1. H O T W I R E R E P O R T
The scale of the
Indian outage and its
consequences are a
window into what a
catastrophic power failure
in the United States might
look like.
Author: Luciano Carafano, Associate Analyst
India recently suffered through what has been called one of the “biggest
blackouts in world history” – leaving some 600 million, or nearly half, of its 1.2
billion residents without power.1
The power outage spread across the north-
ern districts of the sub-continent on Monday, July 30th, afflicting businesses,
residents, and commuters alike.2
Tuesday, July 31st, saw a second major power
grid failure in as many days, after three electricity grids failed. Indians were
faced with no electricity in sweltering temperatures (90 degrees Fahrenheit,
with 89 percent humidity on Monday), hospitals and airports forced to turn
to backup generators, commuters stuck on mass transit (in New Delhi’s case,
nearly four hours) and businesses forced to shutter due to lack of power to run
services and industry.3,4
While a blackout of similar causes is unlikely in the United States, the scale of
the outage and its consequences are a window into what a catastrophic power
failure in the United States might look like. This type of catastrophic event is a
possibility that cannot be ignored in any nation that is reliant on a power grid.
Fortunately, several lessons can be drawn from the Indian experience that may
be of value in responding to similar catastrophic failure of the power grid in the
United States.
Value of personal resilience and experience
Indians daily experience with power outages and the unpredictable nature of
their power grid may have mitigated the effects of this event somewhat. Regular
outages have conditioned average Indians for short-term disruptions in power
as part of their daily lives, leading many of them to make preparations. Con-
versely, in the United States, there is a lack of individual preparation for such
an event among individuals. While there are a variety of public initiatives, a
large amount of information and significant planning from the local to federal
agency level, there has been little effort seen in form of individual protection
and practice for a major power-loss event.5
Promoting individual resilience
prior to a catastrophic event is increasingly important as the nation grows more
reliant on electricity – allowing individuals to promote their own life preserva-
tion and safety while national, state and local responders spin up to a response.
What the Indian blackout means
to the United States
CENTER FOR RESPONSE & SECURITY LESSONS LEARNED
August 2, 2012

2. Federal agencies can help to foster individual pre-
paredness by continuing support to programs and
messaging that fosters that goal.
Planning and preparedness
Despite the chaos created by the blackout, India
was a spotlight for both poor planning and good
planning, and illustrated a necessity for being
ready to respond to a loss of power. While rail
cars languished in need for electric power, they
waited for replacement diesel locomotives to move
them. Metro riders in Delhi waited for four hours
during the morning rush on Monday; organiza-
tions that had prepared for power losses were able
to continue some operation. For example, Indian
Oil Corp. Ltd.’s refineries in the north continued
to run on the on their own power generation and
distribution capacity and critical hospital services
continued with diesel generator-provided energy.
Even in the stressed city of Delhi, officials were able
to mobilize resources to commuter rail stations and
stage ambulances at key points, with an additional
200 buses available for emergencies.6
India’s response to this event showed the necessity
of planning and preparation. Emergency response
plans need to consider the movement of pedes-
trians and vehicles, as well as, the stockpiling of
supplies and equipment needed for everyday life.
U.S. power companies have attempted to prepare
significantly; both by stockpiling equipment for re-
placement and use, while forging mutual assistance
agreements with other companies to provide for a
surge in available work crews.7
Preparedness is an important consideration for
those agencies that respond as well. In the 2003
U.S. blackout from Detroit to New York, The Sub-
urban Mobility Authority for Regional Transporta-
tion (SMART) officials faced difficulty in purchas-
ing supplies of bottled water for their staff during
the event, eventually having to scramble to buy,
“everything in sight that had liquid in it.” Other
officials interviewed for a Department of Transpor-
tation article emphasized a need for “extra flash-
lights and charged batteries for cell phones, pagers,
portable radios, and portable computers.”8
Good
planning and preparedness is just not necessary in
effected communities, but is always an important
consideration for responders as well, to ensure they
can continue to operate. Federal agencies should be
mindful of their own preparedness in addition
to the support they may have to provide state and
locals to ensure the response continues.
Public messaging & Social media
The national government’s response to the crisis
was muted in the Indian public’s perception, largely
due to a lack of public messaging during the crisis.
Reports from the region stated leading politicians
remained largely silent, leaving public communica-
tion to the power minister.9
The void created led
some Indians to turn to social media, such as Twit-
ter, to seek news about the event and to report their
own travel delays, lack of water, or even correcting
inaccurate news reports of power restoration with
by on scene witnesses.10
In this instance, social me-
dia could have provided an opportunity to officials
to both gather information about the extent of the
outage from, and push messages to, the public. In
the U.S., the greater use of social media may make
this option even more attractive in the initial stages
of a catastrophic power loss, providing a conduit
for information flow between the public and
responders.
Resilience of the US power grid
Finally, this latest major blackout highlights a
long-standing legacy of underperformance in the
development of the Indian power sector. Warn-
ings of vulnerabilities in the Indian power sector
are long standing, with the nation missing every
power capacity addition target since 1951.11
Added
to this most recent incident, the missed targets
have brought the question on India’s power grid
resilience to a head, adding urgency to a recently
announced plan to use nearly 40 percent of India’s
planned spending on infrastructure, or nearly $400
billion on improvements to the grid over the next
five years. In the meantime, India is stuck playing
catch up, while years of missed goals have led to a
two day economic disruption in the country, the
financial cost of which has yet to be calculated.
Meanwhile, the United States’ power infrastructure
is in much better shape, but it faces challenges of
its own that will need to be addressed to ensure its
resilience to disruption.
CENTER for RESPONSE and SECURITY LESSONS LEARNED
A Center Within the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute
an FFRDC operated by Analytic Services Inc. on behalf of DHS
2900 S. Quincy Street, Suite 800 | Arlington, Virginia 22206
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luciano.carafano@hsi.dhs.gov

3. CENTER for RESPONSE and SECURITY LESSONS LEARNED
A Center Within the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute
an FFRDC operated by Analytic Services Inc. on behalf of DHS
2900 S. Quincy Street, Suite 800 | Arlington, Virginia 22206
703-416-2000 | www.homelandsecurity.org
luciano.carafano@hsi.dhs.gov
One challenge confronting the effort to increase
the US power grid’s resilience is oddly due to
power companies own attempts to be prepared.
Utilities maintain stockpiles of equipment so they
may quickly replace damaged components in the
grid as needed. However, the fact that companies
already possess these stockpiles provides a dis-
incentive to modernization, as systems are con-
tinually rebuilt to outdated standards from these
supplies, rather than bear the cost up replacing said
stockpiles.12
Failing trees also present a growing
challenge to grid resilience, as the single largest
cause of customer outages in the U.S.13
As the cost
of damage from annual severe storms increases, the
risk of trees falling continues to grow, as a mass of
trees planted in post-World War II America are be-
ginning to die off.14
The resilience of the U.S. elec-
tric grid should be of continual concern moving
forward, as the needs of a response to, and recovery
from, a catastrophic incident will be determined in
advance, largely, by the ability of the power grid to
bounce back.
Parting thoughts
India’s experience with this most recent major
event is, in a way, unique unto their specific cir-
cumstances as a country that is trying to rapidly
modernize in the face of an inadequate and aging
infrastructure. But, in the wake of this blackout,
the issues they begin to look at going forward
are applicable to developed countries. Individual
preparedness remains an issue. How govern-
ments and responders are able to capitalize on the
growth of social media and its impact on message
continues to hold tantalizing promise. Planning
and preparedness remain a constant need, while
presenting challenges in their execution. And, the
continued resilience of even established power grid
infrastructures remains important as needs change.
These issues and how India chooses respond to
them, can provide lessons for the United States.
1
Silverstien, Ed. “Massive Power Outage Raises Ques-
tions for India’s Industrial Future,” TechZone360, retrieved
8/1/2012 -http://www.techzone360.com/topics/techzone/
articles/2012/07/31/301032-massive-power-outage-raises-
questions-indias-industrial-future.htm
2
Singh, Harmeet Shah. “Power Outage snarls transport, leaves
residenes weltering in northern India.” CNN.com, retrieved
8/1/2012 - http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/30/world/asia/india-
blackout/index.html
3
Nessman, Ravi. “370M Indians swelter in heat after power
fails.” Examiner-Enterpise.com, retrieved 8/1/2012 - http://www.
examiner-enterprise.com/sections/news/world/370m-indians-
swelter-heat-after-power-fails.html
4
Sharma, Amol. “India’s Power Network Breaks Down.” Wall
Street Journal Online, retrieved 8/1/2012 - http://online.wsj.
com/article/SB100008723963904444058045775604131786788
98.html
5
Cogan, Kevin. “In the Dark: Military Planning for a Cata-
strophic Critical Infrastructure Event.” United States Army War
College, CSL Study 2-11. May 2011, p 24.
6
“Power outage: CM lauds senior officials on crisis response.”
Business Standard, retrieved 8/1/2012 - http://www.business-
standard.com/generalnews/news/power-outage-cm-lauds-
senior-officialscrisis-response/39228/
7
Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Electrical Trans-
mission and Distribution Mitigation: Loss Avoidance Study
– Nebraska and Kansas,” FEMA-1674-DR-KS and FEMA-1675-
DR-NE (Washington, D.C.: FEMA, April 2008), p. 4-2.
8
DeBlasio, Allan. “Learning from the 2003 Blackout.” Public
Roads: Federal Highway Administration, retrieved 8/1/2012 -
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/04sep/04.
cfm
9
Gelkin, Jeff. “India’s Power Vacuum Needs to be Filled.”
Salon.com, retrieved - http://www.slate.com/blogs/break-
ingviews/2012/08/01/india_s_power_vacuum_needs_to_be_
filled_.html
10
“India reacts to worst blackout in 10 years with tweets and
humor.” The Guardian, retrieved 8/1/2012 - http://www.guard-
ian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/jul/30/india-power-outage-twitter-
reaction
11
Singh, Rajesh Kumar. “Worst India Outage Highlights 60
Years of Missed Targets,” Bloomberg.com. retrieved 8/1/2-12
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-01/worst-india-
outage-highlights-60-years-of-missed-targets-energy.html
12
Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Electrical Trans-
mission and Distribution Mitigation: Loss Avoidance Study
– Nebraska and Kansas,” FEMA-1674-DR-KS and FEMA-1675-
DR-NE (Washington, D.C.: FEMA, April 2008), p. 4-2.
13
“Tough Enough?” Electric Perspectives, p. 34
14
Interview with business continuity manager at West Coast
utility, 14 May 2012;” O’Neill and Fijnvandraat; Fischer, “LIPA’s
lessons from Irene,” editorial, Newsday [online], Opinion, 6
September 2011, http://www.newsday.com/opinion/lipa-s-
lessons-from-irene-1.3149307 (accessed: 27 March 2012).