Greece eurozone and the euro the body is getting really rottenMarkets Beyond
Greece debt trap is inextricable: there is no way out of a default/restructing - debt "reprofiling" is just a joke since it would require 21% compound annual growth for 10 years to go back to 60% debt/GDP ratio.
Principales conclusiones de la reunión del BCEFinect
Deutsche Bank ha realizado un informe en el que analiza las principales conclusiones de la reunión del BCE la semana pasada y las claves del inicio del programa de compra masiva de deuda, iniciado ayer. Asimismo, los analistas comentan los posibles efectos que esto puede tener en los mercados y vaticinan posibles escenarios a futuro en la eurozona.
Greece eurozone and the euro the body is getting really rottenMarkets Beyond
Greece debt trap is inextricable: there is no way out of a default/restructing - debt "reprofiling" is just a joke since it would require 21% compound annual growth for 10 years to go back to 60% debt/GDP ratio.
Principales conclusiones de la reunión del BCEFinect
Deutsche Bank ha realizado un informe en el que analiza las principales conclusiones de la reunión del BCE la semana pasada y las claves del inicio del programa de compra masiva de deuda, iniciado ayer. Asimismo, los analistas comentan los posibles efectos que esto puede tener en los mercados y vaticinan posibles escenarios a futuro en la eurozona.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2018 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
As of beginning of 2018, aggregate central marketable sovereign debt in OECD is projected to continue to increase, while debt-to-GDP measures may have stabilised, although at historically high levels. A considerable part of that debt needs to be refinanced within the coming years (a cumulative of 40% of total debt outstanding until 2020), while the assessed credit quality of sovereign debt issues from OECD countries has declined over the last decade.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2019 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-sovereign-borrowing-outlook-23060476.htm
As a result of the financial crisis and global recession public debt burdens have risen to critical levels in a number of Western European countries. Emergency loans from the EU and IMF have eased funding pressures, but have only bought the region time; painful fiscal adjustment and an improvement in competitiveness is required if the region is to enjoy a sustainable recovery.
Eastern Europe, while rebounding through exports and industrial output, will underperform its emerging-market peers in 2010. Business and consumer sentiment in the region is fragile, and its currency and bond markets are vulnerable to contagion from problems in the euro zone or a rise in risk aversion more broadly.
This presentation takes a look at the economic outlook for both Western and Eastern Europe.
Economic adjustment in the euro area and the experience of the BalticsLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Hans-Joachim Klöckers, Deputy Director General Economics, European Central Bank at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Recent Developments in Global Financial Markets: Impact on TurkeyEren Ocakverdi
A concise background regarding the recent financial and regulatory developments in Europe and Turkey were provided from a practitioner’s point of view.
One of Latvia's unsung heroes in financial journalism is Dorian Ziedonis, The Baltic Times Editor-in-Chief. This time he has taken a look at the coming EUROentry for Latvia and what could be possible scenarios if we look at those countries already having enterred and their experience. The PRIME Match is the main advertising feature and 'bandwagon'/mouth piece for the B2BLiST m a t ch e d networking at events in Latvia. The next - Speakers' CORNER is due May 23. Be there..or be...out-of-the-loop... office@prime.lv +371 29 360 813 GMT + 2 hrs 09:15- 22:00) WELCOME to book tickets or speech time! Henrik Mjoman Project Mgr, mRiga, LATVIA
Ireland’s EU-IMF Program: A Safe Harbor in a Perfect StormLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Craig Beaumont, Assistant Director of the European Department, International Monetary Fund at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
WF briefing note: The problem with Greece (Apr 2015)World First
Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at currency experts World First, explores what might happen if Greece left the euro - the so-called 'Grexit'. What would it mean for Greece, the rest of the eurozone and you?
El 17 de noviembre de 2015, organizamos en la Fundación Ramón Areces con el Fondo Monetario Internacional la jornada 'Perspectivas y desafíos de política económica en América Latina'. En ella se presentó y analizó el Informe del FMI 'Perspectivas económicas-Las Américas (octubre, 2015)'.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2018 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
As of beginning of 2018, aggregate central marketable sovereign debt in OECD is projected to continue to increase, while debt-to-GDP measures may have stabilised, although at historically high levels. A considerable part of that debt needs to be refinanced within the coming years (a cumulative of 40% of total debt outstanding until 2020), while the assessed credit quality of sovereign debt issues from OECD countries has declined over the last decade.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2019 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-sovereign-borrowing-outlook-23060476.htm
As a result of the financial crisis and global recession public debt burdens have risen to critical levels in a number of Western European countries. Emergency loans from the EU and IMF have eased funding pressures, but have only bought the region time; painful fiscal adjustment and an improvement in competitiveness is required if the region is to enjoy a sustainable recovery.
Eastern Europe, while rebounding through exports and industrial output, will underperform its emerging-market peers in 2010. Business and consumer sentiment in the region is fragile, and its currency and bond markets are vulnerable to contagion from problems in the euro zone or a rise in risk aversion more broadly.
This presentation takes a look at the economic outlook for both Western and Eastern Europe.
Economic adjustment in the euro area and the experience of the BalticsLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Hans-Joachim Klöckers, Deputy Director General Economics, European Central Bank at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Recent Developments in Global Financial Markets: Impact on TurkeyEren Ocakverdi
A concise background regarding the recent financial and regulatory developments in Europe and Turkey were provided from a practitioner’s point of view.
One of Latvia's unsung heroes in financial journalism is Dorian Ziedonis, The Baltic Times Editor-in-Chief. This time he has taken a look at the coming EUROentry for Latvia and what could be possible scenarios if we look at those countries already having enterred and their experience. The PRIME Match is the main advertising feature and 'bandwagon'/mouth piece for the B2BLiST m a t ch e d networking at events in Latvia. The next - Speakers' CORNER is due May 23. Be there..or be...out-of-the-loop... office@prime.lv +371 29 360 813 GMT + 2 hrs 09:15- 22:00) WELCOME to book tickets or speech time! Henrik Mjoman Project Mgr, mRiga, LATVIA
Ireland’s EU-IMF Program: A Safe Harbor in a Perfect StormLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Craig Beaumont, Assistant Director of the European Department, International Monetary Fund at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
WF briefing note: The problem with Greece (Apr 2015)World First
Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at currency experts World First, explores what might happen if Greece left the euro - the so-called 'Grexit'. What would it mean for Greece, the rest of the eurozone and you?
El 17 de noviembre de 2015, organizamos en la Fundación Ramón Areces con el Fondo Monetario Internacional la jornada 'Perspectivas y desafíos de política económica en América Latina'. En ella se presentó y analizó el Informe del FMI 'Perspectivas económicas-Las Américas (octubre, 2015)'.
Global Developments, European Crisis, and Rwanda by Dmitry Gershenson, Resident Representative and Country Director for Rwanda, International Monetary Fund (IMF), presented on June 6, 2012 during a public lecture at the School of Finance and Banking (SFB)
Lekcija: Pasaules tautsaimniecības izaicinājumi un perspektīvasLatvijas Banka
Prezentācija izmantota lekcijā Biznesa augstskola Turība 2016. gada 20. oktobrī.
Pasaules ekonomikas un lielāko pasaules valstu ekonomiku attīstības prognozes, balstoties uz jaunāko Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda veikto analīzi. Prezentācijā apskatīti aktuālie ekonomikas jautājumi un nozīmīgākie attīstību kavējošie riski.
On November 2, 2010, EIU Senior Economist Leila Butt, presented the Economist Intelligence Unit Global Outlook in Boston. Key points in this presentation include:
- Most economies are growing again
- Emerging markets are booming
- Unemployment remains very high
- Consumers are rebuilding balance sheets
- Countries are heavily indebted
- Deflation is a risk in rich countries
- Asset bubbles are a risk in emerging markets
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
This paper investigates the barriers to innovation perceived by Polish manufacturing firms. It refers to the heterogeneity of innovation active firms. We introduce a taxonomy of innovative firms based on the frequency with which they introduce commercialised innovations using data from both CIS4 (for 2002-2004) and CIS5 (2004-2006). Two groups of innovation-active firms are distinguished: those which introduced innovation in both periods covered by both CIS (which we call persistent innovators) and those which introduced innovation either in CIS4 or CIS5 (which we call occasional innovators). We use a four step analysis covering binary correlations, Principal Component Analysis, probit model and correlations of disturbances. Two types of explanatory variables describing firms’ characteristics and innovation inputs used are considered. The paper shows that there are considerable differences in sensitivities to the perception of innovation barriers and in complementarities among barriers between persistent and occasional innovators. In the case of occasional innovators, a kind of innovation barrier chain is observed. This has an impact on differences in the frequency of innovation activities between the two groups of innovators and results in a diversification of innovators.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Marek Pęczkowski, Anna Wziatek-Kubiak
Published in 2011
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 421 - Complementarities between barriers to...
2010 Fixed Income Outlook
1. Money does not perform. People do. Press conference: Fixed Income Markets – Outlook 2010 Nicolas Forest, Head of Interest Rate Strategy Koen Van de Maele, CFA, Global Head of Fixed Income 12 January 2010 - Brussels
2.
3. What are the legacies of the crisis ? Illiquidity The end of the global recession… Systemic Risk Housing Crisis Global Recession Return of Liquidity Market Normaliza-tion Rebound of Housing Prices Global Recovery Explosion of Government Debt Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management Euro Zone US Zone End of 2009 End of 2008 End of 2009 End of 2008 Market Data 5957.00 4900.00 1115.00 898.00 Equity Market 0.71% 2.83% 0.25% 1.43% 3 Months Libor Rate 3.38% 2.94% 3.83% 2.07% 10Y Government Yield 20.16 38.00 21.68 38.87 Implied Volatility -6.35% -2.00% -10.00% -4.70% Budget Deficit End of 2009 End of 2008 End of 2009 End of 2008 Economic Data Euro Zone US Zone 8.00% 1.60% 33.90 9.80% 10.00% 6.80% Unemployment Rate 0.50% 1.80% 0.10% Inflation 51.60 53.60 32.90 Manufacturing PMI
4. What are the legacies of the crisis ? … and the explosion of government debt x 2.25 in 10 years 120% (2014) 40% (2014) Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
5. In 2010, the exit timing will be crucial Inflation Risk Inflation risk will increase due to the accommodative monetary policy. But sovereign debt remains credible. Buy inflation linked bonds Exiting too late will increase the inflation & sovereign risks Too Late (Q1 2011) Too Early (Q1 2010) Monetary Budgetary Tightening Too Early (Q1 2010) Too Late (Q1 2011) Double Dip (no sovereign & inflation risk) The tightening will derail the recovery. A double dip scenario could support government debt. Buy core countries Sovereign & Inflation Risks The explosion of deficits is strongly bearish and the inflation risk could support the steepening of the curve Sovereign Risk The restrictive monetary policy could reinforce the sovereign risk with risk of downgrades Sell government bonds Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
6. The Federal Reserve could be too late… A schedule for the Fed Q4 2009 : End Treasury Buying February 1 : End Lending Facilities June 30 : End Credit Easing H2 2010 Draining Reserves ? 2010 2009 Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
7. The Federal Reserve could be too late… A schedule for the Fed Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
8. … but the ECB too early A schedule for the ECB December 16 Last 1y LTRO EONIA = 0.35% March 31 Last 6m LTRO EONIA = 0.35% April 13 End Full Alloc. EONIA = 0.50% July 1 € 442 bln mature EONIA = 1.00% September 30 € 75 bln mature EONIA = 1.05% 2009 2010 Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
9. … but the ECB too early A schedule for the ECB Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
10. The surge in public debt will create new imbalances… The Debt Conundrum + 105% in 7 years + 111% in 7 years + 76% in 7 years Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
11. … and require large fiscal restrictions The Debt Conundrum Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
12. The fiscal exit strategy will penalize budgetary excesses… Euro Area - implosion or political test ? Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
13. … but will offer opportunities to investors Euro Area - implosion or political test ? Specific risk… Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management * Composed by debt score (public deficit – debt / GDP) and economy score (GDP – unemployment – inflation) * Composed by spread adjusted to risk and to liquidity
14. Emerging economies have more favorable debt ratio trends… The virtues of the emerging economies In 2010, the debt of emerging economies remains relatively stable against the global public debt… … but over the last 10 years, its share in the global GDP has increased with 12% The public debt per capita ratio of the emerging countries is clearly below average Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
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16.
17. 2010 Trade recommendations Interest Rate Strategies Bullish Bearish 2s10s Steeper 2s10s Flatter Higher Lower Buy Area Sell Area Source : Bloomberg – IMF – European Commission – Dexia Asset Management
18.
19. 2010 - the end of a disliked USD ? USD recent appreciation is premature… Rebound of the leadings, Rebound of the stock markets, Surge of positive data surprises End of Year positioning reversal Recent risk aversion due to Greek downgrades The market expects the Fed to hike in H2 2010 with a end year target of 1.1% Source : Bloomberg - DataStream – Dexia Asset Management
20. 2010 - the end of a disliked USD ? … but the current USD levels remain cheap in a longer term perspective “ Natural Funders” Low yieds with CA surplus Comeback of the carry trades Expensive EUR The USD follows long term cycles High short rates Sustained growth USD undervalued Restrictive monetary policy New Economy USD undervalued Danger Zone 1.40 Source : DataStream – Dexia Asset Management
21. JPY - still a lagging economy Japanese deflation, high public debt and weak internal demand will weigh on JPY US drastic quantitative easing helped to sustain JPY till now but … Japanese export driven growth will not be enough to bring GDP growth above 2% in 2010 Quantitative easing will persist for a while in Japan due to continuing deflation… 100 Source : DataStream – Dexia Asset Management
22. Norwegian krona benefits from good fundamentals… Potential for more appreciation 7.80 Cheap NOK is not yet back to fair value Comfortable Norway current account surplus Still a positive budget account Unemployment remains low and will sustain internal growth Source : DataStream – Dexia Asset Management
23. Polish zloty will outperform other Eastern European currencies… Poland’s prospects remain good for convergence Poland is not so bad positioned w.r.t. Maastricht criteria Polish growth remains positive Rate hikes will occur in 2010 PLN should recover toward previous crisis level 3.60 Source : DataStream – Dexia Asset Management
24.
25. Don’t exit credit yet…spreads to tighten further in 2010 The rally has just started Source : Datastream – Dexia Asset Management 9 months of rally compared to 40 months of recovery on average since 1970 Credit market is remunerative on the long term… Outperformance generated 1 year after the bottom of the crisis (5.79%) exceeds the cumulative loss (-4.99%) $ Credit over 4 decades and 6 crisis
26. Exiting an economical recession context Source : Dexia Asset Management, Datastream, Moody’s, Federal Reserve, Bankscope Corporate activity is set to pick up 2-3 % growth has been an ideal environment for credit Ideal for investment grade credit Non performing loans cycle to peak at the end of Q2 2010 R² : 46%
27. Exiting an economical recession context Source : Dexia Asset Management, Datastream Monetary policy is not a risk Fed policy rate over the last 40 years Cumulated Spread changes before & after first rate hike
28.
29. Balance sheet repairment supports credit in 2010 Source : Dexia Asset Management, Bloomberg, Datastream, Moody’s Focus on revenues generation The cyclical rebound of non-financials Still in deleveraging mode Opportunistic merger & acquisition can surface again Corporate health is improving Aggresive costs cutting & capex reduction Default rate expectation tends to its long term average 4.8%
30. Balance sheet repairment supports credit in 2010 Source : Dexia Asset Management, Datastream US Banks increased liquid assets buffer Aggressive cost cutting & pre-financing increase cash on Non-fin balance sheets Liquidity stays at the central stage Non-financials supply – lower than in 2009 huge redemptions and pre-financing Reopening of the primary market for covered & senior bonds Desintermediation and liquidity focus New regulation will impose a minimum liquidity requirement Gross 260 bn Net -31 bn Gross 209 bn Net -14 bn Gross & Net 276 bn Gross 240 bn Net -94 bn Gross 375 bn Net -13 bn Gross 60 bn Net 38 bn
31. Credit Strategy 2010 Source: Dexia Asset Management, iBoxx, Datastream Spreads imply a default rate of 7.09% over the next 5 years versus 1.71% historically Risk premium accounts for 50% of yield Credit valuation is still attractive… Technicals favour credit bonds over sovereign bonds Credit - Equity premium is narrowing Rising dividend expectations will favour equity, however demand for credit from institutionals will remain strong
32. Credit Strategy 2010 Source: Dexia Asset Management, iBoxx Be long credit …financial sector remains our core strategy Relative attractiveness of the financial sector Switch from Non-financial defensive issuers into more cyclical issuers Telecom Italia - Telecom Pemex – Oil & Gas Veolia – Utilities Sabic – Chemicals Bertelsman – Media BAT – Tobacco Lafarge – Construction CEZ – Utilities Man – Industrials Favour improving fundamentals and better liquidity names within higher beta names Arcelor – Basics