27 quarters
-15%                                                                                                                                -2.000            -4,8%                                                          -6,0%
          2001Q1
          2001Q2
          2001Q3
          2001Q4
          2002Q1
          2002Q2
          2002Q3
          2002Q4
          2003Q1
          2003Q2
          2003Q3
          2003Q4
          2004Q1
          2004Q2
          2004Q3
          2004Q4
          2005Q1
          2005Q2
          2005Q3
          2005Q4
          2006Q1
          2006Q2
          2006Q3
          2006Q4
          2007Q1
          2007Q2
          2007Q3
          2007Q4
          2008Q1
          2008Q2
          2008Q3
          2008Q4
          2009Q1
          2009Q2
          2009Q3
          2009Q4
          2010Q1
          2010Q2
          2010Q3
          2010Q4



                                                                                                                                             2008R    2009R     2010R     2011F   2012F   2013F    2014F    2015F

                                                                                                                                                              GDP per capita         Real GDP growth
                 Source: Global Insight, Undersecretariat of Treasury
                                                                                                                                Source: Global Insight




                 Page 3                                                          Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
…with the youngest population in Europe
and favorable demographics…
Strong growth potential…                                                            ►    3rd largest country by population in Europe following Russia and Germany

    Population of European Countries (million)                                      ►    Largest youth population compared with the 27 EU countries
                                                                                    ►    Youngest in Europe with 43% of it is comprised of under the age of 25
 160     141                                                                        ►    The population between ages 0 and 44 is 55.5 million constitutes 74% of the total
 140                                                                         129         population
 120                                                                                ►    Labor productivity with an annual average growth of 6.1% between 2002 and 2008
 100              82
  80
                        74     65     62
                                                                                    ►    4th largest labor force compared to the 27 EU countries
                                           60
  60                                               46                               ►    One of the largest consumer markets in Europe with an increasing number of potential
                                                           38
  40                                                            21      16               customers
  20
                                                                                    ►    High level of productivity and highly skilled labor force
   0

                                                                                                                Contribution to GDP growth
                                                                                             15%                                                                              8,90%   10%
Source: Council of Europe                                                                              8,20%
                                                                                                                     6,90%                                                            8%
                                                                                             10%
               Population Distribution by Age                                                                                      4,70%                                              6%

                                                                                               5%                                                                                     4%
 30%
           26%
                                                                                                                                                                                      2%
 25%
                                                                                               0%                                                                                     0%
 20%                   17%          17%                                                                                                         0,70%
                                           14%                                                                                                                                        -2%
 15%                                                                                          -5%
                                                        11%
                                                                                                                                                                                      -4%
 10%                                                             8%          7%
                                                                                             -10%                                                           -4,70%                    -6%
  5%                                                                                                    2005          2006         2007          2008          2009           2010

  0%                                                                                                       Private Cons. and Inv      Gov. Cons. and Inv.        Net Export
           0-14        15-24    25-34      34-44        45-54   55-64        65+
                                                                                                           Stock Building             GDP Growth
       Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
                                                                                        Source: Global Insight, Turkish Statistical Institute


Page 4                                                           Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
…and improving macroeconomic stability…

Macroeconomic indicators are strong despite the global financial crisis…
                                                                                                           ►      The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (“CBRT”) maintained high
         Interest Rates of Turkish Government Bonds                                                               interest rates while the government followed a tight fiscal policy by
 16%      15,00%                                                                                                  achieving 5.5% primary surplus in order to decrease inflation to the
 14%                                                                                                              targeted levels in the past 6 years.
 12%                                                                                                       ►      Turkey has a potential of being a safe harbor in the post financial
 10%                                                                                                              turmoil; credit ratings improved during global financial crisis.
  8%                   6,50%     6,50%                    6,75%                                                         ►   3 Dec 2009, Fitch upgraded rating by two notches from BB- to BB+.
                                           5,75%                       6,00%
  6%                                                                              5,50%        5,50%
                                                                                                                        ►   8 Jan 2010, Moody’s upgraded rating from Ba3 to Ba2.
  4%
  2%                                                                                                                    ►   1 Feb 2010, JCR raised rating from BB- to BB.
  0%                                                                                                                    ►   19 Feb 2010, S&P upgraded rating from BB- to BB and revised
        2008A       2009A      2010A     2011F        2012F       2013F        2014F      2015F                             outlook from stable to positive
                                               Interest rate                                               ►      Very strong banking system and minimum level of distressed
        Source:Global Insight                                                                                     companies despite GDP decline in 2009

                  Consumer & Price Index (% change)                                                                         Banking sector, ROE and NPL ratios
                                                                                                                25,0%                           23,4%                          6,0%
15%               12,7%
                                                  11,1%                                                                                                           19,8%
                                                                                                                20,0%         17,7%              5,3%                          5,0%
                                       8,5%                    7,8%
10%    6,3%                                                                                                                                                                    4,0%
                  10,4%                                                   5,1%         5,2%       4,7%          15,0%
                                                               9,8%                                                            3,7%                               3,7%
       8,8%
                                                                                                          ROE




                                                                                                                                                                                      NPL
5%                                     8,6%                                                                                                                                    3,0%
                            6,3%                   6,5%                                                         10,0%
                            1,2%                                          4,7%         4,6%       4,5%                                                                         2,0%
0%
                                                                                                                5,0%                                                           1,0%
       2007A      2008A     2009A      2010A      2011F        2012F      2013F        2014F    2015F
                                                                                                                  -%                                                            -%
               Consumer Price Index(% change)                  Wholesale Price Index(% change)
                                                                                                                              2008              2009              2010

                                    A: Actual, F: Forecast                                                                                    ROE        NPL

        Source:Global Insight                                                                            Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency


Page 5                                                             Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
… where collaboration and cultural exchange
are developing very well
…and a great country to work in

                                                                                       ►   Ranked the 15th most attractive FDI destination for 2008-2010
                                     FDI inflows
                                                                                           (UNCTAD)
              25
                                                                                       ►   More than 21,000 companies with international capital
                                               19,3   19,9
              20
                                                             17,0
                                                                                       ►   Around US$ 57 billion of FDI inflows in the last 4 years
                                                                                15,9
              15
                                                                                       ►   “Guarantee of Transfers” and “International Arbitration” available
Billion US$




                                     10,0                                              ►   New R&D and Innovation Support Law dated February 2007,
              10                                                          7,8              increased productivity, reduced production costs, commercialized
                                                                    6,9
                                                                                           technological knowledge, developed pre-competition cooperation
              5                2,8
                         1,8
                   1,1                                                                 ►   Accession negotiations with the EU since 2005
              0
                                                                                       ►   Customs Union with the EU since 1996, and a total of 12 free
                                                                                           trade agreements (FTA).
                                                                                       ►   High demand for energy, with minimum natural resources
        Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury




Page 6                                                              Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Turkey - SWOT Analysis

                                Strengths                                                                 Opportunities

►   Largest youth population among 27 EU countries                            ►   Strong growth prospects, in nearly all sectors
►   Strong geopolitical position which enables the country to be a hub        ►   Large and growing consumer base
    between the Middle East and Europe
                                                                              ►   Despite the economic fragility in the world, many companies still
►   Promising GDP growth rates                                                    have strong balance sheets and are eager for foreign partnership
►   Diversity in industrial production
                                                                              ►   The government has pushed forward new pension and labor
►   Strong consumer base                                                          code reforms that should lower labor costs for businesses
►   Recent structural reforms, especially those aimed at improving            ►   Despite risks to the EU accession process, Turkey remains to be
    transparency and increasing capitalization within the banking system          an important convergence play for investors
►   Membership in a customs union with the EU, which makes it a very
                                                                              ►   The reform program is expected to increase the opportunities for
    attractive platform for export-oriented manufacturers
                                                                                  investment in privatized state firms
►   Transparent monetary policy which is geared towards stabilizing
    inflation

                              Weaknesses                                                                      Threats

►   Lack of sophisticated corporate sellers and buyers                        ►   Political priorities / concerns
►   Changing / volatile tax regulations; widespread tax evasion               ►   High degree of exports and dependency on world economic
                                                                                  climate
►   Bureaucracy
                                                                              ►   Relatively high value expectations of sellers
►   Lack of R&D, innovation and high technology in many sectors
                                                                              ►   A global economic slowdown will weigh on foreign investment
►   Limited coverage of sector data, especially in non-regulated sectors
                                                                                  and the export sector
►   Reliance on foreign direct investment inflows to support the balance of
                                                                              ►   Infrastructural issues (especially in relatively under developed
    payments highlights a strong dependence on key developed world
                                                                                  regions) and the ongoing transportation problems
    economies.
►   Differences in development levels of the geographical regions

Page 7                                        Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Overview of the Retail Sector in Turkey




Page 8   Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Sector Overview
                                Sector Overview                                                                   Overall Retail Sector – Sales Volume Growth

►   The retail market had been composed of traditional shops in Turkey until                                    400,0
                                                                                                                                                                   4.315    4.387    4.478      5.000
                                                                                                                                                 4.129   4.220
    1990’s. For example in the food sector, most Turkish consumers meet their                                   350,0                    3.977                                                  4.500
                                                                                                                         3.803
    daily shopping needs through a variety of smaller shops, visiting the bakkal                                                                                                                4.000
                                                                                                                300,0
    (small corner store, which is often family run) for packaged food items, the                                                                                                                3.500
                                                                                                                                 2.806
    kasap (butcher) for poultry and meat, the manav (greengrocer) for fresh fruit                               250,0                                                                           3.000




                                                                                         TL (billion)
    and vegetables, or the pazar -- a weekly outdoor market found in each                                       200,0                                                                           2.500




                                                                                                                                                                                                        TL
    neighborhood.                                                                                                                                                  325,2    334,2    344,8      2.000
                                                                                                                150,0                    289,4   304,0   314,4
                                                                                                                         269,7   273,5
►   After 1990, the opening of the supermarkets brought a new era in the retail                                                                                                                 1.500
                                                                                                                100,0
    market in Turkey and this became the start of modern retailing in Turkey.                                                                                                                   1.000
                                                                                                                 50,0                                                                           500
►   Currently the retail market in Turkey is a mix of traditional and modern retailing                            0,0                                                                           0
    and the market is similar to the EU market of the 1970s, with an approximately                                       2008    2009     2010   2011    2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
    56% share held by traditional small domestic retailers. In the EU countries, this
    percentage is around 15% and the market is mature and the market dynamics                             Retail Sales (TL billion)                              Retail Sales per capita (TL)
    are not expected to change significantly.                                             Source: Business Monitor International

►   However there is a large room to grow for modern retailing in Turkey in line with                                    Private Consumption vs. Population
    the trends in the market.
►   In parallel with the macroeconomic growth and stable economic conditions,                                   78,0                                                                            1.600
                                                                                                                                                                                     1.368
    retail sales experienced a strong growth between 1998 and 2008 with a CAGR                                  77,0                                                        1.239               1.400
    of 27.4%. Retailing saw positive market growth in 2010, as the sector returned                              76,0                                              1.117
                                                                                                                75,0                                     1.000                        77,0      1.200
    to its 2008 levels.




                                                                                         Population (million)
                                                                                                                74,0                             899                        76,2
                                                                                                                                         786                                                    1.000




                                                                                                                                                                                                        TL (billion)
►   The TL 304 billion retail sector size of 2011 is expected to reach approximately                            73,0                                               75,4
                                                                                                                        664      681                                                            800
                                                                                                                72,0                                     74,5
    US$ 345 billion by 2015. The sales volume growth of the retail sector is                                                                     73,6
    demonstrated in the figure on the right. Moreover, retail sales are projected to                            71,0                     72,8                                                   600
                                                                                                                70,0             71,8
    grow with a CAGR of 3.2% from TL 304 billion in 2011 to TL 344.8 in 2015.                                           70,9                                                                    400
                                                                                                                69,0
                                                                                                                                                                                                200
►   The projected CAGR for the private consumption in Turkey is 11.7%, which                                    68,0
    points out the potential in organized modern retailing in Turkey and the increase                           67,0                                                                            0
    in the household population is one of the major factors behind this growth                                          2008A 2009A      2010A 2011E     2012F    2013F    2014F     2015F
    projection, as demonstrated in the figure on the right.                                             Population (in million)                             Private Consumption (TL billion)
                                                                                          Source: Business Monitor International


Page 9                                            Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Sector Overview
                                  Sector Overview                                             Retail Sector Breakdown (Food vs. Non-Food), 2010

►   According to the Turkish Council of Shopping Centers & Retailers, the volume of
    the retail sector is approximately US$ 171 billion in Turkey and the organized retail
    market constitutes approximately 44% of the overall market. The total sales area
    and the employment figures are respectively 23 million sqm and 1.8 million                        41,3%
    employees in 2010 according to the data by the Turkish Council of Shopping
    Centers and Retailers. Moreover, the Council projects a market size of US$ 279
    billion by 2013.
                                                                                                                                                                 58,7%
►   The retail market in Turkey can be separated into five main sub categories, which
    are:
         ►   Food Retail
         ►   Home Retail
         ►   Apparel Retail                                                                                                Food Retail     Non-Food Retail
         ►   E-Commerce Retail                                                                Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers
         ►   Electronics Retail
►   The food retail sub category is the largest category in the sector and it constitutes          Breakdown of Non-Food Retail Sector, 2010
    58.7% of the market. The breakdown of the retail sector sales volume in 2010 is
    demonstrated in the figures on the right. The below figure illustrates the
    breakdown of the non-food retail sector into the four main sub categories. Home                                    10,8%
    retail is the largest sub category in non-food retail sector.
                                                                                                        13,9%
►   In the food sector, most Turkish consumers meet their daily shopping needs                                                                                 39,3%
    through a variety of smaller shops. However, mass grocery retail (“MGR”) outlets
    have become increasingly popular thanks to the quality and range of their
    products -- boosting demand for packaged foods and the convenience of one-stop
    shopping.
►   The economic growth, an expanding population, especially in urban areas, rising
    levels of disposable income, and the continued development of organized retail
    infrastructure, are the major factors for the expected growth in the retail industry in                        36,0%
    Turkey.
►   Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index has reached 90.99 at the end of 2010                      Home Retail     Apparel Retail      E-Commerce Retail   Electronics Retail
    in Turkey.                                                                                Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers


Page 10                                             Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Sector Overview
                         Major Trends in the Sector                                                        Consumer Spending per Capita

►   As with the EU countries, which saw organized retail grow from 51% to 85% of                 14.000                                                                12.948
    the market in two decades, there is clear scope for rapid Turkish expansion. In                                               2010 - 2014 CAGR: 16.7%
                                                                                                                                                              11.551
                                                                                                 12.000
    2006, there were just three hypermarkets and 17 supermarkets per 1 million of
                                                                                                                                                      9.888
    population in Turkey, against 15 hypermarkets and 150 supermarkets in EU                     10.000
    countries.                                                                                                                               8.188
                                                                                                  8.000           6.897              6.977
    Analysis of retail market share in countries before and after EU accession                            6.315




                                                                                           US$
►
                                                                                                                          5.883
    shows that traditional retailers lose almost half of their market share shortly               6.000
    after entry to the EU. However, with negotiations having only started in 2005,
    actual EU accession for Turkey is still a very long way off and is not expected               4.000
    until 2015 at the earliest.                                                                   2.000
►   The growing competition in the market is leading to an increase in brand
                                                                                                     0
    choice and improvement in brand quality, resulting in growing demand for                              2007A   2008A   2009A      2010A   2011E    2012E   2013E    2014E
    retail products. This in turn is attracting a large number of leading retail chains
                                                                                          Source: TURKSTAT, Business Monitor International
    to Turkey.
►   The consumer spending per capita has decreased by 14.7% in 2009 in Turkey
    as a result of the global financial turmoil and it increased again back to 2008
    levels in 2010. Furthermore, it is estimated that the consumer spending per
    capita is projected to increase with a CAGR of 16.7% during the time period
    between 2010 and 2014.
►   Market penetration is rising in parts of Istanbul and Ankara and these cities
    still offer major opportunities for retailers and developers. However there are
    even more opportunities in the untapped markets in the rest of Turkey.
►   Entertainment and leisure have become a crucial aspect of the new wave of
    retail developments. In addition to cinemas and restaurants, developers are
    being more adventurous and including entertainment and leisure aspects in
    the shopping malls.
►   Retail sales constitute 24.2% of total GDP in Turkey and the share of
    organized retail is 9 – 10% of the total GDP in 2011.



Page 11                                           Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Mergers & Acquisitions Activity (2008-2011)
Significant M&A activity has been observed in the retail sector in Turkey recently
►    The mergers & acquisitions (“M&A”) deals in the retail sector in Turkey in the period between January 1, 2008 and June 31, 2011 are
     demonstrated in the below figure. 34 deals have been closed in this period and the deal values of 15 deals have been disclosed with a total
     disclosed deal value of US$ 2.65 billion and an average deal value of US$ 176.6 million.
►    Furthermore, according to the survey results in the 2011 M&A Report of Ernst & Young, Turkish business world is optimistic regarding the
     future of the retail sector in terms of M&A activity in 2012 and approximately 11% of the participants believe that retail will be the most
     promising sector in 2012. The survey results are illustrated in the below figure.



    Number of Deals - Retail Sector vs. Turkey (2008 –2011)                                    Expected M&A Activity by Sectors in 2012
300                                                                                          23,7%
                                                                               264   25,0%
                                                            241
250
                                                                                     20,0%
                                                                                                     15,1%   14,0%
200                172                                                               15,0%                           12,9%
                                                                                                                             10,8%   9,7%
150                                                                                  10,0%                                                  8,6%
                                       115
100                                                                                   5,0%                                                         2,2%   2,2%   1,1%
           13                                                          12             0,0%
    50                          9                    7

     0
                2008                2009                 2010               2011

                         Retail Sector Deals   Total Deals in Turkey

 Source: Ernst & Young M&A Reports 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011                          Source: Ernst & Young M&A Report 2011




Page 12                                                   Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
SWOT Analysis
                               Strengths                                                              Opportunities

►   Attractive Demographics: population of 74 million with a 1.5% growth    ►   Organized retail sector is still under-penetrated despite the
    rate annually. Average household size of 3.9 people vs. EU average of       sector’s higher than market growth and constitutes 44% of the
    2.5                                                                         grocery retailing vs. 80% in EU
►   Strong GDP growth outlook resulting in an increase in purchasing        ►   Only 20% of cities of Turkey over 1 million population. Other
    power                                                                       cities are growing with the economic expansion which means a
►   Grocery consumption are relatively immune to economic downturns             huge potential for new organized grocery retail stores in the
                                                                                country
►   Compared to EU countries, a relatively low cost qualified workforce
    supports the expansion of the sector                                    ►   Increasing number of shopping malls
►   With their increasing purchasing power, organized retailers have a      ►   The government may support organized retailing expansion
    lowering effect on inflation
►   Strong domestic production in grocery and limited share of imported
    goods


                             Weaknesses                                                                   Threats

►   Fragmentated traditional retailers may attract customers during         ►   Although the organized retail sector is relatively immune to
    economic downturn with the ability to provide late payments and tax-        economic downturns, an unforeseen economic crisis may
    free shopping                                                               slowdown national players’ investment programs and hence new
                                                                                space additions
►   IT infrastructure in logistics is not developed and manual management
    affects the efficiency of the sector                                    ►   Politic and economic uncertainties in the eastern part of the
                                                                                country may limit growth prospects in this region
►   Price can vary from region to region and players can suffer from
    margin pressure                                                         ►   The draft retail law may bring additional bureaucratic layers to
                                                                                organized retailers’ new stores with a sales area higher than 400
►   Most customers still prefer to purchase unpackaged foods from
                                                                                sqm in addition to limits on working days as well as operating
    groceries and bazaars instead of organized retailers
                                                                                hours



Page 13                                      Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Shopping Malls
►     Turkey has the third highest number of shopping malls in Europe, after Spain and Russia.
►     The young population of Turkey (nearly 75 million) attracts the establishment of several department stores and shopping malls with large
      foreign investment. In addition, such shopping malls make the process of shopping easier for consumers as they get the opportunity to shop for
      lots of items under one roof.
►     Increasing competition in the market leads to an increase in brand choice and improvement in brand quality, which inevitably results in growing
      demand for the retail products. This in turn attracts a large number of leading retail chains to Turkey.
►     The current demand for convenience shopping keeps increasing and the number of shopping malls surges, especially in Istanbul and other
      large cities. Retailers are also investing in medium-sized cities by introducing smaller formats to improve market access
►     According to Council of Shopping Centers, there is still a big potential for shopping mall development in Turkey due to the fact that there are
      currently 49 cities which don’t have any shopping malls.
►     While İstanbul is ranked #1 with 102 shopping malls, it is followed by Ankara with 32 shopping malls and İzmir with 17 shopping malls.
►     The sector created employment for 350,000 people as of 2011. With the developments until 2015, it’s expected that this number would
      increase to 500,000 people.


                                Number of Shopping Malls                                                              Total Leasable Retail Area in the Shopping Malls

400
                                                                                                          344                                                                                                6.500
350                                                                                                                          7.000
                                                                                                    270                                                                                              5.700
300                                                                                           263                            6.000                          CAGR: 19.4%
                                                                                        236                                                                                                  4.900
                                               CAGR: 21.3%                                                                   5.000




                                                                                                                Thousands
250                                                                               210
200                                                                         166                                              4.000                                                  3.500
                                                                      133                                                                                                   2.500
150                                                             106                                                          3.000                                 2.100
                                                     81    93                                                                                          1.700 1.900
100
                                35   46   53    60                                                                           2.000   1.100 1.300 1.400
 50    10   12   14   18   25
                                                                                                                             1.000
  0                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                     2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                                                                                             Total Leasable Retail Area (in sqm, per year)
Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers                                                                   Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers


Page 14                                                   Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Retail Sector
Shopping Malls

                                                      Gross Leasable Area per 1,000 capita in Europe


 Netherlands
      Ireland
     Sweden
 Luxembourg
     Finland
         UK
       Spain
    Portugal
      France
        Italy
  Czech Rep.
      Poland
    Slovakia
    Germany
    Hungary
      Turkey
     Belgium
      Russia
     Bulgaria
     Greece

                0            50               100                150      200          250             300   350   400   450

     Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers




Page 15                                             Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Food Retail
Sub-Category Overview and Major Players
►   Turkey is the 5th largest country in the world in terms of spending on food. The Turkish food industry is enjoying continuous growth trends due to the young population
    of the country, high urbanization rates, and rising income levels. The food retail sub-category has also seen robust economic growth in the last years. The sales of
    large food retailers have risen and new hyper and supermarkets are continuing to be opened at an incredible rate. Moreover, the discount store concept has been
    developing rapidly in Turkey and the number of discount stores have increased rapidly in the recent years.
►   As the largest category in the Turkish retail sector, food retail had a market size of US$ 96 billion in 2010 and has grown with a CAGR of 6.3% in the last 5 years.
►   The food retail sub-category is classified into two major groups, organized and unorganized retailers. Organized retailers are mostly chain stores that have a corporate
    entity and are fully registered. Unorganized retailers, also called the traditional market, constitute smaller, single stores and bazaars. As mentioned before, the market
    is evolving in Turkey and the organized modern retailers are gaining more importance in the market.


                                                             Major Organized Retailers by Format

                                                                              Tesco
                          Migros           Bim           Carrefoursa           Kipa          Metro Group                  Şok      A101                 Kiler           Bizim Toptan
Hypermarket                 X                                 X                 X                X
Supermarket                 X                                 X                 X                                                                        X
Discount                    X               X                 X                                                           X         X
Cash&Carry                                                                                       X                                                                            X
Source: Analyst Reports

►   The hypermarket segment is dominated in Turkey mainly by international retail giants and                      Segment Breakdown of Food Retail Revenues
    there is more room for growth in the segment. The selling space per 1,000 inhabitants
    increased from 6 sqm in 2004 to 10 sqm in 2010. However, the penetration is much higher
                                                                                                                  100,0
    in developed countries at 80 sqm.
►   Among the four formats, supermarkets are expected to have the slowest growth rate in the                       80,0                                  18,4               17,8
                                                                                                                                     18,2
    following years since the supermarket segment is already mature in Turkey and                                           18,1
    supermarkets are small enough to benefit from higher return and penetration prospects.                         60,0




                                                                                                     TL billion
                                                                                                                                                         33,9               33,0
►   The discount format is relatively new in Turkey compared to its European peers. With                                             33,7
                                                                                                                   40,0     33,3
    establishment of BIM in 1995, the discount format started to evolve, and until today, the                                                            8,9                 9,9
    segment achieved an overall penetration of 11% within the grocery retail market in Turkey.                                        7,2
                                                                                                                   20,0     4,9
    In order to compete with the growth trend in the discount segment, major retailers are                                           22,8                25,1               27,6
                                                                                                                           19,0
    changing their strategies and going for concepts such as fast shopping, gourmet and                                     3,0       4,3                4,4                 5,0
                                                                                                                    0,0
    boutique stores.
                                                                                                                           2006      2007               2008                2009
►   The cash & carry segment is quite under-penetrated with organized cash & carry having a
    5% market share. The biggest players are Metro Group (German) and Bizim Toptan                     Hypermarkets Supermarkets   Discount Stores   Small Groceries   Specialist Stores
    (Turkish).                                                                                       Source: Analyst Reports


Page 16                                               Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Home Retail
Sub-Category Overview and Major Players
►   Home retail sub-category is the second largest category in the retail sector in Turkey with a market size of US$ 26.5 billion in 2010.
►   The growth in the Turkish home retail market accelerated in the beginning of the 1990s when international players such as Tefal penetrated and
    widened the product variety in the market which was formerly dominated by local manufacturers.
►   Altering the tastes of Turkish customers and forcing the existing local players to adapt to the new product range, international players also created an
    environment where new Turkish competitors emerged.
►   Entrance of discount retailers such as Bauhaus and Ikea and their respective growth implied the vast market potential for the household goods retail
    industry.
►   Today there are several domestic and international players in Turkey each differing from others in terms of their product range and retailing strategy.
►   Main players in the home retail market are
         ►   Home improvement product retailers: Koçtaş, Bauhaus, Praktiker, Ikea, Tekzen
         ►   White goods retailers: Arçelik, Vestel
         ►   Medium scale home retailer companies: Esse, Güral Porselen, Kütahya Porselen, Zara Home, Tepe Home, Mudo Concept, Paşabahçe,
             Boyner Evde, YKM, Karaca, Tefal, Evkur
         ►   Small scale home retailer companies: Bernardo, Jumbo, Monev, Tantitoni, English Home


                                                 Major Drivers of the Home Retail Market Growth

►   New Household Additions: New marriages, changes in the Turkish family structure and an increasing number of people living alone, such as students and
    single professionals, create a significant growth in the number of Turkish households. As of 2010, there are approximately 19 million households in Turkey
    and it is expected to have 2 million new additions within 3 years.
►   GDP per Capita and Consumer Spending: In line with the GDP growth, per capita consumer spending level of US$ 6,977 in 2010 is expected to reach US$
    12,948 by 2014. Retail expenses constitute 35% of the overall spending and the spending growth is expected to remain at its fast pace.
►   Gross Leasable Area in the Shopping Malls: Home retailers tend to locate their stores in shopping centers since the shopping centers have large
    catchment areas including the target consumer group of these retailers. Therefore, new shopping centers represent a potential to extend retail business into
    new markets.




Page 17                                          Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Apparel Retail
Sub-Category Overview and Major Players
►   Apparel sector reached a market size of US$ 24.3 billion in 2010, which constituted around 27% of non-food retail market in Turkey.
►   This ratio was 22% in 2005 and it is expected to be realize around 33% by 2014.
►   In Turkey, demand of apparel retail is forecasted an increase by 11% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with this growth Turkey can be the largest
    markets in Europe by the end of this period.
►   Top leading apparel and footwear retailers companies are:
         ►   LC Waikiki, Koton,
         ►   Zara, Network
         ►   Mavi Jeans
         ►   Sarar Giyim
         ►   Damat Tween
         ►   İpekyol
         ►   Vakko, Beymen
►   The number of outlets increased in mixed retailers considerably in 2010. Local companies such as Boyner and YKM increased the number of
    their outlets year-on-year. Expected growth value of sales for mixed retailers is around 18% by 2015.
►   Some of the mixed retailers are:
         ►   Boyner
         ►   YKM
         ►   H&M
         ►   C&A
►   Another highlight of the apparel retail area is the increasing demand for children apparels. 15% of Turkey’s population is comprised by the
    people under the age of 12 and such a young population attracts investors to make investments in children apparels, which managed to grow
    by 15% within 2011.




Page 18                                        Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
E-Commerce Retail
Sub-Category Overview and Major Players
►   In Turkey, there are numbers of e-commerce sites that offer services as sale of second-hand goods, real estate, ticket purchases and food delivery.
    Fashion, media, jewellery and auto parts are other important product categories for the leading E-Commerce players.
►   Sahibinden.com was the leading e-commerce player in Turkey as of September 2011, followed by Gitti Gidiyor. Multi-category retailer
    Hepsiburada.com is ranked third, as the company distributed more than 330,000 products in more than 36 categories in 2011.
►   Private shopping site Trendyol is also within the Top 10 of the ranking. The website already had 2 million registered users in the beginning of 2011.
►   E-Commerce sales in Turkey increased by 52% over the first nine months of 2011 compared with the same period the year before, to stand at TL16.9
    billion (more than €8.5 billion).
►   The total amount spent on e-commerce sites reached US$ 9.4 billion in 2010 (which was US$ 5.8 billion in 2009) through 96.1 million (67.3 million in
    2009) transactions.
►   The sector with the biggest online growth is services sector with a total turnover of TL 2.3 billion which is a 69% increase compared with the year
    before.
►   As of 2011, some of the important M&A transactions:
         ►   A major multimedia player, Naspers, has penetrated the Turkish internet market by acquiring approximately 70% of the shares of Markafoni
         ►   Amazon has acquired a minority stake in Ciceksepeti, which operates an online flower and gifts store in Turkey
         ►   Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Tiger Global invested between US$ 25 million and US$ 30 million in private shopping site Trendyol
         ►   Swedish investment company Quants Financial Services recently bought a majority stake in Grupfoni.




Page 19                                          Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Electronics Retail
Sub-Category Overview and Major Players
►   In 2010, the size of the consumer electronics market in Turkey             Distribution of Electronics Retail by Segments, 2010
    realized US$ 7.3 billion and is expected to increase by more than
    52% to US$ 11.1 billion by the end of 2014. The distribution of
    consumer electronics by main product segments is presented in the                                  16,0%
    figure on the right.
►   The large global consumer electronics vendors prefer to set up local
    offices in Turkey due to relevant costs.
►   Electronic devices had US$ 8.71 billion demand at the end of 2011,                   22,0%
    and it is expected to have an increasing demand thanks to the                                                                             62,0%
    growing popularity of digital lifestyle devices such as LCD TV sets,
    notebook computers and digital cameras, as well as rising incomes
    and lower prices.
►   Digital camera penetration is expected to reach 80% by 2012 and PC                 Computer hardware related    Audio-visual equipment   Mobile phones
    penetration is projected to reach 33% by 2015 while mobile             Source: Business Monitor International
    subscriber penetration has reached 80%. In consumer electronics
    sector, the main market players are;
         ►   Teknosa
         ►   Bimeks
         ►   Media Markt
         ►   Electro World
         ►   Darty
         ►   Gold Computer
         ►   Vatan Computer




Page 20                                        Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
Ernst & Young                                           www.ey.com


© 2012 Ernst Young Kurumsal Finansman Danışmanlık AŞ   All Rights Reserved.




 Page 21                                 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey

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Overview of Turkey's Growing Business Environment and Retail Sector

  • 1. Overview of the Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey Demet Ozdemir Partner, Transaction Advisory Services February 2012
  • 2. Doing Business in Turkey Page 2 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 3. The business environment to invest in Turkey is quite favourable … Why Turkey is a good market to invest in… GDP (US$ billion) ► Situated at the junction of Europe and Asia, Turkey is an important crossroad between Europe, the Middle East and Asia, 1.600 1.456,3 facilitating easy access to 1.5 billion customers 1.400 1.282,1 1.200 1.081,5 ► 16th largest economy in the world with leading industries; energy, 1.000 885,4 telecommunications, agriculture, automotive, manufacturing, US$ bln 729,8 749,2 800 646,2 614,5 textiles, tourism, transportation and construction 482,4 528,2 600 392 400 ► Booming economy (US$ 305 billion to US$ 749.2 billion GDP 200 from 2003 to 2010) with sustainable economic growth. 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F GDP (US$ bln) F:Forecasted Source: Global Insight, Undersecretariat of Treasury GDP per capita and Real GDP growth GDP Growth Rate (between 2001-Q1 and 2010-Q4) 18.000 9,0% 13.734 14.000 9,0% 12.489 8,2% 11.263 6,0% 15% 10.241 10.054 10.443 9.773 10% 10.000 8.530 4,5% 4,9% 3,0% US$ 5% 3,6% 0% 6.000 0,0% 0,7% 1,3% -5% 2.000 -3,0% -10% Uninterrupted growth for 27 quarters -15% -2.000 -4,8% -6,0% 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2008R 2009R 2010R 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F GDP per capita Real GDP growth Source: Global Insight, Undersecretariat of Treasury Source: Global Insight Page 3 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 4. …with the youngest population in Europe and favorable demographics… Strong growth potential… ► 3rd largest country by population in Europe following Russia and Germany Population of European Countries (million) ► Largest youth population compared with the 27 EU countries ► Youngest in Europe with 43% of it is comprised of under the age of 25 160 141 ► The population between ages 0 and 44 is 55.5 million constitutes 74% of the total 140 129 population 120 ► Labor productivity with an annual average growth of 6.1% between 2002 and 2008 100 82 80 74 65 62 ► 4th largest labor force compared to the 27 EU countries 60 60 46 ► One of the largest consumer markets in Europe with an increasing number of potential 38 40 21 16 customers 20 ► High level of productivity and highly skilled labor force 0 Contribution to GDP growth 15% 8,90% 10% Source: Council of Europe 8,20% 6,90% 8% 10% Population Distribution by Age 4,70% 6% 5% 4% 30% 26% 2% 25% 0% 0% 20% 17% 17% 0,70% 14% -2% 15% -5% 11% -4% 10% 8% 7% -10% -4,70% -6% 5% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0% Private Cons. and Inv Gov. Cons. and Inv. Net Export 0-14 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Stock Building GDP Growth Source: Turkish Statistical Institute Source: Global Insight, Turkish Statistical Institute Page 4 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 5. …and improving macroeconomic stability… Macroeconomic indicators are strong despite the global financial crisis… ► The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (“CBRT”) maintained high Interest Rates of Turkish Government Bonds interest rates while the government followed a tight fiscal policy by 16% 15,00% achieving 5.5% primary surplus in order to decrease inflation to the 14% targeted levels in the past 6 years. 12% ► Turkey has a potential of being a safe harbor in the post financial 10% turmoil; credit ratings improved during global financial crisis. 8% 6,50% 6,50% 6,75% ► 3 Dec 2009, Fitch upgraded rating by two notches from BB- to BB+. 5,75% 6,00% 6% 5,50% 5,50% ► 8 Jan 2010, Moody’s upgraded rating from Ba3 to Ba2. 4% 2% ► 1 Feb 2010, JCR raised rating from BB- to BB. 0% ► 19 Feb 2010, S&P upgraded rating from BB- to BB and revised 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F outlook from stable to positive Interest rate ► Very strong banking system and minimum level of distressed Source:Global Insight companies despite GDP decline in 2009 Consumer & Price Index (% change) Banking sector, ROE and NPL ratios 25,0% 23,4% 6,0% 15% 12,7% 11,1% 19,8% 20,0% 17,7% 5,3% 5,0% 8,5% 7,8% 10% 6,3% 4,0% 10,4% 5,1% 5,2% 4,7% 15,0% 9,8% 3,7% 3,7% 8,8% ROE NPL 5% 8,6% 3,0% 6,3% 6,5% 10,0% 1,2% 4,7% 4,6% 4,5% 2,0% 0% 5,0% 1,0% 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F -% -% Consumer Price Index(% change) Wholesale Price Index(% change) 2008 2009 2010 A: Actual, F: Forecast ROE NPL Source:Global Insight Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency Page 5 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 6. … where collaboration and cultural exchange are developing very well …and a great country to work in ► Ranked the 15th most attractive FDI destination for 2008-2010 FDI inflows (UNCTAD) 25 ► More than 21,000 companies with international capital 19,3 19,9 20 17,0 ► Around US$ 57 billion of FDI inflows in the last 4 years 15,9 15 ► “Guarantee of Transfers” and “International Arbitration” available Billion US$ 10,0 ► New R&D and Innovation Support Law dated February 2007, 10 7,8 increased productivity, reduced production costs, commercialized 6,9 technological knowledge, developed pre-competition cooperation 5 2,8 1,8 1,1 ► Accession negotiations with the EU since 2005 0 ► Customs Union with the EU since 1996, and a total of 12 free trade agreements (FTA). ► High demand for energy, with minimum natural resources Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury Page 6 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 7. Turkey - SWOT Analysis Strengths Opportunities ► Largest youth population among 27 EU countries ► Strong growth prospects, in nearly all sectors ► Strong geopolitical position which enables the country to be a hub ► Large and growing consumer base between the Middle East and Europe ► Despite the economic fragility in the world, many companies still ► Promising GDP growth rates have strong balance sheets and are eager for foreign partnership ► Diversity in industrial production ► The government has pushed forward new pension and labor ► Strong consumer base code reforms that should lower labor costs for businesses ► Recent structural reforms, especially those aimed at improving ► Despite risks to the EU accession process, Turkey remains to be transparency and increasing capitalization within the banking system an important convergence play for investors ► Membership in a customs union with the EU, which makes it a very ► The reform program is expected to increase the opportunities for attractive platform for export-oriented manufacturers investment in privatized state firms ► Transparent monetary policy which is geared towards stabilizing inflation Weaknesses Threats ► Lack of sophisticated corporate sellers and buyers ► Political priorities / concerns ► Changing / volatile tax regulations; widespread tax evasion ► High degree of exports and dependency on world economic climate ► Bureaucracy ► Relatively high value expectations of sellers ► Lack of R&D, innovation and high technology in many sectors ► A global economic slowdown will weigh on foreign investment ► Limited coverage of sector data, especially in non-regulated sectors and the export sector ► Reliance on foreign direct investment inflows to support the balance of ► Infrastructural issues (especially in relatively under developed payments highlights a strong dependence on key developed world regions) and the ongoing transportation problems economies. ► Differences in development levels of the geographical regions Page 7 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 8. Overview of the Retail Sector in Turkey Page 8 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 9. Retail Sector Sector Overview Sector Overview Overall Retail Sector – Sales Volume Growth ► The retail market had been composed of traditional shops in Turkey until 400,0 4.315 4.387 4.478 5.000 4.129 4.220 1990’s. For example in the food sector, most Turkish consumers meet their 350,0 3.977 4.500 3.803 daily shopping needs through a variety of smaller shops, visiting the bakkal 4.000 300,0 (small corner store, which is often family run) for packaged food items, the 3.500 2.806 kasap (butcher) for poultry and meat, the manav (greengrocer) for fresh fruit 250,0 3.000 TL (billion) and vegetables, or the pazar -- a weekly outdoor market found in each 200,0 2.500 TL neighborhood. 325,2 334,2 344,8 2.000 150,0 289,4 304,0 314,4 269,7 273,5 ► After 1990, the opening of the supermarkets brought a new era in the retail 1.500 100,0 market in Turkey and this became the start of modern retailing in Turkey. 1.000 50,0 500 ► Currently the retail market in Turkey is a mix of traditional and modern retailing 0,0 0 and the market is similar to the EU market of the 1970s, with an approximately 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 56% share held by traditional small domestic retailers. In the EU countries, this percentage is around 15% and the market is mature and the market dynamics Retail Sales (TL billion) Retail Sales per capita (TL) are not expected to change significantly. Source: Business Monitor International ► However there is a large room to grow for modern retailing in Turkey in line with Private Consumption vs. Population the trends in the market. ► In parallel with the macroeconomic growth and stable economic conditions, 78,0 1.600 1.368 retail sales experienced a strong growth between 1998 and 2008 with a CAGR 77,0 1.239 1.400 of 27.4%. Retailing saw positive market growth in 2010, as the sector returned 76,0 1.117 75,0 1.000 77,0 1.200 to its 2008 levels. Population (million) 74,0 899 76,2 786 1.000 TL (billion) ► The TL 304 billion retail sector size of 2011 is expected to reach approximately 73,0 75,4 664 681 800 72,0 74,5 US$ 345 billion by 2015. The sales volume growth of the retail sector is 73,6 demonstrated in the figure on the right. Moreover, retail sales are projected to 71,0 72,8 600 70,0 71,8 grow with a CAGR of 3.2% from TL 304 billion in 2011 to TL 344.8 in 2015. 70,9 400 69,0 200 ► The projected CAGR for the private consumption in Turkey is 11.7%, which 68,0 points out the potential in organized modern retailing in Turkey and the increase 67,0 0 in the household population is one of the major factors behind this growth 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F projection, as demonstrated in the figure on the right. Population (in million) Private Consumption (TL billion) Source: Business Monitor International Page 9 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 10. Retail Sector Sector Overview Sector Overview Retail Sector Breakdown (Food vs. Non-Food), 2010 ► According to the Turkish Council of Shopping Centers & Retailers, the volume of the retail sector is approximately US$ 171 billion in Turkey and the organized retail market constitutes approximately 44% of the overall market. The total sales area and the employment figures are respectively 23 million sqm and 1.8 million 41,3% employees in 2010 according to the data by the Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers. Moreover, the Council projects a market size of US$ 279 billion by 2013. 58,7% ► The retail market in Turkey can be separated into five main sub categories, which are: ► Food Retail ► Home Retail ► Apparel Retail Food Retail Non-Food Retail ► E-Commerce Retail Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers ► Electronics Retail ► The food retail sub category is the largest category in the sector and it constitutes Breakdown of Non-Food Retail Sector, 2010 58.7% of the market. The breakdown of the retail sector sales volume in 2010 is demonstrated in the figures on the right. The below figure illustrates the breakdown of the non-food retail sector into the four main sub categories. Home 10,8% retail is the largest sub category in non-food retail sector. 13,9% ► In the food sector, most Turkish consumers meet their daily shopping needs 39,3% through a variety of smaller shops. However, mass grocery retail (“MGR”) outlets have become increasingly popular thanks to the quality and range of their products -- boosting demand for packaged foods and the convenience of one-stop shopping. ► The economic growth, an expanding population, especially in urban areas, rising levels of disposable income, and the continued development of organized retail infrastructure, are the major factors for the expected growth in the retail industry in 36,0% Turkey. ► Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index has reached 90.99 at the end of 2010 Home Retail Apparel Retail E-Commerce Retail Electronics Retail in Turkey. Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers Page 10 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 11. Retail Sector Sector Overview Major Trends in the Sector Consumer Spending per Capita ► As with the EU countries, which saw organized retail grow from 51% to 85% of 14.000 12.948 the market in two decades, there is clear scope for rapid Turkish expansion. In 2010 - 2014 CAGR: 16.7% 11.551 12.000 2006, there were just three hypermarkets and 17 supermarkets per 1 million of 9.888 population in Turkey, against 15 hypermarkets and 150 supermarkets in EU 10.000 countries. 8.188 8.000 6.897 6.977 Analysis of retail market share in countries before and after EU accession 6.315 US$ ► 5.883 shows that traditional retailers lose almost half of their market share shortly 6.000 after entry to the EU. However, with negotiations having only started in 2005, actual EU accession for Turkey is still a very long way off and is not expected 4.000 until 2015 at the earliest. 2.000 ► The growing competition in the market is leading to an increase in brand 0 choice and improvement in brand quality, resulting in growing demand for 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E retail products. This in turn is attracting a large number of leading retail chains Source: TURKSTAT, Business Monitor International to Turkey. ► The consumer spending per capita has decreased by 14.7% in 2009 in Turkey as a result of the global financial turmoil and it increased again back to 2008 levels in 2010. Furthermore, it is estimated that the consumer spending per capita is projected to increase with a CAGR of 16.7% during the time period between 2010 and 2014. ► Market penetration is rising in parts of Istanbul and Ankara and these cities still offer major opportunities for retailers and developers. However there are even more opportunities in the untapped markets in the rest of Turkey. ► Entertainment and leisure have become a crucial aspect of the new wave of retail developments. In addition to cinemas and restaurants, developers are being more adventurous and including entertainment and leisure aspects in the shopping malls. ► Retail sales constitute 24.2% of total GDP in Turkey and the share of organized retail is 9 – 10% of the total GDP in 2011. Page 11 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 12. Retail Sector Mergers & Acquisitions Activity (2008-2011) Significant M&A activity has been observed in the retail sector in Turkey recently ► The mergers & acquisitions (“M&A”) deals in the retail sector in Turkey in the period between January 1, 2008 and June 31, 2011 are demonstrated in the below figure. 34 deals have been closed in this period and the deal values of 15 deals have been disclosed with a total disclosed deal value of US$ 2.65 billion and an average deal value of US$ 176.6 million. ► Furthermore, according to the survey results in the 2011 M&A Report of Ernst & Young, Turkish business world is optimistic regarding the future of the retail sector in terms of M&A activity in 2012 and approximately 11% of the participants believe that retail will be the most promising sector in 2012. The survey results are illustrated in the below figure. Number of Deals - Retail Sector vs. Turkey (2008 –2011) Expected M&A Activity by Sectors in 2012 300 23,7% 264 25,0% 241 250 20,0% 15,1% 14,0% 200 172 15,0% 12,9% 10,8% 9,7% 150 10,0% 8,6% 115 100 5,0% 2,2% 2,2% 1,1% 13 12 0,0% 50 9 7 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Retail Sector Deals Total Deals in Turkey Source: Ernst & Young M&A Reports 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Source: Ernst & Young M&A Report 2011 Page 12 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 13. Retail Sector SWOT Analysis Strengths Opportunities ► Attractive Demographics: population of 74 million with a 1.5% growth ► Organized retail sector is still under-penetrated despite the rate annually. Average household size of 3.9 people vs. EU average of sector’s higher than market growth and constitutes 44% of the 2.5 grocery retailing vs. 80% in EU ► Strong GDP growth outlook resulting in an increase in purchasing ► Only 20% of cities of Turkey over 1 million population. Other power cities are growing with the economic expansion which means a ► Grocery consumption are relatively immune to economic downturns huge potential for new organized grocery retail stores in the country ► Compared to EU countries, a relatively low cost qualified workforce supports the expansion of the sector ► Increasing number of shopping malls ► With their increasing purchasing power, organized retailers have a ► The government may support organized retailing expansion lowering effect on inflation ► Strong domestic production in grocery and limited share of imported goods Weaknesses Threats ► Fragmentated traditional retailers may attract customers during ► Although the organized retail sector is relatively immune to economic downturn with the ability to provide late payments and tax- economic downturns, an unforeseen economic crisis may free shopping slowdown national players’ investment programs and hence new space additions ► IT infrastructure in logistics is not developed and manual management affects the efficiency of the sector ► Politic and economic uncertainties in the eastern part of the country may limit growth prospects in this region ► Price can vary from region to region and players can suffer from margin pressure ► The draft retail law may bring additional bureaucratic layers to organized retailers’ new stores with a sales area higher than 400 ► Most customers still prefer to purchase unpackaged foods from sqm in addition to limits on working days as well as operating groceries and bazaars instead of organized retailers hours Page 13 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 14. Retail Sector Shopping Malls ► Turkey has the third highest number of shopping malls in Europe, after Spain and Russia. ► The young population of Turkey (nearly 75 million) attracts the establishment of several department stores and shopping malls with large foreign investment. In addition, such shopping malls make the process of shopping easier for consumers as they get the opportunity to shop for lots of items under one roof. ► Increasing competition in the market leads to an increase in brand choice and improvement in brand quality, which inevitably results in growing demand for the retail products. This in turn attracts a large number of leading retail chains to Turkey. ► The current demand for convenience shopping keeps increasing and the number of shopping malls surges, especially in Istanbul and other large cities. Retailers are also investing in medium-sized cities by introducing smaller formats to improve market access ► According to Council of Shopping Centers, there is still a big potential for shopping mall development in Turkey due to the fact that there are currently 49 cities which don’t have any shopping malls. ► While İstanbul is ranked #1 with 102 shopping malls, it is followed by Ankara with 32 shopping malls and İzmir with 17 shopping malls. ► The sector created employment for 350,000 people as of 2011. With the developments until 2015, it’s expected that this number would increase to 500,000 people. Number of Shopping Malls Total Leasable Retail Area in the Shopping Malls 400 344 6.500 350 7.000 270 5.700 300 263 6.000 CAGR: 19.4% 236 4.900 CAGR: 21.3% 5.000 Thousands 250 210 200 166 4.000 3.500 133 2.500 150 106 3.000 2.100 81 93 1.700 1.900 100 35 46 53 60 2.000 1.100 1.300 1.400 50 10 12 14 18 25 1.000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Leasable Retail Area (in sqm, per year) Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers Page 14 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 15. Retail Sector Shopping Malls Gross Leasable Area per 1,000 capita in Europe Netherlands Ireland Sweden Luxembourg Finland UK Spain Portugal France Italy Czech Rep. Poland Slovakia Germany Hungary Turkey Belgium Russia Bulgaria Greece 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Source: Turkish Council of Shopping Centers and Retailers Page 15 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 16. Food Retail Sub-Category Overview and Major Players ► Turkey is the 5th largest country in the world in terms of spending on food. The Turkish food industry is enjoying continuous growth trends due to the young population of the country, high urbanization rates, and rising income levels. The food retail sub-category has also seen robust economic growth in the last years. The sales of large food retailers have risen and new hyper and supermarkets are continuing to be opened at an incredible rate. Moreover, the discount store concept has been developing rapidly in Turkey and the number of discount stores have increased rapidly in the recent years. ► As the largest category in the Turkish retail sector, food retail had a market size of US$ 96 billion in 2010 and has grown with a CAGR of 6.3% in the last 5 years. ► The food retail sub-category is classified into two major groups, organized and unorganized retailers. Organized retailers are mostly chain stores that have a corporate entity and are fully registered. Unorganized retailers, also called the traditional market, constitute smaller, single stores and bazaars. As mentioned before, the market is evolving in Turkey and the organized modern retailers are gaining more importance in the market. Major Organized Retailers by Format Tesco Migros Bim Carrefoursa Kipa Metro Group Şok A101 Kiler Bizim Toptan Hypermarket X X X X Supermarket X X X X Discount X X X X X Cash&Carry X X Source: Analyst Reports ► The hypermarket segment is dominated in Turkey mainly by international retail giants and Segment Breakdown of Food Retail Revenues there is more room for growth in the segment. The selling space per 1,000 inhabitants increased from 6 sqm in 2004 to 10 sqm in 2010. However, the penetration is much higher 100,0 in developed countries at 80 sqm. ► Among the four formats, supermarkets are expected to have the slowest growth rate in the 80,0 18,4 17,8 18,2 following years since the supermarket segment is already mature in Turkey and 18,1 supermarkets are small enough to benefit from higher return and penetration prospects. 60,0 TL billion 33,9 33,0 ► The discount format is relatively new in Turkey compared to its European peers. With 33,7 40,0 33,3 establishment of BIM in 1995, the discount format started to evolve, and until today, the 8,9 9,9 segment achieved an overall penetration of 11% within the grocery retail market in Turkey. 7,2 20,0 4,9 In order to compete with the growth trend in the discount segment, major retailers are 22,8 25,1 27,6 19,0 changing their strategies and going for concepts such as fast shopping, gourmet and 3,0 4,3 4,4 5,0 0,0 boutique stores. 2006 2007 2008 2009 ► The cash & carry segment is quite under-penetrated with organized cash & carry having a 5% market share. The biggest players are Metro Group (German) and Bizim Toptan Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discount Stores Small Groceries Specialist Stores (Turkish). Source: Analyst Reports Page 16 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 17. Home Retail Sub-Category Overview and Major Players ► Home retail sub-category is the second largest category in the retail sector in Turkey with a market size of US$ 26.5 billion in 2010. ► The growth in the Turkish home retail market accelerated in the beginning of the 1990s when international players such as Tefal penetrated and widened the product variety in the market which was formerly dominated by local manufacturers. ► Altering the tastes of Turkish customers and forcing the existing local players to adapt to the new product range, international players also created an environment where new Turkish competitors emerged. ► Entrance of discount retailers such as Bauhaus and Ikea and their respective growth implied the vast market potential for the household goods retail industry. ► Today there are several domestic and international players in Turkey each differing from others in terms of their product range and retailing strategy. ► Main players in the home retail market are ► Home improvement product retailers: Koçtaş, Bauhaus, Praktiker, Ikea, Tekzen ► White goods retailers: Arçelik, Vestel ► Medium scale home retailer companies: Esse, Güral Porselen, Kütahya Porselen, Zara Home, Tepe Home, Mudo Concept, Paşabahçe, Boyner Evde, YKM, Karaca, Tefal, Evkur ► Small scale home retailer companies: Bernardo, Jumbo, Monev, Tantitoni, English Home Major Drivers of the Home Retail Market Growth ► New Household Additions: New marriages, changes in the Turkish family structure and an increasing number of people living alone, such as students and single professionals, create a significant growth in the number of Turkish households. As of 2010, there are approximately 19 million households in Turkey and it is expected to have 2 million new additions within 3 years. ► GDP per Capita and Consumer Spending: In line with the GDP growth, per capita consumer spending level of US$ 6,977 in 2010 is expected to reach US$ 12,948 by 2014. Retail expenses constitute 35% of the overall spending and the spending growth is expected to remain at its fast pace. ► Gross Leasable Area in the Shopping Malls: Home retailers tend to locate their stores in shopping centers since the shopping centers have large catchment areas including the target consumer group of these retailers. Therefore, new shopping centers represent a potential to extend retail business into new markets. Page 17 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 18. Apparel Retail Sub-Category Overview and Major Players ► Apparel sector reached a market size of US$ 24.3 billion in 2010, which constituted around 27% of non-food retail market in Turkey. ► This ratio was 22% in 2005 and it is expected to be realize around 33% by 2014. ► In Turkey, demand of apparel retail is forecasted an increase by 11% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with this growth Turkey can be the largest markets in Europe by the end of this period. ► Top leading apparel and footwear retailers companies are: ► LC Waikiki, Koton, ► Zara, Network ► Mavi Jeans ► Sarar Giyim ► Damat Tween ► İpekyol ► Vakko, Beymen ► The number of outlets increased in mixed retailers considerably in 2010. Local companies such as Boyner and YKM increased the number of their outlets year-on-year. Expected growth value of sales for mixed retailers is around 18% by 2015. ► Some of the mixed retailers are: ► Boyner ► YKM ► H&M ► C&A ► Another highlight of the apparel retail area is the increasing demand for children apparels. 15% of Turkey’s population is comprised by the people under the age of 12 and such a young population attracts investors to make investments in children apparels, which managed to grow by 15% within 2011. Page 18 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 19. E-Commerce Retail Sub-Category Overview and Major Players ► In Turkey, there are numbers of e-commerce sites that offer services as sale of second-hand goods, real estate, ticket purchases and food delivery. Fashion, media, jewellery and auto parts are other important product categories for the leading E-Commerce players. ► Sahibinden.com was the leading e-commerce player in Turkey as of September 2011, followed by Gitti Gidiyor. Multi-category retailer Hepsiburada.com is ranked third, as the company distributed more than 330,000 products in more than 36 categories in 2011. ► Private shopping site Trendyol is also within the Top 10 of the ranking. The website already had 2 million registered users in the beginning of 2011. ► E-Commerce sales in Turkey increased by 52% over the first nine months of 2011 compared with the same period the year before, to stand at TL16.9 billion (more than €8.5 billion). ► The total amount spent on e-commerce sites reached US$ 9.4 billion in 2010 (which was US$ 5.8 billion in 2009) through 96.1 million (67.3 million in 2009) transactions. ► The sector with the biggest online growth is services sector with a total turnover of TL 2.3 billion which is a 69% increase compared with the year before. ► As of 2011, some of the important M&A transactions: ► A major multimedia player, Naspers, has penetrated the Turkish internet market by acquiring approximately 70% of the shares of Markafoni ► Amazon has acquired a minority stake in Ciceksepeti, which operates an online flower and gifts store in Turkey ► Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Tiger Global invested between US$ 25 million and US$ 30 million in private shopping site Trendyol ► Swedish investment company Quants Financial Services recently bought a majority stake in Grupfoni. Page 19 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
  • 20. Electronics Retail Sub-Category Overview and Major Players ► In 2010, the size of the consumer electronics market in Turkey Distribution of Electronics Retail by Segments, 2010 realized US$ 7.3 billion and is expected to increase by more than 52% to US$ 11.1 billion by the end of 2014. The distribution of consumer electronics by main product segments is presented in the 16,0% figure on the right. ► The large global consumer electronics vendors prefer to set up local offices in Turkey due to relevant costs. ► Electronic devices had US$ 8.71 billion demand at the end of 2011, 22,0% and it is expected to have an increasing demand thanks to the 62,0% growing popularity of digital lifestyle devices such as LCD TV sets, notebook computers and digital cameras, as well as rising incomes and lower prices. ► Digital camera penetration is expected to reach 80% by 2012 and PC Computer hardware related Audio-visual equipment Mobile phones penetration is projected to reach 33% by 2015 while mobile Source: Business Monitor International subscriber penetration has reached 80%. In consumer electronics sector, the main market players are; ► Teknosa ► Bimeks ► Media Markt ► Electro World ► Darty ► Gold Computer ► Vatan Computer Page 20 Turkish Business Environment & Retail Sector in Turkey
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