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©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Autumn 2019
Training Academies
London
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Housekeeping
Please switch off your mobile phones
Toilets
Fire drills
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Agenda
09:00 – 09:30 Breakfast, registration and networking
09:30 – 09:40 Introduction and welcome
09:40 – 10:10 Dynamic Planner Client Success (live demo) – Client Case Study, a ‘how to’ session
10:10 – 10:40 Dynamic Planner Asset & Risk Modelling – The Importance of Fund Risk Profiling
10:40 – 11:00 Refreshments and networking
11:00 – 11:20
Dynamic Planner Client Success (live demo) – Client Review Process Update, what is new
and what’s coming up in ‘Elements’
11:20 – 11:50 Partner session 1
11:50 – 12:20
Dynamic Planner Client Success – ‘Let me show you how’, common questions asked by our
clients
12:20 – 12:40 Partner session 2 - Global economic update
12:40 Lunch and networking – A chance to ask questions one-on-one
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Introduction & Welcome
Dynamic Planner
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Dynamic Planner Case Study:
Retirement Planning
Client Success Team
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Learning objectives
Client Profile
Name: Andrew Green
DOB: 10/02/1970 (50 next birthday)
Retirement Portfolio: Circa £450k in Scottish Widows Personal Pension Plan.
Objective: retire at 60 and enjoy flexibility under drawdown
Learning Objective
To be able to understand the required information and steps needed to create a
Retirement Wealth Plan for Andrew.
Demonstrate how to perform the following in order to meet Andrew’s objectives:
→ Pension Transfer
→ Rebalance portfolio
→ Annual review (Session 2)
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Begin in ‘Client record’
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Select the relationship type
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Always remember to name your case
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Case control centre
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Existing arrangements
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Investor experience
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‘15 Question Attitude to Risk’
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Consistency check
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‘Capacity for risk’
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‘Select a risk profile’
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Value at Risk
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Analysis
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Efficient frontier
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Recommendations
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Product actions
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Portfolio Suitability Hub
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Fund filters
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Search by Citicode, ISIN or MEXID
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Add to portfolio
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Align weightings accordingly
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Asset allocation – Recommendation
Click Finish Button
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Transferred to new policy
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Reporting
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Report preview
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Close down your case
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‘Product summary’
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Complete case and update client
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‘Client confirmation update’
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‘Complete case’
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Dynamic Planner –
The Importance of Fund Risk Profiling
Jim Henning, Head of Investment Services
Jason Dewar, Head of Fund Research
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Learning outcomes
→ Dynamic Planner Asset & Risk Model
Philosophy
→ Foundations of the Fund Risk
Profiling service
→ Centralised retirement process risk
mitigation strategies
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Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important?
→ Last 20 years have seen volatility for higher yield debt and equity fall considerably
→ Now similar levels to UK gilts
→ Interest rate normalisation and end of benign markets ahead?
Source Lipper – Rolling 3 year period volatility
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Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important?
Volatility compression continues, but spikey Interest rate normalisation ahead?
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Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important?
Global financial system going back on Methadone Bond yields at historic lows → duration risk higher
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
%Yield
Govt Bond 10 Year Yields
10YR UK Govt 10YR US Govt 10Y Bunds
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Dynamic Planner Fund Risk Profiling
→ Not based on past performance
→ Not based on sector asset ranges where divergence of outcomes can be wide
→ Not based on an arbitrary equity index relative scoring
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 2 3 4
Frequency
SRRI score
Mixed Investment 40-85% Shares
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
annualisedvolatility%
Annualised Volatility - last 5 years
Dynamic Planner Approach
→ Risk-adjusted benchmark ex-ante analysis → Client centric
Source Lipper/Dynamic Planner
max
max
min
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Dynamic Planner Asset Allocation philosophy
Ensures ongoing investment suitability by translating these characteristics
to the needs, objectives, situation and risk profile of the client
Equity Risk, Interest Rate Risk,
Currency Risk, Basis Risk
Holding Period Risk, Credit Risk,
Liquidity Risk, Concentration Risk,
Counterparty Risk
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Robust basis for Fund Risk Profiling – Quarterly oversight
Asset Allocation Comparison to Dynamic Planner
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0.0% 2.1% 4.2% 6.3% 8.4% 10.5% 12.6% 14.7% 16.8% 18.9% 21.0%
Expectedrealreturn(%pa)
Expected volatility (% pa)
DT profiles
Multi Asset Growth I
Multi Asset Growth II
Multi Asset Growth III
Multi Asset Growth IV
Forward looking analysis
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Robust basis for Fund Risk Profiling – Quarterly oversight
The historical volatility
‘journey’ relative to the
Dynamic Planner asset
allocation
Measured by tracking
error analysis
Helps to understand the level of
risk being taking
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Quarterly time series
Fund Volatility Risk Profile 4 Risk Profile 5 Risk Profile 6
Rear view ‘sense check’
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Dynamic Planner Fund Risk Profiling services
Risk Target ManagedRisk Profiled
→ Portfolios managed in line with
Dynamic Planner model assumptions  
→ Additional investment
consultancy from Dynamic Planner  
→ Dynamic Planner Risk Profile
may change  
627 FRP’d funds + 617 DFM portfolios 72 RTM funds + 38 DFM portfolios
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‘Cruise’
Active
‘Coronation St’
Sedentary
‘Care home’
Dependent
Day to day needs: Housing, Food, Heating
Regular discretionary:
Meals out
Leisure
One-off discretionary:
Holiday
Care costs
Needs in retirement
→ Average size of pension pot going into drawdown is £123,000*
→ Joseph Rowntree Foundation says a retired couple need a minimum of £13,500 pa
→ Yet clients will need to spend additional money at key life stages
Applying Fund Risk Profiling to a Centralised Retirement Proposition
£
Care costs
Drawdown from capital
inevitable for most
*Source FCA data bulletin – Sept 2018
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→ Rate variability
→ Capital &
income erosion
→ Increasing life
expectancy
→ Long-term care
funding
→ Income
variability
→ Capital
uncertainty
→ Fixed
withdrawals
→ Pound cost
ravaging Sequencing
Risk
Investment Risk
Inflation RiskLongevity Risk
Drawdown risk cycle – Four key segments
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Applying Fund Risk Profiling to a Centralised Retirement Proposition
The problem for natural yield investors
→ What level of risk am I taking to generate attractive income?
→ What is the expected level of risk?
→ How consistent is the income stream and capital variability?
→ Which peer group analysis is relevant?
The Solution
Income Focus Research Reports –
for Multi Asset funds
Premium / Select Research –
for Single Sector & Multi Asset funds
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Premium and Select Research ratings
Sector Peer group
Single Sector Funds IA sector classifications
Multi-Asset Fund DP’s 1-10 Risk Benchmarks
Risk Targeted Funds Relative to the RTM fund families
The rating considers a fund’s consistency (or fit) against the Dynamic
Planner asset and risk model and its efficiency in delivering returns.
A uniform scoring matrix and ranked within a relevant peer group.
5 years 3 years
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Sequence of returns – An actual example
Example: popular MA fund
Dynamic Planner Risk Profiled 4
Over seven years £10,000 made
total return of £16,348 (7.3% pa)
This risk has been unnoticed because of benign
markets (blue line)… but the risk hasn’t gone away
If: Fixed £ monthly withdrawal of
£41.67 pcm (so 5% of original pa)
The outcome can vary by 53%
depending on monthly sequence
of returns
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The impact of volatility drag
1%
5% 11%
25%
43%
67%
100%
150%
233%
-1% -5%
-10% -20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60% -70%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Gain required to fully recover from a loss
Gain to recover
Amplification of
sequencing risk
when more
volatility occurs.
Loss
So reduce volatility
to mitigate the
sequencing risk
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Sequence risk mitigation via our Fund Risk Profiling services
The problem for decumulation investors:
“There has been little in the way of product innovation in retirement income products
since pension freedoms came into force.” FCA Sector Views, January 2019
The solution: A new asset and risk model service to asset managers
New asset allocation framework
Measures and monitors the risk of a fall in value on a monthly basis
Ensures the risk to the client’s capital remains the same over the annual client review period
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How effective Risk Managed solutions can be identified and profiled
Monthly Risk Control Required to be RMD
Fixed
Income
Property
Cash
Absolute
Return
Risk of short-term correlation with equities
Over exposure to inflation risk
Liquidity risk and risk of gating
Short-term downside protection
Ideally Market Neutral Hedge funds
More negatively correlated to equities in short-term
Less inflation risk
Mandates and objectives focused on short-term risk
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A new standard for decumulation solutions
Badges will be applied to the RMD solutions
from asset managers when joining the service
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Fund research landing page will show where to find RMD funds
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Centralised Retirement Proposition – Challenges addressed
→ Rate variability
→ Capital &
income erosion
→ Increasing life
expectancy
→ Long-term care
→ Income
variability
→ Capital
uncertainty
→ Fixed
withdrawals
→ Pound cost
ravaging
Sequencing
Risk
Investment
Risk
Inflation Risk
Longevity
Risk
 Asset & Risk
Model
 Income Focus &
Research Reports
 Asset &
Risk Model
in real terms
 Cashflow
modelling
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Thank you
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Refreshments and networking
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Dynamic Planner Elements /
Client Review Process Update
Client Success Team
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What our clients say
“I don’t think there is anything else out there like this – it’s a new document for
a new process, which, because of MiFID II, advisers have to produce now,”
said Chris Miller, Miller Associates.
“Dynamic Planner is way ahead of the pack with this,”
said Nick Ryan, Yellow Bear Financial Consultancy.
“It’s the way forward for me as an independent adviser,”
said Dmitry Morgan, Morgan Financial. “It puts me in the same position as
large national firms, in terms of their very slick presentation and will definitely
save me time.”
“Elements produces an impressive report, which demonstrates to your clients
that as a firm you are professional and you know what you’re doing,”
said Gary King, GK Financial Solutions.
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How to access Elements
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New Elements service
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Arrangements
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Risk
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Selection
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Objectives
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Analysis
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‘Past performance’ and benchmarks
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Forecast
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Charges
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Outcomes
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Investment Progress Review report
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Report
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Dynamic Planner Roadmap
Sept 2019 Oct / Nov / Dec 2019 Jan / Feb / Mar 2020 Apr / May / June 2020
Novia integration Cashflow trial
Suitability trial
RMD funds available in
software
Cashflow launch
Suitability launch
Cashflow
Suitability
Save The Date!
2020 Dynamic Planner Annual Conference
Manchester 28 Jan 2020
London 5 Feb 2020
September 2019
For investment professionals only
Maria Municchi, Fund Manager
Building a sustainable multi-asset solution for clients
76
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Main risks associated with this fund
The value and income from the fund's assets will go down as well as up. This will cause the value of your investment to fall as well as rise. There is no guarantee that the
fund will achieve its objective and you may get back less than you originally invested.
The fund is exposed to different currencies. Derivatives are used to minimise, but may not always eliminate, the impact of movements in currency exchange rates.
The fund may use derivatives to profit from an expected rise or fall in the value of an asset. Should the asset's value vary in an unexpected way, the fund may lose as
much as or more than the amount invested.
Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates, inflation and credit ratings. It is possible that bond issuers will not pay interest or return the capital. All of these events
can reduce the value of bonds held by the fund.
Investing in emerging markets involves a greater risk of loss due to greater political, tax, economic, foreign exchange, liquidity and regulatory risks, among other factors.
There may be difficulties in buying, selling, safekeeping or valuing investments in such countries.
In exceptional circumstances where assets cannot be fairly valued, or have to be sold at a large discount to raise cash, we may temporarily suspend the fund in the best
interest of all investors.
The fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it does business becomes unwilling or unable to repay money owed to the fund.
Further details of the risks that apply to the fund can be found in the fund's Prospectus.
Other important information:
The fund allows for the extensive use of derivatives
77
Maria Municchi
Biography
• Joined M&G in 2009 and is a member of the Multi Asset team
• Fund Manager for the M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund and the M&G (Lux)
Sustainable Allocation Fund. Deputy fund manager for the M&G Episode
Income Fund and M&G (Lux) Income Allocation Fund. Maria held the same
position on the M&G Income Allocation Fund, a UK-authorised OEIC which
merged into the M&G (Lux) Income Allocation Fund on 16 March 2018.
• Before joining M&G, Maria worked at Barings and UBS Asset Management
• She has an MSc in international management and finance and is a CFA
charterholder
78
Agenda
The journey of sustainable investing
Building a sustainable multi-asset solution
Current positioning
79
The journey of sustainable investments
Source: M&G, February 2019
Ethical investing
Investing based
on exclusions
Driven by ethical
or religious
principles
ESG investing Impact investing
Investing based
on exclusions
and selection of
best-in-class
Incorporating
environmental,
social and
governance
factors
Investing in
companies
generating a
positive impact on
society
Addressing the
world major
environmental &
social challenges
Reduce negative externalities Increase positive externalities
80
The spectrum of Responsible Investment
Source: 2018 Global Sustainable Investment Review, GSIA
Norms-
based
exclusions
Sector
screens
ESG screens
ESG
Engagement
Sustainability IMPACT
ESG
integration
PROFIT with PURPOSE

Financial returns focus
Norms based
screening
Exclusions Positive
screening
ESG
integration
Engagement Sustainability
themed
Impact
4.7 19.8 1.8 17.5 9.8 1.0 0.4
-24% +31% +125% +69% +17% +269% +79%
Market size
(USD trillion)
Market growth
(CAGR 2016-18)
One size does not fit all
81
Agenda
The journey of sustainable investing
Building a sustainable multi-asset solution
Current positioning
82
What is our objective?
Source: M&G, February 2019. *The Fund aims to provide this return while considering environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
‘Democratising’ sustainable investments
A flexible and diversified asset allocation to benefit from and withstand changing
market environments
Integrate ESG principles and invest in and provide financing to companies
making a positive impact to society
Provide investors with an attractive financial return (total return between 4% and
8% per annum, net of the ongoing charge figure, over any 5-year period*)
83
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, February 2019
Proposition overview
Neutrality
Investment processObjective
Other,
10%
Total return (the combination of capital
growth and income) of 4 to 8% per annum.
net of the ongoing charge figure, over any 5-
year period*
Equity,
40%
Fixed
income,
50%
Asset allocation
based on M&G
multi-asset
philosophy
ESG screened
Equities,
fixed income,
currencies, derivatives
Positive impact
(10-30%)
Listed equities and
green bonds,
infrastructure and
specialty funds
Flexible asset allocation to meet market
opportunities: 20-80% in bonds, 20-60% in equities
and 0-20% in other assets.
Neutrality is the positioning of the fund if all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’. This can be thought of as a strategic asset allocation. In an ideal world, when all assets
were trading at their ‘fair value’, then neutrality would be how a fund was positioned, given its strategy and risk profile. However, assets seldom trade at fair value, so the actual
allocation of each fund may not match the neutral position.
*The Fund aims to provide this return while considering environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
There is no guarantee that the fund will achieve a positive return over any period. Investors may not get back the original amount they
invested.
Expected annualised volatility
Between 4% and 7%
over any 5-year period
84
Investment philosophy and process
Source: M&G, Thomson Reuters Datastream, 1 January 2018. *Real yield for equity is defined as an inflation-adjusted inverted p/e ratio, using forward consensus data. DM =
developed markets. EM = emerging markets. DM Govt Bonds = equal weight US/ UK/Germany/Japan 10Y. EM Govt Bonds = equal weight
Malaysia/Mexico/S.Africa/India/Brazil. DM Corp = US/UK/EU BBB
Strategic, dynamic and diversified
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Broad range of investment toolsIdentifying and capturing
‘episodic opportunities’
Building in a ‘margin of safety’
through valuation opportunities
Valuation framework Asset class diversification
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
RealYield*
Current
Neutrality
Dynamic asset allocation
RISK MANAGEMENT: embedded at every stage
Green
infrastructure
Listed
equities
Sovereign
Bonds
Green
bonds
Collective
funds
Cash
Supranational
bonds
MSCIACWorld
Financial crisis
‘Tapering’
Draghi:
‘whatever
it takes’
Brexit
‘Abenomics’
Fiscal Cliff
Arab Spring
First round of QE
Oil price
halves
US
election
• Valuation modelling
• Quantitative analysis
• Identifying ‘episodic’
opportunities
• Asset selection
• Position sizing
• Stress testing
• Broad investment
universe
• Cost-effective
implementation
Neutrality: the level of yield where M&G’s Multi Asset fund managers would consider the asset to be ‘fairly’ priced, where the expected return is deemed to be a fair
reflection of the asset’s underlying value.
85
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, February 2019. *For illustrative purposes only.
Portfolio construction
ESG
Screened
Neutrality and asset allocation
Other,
10%
Equity,
40%
Fixed
income,
50%
Flexible asset allocation to meet market opportunities: 20-80%
in bonds, 20-60% in equities and 0-20% in other assets.
Neutrality is the positioning of the fund if all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’. This can be thought of as a strategic asset allocation. In an ideal world, when all assets were
trading at their ‘fair value’, then neutrality would be how a fund was positioned, given its strategy and risk profile. However, assets seldom trade at fair value, so the actual
allocation of each fund may not match the neutral position.
ESG allocation*
86
Portfolio construction: ESG screened
Source: M&G, February 2019. *Assets are excluded if they are assessed to be in breach of the UN Global Compact Principles on human rights, labour, environment and
anti- corruption **For excluded sectors, the revenue limit is 0% for production ***Note that MSCI ESG ratings are not the same as credit ratings.
†Examples of ESG criteria used to assess ESG rating, these will vary by sector
Three-level screening
Ensuring high ESG standards
Environmental:
- Excessive carbon emission
- Toxic waste
Social:
- Human Capital
Development
- Privacy & Data Security
Governance:
- Independence of the board
- Appropriate compensation
of management
ESG criteria†
XXX
Exclude sector
producers**
Exclude
companies in
breach of UN
Global Compact
principles*
Governments:
BB or higher***
Corporates:
BBB or higher***
Investible universe
87
In practice: ESG screened corporates
Source: M&G, December 2018. Image sources: By Flohuels - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16005959, By Shrijagannatha -
Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43598849
Tech: Facebook OUT/Alphabet IN
Facebook: BB Alphabet: A
Privacy & Data Security:
• strong controversies
• downgraded into the lowest quartile
Human Capital Development
• Reliance on highly skilled employees
• High attrition
Corruption & Instability
• Strong policies developed to address censorship and
government surveillance issues
Corporate Governance
• Controlling Shareholder Concerns
• Entrenched board & less than 30% female directors
Corruption & Stability
• High levels of protection through its founding
membership in the Global Network Initiative
• High transparency over government data requests
Human Capital Development
• Highly exposed to recruitment, retention and
employee productivity challenges
• However, sector leading benefits, engagement and
development offers attract talented developers.
88
In practice: Government bonds
Source: M&G, December 2018, Image sources: By Aidenvironment, 1998, CC BY-SA 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Deforestation_near_Bukit_Tiga_Puluh_NP.jpg#/media/File:Deforestation_near_Bukit_Tiga_Puluh_NP.jpg
Indonesian government bond
Indonesian government bond
Inter American Development Bank:
• The main source of multi lateral financing in Latin
America
Sustainability:
• 100% of bank operations are linked to sustainability
and UN SDGs
Strong credit profile:
• Attractiveness of the IDR currency exposure
Supranational bond issued in IDR
ESG rating:
• BB
Lack of government policies:
• Weak management of palm oil plantation leading
to CO2 emissions, deforestations and biodiversity
International collaboration:
• International framework for sustainable palm oil
still inadequate
89
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019. *MSCI ESG rating as at 31 August 2019. MSCI ESG rating is calculated based only on the holdings in the MSCI ESG-screened component
of the fund. Total fund MSCI ESG rating: 6.61, includes MSCI ESG-screened component and positive impact holdings in the portfolio, excluding cash and non-rated
holdings. **Average score of the corporates and government bonds is calculated after rebasing both categories to 100.
Portfolio: Ratings of ESG screened holdings
MSCI ESG rating breakdown
2.9%
7.1%
18.5%
18.2%
10.5%
4.5%
18.7%
19.5%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Non-rated
BBB
A
AA
AAA
BB
BBB
A
CorporatesGovernments
Average ESG
rating of
governments**:
5.6
Average ESG
rating of
corporates**:
7.4
90
Portfolio construction: Positive impact (10-30%)
Source: M&G, February 2019. *As defined by the United Nations.
Three factors analysis (iii)
Supporting companies to deliver a clear and demonstrable positive impact
on society
Investment
- Quality of the
investment
- Risks
assessment
Intention
- Mission statement and
strategic alignment
- Culture and
governance
Impact
- Material contribution to
UN Sustainable
Development Goals*
- Impact monitoring and
measurability
- Listed equities
- Green and sustainable
bonds
- Supranational bonds
- Green infrastructure
- Bonds and convertible
bonds of impactful
companies
Positive impact
investments
91
Fibria green bond
Source: M&G, Fibria cellulose, 2017 Annual Report
A Brazilian fibre pulp producer fighting deforestation and biodiversity loss
Investment:
• 700 mill USD Outstanding green bond
• BBB- rating, 5.5% coupon
Protect, restore and promote
sustainable use of terrestrial
ecosystems, sustainably manage
forests (…)
Intention:
• Use of proceeds for sustainable projects,
restoration of native forests and conservation
of biodiversity
• Sustainalytics review
Impact:
• 1.092 million hectares of forest which
includes 656,000 hectares of planted
forests and 374,000 of hectares of
environmental preservation and
conservation areas
92
Bright Horizon
Source: M&G, November 2018. Image source: Getty Images
Supporting working families in the US and Europe
Investment:
• Strong business model, capital light and cash
generative with strong positioning vs peers
Achieve gender equality and empower
all women and girls
Intention:
• Nurturing and educating children while supporting
families
Impact:
• 117,250 capacity and more than 5.5
millions covered for back-up care
93
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019
Asset allocation: Positive impact holdings
31%
52%
17% Impact - Corporate bonds
Impact - Equities
Impact - Infrastructure
Portfolio: Positive impact areas
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
Better health, saving lives
Better work conditions
Circular economy
Cleaner air, water and land
Climate solutions
Social equality
94
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019
Portfolio – prime SDG split
SDG 3: Good Health and Wellbeing
SDG 4: Quality Education
SDG 5: Gender Equality
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 12: Responsible Production and Consumption
SDG 15: Life on Land
95
Agenda
The journey of sustainable investing
Building a sustainable multi-asset solution
Current positioning
96
Fund positioning
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Equity exposure: 49.6%. Alternative exposure: 3.8%
18.2%
12.6%
10.9%
6.5%
1.4%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Europe equity Japan equity US equity Asia ex Japan equity EM equity Alternative investments
Banks
basket Banks
basket Banks
basket
Tech basket
97
Fund positioning
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Fixed income exposure: 30.9%*
Developed market government bonds CreditEmerging market government bonds
12.6%
5.6%
-2.4%
-5.4%
3.2% 3.0%
2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0%
8.8%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019. *Excludes cash
98
Fund positioning
M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund
Source: M&G, 31 August 2019
Currency exposure
4.3%
3.5%
3.2%
2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%
1.5%
1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
0.1%
-0.01%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
74%
60%
80%
≈
99
For financial advisers only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within. This financial promotion is issued by M&G
Securities Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and provides ISAs and other investment products. The company’s registered office
is 10 Fenchurch Avenue, London EC3M 5AG. Registered in England and Wales. Registered Number 90776.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Client Success Team
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FAQs
Question 1. Risk Profile Client Invites – how to send and import data
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128
For professional investors | for promotional purposes. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and
you may not get back the amount originally invested.
Macro and market outlook
September 2019
Multi-Asset Team
Nick Watson
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset
129
Is the bull market over?
20% drawdown in 2018
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MSCI World
Developed market equity performance
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: Rebased to 100 as at December 2009
130
Equity returns since the start of 2018
Market fatigue
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019
If you are investing in a different currency than shown, this may cause figures to differ from those shown
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Total returns in USD (%)
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
China
EM
Japan
Eurozone
UK
US
131
It’s over
End of the QE era
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, J.P. Morgan, as at March 2019
Notes: 12 month change as of 31 December, bn USD. Forecast Data beyond March 2019.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Change in G3 balance sheets ($bn)
Change in G3 central bank balance sheets ($ bn)
132
Momentum fading
Consensus estimates of global growth
Consensus G10 real GDP growth forecasts (YoY %)
Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts, as at August 2019
Note: Chart shows how forecasts for each year were revised across time
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
133
The Trump bump
US growth peaking
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q316 Q317 Q318 Q319 Q320
Real GDP growth Forecasts
US GDP growth year-on-year (%)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
134
China – diminishing disappointments
Changes to consensus forecasts
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg consensus forecasts, as at August 2019
Notes: For a given forecasted year, the dashed line represents the difference between the forecast point at the beginning of the previous year and the last forecast point
Change in consensus forecasts for China real GDP growth (%)
5
6
7
8
9
10
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2012
2013 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019
2011
135
Subdued inflation
Sub-2% again
Consensus forecasts for CPI (YoY, %)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
U.S. UK Eurozone Japan
2018
2019
Target
136
Interest rate outlook
Flat forever
Interest rate projections (%)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019
Notes: Forecasts for 31 December of each year using OIS pricing
Market expectations for US interest rates
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019
Notes: OIS interest rate forecasts
Policy rate 2019 2020 2021
Bank of
England
0.75 0.53 0.36 0.36
Federal
Reserve
2.25 1.49 1.07 1.05
European
Central Bank
-0.40 -0.58 -0.72 -0.66
Bank of Japan -0.10 -0.16 -0.24 -0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22
Projected interest rate by date
30/09/2018 31/12/2018 08/08/2019
137
When is the next recession coming?
A year after unemployment rises
US unemployment rate (%)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
US unemployment rate troughs
Recession Equity peak
Dec-69 15 2
Nov-73 1 -10
Jan-80 8 8
Jul-90 16 15
Mar-01 11 -2
Dec-07 14 11
Median 13 5
Average 11 4
Months from unemployment
rate trough to:Start of
recession
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, J.P. Morgan, as at 31 May 2019
2
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Recession
US unemployment rate
138
Politics is back
Source: These ‘headlines’ represent news flow as of May 2019 and Janus Henderson Investors views of the world
Political risk a key driver of market sentiment in 2019
Brexit deadlock!
139
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
US
UK
Germany
Low risk, low return
10 year government bond yields
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
10-year nominal yields (%)
140
Yields aligned to macro fundamentals
US Treasury yields and new order index
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: Composite of ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing new order indices
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Yield curve steepness (%) (left)
Consumer expectations vs situation (right)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
50
54
58
62
66
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ISM new orders composite (left)
10 year US Treasury yield (%) (right)
US yield curve and consumer surveys
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: Yield curve shown as US 10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month
equivalent. Consumer expectations minus current situation responses.
Government bond yields
141
High risk, low return
Risky stocks are struggling
Developed market industry relative performance
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, as at August 2019
Notes: Performance relative to MSCI World, rebased to 100
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
70
80
90
100
110
70
80
90
100
110
Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19
Autos & components
Banks
Airlines
80
90
100
110
120
130
100
110
120
130
Dec 03 Dec 08 Dec 13 Dec 18
Smaller companies relative
Relative performance of smaller companies
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, as at August 2019
Notes: Performance of MSCI Smid factor versus MSCI World, total return
142
Mid-risk assets – the sweet spot
Mid-risk assets appeal as bull market matures
Investment
grade
High yield
EMD
Quality
Income
Low volatility
Property
Infrastructure
Renewables
Fixed
income
Investment
grade
High yield
EMD
Equities
Quality
Income
Low volatility
Alternatives
Property
Infrastructure
Renewables
143
Negative yields
$15.6tn bonds with negative yields
Total negative yielding investment grade debt ($ trn)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of the world
Rest of Eurozone
France
Germany
Japan
144
Quality and the cycle
Take risk in the recovery, seek quality in a slowdown
30%
25% 25%
19%
21%
10%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
A+ A A- B+ B B- C&D
25% 25%
28%
34%
41%
53%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
A+ A A- B+ B B- C&D
Profit cycle accelerating Profit cycle decelerating
Source: BoA Merrill Lynch, as at May 2019
Notes: Data based on 4 economic cycles from 1986 to May 2019
Quality groups are based on the S&P Common Stock rankings, a gauge of the stability and growth of a company’s earnings and dividends
Numbers refer to cumulative performance by each quality group across all phases of profit acceleration or deceleration
 higher quality lower quality  higher quality lower quality
145
Emerging market equities
Trade concerns have eroded macro momentum
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Changes in the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Forecast Revision Index relative to the Developed Markets Forecast Revision Index
EM equity relative performance and changing growth forecasts
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
Relative forecast revisions (left)
EM - DM Equity Index (right)
146
Reflation trades
More cyclical markets outperform when bond yields rise
EURO STOXX and bund yields
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: EUROSTOXX 50 (USD) relative to MSCI World rebased to 100 at
December 2014
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: TOPIX (USD) relative to MSCI World rebased to 100 at December 2014
TOPIX and Japanese government bond yields
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TOPIX vs MSCI World
Japanese 10yr bond yield (% RHS)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EURO STOXX vs MSCI World
German 10yr bond yield (% RHS)
147
Gold
Gold bottoms as the dollar peaks
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17
Gold price
250 day average
Gold price ($ per troy ounce)
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Gold correlation with global equities
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
Notes: Chart shows 100 week rolling correlation of gold to the MSCI World total
return index
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Correlation
148
Active management
Active managers add value when market returns are lower
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.9%
-2.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Sub
-10%
-5% to
-10%
-5% to
0%
0% to
5%
5% to
10%
10% to
15%
Over
15%
Average 3-year active management outperformance (pa)
Source: Morningstar Direct. Monthly data January 1993 to January 2019.
US Large Cap funds versus S&P 500, includes closed or merged funds
Performance net of fees, since 1993
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
149
Summary of our views
Low cycle, late cycle, long cycle
• Transition to post-stimulus economy
• Low growth, inflation and rates
• Elongated expansion
Macro
• Strategically favour mid-risk assets
• Policy priced-in. Macro momentum now the key driver
• More volatility – more active management
Asset allocation
• Any threat to “lower for longer” scenario
• Global trade negotiations
• Brexit
Wildcards
Appendix
151
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17 Jan 19
DB GBP Trade Weighted Index
Sterling index
Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg as at 04 September 2019
Brexit probabilities
Brexit – now what?
Uncertainty lingers
Source: Probabilities based on Betfair Exchange odds, 04 September 2019
86%
5%
24%
27%
35%
-20% 10% 40% 70% 100%
2019 general election
EU referendum before 2020
Article 50 to be revoked
"No deal" Brexit in 2019
Brexit by 31 October 2019
152
Janus Henderson Investors
201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE
Tel: 020 7818 1818 Fax: 020 7818 1819
G:CSUK2019!PG19Macro slides June 2019 IOP .pptx
Important information
This document is intended solely for the use of professionals, defined as Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, and is not for general public
distribution.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those
circumstances or the law change.
If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ
materially.
Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any
investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment.
Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Prospectus (including all relevant covering
documents), which will contain investment restrictions. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the
prospectus, and where relevant, the key investor information document before investing. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to
improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.
Issued in Europe by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus
Capital International Limited (reg. no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531),
AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no. 2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate,
London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg. no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg,
L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier).
Janus Henderson, Janus, Henderson, Perkins, Intech, AlphaGen, VelocityShares, Knowledge. Shared and Knowledge Labs are trademarks of Janus Henderson
Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc.
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Dynamic Planner Training Academy - 10 September London

  • 1. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Autumn 2019 Training Academies London
  • 2. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Housekeeping Please switch off your mobile phones Toilets Fire drills
  • 3. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Agenda 09:00 – 09:30 Breakfast, registration and networking 09:30 – 09:40 Introduction and welcome 09:40 – 10:10 Dynamic Planner Client Success (live demo) – Client Case Study, a ‘how to’ session 10:10 – 10:40 Dynamic Planner Asset & Risk Modelling – The Importance of Fund Risk Profiling 10:40 – 11:00 Refreshments and networking 11:00 – 11:20 Dynamic Planner Client Success (live demo) – Client Review Process Update, what is new and what’s coming up in ‘Elements’ 11:20 – 11:50 Partner session 1 11:50 – 12:20 Dynamic Planner Client Success – ‘Let me show you how’, common questions asked by our clients 12:20 – 12:40 Partner session 2 - Global economic update 12:40 Lunch and networking – A chance to ask questions one-on-one
  • 4. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Introduction & Welcome Dynamic Planner
  • 5. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner Case Study: Retirement Planning Client Success Team
  • 6. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Learning objectives Client Profile Name: Andrew Green DOB: 10/02/1970 (50 next birthday) Retirement Portfolio: Circa £450k in Scottish Widows Personal Pension Plan. Objective: retire at 60 and enjoy flexibility under drawdown Learning Objective To be able to understand the required information and steps needed to create a Retirement Wealth Plan for Andrew. Demonstrate how to perform the following in order to meet Andrew’s objectives: → Pension Transfer → Rebalance portfolio → Annual review (Session 2)
  • 7. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Begin in ‘Client record’
  • 8. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Select the relationship type
  • 9. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Always remember to name your case
  • 10. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Case control centre
  • 11. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Existing arrangements
  • 12. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Investor experience
  • 13. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘15 Question Attitude to Risk’
  • 14. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Consistency check
  • 15. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Capacity for risk’
  • 16. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Select a risk profile’
  • 17. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Value at Risk
  • 18. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Analysis
  • 19. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Efficient frontier
  • 20. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Recommendations
  • 21. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Product actions
  • 22. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Portfolio Suitability Hub
  • 23. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Fund filters
  • 24. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Search by Citicode, ISIN or MEXID
  • 25. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Add to portfolio
  • 26. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Align weightings accordingly
  • 27. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Asset allocation – Recommendation Click Finish Button
  • 28. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Transferred to new policy
  • 29. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Reporting
  • 30. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Report preview
  • 31. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Close down your case
  • 32. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Product summary’
  • 33. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Complete case and update client
  • 34. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Client confirmation update’
  • 35. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Complete case’
  • 36. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner – The Importance of Fund Risk Profiling Jim Henning, Head of Investment Services Jason Dewar, Head of Fund Research
  • 37. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Learning outcomes → Dynamic Planner Asset & Risk Model Philosophy → Foundations of the Fund Risk Profiling service → Centralised retirement process risk mitigation strategies
  • 38. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important? → Last 20 years have seen volatility for higher yield debt and equity fall considerably → Now similar levels to UK gilts → Interest rate normalisation and end of benign markets ahead? Source Lipper – Rolling 3 year period volatility
  • 39. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important? Volatility compression continues, but spikey Interest rate normalisation ahead?
  • 40. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Why is forward-looking fund risk profiling important? Global financial system going back on Methadone Bond yields at historic lows → duration risk higher -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 %Yield Govt Bond 10 Year Yields 10YR UK Govt 10YR US Govt 10Y Bunds
  • 41. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner Fund Risk Profiling → Not based on past performance → Not based on sector asset ranges where divergence of outcomes can be wide → Not based on an arbitrary equity index relative scoring 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 2 3 4 Frequency SRRI score Mixed Investment 40-85% Shares 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 annualisedvolatility% Annualised Volatility - last 5 years Dynamic Planner Approach → Risk-adjusted benchmark ex-ante analysis → Client centric Source Lipper/Dynamic Planner max max min
  • 42. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner Asset Allocation philosophy Ensures ongoing investment suitability by translating these characteristics to the needs, objectives, situation and risk profile of the client Equity Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Currency Risk, Basis Risk Holding Period Risk, Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk, Concentration Risk, Counterparty Risk
  • 43. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Robust basis for Fund Risk Profiling – Quarterly oversight Asset Allocation Comparison to Dynamic Planner -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.2% 6.3% 8.4% 10.5% 12.6% 14.7% 16.8% 18.9% 21.0% Expectedrealreturn(%pa) Expected volatility (% pa) DT profiles Multi Asset Growth I Multi Asset Growth II Multi Asset Growth III Multi Asset Growth IV Forward looking analysis
  • 44. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Robust basis for Fund Risk Profiling – Quarterly oversight The historical volatility ‘journey’ relative to the Dynamic Planner asset allocation Measured by tracking error analysis Helps to understand the level of risk being taking 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Quarterly time series Fund Volatility Risk Profile 4 Risk Profile 5 Risk Profile 6 Rear view ‘sense check’
  • 45. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner Fund Risk Profiling services Risk Target ManagedRisk Profiled → Portfolios managed in line with Dynamic Planner model assumptions   → Additional investment consultancy from Dynamic Planner   → Dynamic Planner Risk Profile may change   627 FRP’d funds + 617 DFM portfolios 72 RTM funds + 38 DFM portfolios
  • 46. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. ‘Cruise’ Active ‘Coronation St’ Sedentary ‘Care home’ Dependent Day to day needs: Housing, Food, Heating Regular discretionary: Meals out Leisure One-off discretionary: Holiday Care costs Needs in retirement → Average size of pension pot going into drawdown is £123,000* → Joseph Rowntree Foundation says a retired couple need a minimum of £13,500 pa → Yet clients will need to spend additional money at key life stages Applying Fund Risk Profiling to a Centralised Retirement Proposition £ Care costs Drawdown from capital inevitable for most *Source FCA data bulletin – Sept 2018
  • 47. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. → Rate variability → Capital & income erosion → Increasing life expectancy → Long-term care funding → Income variability → Capital uncertainty → Fixed withdrawals → Pound cost ravaging Sequencing Risk Investment Risk Inflation RiskLongevity Risk Drawdown risk cycle – Four key segments
  • 48. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Applying Fund Risk Profiling to a Centralised Retirement Proposition The problem for natural yield investors → What level of risk am I taking to generate attractive income? → What is the expected level of risk? → How consistent is the income stream and capital variability? → Which peer group analysis is relevant? The Solution Income Focus Research Reports – for Multi Asset funds Premium / Select Research – for Single Sector & Multi Asset funds
  • 49. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Premium and Select Research ratings Sector Peer group Single Sector Funds IA sector classifications Multi-Asset Fund DP’s 1-10 Risk Benchmarks Risk Targeted Funds Relative to the RTM fund families The rating considers a fund’s consistency (or fit) against the Dynamic Planner asset and risk model and its efficiency in delivering returns. A uniform scoring matrix and ranked within a relevant peer group. 5 years 3 years
  • 50. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Sequence of returns – An actual example Example: popular MA fund Dynamic Planner Risk Profiled 4 Over seven years £10,000 made total return of £16,348 (7.3% pa) This risk has been unnoticed because of benign markets (blue line)… but the risk hasn’t gone away If: Fixed £ monthly withdrawal of £41.67 pcm (so 5% of original pa) The outcome can vary by 53% depending on monthly sequence of returns
  • 51. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. The impact of volatility drag 1% 5% 11% 25% 43% 67% 100% 150% 233% -1% -5% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Gain required to fully recover from a loss Gain to recover Amplification of sequencing risk when more volatility occurs. Loss So reduce volatility to mitigate the sequencing risk
  • 52. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Sequence risk mitigation via our Fund Risk Profiling services The problem for decumulation investors: “There has been little in the way of product innovation in retirement income products since pension freedoms came into force.” FCA Sector Views, January 2019 The solution: A new asset and risk model service to asset managers New asset allocation framework Measures and monitors the risk of a fall in value on a monthly basis Ensures the risk to the client’s capital remains the same over the annual client review period
  • 53. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. How effective Risk Managed solutions can be identified and profiled Monthly Risk Control Required to be RMD Fixed Income Property Cash Absolute Return Risk of short-term correlation with equities Over exposure to inflation risk Liquidity risk and risk of gating Short-term downside protection Ideally Market Neutral Hedge funds More negatively correlated to equities in short-term Less inflation risk Mandates and objectives focused on short-term risk
  • 54. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. A new standard for decumulation solutions Badges will be applied to the RMD solutions from asset managers when joining the service
  • 55. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Fund research landing page will show where to find RMD funds
  • 56. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Centralised Retirement Proposition – Challenges addressed → Rate variability → Capital & income erosion → Increasing life expectancy → Long-term care → Income variability → Capital uncertainty → Fixed withdrawals → Pound cost ravaging Sequencing Risk Investment Risk Inflation Risk Longevity Risk  Asset & Risk Model  Income Focus & Research Reports  Asset & Risk Model in real terms  Cashflow modelling
  • 57. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Thank you
  • 58. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Refreshments and networking
  • 59. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Dynamic Planner Elements / Client Review Process Update Client Success Team
  • 60. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. What our clients say “I don’t think there is anything else out there like this – it’s a new document for a new process, which, because of MiFID II, advisers have to produce now,” said Chris Miller, Miller Associates. “Dynamic Planner is way ahead of the pack with this,” said Nick Ryan, Yellow Bear Financial Consultancy. “It’s the way forward for me as an independent adviser,” said Dmitry Morgan, Morgan Financial. “It puts me in the same position as large national firms, in terms of their very slick presentation and will definitely save me time.” “Elements produces an impressive report, which demonstrates to your clients that as a firm you are professional and you know what you’re doing,” said Gary King, GK Financial Solutions.
  • 61. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. How to access Elements
  • 62. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. New Elements service
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  • 75. September 2019 For investment professionals only Maria Municchi, Fund Manager Building a sustainable multi-asset solution for clients
  • 76. 76 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Main risks associated with this fund The value and income from the fund's assets will go down as well as up. This will cause the value of your investment to fall as well as rise. There is no guarantee that the fund will achieve its objective and you may get back less than you originally invested. The fund is exposed to different currencies. Derivatives are used to minimise, but may not always eliminate, the impact of movements in currency exchange rates. The fund may use derivatives to profit from an expected rise or fall in the value of an asset. Should the asset's value vary in an unexpected way, the fund may lose as much as or more than the amount invested. Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates, inflation and credit ratings. It is possible that bond issuers will not pay interest or return the capital. All of these events can reduce the value of bonds held by the fund. Investing in emerging markets involves a greater risk of loss due to greater political, tax, economic, foreign exchange, liquidity and regulatory risks, among other factors. There may be difficulties in buying, selling, safekeeping or valuing investments in such countries. In exceptional circumstances where assets cannot be fairly valued, or have to be sold at a large discount to raise cash, we may temporarily suspend the fund in the best interest of all investors. The fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it does business becomes unwilling or unable to repay money owed to the fund. Further details of the risks that apply to the fund can be found in the fund's Prospectus. Other important information: The fund allows for the extensive use of derivatives
  • 77. 77 Maria Municchi Biography • Joined M&G in 2009 and is a member of the Multi Asset team • Fund Manager for the M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund and the M&G (Lux) Sustainable Allocation Fund. Deputy fund manager for the M&G Episode Income Fund and M&G (Lux) Income Allocation Fund. Maria held the same position on the M&G Income Allocation Fund, a UK-authorised OEIC which merged into the M&G (Lux) Income Allocation Fund on 16 March 2018. • Before joining M&G, Maria worked at Barings and UBS Asset Management • She has an MSc in international management and finance and is a CFA charterholder
  • 78. 78 Agenda The journey of sustainable investing Building a sustainable multi-asset solution Current positioning
  • 79. 79 The journey of sustainable investments Source: M&G, February 2019 Ethical investing Investing based on exclusions Driven by ethical or religious principles ESG investing Impact investing Investing based on exclusions and selection of best-in-class Incorporating environmental, social and governance factors Investing in companies generating a positive impact on society Addressing the world major environmental & social challenges Reduce negative externalities Increase positive externalities
  • 80. 80 The spectrum of Responsible Investment Source: 2018 Global Sustainable Investment Review, GSIA Norms- based exclusions Sector screens ESG screens ESG Engagement Sustainability IMPACT ESG integration PROFIT with PURPOSE  Financial returns focus Norms based screening Exclusions Positive screening ESG integration Engagement Sustainability themed Impact 4.7 19.8 1.8 17.5 9.8 1.0 0.4 -24% +31% +125% +69% +17% +269% +79% Market size (USD trillion) Market growth (CAGR 2016-18) One size does not fit all
  • 81. 81 Agenda The journey of sustainable investing Building a sustainable multi-asset solution Current positioning
  • 82. 82 What is our objective? Source: M&G, February 2019. *The Fund aims to provide this return while considering environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. ‘Democratising’ sustainable investments A flexible and diversified asset allocation to benefit from and withstand changing market environments Integrate ESG principles and invest in and provide financing to companies making a positive impact to society Provide investors with an attractive financial return (total return between 4% and 8% per annum, net of the ongoing charge figure, over any 5-year period*)
  • 83. 83 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, February 2019 Proposition overview Neutrality Investment processObjective Other, 10% Total return (the combination of capital growth and income) of 4 to 8% per annum. net of the ongoing charge figure, over any 5- year period* Equity, 40% Fixed income, 50% Asset allocation based on M&G multi-asset philosophy ESG screened Equities, fixed income, currencies, derivatives Positive impact (10-30%) Listed equities and green bonds, infrastructure and specialty funds Flexible asset allocation to meet market opportunities: 20-80% in bonds, 20-60% in equities and 0-20% in other assets. Neutrality is the positioning of the fund if all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’. This can be thought of as a strategic asset allocation. In an ideal world, when all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’, then neutrality would be how a fund was positioned, given its strategy and risk profile. However, assets seldom trade at fair value, so the actual allocation of each fund may not match the neutral position. *The Fund aims to provide this return while considering environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. There is no guarantee that the fund will achieve a positive return over any period. Investors may not get back the original amount they invested. Expected annualised volatility Between 4% and 7% over any 5-year period
  • 84. 84 Investment philosophy and process Source: M&G, Thomson Reuters Datastream, 1 January 2018. *Real yield for equity is defined as an inflation-adjusted inverted p/e ratio, using forward consensus data. DM = developed markets. EM = emerging markets. DM Govt Bonds = equal weight US/ UK/Germany/Japan 10Y. EM Govt Bonds = equal weight Malaysia/Mexico/S.Africa/India/Brazil. DM Corp = US/UK/EU BBB Strategic, dynamic and diversified 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Broad range of investment toolsIdentifying and capturing ‘episodic opportunities’ Building in a ‘margin of safety’ through valuation opportunities Valuation framework Asset class diversification -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% RealYield* Current Neutrality Dynamic asset allocation RISK MANAGEMENT: embedded at every stage Green infrastructure Listed equities Sovereign Bonds Green bonds Collective funds Cash Supranational bonds MSCIACWorld Financial crisis ‘Tapering’ Draghi: ‘whatever it takes’ Brexit ‘Abenomics’ Fiscal Cliff Arab Spring First round of QE Oil price halves US election • Valuation modelling • Quantitative analysis • Identifying ‘episodic’ opportunities • Asset selection • Position sizing • Stress testing • Broad investment universe • Cost-effective implementation Neutrality: the level of yield where M&G’s Multi Asset fund managers would consider the asset to be ‘fairly’ priced, where the expected return is deemed to be a fair reflection of the asset’s underlying value.
  • 85. 85 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, February 2019. *For illustrative purposes only. Portfolio construction ESG Screened Neutrality and asset allocation Other, 10% Equity, 40% Fixed income, 50% Flexible asset allocation to meet market opportunities: 20-80% in bonds, 20-60% in equities and 0-20% in other assets. Neutrality is the positioning of the fund if all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’. This can be thought of as a strategic asset allocation. In an ideal world, when all assets were trading at their ‘fair value’, then neutrality would be how a fund was positioned, given its strategy and risk profile. However, assets seldom trade at fair value, so the actual allocation of each fund may not match the neutral position. ESG allocation*
  • 86. 86 Portfolio construction: ESG screened Source: M&G, February 2019. *Assets are excluded if they are assessed to be in breach of the UN Global Compact Principles on human rights, labour, environment and anti- corruption **For excluded sectors, the revenue limit is 0% for production ***Note that MSCI ESG ratings are not the same as credit ratings. †Examples of ESG criteria used to assess ESG rating, these will vary by sector Three-level screening Ensuring high ESG standards Environmental: - Excessive carbon emission - Toxic waste Social: - Human Capital Development - Privacy & Data Security Governance: - Independence of the board - Appropriate compensation of management ESG criteria† XXX Exclude sector producers** Exclude companies in breach of UN Global Compact principles* Governments: BB or higher*** Corporates: BBB or higher*** Investible universe
  • 87. 87 In practice: ESG screened corporates Source: M&G, December 2018. Image sources: By Flohuels - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16005959, By Shrijagannatha - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43598849 Tech: Facebook OUT/Alphabet IN Facebook: BB Alphabet: A Privacy & Data Security: • strong controversies • downgraded into the lowest quartile Human Capital Development • Reliance on highly skilled employees • High attrition Corruption & Instability • Strong policies developed to address censorship and government surveillance issues Corporate Governance • Controlling Shareholder Concerns • Entrenched board & less than 30% female directors Corruption & Stability • High levels of protection through its founding membership in the Global Network Initiative • High transparency over government data requests Human Capital Development • Highly exposed to recruitment, retention and employee productivity challenges • However, sector leading benefits, engagement and development offers attract talented developers.
  • 88. 88 In practice: Government bonds Source: M&G, December 2018, Image sources: By Aidenvironment, 1998, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Deforestation_near_Bukit_Tiga_Puluh_NP.jpg#/media/File:Deforestation_near_Bukit_Tiga_Puluh_NP.jpg Indonesian government bond Indonesian government bond Inter American Development Bank: • The main source of multi lateral financing in Latin America Sustainability: • 100% of bank operations are linked to sustainability and UN SDGs Strong credit profile: • Attractiveness of the IDR currency exposure Supranational bond issued in IDR ESG rating: • BB Lack of government policies: • Weak management of palm oil plantation leading to CO2 emissions, deforestations and biodiversity International collaboration: • International framework for sustainable palm oil still inadequate
  • 89. 89 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, 31 August 2019. *MSCI ESG rating as at 31 August 2019. MSCI ESG rating is calculated based only on the holdings in the MSCI ESG-screened component of the fund. Total fund MSCI ESG rating: 6.61, includes MSCI ESG-screened component and positive impact holdings in the portfolio, excluding cash and non-rated holdings. **Average score of the corporates and government bonds is calculated after rebasing both categories to 100. Portfolio: Ratings of ESG screened holdings MSCI ESG rating breakdown 2.9% 7.1% 18.5% 18.2% 10.5% 4.5% 18.7% 19.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Non-rated BBB A AA AAA BB BBB A CorporatesGovernments Average ESG rating of governments**: 5.6 Average ESG rating of corporates**: 7.4
  • 90. 90 Portfolio construction: Positive impact (10-30%) Source: M&G, February 2019. *As defined by the United Nations. Three factors analysis (iii) Supporting companies to deliver a clear and demonstrable positive impact on society Investment - Quality of the investment - Risks assessment Intention - Mission statement and strategic alignment - Culture and governance Impact - Material contribution to UN Sustainable Development Goals* - Impact monitoring and measurability - Listed equities - Green and sustainable bonds - Supranational bonds - Green infrastructure - Bonds and convertible bonds of impactful companies Positive impact investments
  • 91. 91 Fibria green bond Source: M&G, Fibria cellulose, 2017 Annual Report A Brazilian fibre pulp producer fighting deforestation and biodiversity loss Investment: • 700 mill USD Outstanding green bond • BBB- rating, 5.5% coupon Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests (…) Intention: • Use of proceeds for sustainable projects, restoration of native forests and conservation of biodiversity • Sustainalytics review Impact: • 1.092 million hectares of forest which includes 656,000 hectares of planted forests and 374,000 of hectares of environmental preservation and conservation areas
  • 92. 92 Bright Horizon Source: M&G, November 2018. Image source: Getty Images Supporting working families in the US and Europe Investment: • Strong business model, capital light and cash generative with strong positioning vs peers Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Intention: • Nurturing and educating children while supporting families Impact: • 117,250 capacity and more than 5.5 millions covered for back-up care
  • 93. 93 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, 31 August 2019 Asset allocation: Positive impact holdings 31% 52% 17% Impact - Corporate bonds Impact - Equities Impact - Infrastructure Portfolio: Positive impact areas [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Better health, saving lives Better work conditions Circular economy Cleaner air, water and land Climate solutions Social equality
  • 94. 94 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, 31 August 2019 Portfolio – prime SDG split SDG 3: Good Health and Wellbeing SDG 4: Quality Education SDG 5: Gender Equality SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities SDG 12: Responsible Production and Consumption SDG 15: Life on Land
  • 95. 95 Agenda The journey of sustainable investing Building a sustainable multi-asset solution Current positioning
  • 96. 96 Fund positioning Source: M&G, 31 August 2019 M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Equity exposure: 49.6%. Alternative exposure: 3.8% 18.2% 12.6% 10.9% 6.5% 1.4% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Europe equity Japan equity US equity Asia ex Japan equity EM equity Alternative investments Banks basket Banks basket Banks basket Tech basket
  • 97. 97 Fund positioning M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Fixed income exposure: 30.9%* Developed market government bonds CreditEmerging market government bonds 12.6% 5.6% -2.4% -5.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 8.8% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source: M&G, 31 August 2019. *Excludes cash
  • 98. 98 Fund positioning M&G Sustainable Multi Asset Fund Source: M&G, 31 August 2019 Currency exposure 4.3% 3.5% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% -0.01% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 74% 60% 80% ≈
  • 99. 99 For financial advisers only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within. This financial promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and provides ISAs and other investment products. The company’s registered office is 10 Fenchurch Avenue, London EC3M 5AG. Registered in England and Wales. Registered Number 90776.
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  • 128. 128 For professional investors | for promotional purposes. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Macro and market outlook September 2019 Multi-Asset Team Nick Watson Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset
  • 129. 129 Is the bull market over? 20% drawdown in 2018 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MSCI World Developed market equity performance Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: Rebased to 100 as at December 2009
  • 130. 130 Equity returns since the start of 2018 Market fatigue Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019 If you are investing in a different currency than shown, this may cause figures to differ from those shown Past performance is not a guide to future performance Total returns in USD (%) -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% China EM Japan Eurozone UK US
  • 131. 131 It’s over End of the QE era Source: Janus Henderson Investors, J.P. Morgan, as at March 2019 Notes: 12 month change as of 31 December, bn USD. Forecast Data beyond March 2019. Past performance is not a guide to future performance -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Change in G3 balance sheets ($bn) Change in G3 central bank balance sheets ($ bn)
  • 132. 132 Momentum fading Consensus estimates of global growth Consensus G10 real GDP growth forecasts (YoY %) Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts, as at August 2019 Note: Chart shows how forecasts for each year were revised across time Past performance is not a guide to future performance 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 133. 133 The Trump bump US growth peaking 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Q316 Q317 Q318 Q319 Q320 Real GDP growth Forecasts US GDP growth year-on-year (%) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019
  • 134. 134 China – diminishing disappointments Changes to consensus forecasts Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg consensus forecasts, as at August 2019 Notes: For a given forecasted year, the dashed line represents the difference between the forecast point at the beginning of the previous year and the last forecast point Change in consensus forecasts for China real GDP growth (%) 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011
  • 135. 135 Subdued inflation Sub-2% again Consensus forecasts for CPI (YoY, %) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Past performance is not a guide to future performance 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 U.S. UK Eurozone Japan 2018 2019 Target
  • 136. 136 Interest rate outlook Flat forever Interest rate projections (%) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019 Notes: Forecasts for 31 December of each year using OIS pricing Market expectations for US interest rates Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at 08 August 2019 Notes: OIS interest rate forecasts Policy rate 2019 2020 2021 Bank of England 0.75 0.53 0.36 0.36 Federal Reserve 2.25 1.49 1.07 1.05 European Central Bank -0.40 -0.58 -0.72 -0.66 Bank of Japan -0.10 -0.16 -0.24 -0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Projected interest rate by date 30/09/2018 31/12/2018 08/08/2019
  • 137. 137 When is the next recession coming? A year after unemployment rises US unemployment rate (%) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 US unemployment rate troughs Recession Equity peak Dec-69 15 2 Nov-73 1 -10 Jan-80 8 8 Jul-90 16 15 Mar-01 11 -2 Dec-07 14 11 Median 13 5 Average 11 4 Months from unemployment rate trough to:Start of recession Source: Janus Henderson Investors, J.P. Morgan, as at 31 May 2019 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 Recession US unemployment rate
  • 138. 138 Politics is back Source: These ‘headlines’ represent news flow as of May 2019 and Janus Henderson Investors views of the world Political risk a key driver of market sentiment in 2019 Brexit deadlock!
  • 139. 139 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 US UK Germany Low risk, low return 10 year government bond yields Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Past performance is not a guide to future performance 10-year nominal yields (%)
  • 140. 140 Yields aligned to macro fundamentals US Treasury yields and new order index Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: Composite of ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing new order indices -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Yield curve steepness (%) (left) Consumer expectations vs situation (right) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 50 54 58 62 66 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ISM new orders composite (left) 10 year US Treasury yield (%) (right) US yield curve and consumer surveys Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: Yield curve shown as US 10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month equivalent. Consumer expectations minus current situation responses. Government bond yields
  • 141. 141 High risk, low return Risky stocks are struggling Developed market industry relative performance Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, as at August 2019 Notes: Performance relative to MSCI World, rebased to 100 Past performance is not a guide to future performance 70 80 90 100 110 70 80 90 100 110 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Autos & components Banks Airlines 80 90 100 110 120 130 100 110 120 130 Dec 03 Dec 08 Dec 13 Dec 18 Smaller companies relative Relative performance of smaller companies Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Datastream, as at August 2019 Notes: Performance of MSCI Smid factor versus MSCI World, total return
  • 142. 142 Mid-risk assets – the sweet spot Mid-risk assets appeal as bull market matures Investment grade High yield EMD Quality Income Low volatility Property Infrastructure Renewables Fixed income Investment grade High yield EMD Equities Quality Income Low volatility Alternatives Property Infrastructure Renewables
  • 143. 143 Negative yields $15.6tn bonds with negative yields Total negative yielding investment grade debt ($ trn) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rest of the world Rest of Eurozone France Germany Japan
  • 144. 144 Quality and the cycle Take risk in the recovery, seek quality in a slowdown 30% 25% 25% 19% 21% 10% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% A+ A A- B+ B B- C&D 25% 25% 28% 34% 41% 53% 74% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% A+ A A- B+ B B- C&D Profit cycle accelerating Profit cycle decelerating Source: BoA Merrill Lynch, as at May 2019 Notes: Data based on 4 economic cycles from 1986 to May 2019 Quality groups are based on the S&P Common Stock rankings, a gauge of the stability and growth of a company’s earnings and dividends Numbers refer to cumulative performance by each quality group across all phases of profit acceleration or deceleration  higher quality lower quality  higher quality lower quality
  • 145. 145 Emerging market equities Trade concerns have eroded macro momentum Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index Changes in the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Forecast Revision Index relative to the Developed Markets Forecast Revision Index EM equity relative performance and changing growth forecasts 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Relative forecast revisions (left) EM - DM Equity Index (right)
  • 146. 146 Reflation trades More cyclical markets outperform when bond yields rise EURO STOXX and bund yields Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: EUROSTOXX 50 (USD) relative to MSCI World rebased to 100 at December 2014 Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: TOPIX (USD) relative to MSCI World rebased to 100 at December 2014 TOPIX and Japanese government bond yields -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TOPIX vs MSCI World Japanese 10yr bond yield (% RHS) -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EURO STOXX vs MSCI World German 10yr bond yield (% RHS)
  • 147. 147 Gold Gold bottoms as the dollar peaks 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Gold price 250 day average Gold price ($ per troy ounce) Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Gold correlation with global equities Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg, as at August 2019 Notes: Chart shows 100 week rolling correlation of gold to the MSCI World total return index -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Correlation
  • 148. 148 Active management Active managers add value when market returns are lower 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% -0.2% -0.9% -2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% Sub -10% -5% to -10% -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% Over 15% Average 3-year active management outperformance (pa) Source: Morningstar Direct. Monthly data January 1993 to January 2019. US Large Cap funds versus S&P 500, includes closed or merged funds Performance net of fees, since 1993 Past performance is not a guide to future performance
  • 149. 149 Summary of our views Low cycle, late cycle, long cycle • Transition to post-stimulus economy • Low growth, inflation and rates • Elongated expansion Macro • Strategically favour mid-risk assets • Policy priced-in. Macro momentum now the key driver • More volatility – more active management Asset allocation • Any threat to “lower for longer” scenario • Global trade negotiations • Brexit Wildcards
  • 151. 151 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17 Jan 19 DB GBP Trade Weighted Index Sterling index Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg as at 04 September 2019 Brexit probabilities Brexit – now what? Uncertainty lingers Source: Probabilities based on Betfair Exchange odds, 04 September 2019 86% 5% 24% 27% 35% -20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 2019 general election EU referendum before 2020 Article 50 to be revoked "No deal" Brexit in 2019 Brexit by 31 October 2019
  • 152. 152 Janus Henderson Investors 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE Tel: 020 7818 1818 Fax: 020 7818 1819 G:CSUK2019!PG19Macro slides June 2019 IOP .pptx Important information This document is intended solely for the use of professionals, defined as Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, and is not for general public distribution. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ materially. Nothing in this document is intended to or should be construed as advice. This document is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Prospectus (including all relevant covering documents), which will contain investment restrictions. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the prospectus, and where relevant, the key investor information document before investing. We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes. Issued in Europe by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which investment products and services are provided by Janus Capital International Limited (reg. no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no. 2606646), (each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg. no. B22848 at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier). Janus Henderson, Janus, Henderson, Perkins, Intech, AlphaGen, VelocityShares, Knowledge. Shared and Knowledge Labs are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc.
  • 153. ©2019 Distribution Technology Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Lunch and networking A chance to ask questions one-on-one