Following the Government’s endorsement of the National Statistician’s recommendation on ‘The census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales’, the ONS Beyond 2011 Programme has been closed and replaced by the new Census Transformation Programme. The new programme is focusing on developing the strategies and plans needed for delivery of the following major strands of work:- • an online census in 2021; • integrated statistical outputs that make use of administrative data and surveys in conjunction with the census; • a recommendation for the future provision of population statistics beyond 2021. Strand 3 continues with research carried out in the Beyond 2011 Programme exploring the potential of administrative data and surveys as a future alternative to traditional Census taking beyond 2021. Building upon the concept of ‘Statistical Population Datasets’ derived through anonymous linkage of multiple administrative sources, the ONS plans to release a series of annual ‘trial output’ statistics to deliver early benefits and engage users with the development and evaluation of methods. ‘Trial outputs’ are intended to illustrate what might be realised from administrative data, in particular the range and frequency of outputs, and the potential for small area statistics. The first release will focus on local authority population counts at age/sex level. Subsequent annual releases will aspire to produce smaller area population counts and additional outputs on households, income and ethnicity, subject to data access and quality. This presentation will outline ONS plans to deliver trial outputs in the run up to the 2021 Census.

1. Delivering early benefits and
research outputs using
administrative data
BSPS 2015
Natalie Shorten - Census Transformation Programme
natalie.shorten@ons.gsi.gov.uk

2. Overview
• Outline of Census Transformation Programme
• Progress so far
• Plans for publishing admin data research outputs
2

3. National Statistician’s recommendation
• An online census of all households and communal
establishments in 2021 - with support for those who are
unable to complete the census online.
AND
• Increased use of administrative data and surveys in
order to enhance the statistics from the 2021 census and
improve annual statistics between censuses.
➢Make the best use of all available data to provide the population
statistics required.
AND
➢Offer a springboard to the greater use of administrative data and
annual surveys in the future.

4. Census Transformation Programme
initiated
1. 2021 online Census operation
• Developing and implementing 2021 online Census
2. Integrated population statistics outputs
• Producing and enhancing census outputs with admin and
survey data
• Research outputs from 2015 onwards
3. Beyond 2021
• Acquire new administrative data
• Develop new methods using admin data and surveys
Three strands:

5. Aspirations and Expectations
• Lots of potential with admin data
• Aiming to replicate as many census outputs as
possible using admin data (and surveys) by 2021
• Research update and outputs published each year,
subject to data access and quality
• New integrated census and admin data outputs,
subject to data access and quality
• Building towards a recommendation in 2023 on the
future of Census and population statistics
• No new surveys before 2021 – use existing surveys
and censuses to simulate surveys
5

6. Potential admin data for census topics
Topic Source
Household composition Various
Income HMRC / DWP
Economic status HMRC / DWP
Health status (index?)/conditions HSCIC / NHS Wales
Qualifications Census / DfE / BIS
Industry of employer HMRC?
Carers HMRC / DWP (limited)
Ethnicity NHS (quality?)
HMRC / DWP (limited)
School Census, HESA, DFE/BIS Learner
Record
Activity data * HMRC / DWP
DVLA
HSCIC / NHS Wales
* Helps identify ‘active’ or ‘inactive’ records e.g. persons in UK or abroad
6

7. Data already acquired
Dataset: Content includes:
NHS Patient Register Date of birth, sex, address/geography, out of
contact indicator, registration type
Customer Information System Date of birth, sex, address/geography, date of
death, last time address was updated
Higher Education Statistical Agency: Student
record
Date of birth, sex, home postcode, term-time
postcode, ethnicity
The English and the Welsh School Census Date of birth, sex, address/geography, ethnicity
7

8. Producing population estimates from
admin data and surveys
NHS Patient
Register
DWP/HMRC
Customer
Information
System
1%
coverage
survey
HESA data
(students)
population
estimates
Statistical Population
Dataset (SPD)
8

9. Producing population counts from
admin data and surveys
NHS Patient
Register
DWP/HMRC
Customer
Information
System
HESA data
(students)
population
counts
Statistical Population
Dataset (SPD)
9

10. Admin data based population counts
(SPD) compared to the 2011 Census
91% of LA total population
counts within 3.8% of
Census estimate in 2011
Admin data
method
lower than
2011 Census
Admin data
method
higher than
2011 Census
10

11. Admin based population counts
compared to 2011 Census by age/sex
Males and females (where SPD is higher or lower than Census)
%
-8.00%
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
0to4
5to9
10to14
15to19
20to24
25to29
30to34
35to39
40to44
45to49
50to54
55to59
60to64
65to69
70to74
75to79
80to84
85+
SPD5 to Official EstimatesComparison
Males and Females (where Comparison data is higher or lower than Official
Estimates) %
Males Females 11

12. Changes to SPD
• Updated SPD to create SPDX
• Basis of stable series for Research Outputs
• Combined rules from previous SPDs
• Use Patient Register only for 0-4 year olds
• Students counted if on HESA and either PR
or CIS
• Using extra info from CIS about people
indicating they are abroad

13. Improved admin based population counts
(SPDX) compared to 2011 Census by age/sex
-8.00%
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
0to4
5to9
10to14
15to19
20to24
25to29
30to34
35to39
40to44
45to49
50to54
55to59
60to64
65to69
70to74
75to79
80to84
85+
SPDx v0.1 to Official Estimates Comparison
Males and Females (where SPD is higher or lower than Official Estimates)
%
Males Females
Males and females (where SPDX is higher or lower than Census)
%
13

14. Improved admin based population counts
(SPDX) compared to 2013 MYEs by age/sex
14
Males and females (where SPDX is higher or lower than official
estimates) %

15. Improved admin data based population
counts (SPDX) compared to the 2011 Census
94% of LA total population
counts within 3.8% of Census
estimate in 2011
Admin data
method
lower than
2011 Census
Admin data
method
higher than
2011 Census
15

16. SPDX difference to 2013 mid-year
population by LA
Admin data
method
lower than
2011 Census
Admin data
method
higher than
2011 Census
93% of LA total population
counts within 3.8% of mid-year
estimate in 2013

17. Aims of publishing admin based research
outputs
New annual admin based research outputs beginning
Autumn 2015 to enable:
• feedback from users on quality
• methods to be improved through time
• operationalise procedures
• users to derive early benefits
Aim to demonstrate improvements each year in:
• breadth (topics) and/or
• (geographical) detail and/or
• accuracy/timeliness
17

18. What’s included in the 2015 release?
The 2015 release will include:
• Research outputs for each local authority in England and Wales as
a series of population counts for 2011, 2013 and 2014 by 5 year age
groups and sex
• In addition to the methodology section, there will be an analysis
section, comparing the population counts to the ONS mid-year
population estimates
• Case studies for a selection of LAs to highlight some of the quality
issues associated with the use of admin data
• Interactive tools to facilitate user analysis
18

19. Admin based research update from 2016
onwards
Two series for population counts will be produced
annually:
• Population counts from the 2015 method (SPDX)
• A developmental series of population counts with
updated methodology each year
Expanding the topics will depend on data access
and quality. Our aim is to include:
• Counts at single year of age and output area level
• Number of households (by Local Authority)
• Income statistics
• Health and/or qualifications statistics 19

20. Annual timeline
JulJun OctSep DecNov Jan Feb AprMar MayAug
Publish
research
outputs
Research
Conference
Winter User
‘Roadshows’
Annual
Beyond 2021
assessment
Annual
MYEs
published

21. Any Questions?
21