Coastal ecological and geomorphologic analysis and prediction system

1. COASTAL ECOLOGICAL AND
GEOMORPHOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND
PREDICTION SYSTEM
Delft User Days
November 4, 2015
Katelyn Costanza, M.S., CFM
Ehab Meselhe, Ph.D., P.E.
Daniel Twigt, Deltares

2. OPPORTUNITIES
Ability to refine projections based on
real time monitoring and predictions.
Adaptive management of diversions
operation
Proactive measures to mitigate impacts to coastal
communities
Improve models and current state of knowledge
based on continual observation and assessment
Water Institute Forecast System 2

3. OBJECTIVE
• System provides real-time forecast for spatial variation and
point time-series
– Water level
– Salinity
– Water temperature
• Run various operational plans in real time for Davis Pond
and Caernarvon Fresh Water Diversions
Water Institute Forecast System 3

4. OBJECTIVE
Water Institute Forecast System 4

5. SYSTEM
• Built upon Open Source Flood Early Warning
System (FEWS)
• Full functionality of Community Hydrologic
Prediction System (CHPS) developed by
NWS/Deltares
• Water Institute Delft 3D Models are utilized for real
time applications
Water Institute Forecast System 5

6. SYSTEM
Back to Overview

7. Atmospheric
Forecast
Model
Ingested
Real Time
Observations
River Forecast
Model
Gulf Forecast Model
INSTITUTE FORECAST SYSTEM

8. Past Future
Forecast Performance Assessment
& Correction Period
7-day Forecast Window
Now (Real-time Data)
Time
SampleModelOutput
INSTITUTE FORECAST SYSTEM
Water Institute Forecast System 8

9. OPERATIONAL SETUP
Institute Forecast System
Water Institute Forecast System 9

10. 10
Mississippi River
Gulf and Lake Pontchartrain Drainages
Davis Pond and Caernarvon Outfall
Observed Forecast Adjusted8/28/2015
OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

11. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

12. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

13. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

14. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

15. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

16. OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS
Atmospheric

17. HINDCAST/FORECAST
OUTPUT
Time-series Gridded Longitudinal
Water Institute Forecast System 17

19. Time – Series Output

20. Time – Series Output

22. Time – Series Output

23. Time – Series Output

25. Time – Series Output

26. Time – Series Output

28. Time – Series Output

29. Time – Series Output

30. FORECASTED OUTPUTS
Gridded Output – Water Level

31. FORECASTED OUTPUTS
Gridded Output - Salinity

32. FORECASTED OUTPUTS
Gridded Output – Water Temperature

33. CONCLUSIONS
Model is ‘warming up’.
Model can incorporate multiple operational
scenarios to generate a 7 day forecast
Currently model provides forecast for water level,
salinity and temperature. Future phases will
include sediment and nutrients
Highlights model aspects requiring improvement
Water Institute Forecast System 33

34. THANK YOU
301 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000
BATON ROUGE, LA 70825
(225) 448-2813
WWW.THEWATERINSTITUTE.ORG
Ehab Meselhe | Director of Natural Systems Modeling and Monitoring
@TheH2OInstitute