DTC and the Next 5 Years
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This document discusses the top 5 trends for direct-to-consumer wine sales over the next 5 years and how wineries can prepare. The trends are: 1) personalization will be key as customers want personalized experiences; 2) 20% of sales will be global as customers look outside their own country; 3) mobile revenue will overtake desktop as customers do more on their phones; 4) delivery will be expected within 2 days or less as customers demand faster shipping; and 5) wine clubs will evolve to be more customizable to keep up with changing customer preferences. The document provides examples of how other companies are addressing these trends and recommends specific actions wineries can take to prepare.
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DTC and the Next 5 Years
- 1. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 2. Hello, my name is Andrew Kamphuis
- 3. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 5. Wine DTC 2008-2016 2008 34 States 2016 44 States “Source: Maryland DTC Report”
- 6. Wine DTC 2010-2015 8.72% 91.28% 10.19% 89.81% 2010 2015 “Source: ShipCompliant, Wine Institute, Gomberg Fredrikson”
- 8. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 9. Online Retail 2010-2015 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 34 billion 40 billion 48 billion 54 billion 61 billion 69 billion 79 billion “Source: http://www.practicalecommerce.com/articles/92465-4-Predictions-for-2015-Holiday-Shopping-Season”
- 10. Wine Is At A Tipping Point
- 11. Millennials Are Becoming Affluent DTC Wine Tipping Point
- 12. Buying Direct And Online Is Growing DTC Wine Tipping Point
- 13. Wine Internet Retailers DTC Wine Tipping Point
- 14. Wine Being Sold Online Is Small DTC Wine Tipping Point Wine Apparel Electronics Books General Retail 3% 14% 35% 74% 9% It’s easy to see this doubling or tripling “Source: Wine Institute, SVB Tasting Room Survey, and ShipCompliant ”
- 15. DTC and the Next 5 Years 5 Changes in 5 Years
- 16. Wine Clubs Are Dying Long Live The Modern Wine Club #1
- 17. Your Wine Club
- 18. Sign Up Process Your Wine Club
- 19. Frequency Your Wine Club February May DecemberOctober
- 20. 20% Off All Wine 10% Off All Non-Wine Reduced Shipping Rates Yearly Wine Club Party Benefits Your Wine Club
- 21. Lets Look At Some Modern Clubs
- 23. Sign Up Process Dollar Shave Club
- 24. Sign Up Process Dollar Shave Club
- 25. Sign Up Process Dollar Shave Club
- 26. Sign Up Process Dollar Shave Club
- 28. Upgrade Options Dollar Shave Club
- 29. Dollar Shave Club Launched 2012 2 Million Members Valuation: $500+ Million “Source: http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/22/dollar-shave-club-raises-75mm-to-fend-off-gillette-and-harrys/”
- 30. Blue Apron
- 31. Sign Up Process Blue Apron
- 32. Sign Up Process Blue Apron
- 33. Sign Up Process Blue Apron
- 34. Sign Up Process Blue Apron
- 35. Sign Up Process Blue Apron
- 39. Blue Apron Launched 2012 3 Million Meals Per Month Valuation: $2 Billion “Source: http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/09/blue-apron-cooks-up-135-million-in-series-d-funding/#.3amcp1:qxZk”
- 40. Club W
- 41. Sign Up Process Club W
- 42. Sign Up Process Club W
- 43. Sign Up Process Club W
- 44. Sign Up Process Club W
- 45. Sign Up Process Club W
- 46. Sign Up Process Club W
- 47. Marketing Club W
- 50. The Next 5 Years Of Wine Club
- 51. Needs To Be Personal The Next 5 Years of Wine Club
- 52. Users Want Choice The Next 5 Years of Wine Club Join White Club Join Red Club
- 53. Instant Gratification The Next 5 Years of Wine Club
- 54. Reorder When Needed The Next 5 Years of Wine Club
- 55. Informative Reorder Process The Next 5 Years of Wine Club
- 56. Change/ Remove Shipments Online The Next 5 Years of Wine Club
- 57. What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 58. Start A User Choice Club What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 59. Pre-Shipment Emails What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 60. Make Marketing Fun What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 61. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 62. Personalization Rules Wow The Customer Or Perish #2
- 63. Your Website
- 64. Repeat Visitor
- 65. Club Member
- 66. Red Wine Lover
- 67. White Wine Lover
- 68. Amazon.com
- 69. Your Email
- 70. Amazon.com Email
- 75. It Gets Results
- 76. Millennials Are Your Next Customer
- 77. Next 5 Years Of Personalization
- 84. Make Customers Feel Like More Than A Number
- 86. What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 87. Say Hello What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 88. Dynamic Homepage What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 89. Smart Call To Action What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 90. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 91. 20% Of Your Sales Will Be Global Look Outside Your Own Backyard #3
- 92. Tasting Room Customers “Source: http://www.visitnapavalley.com/press-release-visit-napa-valley-releases-the-2014-napa-valley-visitor- industry-economic-impact-report-and-visitor-profile-121.htm ” 86% 14%
- 96. Global Consumers Value USA Brands Current Global Ecommerce
- 97. Are From Outside The USA Current Global Ecommerce “Source: ”“Source: http://multichannelmerchant.com/global-ecommerce-meeting-challenges-growing-opportunities” 46% Of Amazon Sales
- 98. 24% Of Purchases Are Made With Retailers Outside Of Their Own Country Current Global Ecommerce “Source: http://multichannelmerchant.com/global-ecommerce-meeting-challenges-growing-opportunities”
- 99. Ecommerce Growth Current Global Ecommerce Image Source: Trellis“Source: http://multichannelmerchant.com/global-ecommerce-meeting-challenges-growing-opportunities” 15% 26%
- 100. Challenges In Global Ecommerce
- 101. Compliance Challenges in Global Ecommerce
- 102. Shipping Challenges in Global Ecommerce
- 103. Payment Processing Challenges in Global Ecommerce
- 104. Lack Of Experience Challenges in Global Ecommerce
- 105. Challenges Can Be Overcome
- 106. Opus One
- 107. Next 5 Years Of Global Ecommerce
- 108. Logistic Solutions
- 109. Technology Evolving
- 110. Increased Education
- 111. Foreign Competition
- 112. China is the Largest Opportunity 94.2%
- 113. What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 114. Start Small What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 115. Focus On Your Top Performer What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 116. Find A 3rd-Party Provider What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 117. Don't Forget What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 118. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 119. Mobile Revenue Will Overtake Desktop #4
- 120. 2015 DTC Traffic 35% of website traffic 5% of sales
- 121. General Retail Stats Almost 1/3 of sales are mobile “Source: https://www.internetretailer.com/2015/08/18/mobile-commerce-now-30-all-us-e-commerce”
- 122. General Retail Stats Mobile Ecommerce “Source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Happy-Holiday-Season-Expected-Retailers/1012898” 32% 14% General Ecommerce
- 123. General Retail Stats Mobile sales exceed desktop “Source: http://marketingland.com/black-friday-weekend-e-commerce-thinned-crowds-mobile-devices-drove-traffic-153761” BLACK FRIDAY
- 124. Micro Session is the New Norm
- 126. While You Wait At The Dentist
- 128. When SFO Has Yet Another Delay
- 129. Information At Your Fingertips
- 130. Next 5 Years Of Mobile Ecommerce
- 131. Millennials Will Buy Wine With Their Phones
- 132. Mobile Revenue Will Overtake Desktop Revenue
- 134. What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 135. Responsive Site What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 136. Remove Barriers What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 137. Focus On Speed What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 138. Call To Action What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 139. Study Ecommerce Leaders What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 140. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 141. Delivery - 2 Days Or Less Fast, Flexible and Free #5
- 142. Your Current Shipping Solution
- 143. 5-7 Day Delivery Your Current Shipping Solution
- 144. Weather Holds Your Current Shipping Solution
- 145. Line Haul – 3 Weeks Your Current Shipping Solution
- 148. Your Competitors Solution Club W 2 Day FedEx HAL
- 149. Your Competitors Solution Naked Wine Same Day DoorMan FedEx HAL
- 150. Your Competitors Solution Amazon 1 Hour Delivery
- 152. Consumer Expectations Delivery When They Want It 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
- 154. Consumer Expectations Better Return Options “Image Source: Shyp”
- 155. Next 5 Years Of Delivery
- 156. “Image Source: The Blaze” Real Time Delivery
- 157. Delivery As Competitive Advantage
- 158. What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 159. Estimated Delivery What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 160. Tracking What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 161. Tracking Emails What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 162. Ship Quickly What Can You Do Today To Prepare?
- 163. DTC and the Next 5 Years Top 5 Trends and How To Prepare Now
- 164. Conclusion
- 165. Wine Is Not Special
- 166. Push the Ecomm Bar
- 167. Push the Fulfillment Bar
Editor's Notes
- Hello, my name is Andrew Kamphuis. Many of you know me from being the founder of Vin65 and more recently the president of WineDirect.
- Today we are talking about Direct to Consumer wine sales and the next 5 years. What do I predict as the next 5 years?
- Predicting the next 5 years is tough. I don’t have a crystal ball – but I do have some ideas.
- Let’s look at Wine over the last 8 years. 8 Years Ago Wine Was Sold in 34 States – today we can go direct to consumer in 44 states thanks to people like Free the Grapes.
- DTC was less than 9% of Sales – Wholesale was the other 91%. Today DTC has grown to above 10%.
- I remember in 2010 a lot of winery websites – you had to download order forms. Today 5 years later, almost all wineries have online shopping carts and sell online.
- Today we are talking about Direct to Consumer wine sales and the next 5 years.
- Over the last 5 years this is how ecommerce has grown and the world is being drawn to shopping online.
- Today we believe that wine is at a tipping point and over the next 5 years it will go big. Here’s a few things to consider.
- Millennials are becoming more affluent - and they place a large focus of buying online and they are shunning large brands to discover unique brands. This trend is starting to spill over into wine.
- Buying Direct and Online is growing. Amazon, Zappos, etc are paving the way.
- Naked Wines, Club W, Wine Insiders, Drinks, etc are all setting the bar and wineries will follow.
- Wine being sold online is such a small percentage. Today 3% of wine is sold online. 14% for apparel. 35% of electronics. 74% for books. General merchandise is 9%. It’s easy to see that wine can double or triple.
- So – let’s get to it. Here are 5 Things you need to do in the next 5 Years.
- Okay point #1 – this is going to be controversial – but it needs to be said. Wine Clubs as you know them today are dying – and there will be a new way to do a wine club. Let’s look at your wine club today.
- Here’s your club - it’s 6 bottles of red only.
- You have some kind of basic signup process. It’s often paper based and you enter into some backend system. You might have an online form.
- It ships 4 times a year - Feb, May, Oct and December. You’ve designed it around releases and weather.
- Members get some basic benefits. 20% off all wine purchases and 10% off all non wine purchases. Members get a reduced shipping rate and they get one party a year.
- Let’s look at some modern clubs
- This is Dollar Shave Club. Who here has heard of them? A great shave for a few bucks a month.
- Let’s walk thru the signup process – it starts off where the customer gets a choice of blades.
- From there the customer selects from multiple extras.
- Finally the customer finishes up with a very simple form
- And the customer enters their billing address.
- Now let’s look at some of the marketing they do. Dollar Shave Club sends me this nice email every month – they let me know when my next shipment is coming. They let me know what’s coming. And they let me upgrade items really easily – right from the email.
- Let’s look at a few other things they do. Dollar Shave club let’s you control the frequency. By default it’s awesome – they send me 4 blades every 4 weeks and every Monday I start with a new blade. It’s a great way to start the week. They let you try a different razor. They let you pause your membership. They even let you cancel your membership online.
- Let’s look at how Dollar Shave Club is doing?
- Next modern club to look at is Blue Apron. Blue Apron is “a better way to cook” and they send you fresh ingredients to your door weekly.
- Let’s walk thru the signup process with Blue Apron. You enter an email address and zip code.
- You then select the size and frequency of your delivery.
- From there the customer is presented with a ton of choices. I get to select my dietary preferences, and day of the week for my first shipment.
- From there it’s a very simple shipping information.
- Followed by my payment information.
- The marketing you get from Bue Apron is great. They send you receipes, let you know about your delivery etc.
- At anytime I can login – I can alter my meal plan, change my selection, change my delivery date.
- And of course I can cancel or pause my delivery at anytime.
- Let’s look at how Blue Apron is doing.
- Let’s take this a little closer to home. Let’s look at a modern wine club – Club W
- Let’s look at the signup process. They start you off by taking a quiz.- and they ask you about coffee.
- The quiz continues asking about Salt.
- They ask you about citrus – they ask you 3 more questions – it feels like they are going to “hand select” the wine for you so you get exactly what you want.
- After the quiz – it’s a simple signup option.
- They show you the wines that are hand selected for you. If you scroll down this page you can add a few more wines to your box.
- From there it’s a simple checkout option. Enter shipping and billing.
- The email you get from Club W is great. They constantly show you whats coming in your next shipment. If you leave items in the cart they hit you up. They offer your friends discounts to join, etc.
- On your account at anytime you can login. You can control your selections you are getting.
- If you want more than three bottles, you can just choose and add more to your box.
- So where are wine clubs going? As an industry we need to be looking at these modern clubs as the example. Dollar Shave Club, Birch Box, Blue Apron, etc are all setting the bar. If your not a member of them – I really encourage you to join. Here’s what your customers need:
- Your club needs to feel personal. The products that are being shipped – they have to be selected for me. I have to feel like this is completely personal during the signup process.
- Your users want choice. They want to be able to select what they want in their club shipment.
- Your club members want instant gratification. First shipment needs to come instantly. I don’t want to sign up and wait 1, 2 or 3 months for a club shipment. I don’t want to wait 7 days or 2 weeks. I want it within 1-2 days.
- Users want wine when they run out – the reorder date should make sense based on customers replenishment needs – it’s not based on weather or releases. It should refresh on their schedule – how about a bottle of wine a week – you ship me 4 bottles every 4 weeks.
- I should get an email before the club goes out. I should be able to add to the shipment, mix, match, etc.
- I should be able to cancel online. I should be able to skip a shipment. I should be able to change frequency. I should be able to do this myself without calling the winery.
- So that’s the next five years. Vin65’s technology won’t let you do this yet. I don’t know of any technology that will do this yet. But what can you as a winery sitting here do today to prepare. BTW see this pencil – when you see this pencil write it down – you will be able to go home and execute today.
- Start a user choice club. Fulfillment will hate you, but you gotta do it. Let your customers select the wine going into their club.
- Send emails out to your members before you ship to them. Let them upgrade their selection. Let them pause this shipment. Get shipment upon signup, availability to cancel/skip a shipment, etc
- Make your marketing fun. I belong to 9 wine clubs. Twisted Oak has some fun emails – but most of the other clubs have very boring emails. Get a fun email out to me. Wineries complain that their members don’t read their emails – make me want to read it.
- Okay so we are talking DTC and the next 5 years. Prediction #1 was that WineClubs are going to change. Prediction #2 is:
- Personalization will rule. Your customer wants a wow experience – that’s dedicated directly to them. Lets’ look at what your doing today.
- Let’s look at your website. This is your homepage today.
- Now pretend I’m a repeat visitor – this is your homepage.
- No pretend I’m your best customer – a club member – this is your homepage.
- You have a great CRM system – you know I love Red Wine – this is your homepage.
- This is your same homepage as seen by a white Wine Lover
- Let’s compare this to Amazon. Here’s the homepage of Amazon - it says hi to me - it shows me the products that I want - it shows me the everything that I want to see. It’s targeted to me and my buying habits. It’s new school – and should be what your winery website does.
- Here is the email I get from you as a winery - it’s the same email if I’m a club member, if I’m a first time buyer, if I like reds or if I like whites. Most of the time, it doesn’t use your personal brand language in it. Pretty standard.
- Here the email from Amazon - it shows me the products I want, and gives me suggestions to buy more of what I like.
- Here’s the schedule for most wineries – everyone gets the same email on the same day – your newsletter shows up based on the marketers schedule
- Amazon sends the email based on a behavior. These abandoned cart emails have great recapture rates – it’s a one-click add to cart and checkout.
- So Why Personalize. What’s personalization got to do with the next 5 years.
- People are more egotistical than ever - you have to give them what they want. The next generation of customers - Millennials are “self-absorbed”. While its not flattering all customers are becoming this way.
- Personalization gets results. Consumers love it when a website simply seems to “get” them Recommended products get 73% more clicks. Recommended products generate 46% more revenue. Personalized email generates on average 6x more revenue than non-personal email It increases conversion rate
- Personalization is key - but if you want to win millennials - personalization is a must. Millennials want to know a company is paying attention to it’s needs Millennials - 46% would be willing to provide more data to businesses if it meant they didn’t have to see irrelevant offers
- So what’s the next 5 years of personalization?
- You are going to be able track user activity everywhere.. I know it sounds creepy but today retailers use previous visits, search terms, items you looked at, purchase history to look serve up personal content
- Your site is going to get real-time modifications based on who the user is.
- If they enter your site thru a specific adword campaign we can redirect them to the proper page
- Feature products viewed during previous session
- Email content plus frequency is going to be tailored to the individual.
- In the future - every aspect of the user experience becomes tailored to the tastes, tendencies, and behaviors of each customer. You will use multiple types of visitor interactions including purchases, what they view on mobile, email clicks, etc to drive the right product.
- Your going to be able to delivery on a one-to-one promise.
- Set up a user-choice club.
- Say hello - tell the buyer you know who they are - wouldn’t you prefer to buy from someone who knows your name? This tool is available in Vin65 today.
- Show me what I want to see. I like red wine – this site shows me a Merlot as a featured product. This is available on Vin65 in Base3 today.
- The carrot engine messages you based on buying behavior. Play around with the carrot engine.
- So we are talking about DTC and the next 5 years: Prediction #1 – there will be a new club model emerging Personalization is going to rule What’s #3?
- Here’s a picture of the world - and where your visitors to your tasting room are coming from (http://www.visitnapavalley.com/press-release-visit-napa-valley-releases-the-2014-napa-valley-visitor-industry-economic-impact-report-and-visitor-profile-121.htm)
- Here’s a picture of the world and where your website sells to
- By only serving USA - you're missing 13.6% of your current traffic. This is only going to increase.
- Let’s take a quick look at Global Ecommerce and what’s going on.
- Customers value USA brands.
- 46% of Amazon Sales are outside of the USA
- Buyers outside of the US – like Canada, etc - 24% of purchases are made with retailers outside of their own country. As a Canadian I’ve order products from China and other countries.
- Ecommerce Growth is 15% in USA. 26% Worldwide.
- There are a lot of challenges in Global Ecommerce. You may hit some brick walls getting your wine to other countries
- You have this nasty little problem called compliance – and alcohol importation is regulated.
- Shipping a bottle of wine overseas isn’t easy.
- People from around the world want to pay you in a different currency.
- You might have a complete lack of experience.
- Challenges can be overcome -
- Today Opus One sells to 22 different countries and offers their website in 4 different languages – so I know that internationalization is possible.
- Over the next 5 years we will see more and more logicistal solutions. FedEx already accommodates a lot of international shipments. 3rd party services like Gliding Eagle will appear to help you transport wine into foreign countries.
- Technology is constantly evolving. Most ecomm platforms where developed for the US market. Today on our platform at Vin65 we use resource bundles to handle translation. We can serve up multiple currencies and we can accommodate foreign payment. As technology progresses over the next 5 years regulations, customs, etc will be accommodated in technology solutions.
- Millenials have a great world view. There is an increased understanding among consumers and amoung your staff about how to serve global markets. The common thinking today is to Think Global and Act Local. Every country has it’s own set of rules, regulations, and customs and people are becoming educated on that.
- Unfortunately foreign competition is increasing. Australian wineries are going after the China market. French wines are going after the China market. As you start to go after global markets you will face larger competition.
- China will be the biggest opportunity for DTC wine. Over the last 5 years China ecomm has grown 94.2% (from 2010-2015) and it’s going to get bigger. The Chinese consumers are becoming more affluent and are visiting US wineries and getting a taste for US wine.
- Start small on a limited basis. Pick a single country to ship into. If you think about trying to hit every country you will not succeed.
- Pick one country and focus on it.
- Think Global act Local Use the customers currency and language Make sure you provide payment and shipping options that are native to the customer Don’t forget the small stuff - Focus on tracking, visibility, returns, and weather holds
- So we are talking about DTC and the next 5 years: Prediction #1 – there will be a new club model emerging Personalization is going to rule 20% of your sales will come for global.
- 35% of website traffic is mobile, but only 5% of ecomm sales Room for growth
- Mobile – 29.7% of sales
- Mobile Ecommerce Rose by 32% while general ecommerce rose by 14.2%
- Mobile – 29.7% of sales Wine needs to grow Black Friday – Mobile exceeds web Mobile Ecommerce Rose by 32% while general ecommerce rose by 14.2%
- Mobile people have short attention spans and sessions occur throughout the day as they commute, wait, etc
- You got 3 minutes to use your phone while you wait at the Dentist
- Micro sessions are the new norm.
- Millennials are the largest group of smartphone owners. Today 9 in 10 millennials own a smart phone - compared to only 71 percent of the total population
- Demand on retailers to create seamless shopping experiences. You will be able to jump between mobile and desktop without losing your spot.
- Having a responsive site isn’t a competitive advantage – it’s a must.
- Remove all the barriers. If you have an age gate – remove it.
- Focus on speed. Avoid user form input (1 click checkout). Streamline information entry
- Put your call to actions front and center.
- Compare your mobile site to Zappos and Amazon
- So we are talking about DTC and the next 5 years: Prediction #1 – there will be a new club model emerging Personalization is going to rule 20% of your sales will come for global. 4) Mobile will overtake Desktop
- Consumers expect in-store, same day pickup, same day delivery, better return options
- It wont be mainstream but Someone is going to provide real time delivery - you can walk in a park and have a drone delivery you something
- Tell Customers When their package will arrive
- Give customers a tracking number immediately after they place an order
- Use tracking emails to sell more
- Forward Stage Inventory Promise to ship products within a short amount of time
- So we are talking about DTC and the next 5 years: Prediction #1 – there will be a new club model emerging Personalization is going to rule 20% of your sales will come for global. 4) Mobile will overtake Desktop 5) Delivery in 2 days or less.
- Normally I’d conclude with all the key points - but that’s not what I want to do today I’m leaving WineDirect - so this is probably the last time I get to stand up and say something I got 3 things for you for the future:
- Wine is not special. Stop thinking you're selling something special. Look at Amazon, Zappos, etc. Join a modern club.
- We’ve come a long way but we got a long way to go. Keep pushing your ecomm vendors. Keep pushing my company Vin65. Don’t ask for one more report and one more column - ask them to do something bigger. Get them to build new club functionality. Get them to work with more global partners. Ask them for a one click mobile checkout.
- Continue to push the bar with your fulfillment house. Don’t ask WineDirect to come up with a weather hold solution. Instead ask them how to get their prices down so you can do two day air over the summer. Ask them to forward stage inventory in the East. Ask them for flat rate shipping nation wide.
- I love you. I love wine. This presentation deck will be available on the Vin65 blog and on SlideShare tomorrow morning.