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US Dollar and Current Banking System


A1
SS 2011-13
     BY
AMRUTH (2-4)
RAVINDAR(5-7)     PRESENTED TO
                  PROF .SUNANDA
 SUBHANK(7        MACRO ECONOMICS
US Economy Fundamentals
• In the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys
  of Consumers, the median reading on expected inflation
  over the next 5 to 10 years was 2.9 %.
• The Fed in September embarked on a program to sell
  $400 billion in short-term Treasuries and invest the
  money in longer-dated bonds, an effort to keep long-
  term rates down.
• Fed projects GDP growth at 2.7%-2.9% for the next
  QE 1,2012
GDP Growth Rates for 2011
Banking Sector
• Banks are also continuing
  to step up their
  capitalisation levels.
• Total Tier 1 capital for the
  Top 1000 rose 10.5%, to
  $5433bn, comfortably
  outpacing the growth in
  assets.
• The trend towards higher
  capital-to-assets ratios
  worldwide continues
  unabated.
Banking Sector
•   The US in particular has enjoyed
   a much-improved
   performance, with
   Citigroup, Bank of New York
   Mellon, State
   Street, GMAC, Keycorp and
   Huntington Bancshares – all
   among the top 25 largest losses
   last year – this year recording
   substantial profits.
• Outside the US, other banks that
   jumped from biggest losers to big
   profits include UBS, Russia’s
   VTB, Dutch bank ING and two of
   Germany’s largest banks-
   Deutsche Bank (Frankfurt
   a.M., 1.5 billion)
  Commerzbank* (Frankfurt
   a.M., 844 million).
Euro Zone
• For 2011, the team of forecasters
  for The Economist is projecting
  1.3% growth for the Eurozone (the
  16 out of 27 EU countries that use
  the euro currency).

• But it's not that simple:
• You must also factor in the reality
  that the Eurozone's annual
  population growth is only
  0.1%, versus 1.0% in the United
  States.
• Once you do that the growth rates
  are almost identical - 1.2% in the
  Eurozone versus 1.3% in the United
  States.
Growth Engines
• Last but not least, there is
  Germany. The Economist panel is
  projecting growth of only 2%. But
  that's almost certainly another
  example of Anglo-American
  economists underestimating
  Germany's real potential. Its
  growth rate in 2010 is actually
  expected to be 3.3%.

   Germany now has a substantial
   labor skill advantage over its
   neighbors in the euro community,
   and is growing relatively rapidly,
   as the costs of absorbing the
   former East Germany fade into
   the past.
Growth Engines
•   As was the case back in the 1980s,
    Germany is one of the world's great
    growth economies, with a structural
    trade surplus due to the efficiency
    and quality of its manufacturing.
•   The euro, holding down Germany's
    exchange rate through the
    inefficiencies of its European
    neighbors, only accentuates this
    trend and increases Germany's
    growth potential.
    As an investor, your portfolio needs
    exposure to Europe; it's a huge part
    of the world economy, and growth
    and profitability in the better parts of
    Europe are highly satisfactory.
US Dollar
• Inverse relation with
  commodities like gold and even
  equities.
• EUR/USD has broken the crucial
  1.3000 mark due to Greece`s
  default risk.
• USD/INR has depreciated 20%
  due to India`s rising fiscal deficit
  of 3,07,009 crores and rising
  import bill $358 bn .
• We`re seeing signs of capitulation
  in the dollar index which is at
  70.(all time low).It is due to
  excessive dollar printing.
THANK YOU

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dollars and money system

  • 1. US Dollar and Current Banking System A1 SS 2011-13 BY AMRUTH (2-4) RAVINDAR(5-7) PRESENTED TO PROF .SUNANDA SUBHANK(7 MACRO ECONOMICS
  • 2. US Economy Fundamentals • In the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the median reading on expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years was 2.9 %. • The Fed in September embarked on a program to sell $400 billion in short-term Treasuries and invest the money in longer-dated bonds, an effort to keep long- term rates down. • Fed projects GDP growth at 2.7%-2.9% for the next QE 1,2012
  • 3. GDP Growth Rates for 2011
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  • 6. Banking Sector • Banks are also continuing to step up their capitalisation levels. • Total Tier 1 capital for the Top 1000 rose 10.5%, to $5433bn, comfortably outpacing the growth in assets. • The trend towards higher capital-to-assets ratios worldwide continues unabated.
  • 7. Banking Sector • The US in particular has enjoyed a much-improved performance, with Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, GMAC, Keycorp and Huntington Bancshares – all among the top 25 largest losses last year – this year recording substantial profits. • Outside the US, other banks that jumped from biggest losers to big profits include UBS, Russia’s VTB, Dutch bank ING and two of Germany’s largest banks- Deutsche Bank (Frankfurt a.M., 1.5 billion) Commerzbank* (Frankfurt a.M., 844 million).
  • 8. Euro Zone • For 2011, the team of forecasters for The Economist is projecting 1.3% growth for the Eurozone (the 16 out of 27 EU countries that use the euro currency). • But it's not that simple: • You must also factor in the reality that the Eurozone's annual population growth is only 0.1%, versus 1.0% in the United States. • Once you do that the growth rates are almost identical - 1.2% in the Eurozone versus 1.3% in the United States.
  • 9. Growth Engines • Last but not least, there is Germany. The Economist panel is projecting growth of only 2%. But that's almost certainly another example of Anglo-American economists underestimating Germany's real potential. Its growth rate in 2010 is actually expected to be 3.3%. Germany now has a substantial labor skill advantage over its neighbors in the euro community, and is growing relatively rapidly, as the costs of absorbing the former East Germany fade into the past.
  • 10. Growth Engines • As was the case back in the 1980s, Germany is one of the world's great growth economies, with a structural trade surplus due to the efficiency and quality of its manufacturing. • The euro, holding down Germany's exchange rate through the inefficiencies of its European neighbors, only accentuates this trend and increases Germany's growth potential. As an investor, your portfolio needs exposure to Europe; it's a huge part of the world economy, and growth and profitability in the better parts of Europe are highly satisfactory.
  • 11. US Dollar • Inverse relation with commodities like gold and even equities. • EUR/USD has broken the crucial 1.3000 mark due to Greece`s default risk. • USD/INR has depreciated 20% due to India`s rising fiscal deficit of 3,07,009 crores and rising import bill $358 bn . • We`re seeing signs of capitulation in the dollar index which is at 70.(all time low).It is due to excessive dollar printing.

Editor's Notes

  1. Unabated :Without any reduction in strength