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Will 3G Networks Cope 2010


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As smartphones and dongles drive unprecedented growth in wireless network traffic, what are the options for mobile network operators and will they be able to cope?

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Will 3G Networks Cope 2010

  1. 1. Will 3G Networks Cope? Dr Mark Heath Dr Alastair Brydon
  2. 2. The big questions addressed ? ? ? By how much will mobile traffic increase? What’s the real capacity of 3G networks? Will 3G networks cope, and what can be done?
  3. 3. Traffic increasing but future unclear <ul><li>Large traffic increases reported </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T: 5000% data traffic increase in 3 years </li></ul><ul><li>O2: 20× increase in data in 12 months </li></ul><ul><li>Unclear future demand & implications </li></ul><ul><li>Carphone Warehouse: mobile broadband has peaked </li></ul><ul><li>Cisco: 3.6 billion GBs per month by 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>Rysavy: demand will outstrip supply by 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>Vodafone: no problem to handle the traffic </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term symptoms </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T: capacity issues in USA </li></ul><ul><li>O2: capacity problems in London </li></ul><ul><li>Critical to understand: </li></ul><ul><li>3G traffic </li></ul><ul><li>3G capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Industry implications </li></ul>
  4. 4. This is just the beginning! Increasing usage of 3G devices indoors Drivers to 3G traffic volumes Penetration of USB modems/data cards Penetration of smartphones Flat-rate bundles, with large usage allowances Changing service mix, towards traffic-intensive services Increasing availability of smartphone applications 3G enhancements Increasing 3G penetration
  5. 5. Increasing traffic intensity of services
  6. 6. 3G traffic will increase by a factor of 20
  7. 7. Real performance of new technology
  8. 8. Capacity per user will decline as 3G penetration increases
  9. 9. Some operators will suffer capacity bottlenecks in 2010
  10. 10. Complementary distribution methods will be essential WLAN Femtocells Voice and data services and content 3G macrocell base stations Mobile broadcasting solutions Indoor systems Sideloading 3G devices
  11. 11. More information at <ul><li>Download our free whitepaper whitepaper.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website. </li></ul>
  12. 12. Implications for the wireless industry <ul><li>Enormous challenges to provide the capacity, coverage and cost base needed - CAPEX per network will increase </li></ul><ul><li>Different network operators in different markets face very different challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Widespread need for spectrum, base stations, LTE, GSM close-down, femtocells, WiFi offloading and sideloading </li></ul><ul><li>Network sharing or consolidation may be the only profitable solution for many </li></ul><ul><li>Massive networks provide opportunity for equipment vendors, but consolidation will require them to pick the winning operators </li></ul><ul><li>Femtocells/WiFi offload open the door to new competitors for equipment vendors </li></ul>
  13. 13. More information on <ul><li>Download our free whitepaper whitepaper.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website. </li></ul>