The document discusses the impacts of climate change on livestock systems in Kenya, highlighting vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies such as nomadic pastoralism and community watering points. It addresses impediments to adaptation, including economic capacity issues and ineffective policies, and suggests emerging mechanisms like sustainable intensification and improved feeding regimes. Recommendations emphasize the need for multidisciplinary research and supportive policies to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities.

1. C limate C hange Vulnerability, A daptation and
Mitigation of L ivestock Systems in Kenya
Nanyingi M O, Kiama S G, Thumbi S M, Muchemi G M and Bett B
THE ME : C L IMA TE C HA NGE A ND ONE HE A L TH
8th Biennial Scientific C onference (FVM) and the 46th A nnual Scientific
C onference (KVA ), Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi
25th A pril 2012 (12.30pm)
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2. 1.0 C limate change impacts on livestock
In 2006 and 2007, PH
Burden of RVF OB
resulted in 3.4 DALYs
per 1000 people and
household costs of
about Ksh 10,000
(USD120)
3%GDP loss
$500M/(2012)
$1-2 B(2030)
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3. 1.2 Vulnerability and A daptive capacity
• Biophysical: The sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard
• Social: sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure.
Impact is a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability
Literacy
Groundwater?
Soil
mortality
degradation
Social:
Biophysical
Technological??
Climate vulnerability, coping range and adaptive capacity
Vincent (2004) 3
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4. 1.3 A daptation and Mitigation ?
 To effectively m anage vulnerability: Ad aptation is to red uce sensitivity and
M itigation to red uce the m agnitud e of clim ate change im pact.
 Ad aptation research can help inform d ecisions by farm ers and policy m akers on
im plications over a range of tim efram es to effectively integrate m itigation
m echanism s
 Vulnerability analyses can guid e governm ents of the investm ent or d isinvestm ent
d ecisions currently or in the near future in relation to clim ate-sensitive aspects.
 Translating ad aptation options into m itigation requires consid eration of a m ore
com prehensive risk m anagem ent / vulnerability fram ework that allows exploration
of quantified scenarios.
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Howden et al 2007
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5. 1.4 E xisting adaptation and mitigation strategies
 N om ad ic pastoralism in search of water and pastures
 D esignated com m unity watering points or buffer grazing areas
 Trad itional Early Warning System s (TEWS)
 U se of em ergency fod d ers or forage crops
 D iversification of species herd com position(sm all rum inants)
 Increase of herd size as security to m ortality and L ivestock trad ing
 Ethno-veterinary M ed icine (EVM )
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Nanyingi et al., 2008; Hellmuth et al., 2009; Notenbaert et al.,
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2010
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6. 1.5 Impediments to adaptation and Mitigation
 L ack of econom ic capacity to ad apt to a rapid ly changing clim ate
 Environm ental D egrad ation: fragm entation and D esertification
 Arm ed conflict and out-m igration (Stock theft and trad e barriers)
 L ack of appropriate breed s of anim als
 Ineffective livestock policies (Institutional or governm ent )
 Extrem e increase in hum an and anim al Populations (Exponential)
 D eplorable ed ucation levels and Religious beliefs
Madisson 2010 6
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7. 1.6 E merging adaptation/mitigation mechanisms
 Sustainable Intensification
 Im proved feed ing regim es by supplem entation and clim ate resistant forage crops
,conservation of grassland s, rotational or ad aptive grazing
 Prod uction ad justm ents- m od ifying stock routings and d istances
 Reprod uctive technologies for increased prod uction and d isease/ heat tolerant breed s
, faster growing breed s
 M arket im provem ent by incentives and stand ard ization
 Physical infrastructure (Road s, rails, jetty's, cooling facilities)
 D isease Surveillance and M anagem ent (Transbound ary)- DVS
 Im proved m anagem ent of water, herd com position, stock rates
 Survival and livelihood diversification
 D iversifying incom es by m ixed livestock farm ing system s
 Ind ex Based L ivelihood Insurance system s (IBL I)
Madisson 2010; Herrero et al 2010
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8. 2.0 Why climate change research?
 To und erstand how short-term response strategies m ay link to long-term options for
im plem ented d ecisions d o not und erm ine coping ability.
 L inking C lim ate change with existing d ynam ic policies to cope with high level of
uncertainty in the tim ing and m agnitud e of potential clim ate changes and the rapid ly
evolving knowled ge base (NSC C )
 D evelopm ent of spatial pred ictive m od els for im proved und erstand ing and
translation into accurate seasonal forecasting of future clim atological d ata
 C ollaborative efforts in ad d ressing the clim ate change challenges can support “one
health” initiatives ad d ressing clim ate sensitive neglected zoonotic d iseases.
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9. 2.1 Potential Research A pproaches
 C om m unity Participatory Epid em iology (C PE): C apacity build ing livestock keepers
, D ecision Support tools
 Q uantifying sensitivity to clim ate change, societal resilience, ad aptive capacity and
costs of im pacts of C C (D isease Burd en and Econom ic M od elling Analysis )
 Spatial and tem poral pred ictive m od elling of livestock d iseases- M apping of d isease
hotspots, watering areas, transhum ance corrid ors and overlay the clim ate change
hotspots with the food insecure hotspots
 Global C irculation M od els (G C M) – C lim ate m od els to pred ict seasonal to inter-
annual clim ate variability (HadCM3, ECHam4 , MarkSim)
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10. 3.0 Discussion :
 Vulnerable com m unities need financial and m aterial support for creating alternative
livelihood options with red uced d epend ence on livestock farm ing
 C apacity to m ake continuing ad justm ents and im provem ents in ad aptation by
“learning by doing” via targeted m onitoring of ad aptations to clim ate change and
their costs, benefits, and effects.
 L ocal com m unities should be equipped with the necessary resources (financial,
physical, social, and hum an) to cope and ad apt, while an effective institutional
capacity and supportive policy context is initiated .
 It is im portant to id entify easy to im plem ent and cost effective m itigation activities
strengthening the ad aptive capacities to clim ate change of these com m unities.
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11. 4.0 C onclusions :
 M ainstream ing of clim ate change ad aptation policies intend ed to enhance broad
resilience to risk or to prom ote sustainable d evelopm ent.
 Integrated Assessm ent M od els (IAM ) linked to biophysical, clim atic, social,
econom ic processes consistent evaluation of ad aptation and vulnerability
 C lim ate m onitoring and effective com m unication, includ ing targeted support of
surveillance of pests, d iseases, d irectly affected by clim ate.
 Strengthening the Interaction of science and policy need s to evolve as the scientific
knowled ge base changes and focus attention on the im portance of integrative rather
than d isciplinary science
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12. 5.0 Recommendations :
 M ultid isciplinary research team s to effectively harness the substantial scientific
knowled ge, while retaining a focus on the values im portant to stakehold ers in
achieving relevance, cred ibility, and legitim acy (C limate change Working
G roup???)
 M any barriers to ad aptation exist; overcom ing them will require a com prehensive
and d ynam ic policy approach, covering a range of scales and issues, from ind ivid ual
farm er awareness to the establishm ent of m ore efficient m arkets.
 C urrent clim ate variability can be tackled by accelerating d evelopm ent and
increasing social protection while future clim ate risks can be checked by build ing
ad aptive capacity and enhancing clim ate resilience of vulnerable com m unities .
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13. Thank You- A santeni Sana
Addressing climate change is “a moral commitment to the global community”
mnanyingi@gmail.com 13
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