An easily digestible snapshot of important trends impacting ecommerce fraud prevention around the holidays.

1. Annual Holiday
Fraud Index
FraudAttackRate
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
Fraud Attacks by Market Segment One Year Post EMV
Apparel Cosmetics Electronics Entertainment Home Jewelry Shoes Sporting
Goods
2015 2016
TREND 1
Card-Not-Present fraud garners the largest share of
eCommerce fraud with fraud attack rates increasing in
nearly every market segment.
Since EMV’s launch in October 2015, Radial has seen on average a 30%
increase in online fraud attacks across its client base, with the steepest
increase occurring in the Electronics, Entertainment and Jewelry market
segments. Home and Sporting Goods are impacted the least, though
still a target.
APAC is Ripe for Cross-Border eCommerce Sales
0.00%
Apparel
C
osm
etics
ElectronicsEntertainm
ent
H
om
e
Jew
elry
ShoesSporting
G
oods
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
Total eCommerce that are Cross-Border Cross-Border Sales that are China, Japan and Korea
Data from Radial's Cross-Border eCommerce Fraud report shows
China, Japan, and Korea account for nearly 50% of cross-border
eCommerce sales in the Cosmetics and Home market segments.
Additionally, Korea and China top the list for cross-border sales during
the holiday season, accounting for more than 78% of sales among the
top five cross-border countries.
TREND 5
Digital gift card attack rates soar for some billing and
shipping domains and payment tenders during
the holidays.
Outlook.com and Discover can be red flags for fraudulent gift card
orders with attack rates hovering around 200% higher than their
nearest competitor.
TREND 3
Cross-border attack rates drop significantly on
Cyber Monday.
Data shows that retailers can be approving up to 98.59% of
cross-border orders on Cyber Monday–a sales figure that surpassed
$3.8 million for Radial clients last year. Cross-border attack rates
dropped over 33% on Cyber Monday compared to the rest of the
holiday season, giving retailers an opportunity to tap into cross-border
sales on one of the season’s busiest days. However, many retailers are
still diagnosing too much cross-border fraud, and losing
out on millions.
Digital gift card fraud attacks are 10X more likely compared to other
delivery methods during the holidays. That jumps to almost 25X the
week after Christmas. Even fraudsters take a break on Christmas Day,
when attack rates hit a seasonal low. Attack rates also dropped on
Cyber Monday, and Free Shipping Day, but spiked the day
before each.
98.59% Order
Approval Rates
$3.8M+ Sales 33% Decrease in
Fraud Attack Rates
TREND 4
Digital gift card fraud spikes after December 25.
TREND 2
Some cross-border countries represent greater risk
while others offer higher sales potential.
Radial’s 2015 holiday season eCommerce attack rates provide
merchants with insight into geographies that pose the greatest and
least risk along with the potential for higher order conversions.
Venezuela has the highest cross-border eCommerce attack rate at
17.04%, while the U.S. Virgin Islands has one of the lowest at 0.06%, as
well as the highest order approval rates at 99.77%.
Highest Attack Rates
Venezuela 17.04%
Ghana 11.68%
Nigeria 6.90%
Angola 6.73%
Russia 5.00%
Lowest Attack Rates
United Arab
Emirates
0.05%
U.S. Virgin
Islands
0.06%
Guam 0.07%
Guam 99.65%
Turkey 0.09%
Antigua &
Barbuda
0.16%
Highest Order
Approval Rates
Puerto Rico 99.71%
Italy 99.69%
Kuwait 99.68%
U.S. Virgin
Islands
99.77%
Digital Gift Card Attack Rates
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
22-Nov
23-Nov
24-Nov
25-Nov
26-Nov
27-Nov
28-Nov
29-Nov
30-Nov
1-Dec
2-Dec
3-Dec
4-Dec
5-Dec
6-Dec
7-Dec
8-Dec
9-Dec
10-Dec
11-Dec
12-Dec
13-Dec
14-Dec
15-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec
20-Dec
21-Dec
22-Dec
23-Dec
24-Dec
25-Dec
26-Dec
27-Dec
28-Dec
29-Dec
30-Dec
31-Dec
1-Jan
2-Jan
Attack Rate
Email Domain Attack Rates
AOL.com Gmail.com Hotmail.com Outlook.com Yahoo.com
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
Billing Only Billing and Shipping
3.80%
14.46%
3.82%
5.51%
3.16% 4.34%
20.36%
41.56%
2.07%
5.04%
Digital Gift Card Attack Rates by Tender
0.00%
AMEX
Discover
MasterCard
Visa
PayPal
2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00%
TREND 6
IP locations and credit card BIN countries carry
different risk factors for digital gift card purchases.
Credit card BIN and IP country matter when accessing risk. Colombia‘s
BIN and IP address shows an attack rate of more than 20% for digital
gift card purchases. When Mexico is the BIN country, digital gift card
attack rates exceed 27%.
Credit Card BIN Country Attack Rate
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Mexico
27.50%
24.00%
20.81%
16.13%
9.68%
Colombia France Brazil Korea
IP Country Attack Rate
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Colombia
22.22%
17.82%
15.63%
12.82%
9.57%
France Netherlands China Mexico
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