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Bottom-up Approach
THE RISE & RISE OF
E-COMMERCE -
SECTOR OVERVIEW
SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Table of Contents
 E-commerce sector in India
 Evolution
 Types
 Holistic
 Graphs
 Key Drivers of Growth
 Global Scenario
 SWOT of the sector
 Info Edge
 Just Dial
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Evolution of E-commerce
Business
Launch of
internet in India
dialup in 6 cities
Launch of
online job
portals
Launch of online
B2B portals
Launch of online
matrimonial sites
Muted activity in
the industry due
to the dotcom
bubble bust in
2000
Launch of
online
agents
(OTA)
Launch of first
group buying
website in
India
New trend of
use
networking
sites as a
marketing toll
begins or the
advent of
social
commerce
Entry of a number
of players in e-
tailing segment
Aug 1995
1996
1997 2000 2005
2006
2007
2010
1st Wave (1996-2000)
2nd Wave (2006-
present)
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Types of E-commerce
transaction
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
A Holistic View
THEN
Internet user base close to 5.5m in 2006
Average time spent online by an Indian
consumer per month 2.6 hrs in 2006
No 3G spectrum auction in India till
2010
Number of credit card and debit card in
India 4.2m and 0.3m respectively in
1999
Number of broadband subscribers as
low as 51,000 in 2001
Number of users transacting online 3
million in 2007
NOW
Internet user base close increased to
300m
Average time spent online by an Indian
consumer per month 21 hrs in 2015
3G subscribes to reached 118m in 2014
and 303.4m by 2020
Number of credit card and debit card in
India 73.7m and 350m respectively in
2014
Number of broadband subscribers
reached 100m by 2014 and more then
300m by 2020
Number of users transacting online 38
million in 2014ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Graphs reveal all………
Break-up of Indian E-Commerce
Industry
Online Buyers as % of internet users
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Graphs reveal all………
E-commerce Industry in early stages
in India…….
E-Commerce Industry as % of
country’s GDP (2013)
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Key Drivers of growth in Indian E-Commerce
Sector
Increased Internet
Usage
• Number of Internet users to crossed USA
• Rural areas showing 58% CAGR growth rate for internet
adoption
Favorable
Demographics
300m middle
class
• Rapidly growing middle class
• Rising levels of urbanization
Increased Mobile
penetration
• Mobile users have higher frequency of access
• Urban users contributing lion’s share of Indian mobile
users
• Mobile internet users have grown by 2.7x in the last 18
months ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Key Drivers of growth in Indian E-Commerce
Sector
Better
accessibility to
Internet
• Due to new technological development users have faster access
to internet
• Data rates have come down internet usage is affordable
Hardware
accessibility
• Cost of PC’s, laptop and other hardware devices have become
reasonable
• Single largest contributor to the success of E-Commerce is affordable
android devices
Safe Payment
Gateway
• Safe payment gateways give confidence and assurance to internet
shoppers
• There are several payment options to choose from
• Cash on delivery is an instant hit with the Indian online shoppers
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
SWOT Analysis of the Sector
Strengths
• Less Capital Intensive
• Venture capital willing to
fund, less debt burden of
these co’s
• Different models of
business is already tried and
refined in the west
Opportunities
• Job creation
• Scope for overall infrastructure
development
• Tier I – Tier II cities are
untouched
• Head room for growth due to
favorable demographics
• Growth directly related to
spending power which is
increasing
Weakness
• No entry barriers
• Fierce competition
• Margins are thin
• Allied sector not very well
developed
• Bargaining power of firms is less
• Overdependence on technology
• These co’s trade at high multiples
Threats
•Change in government rules,
currently no specific rules for this
space
• Fragmented too many players
• Threat of substitute / new entrants
• Scope for misuse of confidential
information
• Threat of takeover is highITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
INFO EDGE
Company Profile
• The Company was incorporated on May 1, 1995 under the Companies Act,
•1956 as Info Edge (India) Private Limited. and converted into a Public Limited on
•April 27, 2006.
• Info Edge is largely known for its recruitment portal Naukri.com in India. It was
•the first listed internet-based player on Indian bourses.
Executive Summary
Sanjeev Bikhchandani, Founder and Executive Vice Chairman –
Founded the company in 1995 and previously worked with Lintas and
GSK.
Hitesh Oberoi, Managing Director and CEO – Joined the company in
2000 and has worked with HLL previously.
Ambarish Raghuvanshi, CFO. Joined the company in 2000 and has
worked with Bank of America and HSBC previously.
Particulars Data
CMP 800.50
Mkt Cap 5348.72 CR
52 Week High –
Low
1015 – 523.70
Face Value Rs. 10
Traded Volume
(shs)
91,111
Ticker BSE
532777
Ticker NSE
NAUKRI
51%29%
11%
0.27%5% 4%
Shareholders as on 31 March 2014
Promoters
FII
MF & UTI
Corporate Bodies
Indian Public
Individuals
Others
Promoters continue to hold 51%
Major shareholder is HDFC MF which
holds close to 7%.
Other prominent shareholders include
funds like T.Rowe Price, SBI MF &
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Info Edge
Recruitment
(Naukri)
Real Estate
(99acres)
Matrimony
(jeevansaathi)
Education
(shiksha)
Business
Verticals
INFO EDGE
74%
7%
15%
4%
Revenue Mix
Recruitment
Matrimony
Real Estate
Education and
others
Hit 52 week high
on 24 Nov 2014
on the hopes of
higher valuation
of 99 Acres ( 24
Nov 2014)
Less than expected full
year results ( 8 May
2014)
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
INFO EDGE
Strengths
•First mover
advantage in various
categories
•Recruitments,
contributing ~77% of
company revenues,
is ~50% EBITDA
margin business
•No debt and cash
generating business
Weaknesses
• Low barriers to
entry
• Failure to adapt to
newer technological
shifts
• Competition
• Over dependence
on one segment
Opportunities
• Rising internet
penetration
• Improving
macroeconomic
conditions
• Strong growth in
Mobile platform.
Threats
• Technological
obsolence
• Competing
products from new
or existing players
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
INFO EDGE
PAT to Sales
Debt to Equity
Ratio
Cost Break-
up
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1370
1672
1968
516
577
662
442
626
761
Other expense
Advertising and
promotion cost
Employee benefit
expense
2012 2013 2014
3771
4372
5059
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2013 2014
Sales
PAT
1442
1498
1668
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
2012 2013 2014
EBITDA
EBITDA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014
546
1092 1092
2.8 4.8 4.4
Equity (INR in
Million)
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Company Profile
Just Dial is a “local” search engine company in India, incorporated in 1993
as
A&M communications by Mr. V.S.S Mani. It started offering local search
services in
1996 under the Just Dial brand. Just Dial's search service is available to
users
across multiple platforms, such as the internet, mobile Internet, over the
telephone
(voice) and text (SMS)
Just Dial is the largest online classifieds player in India with 15million listings
and 45million reviews. The company IPOed in June’13; it was listed at
Rs.530
Management and Directors’ background
Mr. V.S.S. Mani, Managing Director – Founder and an industry veteran with over 25
yrs of experience in media and local search services.
Mr. V. Krishnan, Executive Director– Co-Founder and has over 20 yrs of experience in
strategic planning and execution.
Mr. Sandipan Chattopadhyay, CTO. Over 16yrs of experience in technology services
and been
with Just Dial since 2009.
Mr. Ramkumar Krishnamachari, CFO. Over 22yrs of experience in finance and
accounting
Particulars Data
CMP 1322.05
Mkt Cap (crs) 3390.73
52 Week High
– Low
1894 - 982
Face Value Rs. 10
Traded
Volume (shs)
348032
Ticker BSE
535648
Ticker NSE
JUSTDIAL
Justdial
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
32.89%
27.38%
4.71%
35.02%
Shareholding pattern
Promoters
FII
DII
Non
institutions/Pub
c
Top Shareholders:
• Tiger Global
• SAIF II Mauritius
• Sequoia capital
Justdial
Board nod for
hiking FII
holding limit (5
Aug 2014)
The sharp selloff in Just Dial has come
amid fears of redemption by pre-IPO
investors, whose lock-in period expires on
June 5, 2014. This could put a large
number of shares in the open market (6
May 2014).
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Strengths
• First mover
advantage in the
category.
• Profitable business
model,
• No debt and cash
generating
business.
• Access through
multiple platforms.
Weaknesses
• Low barriers to
entry
• Potential failure to
adapt to newer
technological
shifts
Opportunities
• Strong growth
and increased
penetration rate
in the Mobile
platform are the
biggest
opportunities for
the company.
Threats
• Technological
obsolence.
• Competing
product from
new or existing
players
Justdial
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
PAT to Sales
Debt to Equity
Ratio
Price to Earning
(PE)
Justdial
2621
3628
4613
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2012 2013 2014
Sales
PAT
672
1008
1422
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2012 2013 2014
EBITDA
EBITDA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014
531
695 702
0 0 0
Equity (INR in Million)
Debt (INR in Million)
158
148
87
2012 2013 2014ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Key Ratios
Particulars INFO EDGE Justdial
EBIDTA Margin 33.0 30.8
PE 74.4 78.5
EV/EBIDTA 48.4 61.9
ROE 18.4 25
EV/Sales 16 19.1
EPS (RS) 11.77 17.43
Debt/Equity 0.41 0
Recommendatio
n
HOLD ACCUMULATE
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Summarizatio
n
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
Thank
You
Rinki Haldar – 14
Theresa Tumkur - 100
Shital Pawar - 105
Prashant Mirgule - 53
Karunakar Niwate – 52
Shahezad Sakharkar
Group Members
ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34

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E-Commerce Industry Analysis

  • 1. Bottom-up Approach THE RISE & RISE OF E-COMMERCE - SECTOR OVERVIEW SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 2. Table of Contents  E-commerce sector in India  Evolution  Types  Holistic  Graphs  Key Drivers of Growth  Global Scenario  SWOT of the sector  Info Edge  Just Dial ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 3. Evolution of E-commerce Business Launch of internet in India dialup in 6 cities Launch of online job portals Launch of online B2B portals Launch of online matrimonial sites Muted activity in the industry due to the dotcom bubble bust in 2000 Launch of online agents (OTA) Launch of first group buying website in India New trend of use networking sites as a marketing toll begins or the advent of social commerce Entry of a number of players in e- tailing segment Aug 1995 1996 1997 2000 2005 2006 2007 2010 1st Wave (1996-2000) 2nd Wave (2006- present) ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 4. Types of E-commerce transaction ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 5. A Holistic View THEN Internet user base close to 5.5m in 2006 Average time spent online by an Indian consumer per month 2.6 hrs in 2006 No 3G spectrum auction in India till 2010 Number of credit card and debit card in India 4.2m and 0.3m respectively in 1999 Number of broadband subscribers as low as 51,000 in 2001 Number of users transacting online 3 million in 2007 NOW Internet user base close increased to 300m Average time spent online by an Indian consumer per month 21 hrs in 2015 3G subscribes to reached 118m in 2014 and 303.4m by 2020 Number of credit card and debit card in India 73.7m and 350m respectively in 2014 Number of broadband subscribers reached 100m by 2014 and more then 300m by 2020 Number of users transacting online 38 million in 2014ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 6. Graphs reveal all……… Break-up of Indian E-Commerce Industry Online Buyers as % of internet users ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 7. Graphs reveal all……… E-commerce Industry in early stages in India……. E-Commerce Industry as % of country’s GDP (2013) ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 8. Key Drivers of growth in Indian E-Commerce Sector Increased Internet Usage • Number of Internet users to crossed USA • Rural areas showing 58% CAGR growth rate for internet adoption Favorable Demographics 300m middle class • Rapidly growing middle class • Rising levels of urbanization Increased Mobile penetration • Mobile users have higher frequency of access • Urban users contributing lion’s share of Indian mobile users • Mobile internet users have grown by 2.7x in the last 18 months ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 9. Key Drivers of growth in Indian E-Commerce Sector Better accessibility to Internet • Due to new technological development users have faster access to internet • Data rates have come down internet usage is affordable Hardware accessibility • Cost of PC’s, laptop and other hardware devices have become reasonable • Single largest contributor to the success of E-Commerce is affordable android devices Safe Payment Gateway • Safe payment gateways give confidence and assurance to internet shoppers • There are several payment options to choose from • Cash on delivery is an instant hit with the Indian online shoppers ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 10. SWOT Analysis of the Sector Strengths • Less Capital Intensive • Venture capital willing to fund, less debt burden of these co’s • Different models of business is already tried and refined in the west Opportunities • Job creation • Scope for overall infrastructure development • Tier I – Tier II cities are untouched • Head room for growth due to favorable demographics • Growth directly related to spending power which is increasing Weakness • No entry barriers • Fierce competition • Margins are thin • Allied sector not very well developed • Bargaining power of firms is less • Overdependence on technology • These co’s trade at high multiples Threats •Change in government rules, currently no specific rules for this space • Fragmented too many players • Threat of substitute / new entrants • Scope for misuse of confidential information • Threat of takeover is highITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 11. INFO EDGE Company Profile • The Company was incorporated on May 1, 1995 under the Companies Act, •1956 as Info Edge (India) Private Limited. and converted into a Public Limited on •April 27, 2006. • Info Edge is largely known for its recruitment portal Naukri.com in India. It was •the first listed internet-based player on Indian bourses. Executive Summary Sanjeev Bikhchandani, Founder and Executive Vice Chairman – Founded the company in 1995 and previously worked with Lintas and GSK. Hitesh Oberoi, Managing Director and CEO – Joined the company in 2000 and has worked with HLL previously. Ambarish Raghuvanshi, CFO. Joined the company in 2000 and has worked with Bank of America and HSBC previously. Particulars Data CMP 800.50 Mkt Cap 5348.72 CR 52 Week High – Low 1015 – 523.70 Face Value Rs. 10 Traded Volume (shs) 91,111 Ticker BSE 532777 Ticker NSE NAUKRI 51%29% 11% 0.27%5% 4% Shareholders as on 31 March 2014 Promoters FII MF & UTI Corporate Bodies Indian Public Individuals Others Promoters continue to hold 51% Major shareholder is HDFC MF which holds close to 7%. Other prominent shareholders include funds like T.Rowe Price, SBI MF & ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 12. Info Edge Recruitment (Naukri) Real Estate (99acres) Matrimony (jeevansaathi) Education (shiksha) Business Verticals INFO EDGE 74% 7% 15% 4% Revenue Mix Recruitment Matrimony Real Estate Education and others Hit 52 week high on 24 Nov 2014 on the hopes of higher valuation of 99 Acres ( 24 Nov 2014) Less than expected full year results ( 8 May 2014) ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 13. INFO EDGE Strengths •First mover advantage in various categories •Recruitments, contributing ~77% of company revenues, is ~50% EBITDA margin business •No debt and cash generating business Weaknesses • Low barriers to entry • Failure to adapt to newer technological shifts • Competition • Over dependence on one segment Opportunities • Rising internet penetration • Improving macroeconomic conditions • Strong growth in Mobile platform. Threats • Technological obsolence • Competing products from new or existing players ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 14. INFO EDGE PAT to Sales Debt to Equity Ratio Cost Break- up 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1370 1672 1968 516 577 662 442 626 761 Other expense Advertising and promotion cost Employee benefit expense 2012 2013 2014 3771 4372 5059 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2012 2013 2014 Sales PAT 1442 1498 1668 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 2012 2013 2014 EBITDA EBITDA 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2012 2013 2014 546 1092 1092 2.8 4.8 4.4 Equity (INR in Million) ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 15. Company Profile Just Dial is a “local” search engine company in India, incorporated in 1993 as A&M communications by Mr. V.S.S Mani. It started offering local search services in 1996 under the Just Dial brand. Just Dial's search service is available to users across multiple platforms, such as the internet, mobile Internet, over the telephone (voice) and text (SMS) Just Dial is the largest online classifieds player in India with 15million listings and 45million reviews. The company IPOed in June’13; it was listed at Rs.530 Management and Directors’ background Mr. V.S.S. Mani, Managing Director – Founder and an industry veteran with over 25 yrs of experience in media and local search services. Mr. V. Krishnan, Executive Director– Co-Founder and has over 20 yrs of experience in strategic planning and execution. Mr. Sandipan Chattopadhyay, CTO. Over 16yrs of experience in technology services and been with Just Dial since 2009. Mr. Ramkumar Krishnamachari, CFO. Over 22yrs of experience in finance and accounting Particulars Data CMP 1322.05 Mkt Cap (crs) 3390.73 52 Week High – Low 1894 - 982 Face Value Rs. 10 Traded Volume (shs) 348032 Ticker BSE 535648 Ticker NSE JUSTDIAL Justdial ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 16. 32.89% 27.38% 4.71% 35.02% Shareholding pattern Promoters FII DII Non institutions/Pub c Top Shareholders: • Tiger Global • SAIF II Mauritius • Sequoia capital Justdial Board nod for hiking FII holding limit (5 Aug 2014) The sharp selloff in Just Dial has come amid fears of redemption by pre-IPO investors, whose lock-in period expires on June 5, 2014. This could put a large number of shares in the open market (6 May 2014). ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 17. Strengths • First mover advantage in the category. • Profitable business model, • No debt and cash generating business. • Access through multiple platforms. Weaknesses • Low barriers to entry • Potential failure to adapt to newer technological shifts Opportunities • Strong growth and increased penetration rate in the Mobile platform are the biggest opportunities for the company. Threats • Technological obsolence. • Competing product from new or existing players Justdial ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 18. PAT to Sales Debt to Equity Ratio Price to Earning (PE) Justdial 2621 3628 4613 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2012 2013 2014 Sales PAT 672 1008 1422 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2012 2013 2014 EBITDA EBITDA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2012 2013 2014 531 695 702 0 0 0 Equity (INR in Million) Debt (INR in Million) 158 148 87 2012 2013 2014ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 19. Key Ratios Particulars INFO EDGE Justdial EBIDTA Margin 33.0 30.8 PE 74.4 78.5 EV/EBIDTA 48.4 61.9 ROE 18.4 25 EV/Sales 16 19.1 EPS (RS) 11.77 17.43 Debt/Equity 0.41 0 Recommendatio n HOLD ACCUMULATE ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 20. Summarizatio n ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34
  • 21. Thank You Rinki Haldar – 14 Theresa Tumkur - 100 Shital Pawar - 105 Prashant Mirgule - 53 Karunakar Niwate – 52 Shahezad Sakharkar Group Members ITM - EMBA (Finance) - Batch 34