1) 5G standardization is accelerating with the first 5G trials for the 2018 Winter Olympics and commercial 5G networks expected between 2018-2022. 2) Building dense 5G networks will require significant investment in new cell sites, and it is unclear if mobile network operators can invest alone given high costs of $150-300 per subscriber. 3) Global 5G research and development spending in 2016 is estimated at $56 billion if 5G represented 2% of global research spending, with mobile operators and infrastructure vendors accounting for most investment.

1. Fibre to the 5G
How to invest in a convergent world?
Fibre to the 5G
15 November 2017
 Frédéric PUJOL
Head of wireless practice
f.pujol@idate.org

2. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 2
5G standardisation accelerating
2016 20172015 20202018 2019 2021
Rel. 16
Requirements definition WS Evaluation
IMT2020 Proposals Submission
WRC
15
WRC
19
Results
IMT2020
Specs.
5G PPP Phase 1
5G PPP Phase 2
1st Drop
NR
5G PPP Phase 3 - Trials
Rel. 15
Rel. 14

3. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 3
5G coming soon
First 5G trials for the Winter Olympics early 2018
Source: KT
KT 5G roadmap

4. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 4
5G services and trials
1 ms - 0.5 ms
15 GHz
28 GHz
70 Gbps
35 Gbps
Fixed wireless access
eMBB Verticals
15-20 Gbps DL
or more close to 1 ms
latency
Very high bands: >10 GHz
2018-19
2019-20 2020-22
Video Automotive, eHealth,
Manufacturing, Smart City
… almost all MNOs
Highest data rates
5G services 5G trials
Most commonly bands trialled
Lowest latency
Source: IDATE DigiWorld
3.4-3.8 GHz

5. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 5
Investment in 5G networks
Access network: how many new cell sites?
▪ Very dense area: 1 km²
 Up to 1 million connected objects
 500 GB per subscriber per month in 2030
▪ Use of mmWave bands: beamforming and massive MIMO
▪ China: 2 or 3 times more cell sites for 5G compared to existing networks
Who will invest in 5G?
▪ Only the MNOs?
▪ Verticals?
▪ New players (tower cos, real estate owners, road & railways
infrastructures…)?
How much?
▪ CAPEX needs for the access network: €150-300 per subscriber
▪ T-Mobile (USA): $25 billion to build a nationwide 5G network
A prototype indoor/outdoor 5G modem for fixed services
Source: Cable Labs
Source: Verizon Wireless
Costs for a 5G fixed access service using mmWave band (Line of Sight)

6. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 6
5G R&D expenses 2016 R&D
5G as 10% of global
R&D
5G as 5% of
Global R&D
5G as 2% of
Global R&D
Infrastructure Vendors
Ericsson 3 378 338 169 68
Nokia (Incl. ALU) 4 904 490 245 98
Huawei 11 060 1 106 553 221
NEC Europe ? 50 25 10
Samsung* 11 247 563 281 112.5
MNOs
British Telecom ? 50 25 10
Deutsche Telekom 4 900 490 245 98
Orange 705 78 39 60
Portugal Telecom ? 7 3 1
TIM 1 900 190 95 38
Telefonica 906 91 45 18
Telenor 67 7 3 1
Test equipment
Keysight Technologies* 384 19 9.5 4
Rohde & Schwartz 288 29 14 6
Chipset
Intel* 11 517 576 288 115
Sequans 24 2 1 0
IT
ATOS ? 29 14 6
IBM 4000 400 200 80
Others
ADVA 24 2 1 0.5
CEA ? 7 3 1
Hewlett Packard Enterprise ? 7 3 1
Thales 736 74 37 15
IHP ? 7 3 1
2016 R&D
5G as 10% of global
R&D
5G as 5% of
Global R&D
5G as 2% of
Global R&D
56 040
4 612 2 302 965
Phase 1 total funding from EC 125 125 125 125
Phase 1 second year funding 70 70 70 70
The players in the table share of EU funding is 40% 40% 40% 40%
Phase 1 second year funding for above mentioned players 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0
Leverage factor 2016** 66 33 14
Leverage factor 2016 for above mentioned players 132 66 28
Assumptions are in italics when R&D expenses are unknown
*: For companies not based in Europe
**: (Phase 1 second year funding) divided by TOTAL 5G PRIVATE R&D SPENDING
5G PRIVATE R&D SPENDING (Million EUR)
TOTAL 5G PRIVATE R&D SPENDING (Million EUR)
▪ 5G PPP funding for phase 1 projects: 70
MEUR
▪ Research projects with a value of
around 30 MEUR per year
▪ Conservative assessment of 2% of the
Global R&D spend being invested in 5G
 leverage factor of 14
Source: Euro-5G

7. Copyright © IDATE 2017, 7
5G forecasts
Source: IDATE DigiWorld
5G subscribers forecasts (million)
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
EU 28 Rest of Europe Americas Asia Rest of the world
5G subscribers breakdown by region in 2025 (%)
EU 28
11%
Rest of
Europe
6%
Americ
as
20%
Asia
58%
Rest
of the
world
5%
Keys to 5G rapid take-off:
▪MNOs ability to invest
▪Vertical markets & B2B models with new players
▪4G performances, 5G complexity
▪Deployment costs of small cells
▪Spectrum: fees, availability date and regulatory
conditions