75. mitongroup.com
This presentation is for investment professionals only and has been prepared for the Dynamic Planner Training Academies. Not for onward distribution. No
other persons should rely on any information contained in this document.
11th September 2019
MITON MULTI ASSET TEAM
Navigating a noisy market
David Jane
Anthony Rayner
Dynamic Planner Training Academies, Global Economic Update
76. 76MFP19/369
RISKS – Miton Multi Asset Range
• The performance information presented in this presentation relates to the past. Past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future returns.
• The value of investments will fluctuate which will cause fund prices to fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the original amount invested.
• Changes in interest rates will affect the value of, and the interest earned from bonds held by the Fund.
When interest rates rise, the capital value of the Fund is likely to fall and vice versa.
• Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future performance.
78. 78MFP19/369
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug 2016 Jul 2017 Jun 2018 May 2019
Purchasing Managers surveys are close to, or below 50
US PMI German PMI UK PMI
Global growth slowdown: soft or hard?
Source: Bloomberg, 31/08/2016 – 31/07/2019.
79. 79MFP19/369
Consumer price inflation is far from threatening
So, easy monetary policy focusing on extending the economic cycle
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
%
US CPI UK CPI EU CPI
Source: Bloomberg, 31/01/2015 – 30/06/2019 for US and UK CPI
and 31/01/2015 - 31/07/2019 for EU CPI.
80. 80MFP19/369
Markets signalling a recession
But markets are manipulated
Source: Bloomberg, 22/08/2014 to 04/09/2019.
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Aug 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Aug 2019
%
USGG10YR Index - USGG2YR Index
US yield curve
81. 81MFP19/369
Is wages growth spiking?
Central banks will struggle to keep all plates spinning
Source: Bloomberg, 29/07/2014 to 28/05/2019 for UK wages growth, 31/07/2014 to
31/07/2019 for US wages growth and 28/08/2014 to 28/05/2019 for German wages growth.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019
%
US Wages Growth UK Wages Growth German Wages Growth
82. 82MFP19/369
Rise in inequality coincided with easier monetary policy
Distribution of wealth in the US since 1917
And this is being expressed beyond economics
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman – 2015, (date range 1917 – 2012.)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1917 1924 1931 1938 1945 1952 1959 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008
Bottom 90% Top 0.1%
84. 84MFP19/369
Is it a never ending cycle?
Growth
slowing
Rise in
populism
Rising asset
prices
Increase in
QE
What could break this cycle and what does it mean for markets?
87. 87MFP19/369
QE is distorting asset prices
Source: Bloomberg, 08/08/2018 to 09/08/2019.
Asset class behaviour is never static
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Aug 2018 Nov 2018 Feb 2019 May 2019 Aug 2019
Rebasedto100
Austrian 100 yr government bond S&P 500 Index US Treasury 30 yr
Equities or developed market government bond?
?
?
88. 88MFP19/369
Macro Summary
Observations Implementation
US economy remains relatively robust, CPI outlook benign Increased exposure to US quality growth
More dovish central banks Long dated US/UK government bonds, and EM bonds
Limited visibility as to degree of global slowdown
Utilities, health care and consumer staples where price momentum is
positive
UK economic landscape still unclear Very limited exposure to UK domestic equity
Uncertain policy/growth outlook argues for portfolio flexibility
Reduce corporate bond exposure (increases liquidity and reduces credit
risk)
Global growth slowing, Central banks more dovish
89. 89MFP19/369
Global growth slowing and political risk elevated
New policy action needed, and likely
Such uncertainty underlines importance of being active
Remain liquid
Summary
90. 90MFP19/369
MFP19/369.
This presentation has been prepared for the Dynamic Planner Training Academies. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information
contained in this document.
Source of fund performance data: FE, as at 31/07/2019 unless otherwise stated, Sterling Class B shares, net income reinvested, mid to mid basis for the LF funds, bid to bid for
the MI fund. Source for other data: Maitland Institutional Fund Services/Miton/Bloomberg, as at 31/07/2019 unless otherwise stated.
The views expressed are those of the fund manager at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. They are not necessarily the views of Miton and do not
constitute investment advice. Any mention of a specific stock is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Miton has used all reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the communication, however some information and statistical data has been obtained
from external sources. Whilst Miton believes these sources to be reliable, Miton cannot guarantee the reliability, completeness or accuracy of the content or provide a warrantee.
This financial promotion is issued by Miton, a trading name of Miton Asset Management Limited the Investment Manager of the Fund which is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in England No. 1949322 with its registered office at Paternoster House, 65 St Paul's Churchyard, London, EC4M 8AB.
Important Information
119. mitongroup.com
This presentation is for investment professionals only and has been prepared for the Dynamic Planner Training Academies. Not for onward
distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained in this document.
11th September 2019
MITON MULTI ASSET TEAM
With so much market noise, stick to the facts
David Jane
Anthony Rayner
Dynamic Planner Training Academies, Product Presentation
120. 120MFP19/370
RISKS – Miton Multi Asset Range
• The performance information presented in this presentation relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future returns.
• The value of investments will fluctuate which will cause fund prices to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back
the original amount invested.
• For funds investing globally, currency exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative impact on the value of
your investment.
• Changes in interest rates will affect the value of, and the interest earned from bonds held by the Fund. When interest
rates rise, the capital value of the Fund is likely to fall and vice versa.
• The Fund does not use derivatives extensively, although it may use them in an attempt to reduce risk, reduce costs and
to generate additional income. Investing in derivatives carries the risk of reduced liquidity, substantial loss and increased
volatility in adverse market conditions. Derivatives may expose the Fund to credit risks of counterparties, who may not
meet payment obligations. The use of derivatives may result in the fund being leveraged (where economic exposure and
thus the potential for loss by the fund exceeds the amount it has invested) and in these market conditions the effect of
leverage will magnify losses.
• For MI Miton Cautious Monthly Income only fees will be deducted from capital which will increase the amount of income
available for distribution; however this will erode capital and may constrain capital growth.
• Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future performance.
121. 121MFP19/370
Why Miton Multi Asset?
Pragmatic
Multi Asset
Investing
Outcome
driven
Competitive
costs
Risk-rated
solutions
Active asset
allocation
Directly
invested
122. 122MFP19/370
Being genuinely active matters
Thematic diversifiers
Dominant macro and geopolitical forces
With so much market noise, stick to the facts
123. 123MFP19/370
One day is never the same as the next
Why be genuinely active?
Pragmatism is crucial
Asset class behaviour is never static
But our risk and return objectives are fixed
Volatility
Correlation
Liquidity
124. 124MFP19/370
Source: Bloomberg, 09/06/2011 to 31/07/2019.
MI Miton Cautious Monthly Income Fund: Highest, lowest and current exposures %
“Genuinely active” means pragmatism and flexibility
Equitie
s
Bonds Other
Liquidity is key
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Exposures%
Lowest Highest Current
125. 125MFP19/370
Volatility
Volatility needs a context
Things to think about:
• Volatilities always change
• Upside volatility is positive
• Consider the sources of the
volatility
126. 126MFP19/370
Conventional measures of risk: correlation
Volatility and correlation don’t tell the whole story
Price
Time
Price
Time
Things to think about:
• Correlations always change
• Can be useful in highlighting
unintended risks
• Can be useful in identifying areas
of concentrated risk
127. 127MFP19/370
Conventional measures of risk: liquidity
How easy is it to get in and out?
Things to think about:
• It can stop you taking action
• It can distort other risk metrics
• Illiquidity is a fact of life in
certain assets
128. 128MFP19/370
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug 2016 Jul 2017 Jun 2018 May 2019
Purchasing Managers surveys are close to, or below 50
US PMI German PMI UK PMI
Recap - Global growth slowdown: soft or hard?
Source: Bloomberg, 31/08/2016 – 31/07/2019.
129. 129MFP19/370
Recap - Consumer price inflation is far from threatening
So, easy monetary policy focusing on extending the economic cycle
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
%
US CPI UK CPI EU CPI
Source: Bloomberg, 31/01/2015 – 30/06/2019 for US and UK CPI
and 31/01/2015 - 31/07/2019 for EU CPI.
130. 130MFP19/370
Recap - Macro Summary
Observations Implementation
US economy remains relatively robust, CPI outlook benign Increased exposure to US quality growth
More dovish central banks Long dated US/UK government bonds, and EM bonds
Limited visibility as to degree of global slowdown
Utilities, health care and consumer staples where price momentum is
positive
UK economic landscape still unclear Very limited exposure to UK domestic equity
Uncertain policy/growth outlook argues for portfolio flexibility
Reduce corporate bond exposure (increases liquidity and reduces credit
risk)
Global growth slowing, Central banks more dovish
But it’s not all about the macro
131. 131MFP19/370
Thematic views
Theme Exposure
Technological change
Robotics
Renewable energy
Cybersecurity
Digital revolution
Demographic change
Ageing population (healthcare technology)
Emerging consumer (India)
Feeding the world (agriculture)
Retirement savings
Structural forces that are largely independent of the economic cycle
132. 132MFP19/370
Macro and thematic idea generation
Theme: renewable energy
Source: Bloomberg, 29/01/2010 to 08/08/2019.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USD/barrel
USD/watt
Solar is competitive
Average silicon solar module spot price USD/watt (LHS) Brent crude oil USD/barrel (RHS)
133. 133MFP19/370
Macro and thematic idea generation
Theme: digital revolution
Source: Statista, February 2019: Selected region only includes countries listed in the Digital Market
Outlook.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
%
Penetration Rate
Mobile POS Payments Digital Commerce
134. 134MFP19/370
48.8%
38.9%
4.0%
6.2%
2.1%
Asset class breakdown
But let’s remember what we’re trying to do
Commodities – Gold and
Silver
Property – Global
basket of REITs LF Miton
Cautious Multi
Asset Fund
Cash
Equity - Quality growth
i. Digital revolution
ii. Renewable energy
Bonds
i. Long duration DM
government bonds
ii. Good quality corporate
bonds
iii. EM government bonds
Equity - Cyclical
i. US
ii. India
iii. China
Equity - Non-cyclical
i. Infrastructure
ii. Emerging consumer
Bonds
Equity
Propert
y
Commoditie
s
by rationale
Source: Bloomberg, as at 31/07/2019.
135. 135MFP19/370
4.2% yield*
Estimated returns and past performance are not a guide to future returns.
Source: FE Analytics, as at 31/07/2019. Ratings are not a recommendation.
1 Estimated long term return per annum ranges are produced by Miton.
2 Tenure dates: MI Miton Cautious Monthly Income Fund – 09/06/2011; LF Miton Cautious Multi Asset & LF Miton Defensive Multi Asset Funds – 09/06/2014.
3 RSMR Fund Rating and Defaqto Risk Ratings as at July 2019. Distribution Technology and the Dynamic Planner® Fund Rating as at 31/07/2019. Defaqto is a financial information
business.
4 FE Risk Scores define risk as a measure of volatility relative to the FTSE 100 Index, which has a risk rating of 100, and rebased to sterling. Instruments more volatile than the FTSE 100
have a score above 100 and vice versa to give an indication of relative risk, as at 02/08/2019.
*The Historic Yield reflects distributions declared over the past twelve months as a percentage of the mid-market price as at 31/07/2019. It does not include any preliminary charge and
investors may be subject to tax on their distributions.
The ongoing charges figures are estimates of the charges as at 1st January 2019 for the LF Miton Cautious Multi Asset Fund, LF Miton Defensive Multi Asset Fund and the LF Miton
Balanced Multi Asset Fund. The ongoing charges for these funds are taken from the income of the funds.
**This figure is as at 31st December 2018.
LF Miton Defensive
Multi Asset Fund
LF Miton Cautious
Multi Asset Fund
MI Miton Cautious
Monthly Income Fund
LF Miton Balanced
Multi Asset Fund
Estimated long term return per annum1 3 to 5% 4 to 6% 4 to 6% 5 to 7%
Annualised returns since tenure2 4.4% 6.0% 6.2% -2.0*
Fund ratings3
Risk Ratings
FE risk score4 35 60 61 86
Fund OCF 0.89% 0.81% 0.86%** 1.00%
Outcome driven range: Risk and Ratings
136. 136MFP19/370
Discrete performance
Source: FE Analytics as at 31/07/2019, Sterling Class B Accumulation shares/units, net income reinvested, mid to mid basis for the LF funds and bid to bid for the MI fund.
*The LF Miton Balanced Multi Asset Fund launched on 29/01/2018.
Fund
31/07/2018 to
31/07/2019
31/07/2017 to
31/07/2018
31/07/2016 to
31/07/2017
31/07/2015 to
31/07/2016
31/07/2014 to
31/07/2015
LF Miton Cautious Multi Asset Fund B Acc 1.9% 3.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.7%
MI Miton Cautious Monthly Income Fund B Acc 1.6% 3.1% 9.1% 8.2% 10.3%
LF Miton Defensive Multi Asset Fund B Acc 3.6% 1.2% 5.0% 6.2% 5.9%
LF Miton Balanced Multi Asset Fund B Acc* 1.9% n/a* n/a* n/a* n/a*
137. 137MFP19/370
With so much market noise, stick to the facts
It is important to remain flexible and pragmatic
Such uncertainty underlines importance of being active
In order to deliver outcome driven solutions
Summary
138. 138MFP19/370
MFP19/370.
This presentation has been prepared for the Dynamic Planner Training Academies. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information
contained in this document.
Source of fund performance data: FE, as at 31/07/2019 unless otherwise stated, Sterling Class B shares, net income reinvested, mid to mid basis for the LF funds, bid to bid for
the MI fund. Source for other data: Maitland Institutional Fund Services/Miton/Bloomberg, as at 31/07/2019 unless otherwise stated.
The views expressed are those of the fund manager at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. They are not necessarily the views of Miton and do not
constitute investment advice. Any mention of a specific stock is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Miton has used all reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the communication, however some information and statistical data has been obtained
from external sources. Whilst Miton believes these sources to be reliable, Miton cannot guarantee the reliability, completeness or accuracy of the content or provide a warrantee.
The Prospectus, KIID and application forms for the MI Miton Cautious Monthly Income Fund are available in English at: www.mitongroup.com. Maitland Institutional Services Ltd
is the Unit Trust Manager and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority no. 469627.
The Prospectus, KIID and application forms for the LF Miton Cautious Multi Asset Fund, LF Miton Defensive Multi Asset Fund and LF Miton Balanced Multi Asset Fund are
available in English from the Authorised Corporate Director of the funds, Link Fund Solutions Limited, at www.linkfundsolutions.co.uk; or from Miton, the Investment Manager of
the fund, at www.mitongroup.com.
This financial promotion is issued by Miton, a trading name of Miton Asset Management Limited the Investment Manager of the Fund which is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in England No. 1949322 with its registered office at Paternoster House, 65 St Paul's Churchyard, London, EC4M 8AB.
Important Information
Reference this is discussion the functionality of a full Dynamic Planner licence. Reference network/service provider may see things differently.
CLO on Student loans issued by the UK Gov
Elements is available at no extra cost to all licence holders who have a full Dynamic Planner licence. Depending on you access via a service or network provider you may not be able to access this functionality?