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Discovery or Displacement? 
A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study of the 
Effect of Discovery Systems on Online 
Journal Usage 
July 23, 2014 
Michael Levine-Clark, University of Denver 
John McDonald, University of Southern California 
Jason Price, SCELC Consortium
Why Do We Use Discovery Services? 
• Too many sources of information 
– Specialized 
– Confusing 
– What’s the right specialized database for my 
subject? 
• Why do you search in one place for an article, 
another place for a different article, another 
for a book?
Terminology 
Discovery Tool = Discovery Layer = 
Discovery Service = Discovery System
Web-scale discovery services 
• Single source for 
finding information 
– Books 
– Articles 
– Local content 
• Metadata and/or full 
text 
• Content is pre-indexed 
and/or pre-harvested 
• Single fast search 
ILS 
Publisher 
Metadata 
MLA 
Bibliograph 
y 
Institutional 
Repository 
HathiTrust 
Discovery Service
Does implementation of a discovery 
service impact usage of publisher-hosted 
journal content?
What did we measure? 
• Whether there is an 
effect 
• NOT why that effect 
exists (that’s a future 
study!)
Publisher-hosted journals are 
only part of the picture 
eBooks, pBooks, newspaper articles, aggregator 
journal content, etc. 
publisher journal content 
The six publishers in this study
Journals Traffic Sources 
52.3 
12.4 
32.5 
2.8 
1 
Open web search 
Library referrals 
Social media 
Academic 
N/A 
(SAGE, Conrad ALPSP 2013)
An assumption 
• At any given institution, given a relatively 
stable user base, the total search effort will 
remain roughly the same.
Discovery services 
 Will take up an increasing amount of a finite 
time for searching 
 Will draw users from other (more or less 
efficient) search tools 
 Will alter the overall productivity of searches 
(users will find more or less) 
 Will alter the overall efficiency of users (users 
will access more or less full-text)
• 33 Libraries Dataset 
– 28 US, 2 CA, 1 each from UK, AUS, NZ 
– WorldCat book holdings 
> Average: 1,114,193 ; Range: ~300k to ~2.6mil 
– 4 discovery groups, of 6 libraries each 
– 1 control group, 9 libraries 
• Implementation dates (Discovery Libraries): 
> 2010 (3), 2011 (19), 2012 (2) 
• 6 Publishers 
• 9,206 Journals 
• 163,545 Usable Observations
Methodology 
Compared COUNTER JR1 total full text article views for the 
12 months before vs 12 months after implementation date 
Start June 2010 
Implementation 
May 2011 
May 2012 
End 
Year 1 Year 2 
Included implementation month in Year 1 to ensure that 
both periods included an entire academic year
Examine Data for Outliers
Analyzing Usage Change: % vs Total 
Use 12 
months 
before 
Use 12 
months 
after 
% Change 
Total 
Change 
Journal A 500 600 20% 100 
Journal B 5 15 200% 10 
Which is the better measure? 
Is it the same for publisher- & journal-level data?
Observations by Publisher
Journals by Library & Service 
EDS Primo Summon WorldCat Control
Average Journal Usage by Library
Testable Effects 
• Discovery Tool 
– Implemented by multiple libraries 
– Used to find content from all publishers 
• Publisher 
– Accessible in all discovery tools 
– Accessible across multiple libraries 
• Library 
– Uses content from multiple publishers 
– Uses only one discovery tool (so only within DT)
Full Model 
Including Discovery Service, Publisher, and Library 
Including Discovery Service, Publisher, and Library
Nested ANOVA Model Results
How does usage change differ across discovery services? 
Letters indicate statistically significant differences (Tukey multiple comparisons, p < 
.05) 
A 
C 
D 
B B
How does usage change differ across publishers? 
Letters indicate statistically significant differences (Tukey multiple comparisons, p < 
.01) 
C 
Publisher (sorted by Mean Change) 
D 
B B B 
A
How does usage change differ across publishers?
Does usage change vary across libraries? 
Institution (sorted by Mean Change)
Usage Change Per Institution: All Journals 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
6.32 
Usage Change By Institution: Pub 1 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Usage Change By Institution: Pub 2 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Usage Change By Institution: Pub 3 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Usage Change By Institution: Pub 4 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Usage Change Per Institution: Pub 5 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Usage Change by Institution: Pub 6 
Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
Publisher 1 by Discovery System
Publisher 2 by Discovery System
Publisher 3 by Discovery System
Publisher 4 by Discovery System
Publisher 5 by Discovery System
Publisher 6 by Discovery System
Next Steps 
• Design & test for effects of: 
– Aggregator full text availability 
– Journal age (archive vs current) 
– Journal Subject 
– Overall usage trends 
– Configuration options in Discovery services 
• Expand pool of libraries 
• Perhaps explore WHY
Sharing Data 
• With participating libraries 
– Customized reports for each library 
• With participating publishers 
– Customized reports for each publisher 
– Presentations as requested 
• With discovery vendors 
– Presentations as requested 
• In publications and presentations 
– Maintaining anonymity of data
Presentations 
• Ithaka Sustainable Scholarship Conference (October 2013) 
• Charleston Conference (Nov 2013) http://sched.co/17A3Kun 
• ER&L/Library Journal Webinar (December 2013) 
• Shangai Jiao Tong Univ / Beijing Univ Forum (Jan 2014) 
• SCELC Colloquium (March 2014) http://goo.gl/WmJoIw 
• ER&L (Mar 2014) http://bit.ly/discovery-impact-erl2014 
• UKSG (April 2014) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_2ycMk_9fA 
• Presentations to three publishers (Spring-Summer 2014) 
– More to come

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Discovery study detailed results 20140728

  • 1. Discovery or Displacement? A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study of the Effect of Discovery Systems on Online Journal Usage July 23, 2014 Michael Levine-Clark, University of Denver John McDonald, University of Southern California Jason Price, SCELC Consortium
  • 2. Why Do We Use Discovery Services? • Too many sources of information – Specialized – Confusing – What’s the right specialized database for my subject? • Why do you search in one place for an article, another place for a different article, another for a book?
  • 3. Terminology Discovery Tool = Discovery Layer = Discovery Service = Discovery System
  • 4.
  • 5. Web-scale discovery services • Single source for finding information – Books – Articles – Local content • Metadata and/or full text • Content is pre-indexed and/or pre-harvested • Single fast search ILS Publisher Metadata MLA Bibliograph y Institutional Repository HathiTrust Discovery Service
  • 6. Does implementation of a discovery service impact usage of publisher-hosted journal content?
  • 7. What did we measure? • Whether there is an effect • NOT why that effect exists (that’s a future study!)
  • 8. Publisher-hosted journals are only part of the picture eBooks, pBooks, newspaper articles, aggregator journal content, etc. publisher journal content The six publishers in this study
  • 9. Journals Traffic Sources 52.3 12.4 32.5 2.8 1 Open web search Library referrals Social media Academic N/A (SAGE, Conrad ALPSP 2013)
  • 10. An assumption • At any given institution, given a relatively stable user base, the total search effort will remain roughly the same.
  • 11. Discovery services  Will take up an increasing amount of a finite time for searching  Will draw users from other (more or less efficient) search tools  Will alter the overall productivity of searches (users will find more or less)  Will alter the overall efficiency of users (users will access more or less full-text)
  • 12. • 33 Libraries Dataset – 28 US, 2 CA, 1 each from UK, AUS, NZ – WorldCat book holdings > Average: 1,114,193 ; Range: ~300k to ~2.6mil – 4 discovery groups, of 6 libraries each – 1 control group, 9 libraries • Implementation dates (Discovery Libraries): > 2010 (3), 2011 (19), 2012 (2) • 6 Publishers • 9,206 Journals • 163,545 Usable Observations
  • 13. Methodology Compared COUNTER JR1 total full text article views for the 12 months before vs 12 months after implementation date Start June 2010 Implementation May 2011 May 2012 End Year 1 Year 2 Included implementation month in Year 1 to ensure that both periods included an entire academic year
  • 14. Examine Data for Outliers
  • 15. Analyzing Usage Change: % vs Total Use 12 months before Use 12 months after % Change Total Change Journal A 500 600 20% 100 Journal B 5 15 200% 10 Which is the better measure? Is it the same for publisher- & journal-level data?
  • 17. Journals by Library & Service EDS Primo Summon WorldCat Control
  • 18. Average Journal Usage by Library
  • 19. Testable Effects • Discovery Tool – Implemented by multiple libraries – Used to find content from all publishers • Publisher – Accessible in all discovery tools – Accessible across multiple libraries • Library – Uses content from multiple publishers – Uses only one discovery tool (so only within DT)
  • 20. Full Model Including Discovery Service, Publisher, and Library Including Discovery Service, Publisher, and Library
  • 22. How does usage change differ across discovery services? Letters indicate statistically significant differences (Tukey multiple comparisons, p < .05) A C D B B
  • 23. How does usage change differ across publishers? Letters indicate statistically significant differences (Tukey multiple comparisons, p < .01) C Publisher (sorted by Mean Change) D B B B A
  • 24. How does usage change differ across publishers?
  • 25. Does usage change vary across libraries? Institution (sorted by Mean Change)
  • 26. Usage Change Per Institution: All Journals Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 27. 6.32 Usage Change By Institution: Pub 1 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 28. Usage Change By Institution: Pub 2 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 29. Usage Change By Institution: Pub 3 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 30. Usage Change By Institution: Pub 4 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 31. Usage Change Per Institution: Pub 5 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 32. Usage Change by Institution: Pub 6 Control EDS Primo Summon WCL
  • 33. Publisher 1 by Discovery System
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. Publisher 2 by Discovery System
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Publisher 3 by Discovery System
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Publisher 4 by Discovery System
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57. Publisher 5 by Discovery System
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. Publisher 6 by Discovery System
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69. Next Steps • Design & test for effects of: – Aggregator full text availability – Journal age (archive vs current) – Journal Subject – Overall usage trends – Configuration options in Discovery services • Expand pool of libraries • Perhaps explore WHY
  • 70. Sharing Data • With participating libraries – Customized reports for each library • With participating publishers – Customized reports for each publisher – Presentations as requested • With discovery vendors – Presentations as requested • In publications and presentations – Maintaining anonymity of data
  • 71. Presentations • Ithaka Sustainable Scholarship Conference (October 2013) • Charleston Conference (Nov 2013) http://sched.co/17A3Kun • ER&L/Library Journal Webinar (December 2013) • Shangai Jiao Tong Univ / Beijing Univ Forum (Jan 2014) • SCELC Colloquium (March 2014) http://goo.gl/WmJoIw • ER&L (Mar 2014) http://bit.ly/discovery-impact-erl2014 • UKSG (April 2014) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_2ycMk_9fA • Presentations to three publishers (Spring-Summer 2014) – More to come

Editor's Notes

  1. This graph shows the average usage by library, with blue being the “Before usage” and red being the “After Usage”. As you can see, a few libraries saw large average declines in usage (first column and third column), while most others saw slight or modest increases in usage after implementation.