These are the slides I used for my talk on attribution at the Online Retailer conference in Sydney (July 2015).

1. It’s a Brave New World
of Marketing Attribution
An Introduction to Attribution
Scott Arbeitman | Digital Manager | @friendofasquid

3. Attribution:
What and Why?

4. The allocation of gross profit generated by your
marketing touch points.
Attribution

5. Maximise profit by optimally allocating your
marketing resources.
Goal

6. Prospecting
Consider this Path to Conversion
Branded Search Remarketing $100

7. The Costs are Known
$25 $5 $10
Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing
Cost
$100

8. How Should We Allocate Credit?
$25 $5 $10
? ? ?Credit
Cost
Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

9. Let’s Use an Attribution Model
$25 $5 $10
Credit
Cost
$10 $10 $80
Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

10. And Then We Can Evaluate ROI
$25 $5 $10
Credit
Cost
$10 $10 $80
ROI -60% 100% 700%
Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

11. So Remarketing is Awesome!
$25 $5 $10
Credit
Cost
$10 $10 $80
ROI -60% 100% 700%
Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

13. Every ROI figure assumes an attribution model.
Remember

14. Approaches to
Attribution Modelling
Rules-Based and Algorithmic

15. Rules-Based
Attribution
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
George E. P. Box

16. Rules-Based Attribution
If your product is an impulse buy, consider last-click.
If your product requires consideration, consider linear.
Credit: Studio Syrup http://bit.ly/1JIa5Yt
If you only use one paid channel, consider first-click.

17. Algorithmic Attribution
A Better Approach

18. Attribution by
Engagement

19. Building an Engagement Model
• Observe on-site engagement by medium.
• Create a score for different events.
• Assign a score to each medium.

20. Example Scoring System
Event Score
Landing Page / Content 1
Home Page 2
Category Page 3
Product Page 4
Add to Cart 5
Transaction 6

21. Prospecting
Branded Search
Remarketing
$100
7 $35 $25 40%
5 $25 $5 400%
8 $40 $10 300%
Scores
Attributed
Profit
Media
Cost
ROI

22. Attribution by
Experimentation

23. Incremental Value of Branded Search
• Ever day, randomly toggle branded search on and off.
• Check for differences in daily profit when on versus
off.
• Infer ROI.

24. Incremental Value of Remarketing
• Use your A/B testing tool to run remarketing tag as a
variant.
• Check for revenue lift in treatment versus control.
• Infer ROI.

25. Attribution by Game
Theory

26. Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100
Prospecting Branded Search $90
Prospecting $85
The Shapley value, like our intuition,
suggests prospecting is awesome.

27. Prospecting
Branded Search
Remarketing
$100
$85 $25 240%
$5 $5 0%
$10 $10 0%
Attributed Profit
Media
Cost
ROI

28. Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100
Prospecting Branded Search $90
Prospecting $85
$25(No Advertising)

29. Prospecting
Branded Search
Remarketing
$100
$60 $25 140%
$5 $5 0%
$10 $10 0%
Attributed Profit
Media
Cost
ROI
Subtract $25 because of
Baseline Sales

30. Common Problems

31. Cross-Device

32. Offline Activity

33. Bellroy Retailers Nearby (in Case You’re Interested)
Offline Conversions

34. Attribution Isn’t Free
Cost
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Before Attribution Pilot Quick Wins Scale Up
Media Cost Attribution Cost

35. Impressions Matter

36. Not Always Actionable

37. Getting Started with
Attribution

38. Suggested Roadmap
• Find an appropriate rules-based model.
• Run some simple experiments.
• Decide if algorithmic attribution is right for you.
• Validate.

39. Questions?