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IDATE DigiWorld - From LTE to 5G keypoints

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Key points

From mobile voice to mobile everywhere7
1. LTE global success

LTE subscriptionsdistribution (Q4 2017 –Q4 2021)9

Breakdown of mobile customers by country and technology, end-20169

China Mobile LTE capexand LTE coverage10

Outdoor LTE coverage10

≥ 500 Mbps LTE-Advanced networks launched11

MNOs ranking by subscriber numbers, end-June 201712

Subscriber numbers in leading countries12

5G usage scenarios13

5G Performance Objectives14
2. 5G

5G timeline16

5G subscribers by region in 202517

5G subscribers forecasts17

5G widespread technology enablers18

Three scenarions for 5G monetisation, MNO’s view19
3. More spectrum for LTE upgrades and 5G

IMT bands, below 6 GHz22

IMT bands, above 6 GHz23

Potential5G bands worldwidein the 20-45 GHz range24

Price of premium licences/spectrum per MHz per pop., for 10 years25

Price of 700 MHz licences/spectrum per MHz per pop., for 10 years25

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IDATE DigiWorld - From LTE to 5G keypoints

  1. 1. This document is a part of our “Wireless 4G and 5G" service which includes in 2017: - A dataset in Excel, updated twice yearly - A state-of-the-art report in PowerPoint, updated twice yearly - Six market reports in Word, each with its synthesis in PowerPoint - Privileged access to our lead analysts Wireless 4G & 5G From LTE to 5G Markets – Players – Technologies – Spectrum M17410SR2A – December 2017 – Status Report
  2. 2. Copyright IDATE DigiWorld 2017, CS 94167, 34092 Montpellier Cedex 5, France - All rights reserved. None of the contents of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, including electronically, without the prior written permission of IDATE. IDATE, DigiWorld, DigiWorld Institute and DigiWorld Yearbook are the international registered trademarks of IDATE. IDATE DigiWorld Research Programme: Innovative market watch More information: Isabel Jiménez, +33(0)467144404 – research@idate.org Digital Telcos Global tracking of key Internet services, and insights into the challenges facing the telcos. FTTx & Gigabit Proud provider of 10 years of benchmark analysis for the global superfast access market. Wireless 4G & 5G After having launched one of the first LTE market watch services, we are looking ahead to 5G and its applications. Internet of Things A pioneer in M2M and IoT markets, today we are exploring how IoT will impact vertical sectors. Future TV & Video In this fast-changing market, we are using our unique expertise in TV to explain every facet of the OTT migration. DigiWorld Watch An annual watch service that provides a valuable addition to our five core market watches, giving you analyst briefings and expert reports on the latest news in emerging technologies & innovative strategies: NGN plans, DigitalChina, Video Game, ArtificialIntelligence… An IDATE Senior Consultant since October 2000, Carole is in charge of monitoring the world’s mobile markets, operator (networks, MVNO) and mobile services development particularly in LTE. She has also become an expert in spectrum management issues. Before coming to IDATE, Carole worked for the AREVA North American corporate strategy department, where she was involved in several acquisition operations in the nuclear sector. Ms. Manero holds a MS in marketing/finance (EDHEC Business School, Lille, 1991). She also holds a MS in Human Resources and Corporate Management (ESCP, Europe Business School, 1992). c.manero@idate.org Author: Carole MANERO, Research & Project Manager Contributors : Pierre VOISIN, Consultant Frédéric PUJOL, Head of Wireless Practice Editorial note: This document makes extensive use of verified external sources of data. The reader may thus find the same type of data being described with differing spellings, depending on original sources or location of cases. This is notably the case with ‘licence’ and ‘license’ which are used here interchangeably.
  3. 3. www.idate.org © IDATE DigiWorld 2017 – p. 3 Key points 5 Key take-aways 6 1980-2020: 40 years of mobile generations 7 1. LTE global success 8 1.1. LTE is mature and mainstream, pushing 2G/3G shut down by 2025 9 1.2. 4G migration continues: players’ push to increase pop.coverage 10 1.3. Players’ push to increase LTE performances and define 5G 11 1.4. LTE technology increasingly widespreading, subscriber growth in its full swing in emerging countries 12 1.5. LTE upgrades allowed new services 13 1.6. 5G: Transformation for all 14 2. 5G: transformation for all 15 2.1. 5G expected in 2020-2021, mainstream in 2023 16 2.2. 5G expected in 2018-2019 in the USA and Asia, 2020 in Europe at the earliest 17 2.3. 5G mainstream in 2023 18 2.4. 5G widespread technology enablers 19 2.5. Operators still cautious on 5G business model 3. More spectrum for LTE upgrades and 5G: Spectrum, the lifeblood for mobile networks 20 3.1. Operation in multiple frequency bands is key in LTE 21 3.2. All frequency bands harnessed for LTE and potentially 5G, below 6 GHz 22 3.3. All frequency bands harnessed for 5G, above 6 GHz: focus on medium 23 3.4. Potential 5G bands worldwide in the 20-45 GHz range, waiting for WRC-19 24 3.5. The spectrum burden, another cloud in the 5G business model? 25 Glossary 26 About IDATE DigiWorld 28 Contents
  4. 4. www.idate.org © IDATE DigiWorld 2017 – p. 4 Key points • From mobile voice to mobile everywhere 7 1. LTE global success • LTE subscriptions distribution (Q4 2017 – Q4 2021) 9 • Breakdown of mobile customers by country and technology, end-2016 9 • China Mobile LTE capex and LTE coverage 10 • Outdoor LTE coverage 10 • ≥ 500 Mbps LTE-Advanced networks launched 11 • MNOs ranking by subscriber numbers, end-June 2017 12 • Subscriber numbers in leading countries 12 • 5G usage scenarios 13 • 5G Performance Objectives 14 2. 5G • 5G timeline 16 • 5G subscribers by region in 2025 17 • 5G subscribers forecasts 17 • 5G widespread technology enablers 18 • Three scenarions for 5G monetisation, MNO’s view 19 3. More spectrum for LTE upgrades and 5G • IMT bands, below 6 GHz 22 • IMT bands, above 6 GHz 23 • Potential 5G bands worldwide in the 20-45 GHz range 24 • Price of premium licences/spectrum per MHz per pop., for 10 years 25 • Price of 700 MHz licences/spectrum per MHz per pop., for 10 years 25 Figures
  5. 5. Key points www.idate.org
  6. 6. www.idate.org © IDATE DigiWorld 2017 – p. 6 Key take-aways With the 4th mobile generation aka LTE, mobile broadband has become a reality in most world’s regions Maturity has been reached in advanced countries therefore LTE will be superseded by 5G in 5 years’ time 5G will finally emerge in 2018 at the earliest and be mainstream in 2023 at a crossroad between technological progress and demanding user needs 5G is expected to require massive investments. How much? Can operators really afford it? The 5G promise will be around significantly improved performances ATAWAD, including very high data rates but not only. 5G will be about offering a wide range of new applications, types of devices suggesting that business models and offers should evolve and address vertical sectors 5G needs spectrum within three key frequency ranges (sub-1GHz, <6 GHz, >6 GHz) How to deliver UHB outside hotspots’ reach? Increased spectrum complexity may be another cloud in the picture…and reinforce MNOs’ cautious attitude on 5G business models
  7. 7. www.idate.org © IDATE DigiWorld 2017 – p. 7 1980-2020: 40 years of mobile generations From mobile voice to mobile everywhere • Mobile voice connecting people • To mobile ATAWAD unlimited connected People and Things 2G ~1980 ~1990 ~2000 ~2010 ~2020 1G 3G 4G 5G GSM, IS-95, D-AMPSNMT, AMPS, TACS W-CDMA, UMTS CDMA1x EV-DO LTE ? 2.4 Kbps 64 Kbps 384 Kbps 100 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps Voice and textVoice Mobile data Mobile broadband Anything Anywhere Anytime, Unlimited 10 years by mobile generation Gigabit LTE Multi-Gigabits 5G Source: IDATE DigiWorld, State of World LTE Markets, December 2017

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