A lecture that frames the question of design for sustainability for the second semester master in Industrial Design at Aalborg University

1. & Nicola Morelli 2. Semester Master ID

5. Speed of the growth Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

6. Exponential Growth Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

7. Exponential Growth exercise Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the plant were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, chocking off the other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily plant seems small, so you decide not to worry about it until it covers half of the pond. On what day it will be?

8. Doubling Times S o urce: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future Growth rate (% p.y) Doubling time (Years) 0.1 700 0.5 140 1 70 2 35 3 23 4 18 5 14 7 10 10 7

9. Nigeria’s Population with continued exponential growth Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future Year Population (millions) 1990 118 2014 236 2038 472 2062 944 2086 1888

10. World demographic transitions Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

11. industrialized and developing countries Sweden England and Wales Japan Taiwan Egypt Mexico Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

12. The growth will continue… Source: D.H.Meadows, D.L.Meadows, J. Randers: BEYOND THE LIMITS, Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

13. Food production in world regions South America Africa North America East Asia Middle East Western Europe The total production of food is increased, though, in the poorest countries, the per capita production is not changed, as the population increased with the same speed

14. The discovery of limits

19. For a sustainable development

20. Sustainable Development Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Gro Harlem Brundtland, (1987) Our Common Future

21. Unbalance

22. CO2 emission Marque: AUDI Range: A4 Fuel: PETROL Transmission: MANUAL Doorplan: 4 SAL Trim: QUATTRO Model Introduction Date: 2001-01 Engine (cc): 2976 CO 2 Level (g/km): 252 Marque: FORD Range: FOCUS Fuel: DIESEL Transmission: MANUAL Doorplan: 4 SAL Trim: GHIA TDDI Model Introduction Date: 2001-02 Engine (cc): 1753 CO 2 Level (g/km): 144

23. Different impact of energy use

24. Ecological unbalance

27. How much should we reduce? I = M x P x W where I = Environmental Impact P = population W = Average Wealth M = Metabolism (Quantity of resources per unit of services)

28. How much should we reduce? If (in 50 Years) ECO-EFFICIENCY (E) = 1/M = 10 =90% I = 0.5 P = 2 W = 2.5 then 0.5 = 2 x 2.5 x M M = 1/10

29. Variations of the model 2.5 2.5 Low High Productivity Growth % per year 2.0 North 3.5 South 2.5 North 5.5 South 2.5 North 7.5 South 2.5 North 8.0 South

31. Are we thinking RADICALLY enough?

33. Strategies for resource reduction Resources from the planet Biosphere Technosphere Sociosphere Waste

34. Resources from the planet Biosphere Technosphere Waste Sociosphere Strategies for resource reduction Optimizing the system by reusing resources

35. Resources from the planet Biosphere Technosphere Sociosphere Waste Dematerialisation Strategies for resource reduction

36. Optimising the system by reusing resources Row materials Production Utilization Waste Re-use Repair Rebuild Recycle

38. Energy production during the life cycle Production Production Use Use

39. Innovation and efficiency Appliance Bought 1980 kWh pa Bought 1992 kWh pa Annual rate of change, 1980-1992 (% pa) Refrigerator - single door 650 536 -1.6 - 2 dr cyclic defrost 1100 826 -2.4 - 2 dr frost free 1300 1097 -1.4 Freezer 680 664 -0.2 Dishwasher 610 575 -0.5 Clothes washer 1700 1560 -0.8 Airconditioner - reverse cycle 800 700 -1.1 - cooling only 570 460 -1.2

40. Durability and innovation Product life extension may not save resources if new products are introduced which use less resources in the use phase

43. Dematerialisation of the system Resources from the planet Biosphere Technosphere Sociosphere Waste

44. Strategies for resource reduction Resources from the planet Biosphere Technosphere Sociosphere Waste Dematerialisation

45. Dematerialisation

46. Dematerialisation Considering the total material input an appropriate measure of the potential disturbance of our host system "the Earth" the reduction of material flows is regarded a necessary (although not in all cases sufficient) means of reducing the pressure of humankind on the global environment in a directionally-safe manner. (Wuppertal Institute, Sustainable Europe Project, http://www.wupperinst.org/Projekte/SuE/HTMLtexts/index.html) Reduction of material flows in the economic system

51. Ownership VS utilisation

52. QUESTIONS?

54. Choosing the future

55. The future and the present: Backcasting Future Present Future Future

56. From Present to Sustainable Future(s) Present Sustainable Futures Technical Horizon Socio-cultural Horizon

61. Component Product Production system Consumption Incremental Radical New materials Improved efficiency Modular systems Product redesign New product families New distribution systems Scenarios for new lifestyles Social sustainability

71. Examples

73. Life 2.0 the platform

76. QUESTIONS?

77. CASES Cyclo-Pouce Senior club No profit book exchange