4. I The Classical Model:
Optimizing
Optimizing: Make the Best Decision
1. Define the Problems
2. Establish Goals and Objectives
3. Generate all Possible Alternatives
4. Consider the Consequences of all Alternatives
5. Evaluate all Alternatives
6. Select the Best Alternative
7. Implement and Evaluate the Decision
5. Some Decision Making
Assumptions
Assumption One: Administrative decision making is a dynamic
process that solves some organizational problems and creates
others.
•Always more problems
•No final solutions
Assumption Two: Complete rationality in decision making is
impossible;
Thus, administrators seek to satisfice rather than optimize. Why?
•Optimize--the Best Decision
•Satisfice-- “Good Enough”
•Bounded Rationality--Best of a narrow set of
alternatives.
6. Decision Making Assumptions
Assumption Three:
Values are an integral part of decision making.
Assumption Four: Decision making is a general pattern of action
found in the rational administration of all tasks and functions.
•Define the problem
•Analyze the difficulties in the situation
•Establish criteria for a satisfactory decision
•Develop a strategy of action
•Initiate a plan of action
•Evaluate the outcomes
•Tasks of Administration: C&I, supervision, finance & business, PR, etc.
•Functions of Administration: policy, resources, executive action
7. II The Administrative Model:
Satisficing
Satisficing: Make a Satisfactory Decision
Situati
on
Recognize and Define the Problem
Analyze the Difficulties
•Get the Relevant Facts
•Classify the Problem
•Specify Problem
Establish Criteria for a
Develop a Plan of Action
•Consider Alternatives
•Weigh Consequences of Each Alternative
•Deliberate
•Select Course of Action
Initiate Action Plan
•Program
•Communicate
•Monitor
•Appraise
8. II Steps in Administrative Model:
Satisficing
Step 1: Recognize and Define the Problem or Issue
•Be sensitive to difficulties.
•Define the problem: conceptualize it.
•Don’t define problem either too narrowly or
broadly.
•What is the short-term problem?
•What is the long-term problem?
9. Satisficing
Step 2: Analyze the Difficulties in Existing Situation
•Classify the problem.
•New problem or Old?
•Generic or Unique?
•Routine or Novel?
•Two common mistakes:
•Treat routine problem as new problem.
•Treat new problem as an old one.
•Get the Relevant Facts
•What is involved?
•Why?
•Where? And When?
•To what extent?
10. Satisficing
Step 3: Establish Criteria for a Satisfactory Outcome
•What are the minimum objectives to be
achieved.
•Compare your “musts” with your “wants.”
•Compare the ideal with satisfactory.
•What is good enough?
•The minimums that you must get to have a
satisfactory decision--the boundary conditions.
11. Satisficing
Step 4: Develop an Action Plan or Strategy
Warnings:
• Do not decide questions that are not pertinent.
• Do not decide prematurely.
• Do not make decisions that cannot be effective.
• Do not make decisions that others should make.
Developing a strategy is the heart of the decision-making process.
1. Specify your Alternatives.
2. Predict the Consequences.
3. Deliberate and Develop a Plan
Let’s examine each aspect of developing a strategy of action.
12. Develop Plan of Action
1. Specify Alternatives
•Develop a good list of alternatives--your options.
•Generally speaking the more options the better, but try for at least a
dozen; time is a constraint.
•Search for novel and creative options.
•Pause and reflect; avoid simple dichotomies.
•Always consider “doing nothing” as your first option.
In brief--
•Make few dichotomous distinctions.
•Use divergent thinking strategies.
•Make and take time to develop a good set of alternatives.
13. 2. Predict Consequences
For each alternative, predict the probable
consequences.
•Often the development of alternatives
and consequences occur together.
•Try to anticipate the unexpected.
•Groups are often important at this
stage because the help gauge the possible
outcomes.
14. 3. Deliberate and Select Course of Action
•Reflectively analyze your options and their consequences.
•Develop a plan with contingencies.
•Start with first option and then go to second, third, etc.
depending on the actual consequences.
•Think as many steps ahead as you can.
•Be ready to shift plan if unexpected happens.
•If you cannot find an acceptable alternative, be prepared to
lower your aspiration level--lower criteria of satisfaction.
•Use some simple heuristics if possible.
•Be prepared to rethink your entire strategy if necessary.
•Develop and exit strategy
15. Final Step in Satisficing
Step 5: Initiate and evaluate your plan of action
•Program.
•Communicate.
•Monitor.
•Assess success using criteria of
satisfaction.
•The end is usually a new beginning.
16. TRAPS IN DECISION MAKING TO AVOID
Anchoring Trap:
Giving disproportional weight to initial information
Comfort Trap:
A bias toward alternatives that support the status quo
Recognition Trap:
Tendency to place a higher value on that which is familiar
Representative Trap:
Tendency to see others as representative of the typical stereotype
Sunk-Cost Trap:
Tendency to make decisions that justify previous decisions that are
not working.
17. Framing Trap:
Framing of the problem impacts the eventual solution (Be careful.)
Prudence Trap:
Tendency to be overcautious when faced with high-stakes
decisions
Memory Trap:
Tendency to base predictions on memory of past events, which are
often over-influenced by both recent and dramatic events
TRAPS IN DECISION MAKING TO AVOID
18. III The Incremental Model:
Muddling
Muddling: Successive Limited Comparison
Charles Lindblom describes the way most decisions are made as the
process of muddling through.
• A small and limited set of options are considered.
• Options are only marginally different from existing situation.
• Options are considered by comparing actual consequences.
• Try the option and then observe consequences.
• If consequences are fine, then a little more.
• If consequences are negative, then back off and try something
different.
• Focus is on outcomes and trial and error.
19. Muddling Through
Summary of Distinctive Features
• Means-ends analysis is inappropriate because objectives and
generating alternatives occur simultaneously.
• Good solutions are what decision makers agree to regardless
of objectives.
• Alternatives and outcomes are drastically reduced by
considering only options similar to current state.
• Analysis is restricted to differences between existing state and
proposed alternatives.
• Muddling eschews theory in favor of successive comparison of
concrete, practical alternatives.
20. IV The Mixed Scanning Model:
An Adaptive Strategy
Mixed Scanning is guided by two questions:
1. What is the organization’s mission?
2. What decisions move the organization towards its mission and policy?
Mixed scanning is a combination of the administrative model and mixed
scanning model; it is directed, incremental change.
Mixed scanning has its roots in medicine.
• A broad goal, mission, or policy guides the decision process.
• Decisions are made incrementally, but with the broad goal in mind.
• Consequences are assessed in terms of the goal.
• Decisions are made with partial information.
• Then further small decisions are made if progress is good.
21. Principles of Mixed Scanning
1.Use focused trial and error.
2.Be tentative--proceed with caution.
3.If uncertain, procrastinate.
4.Stagger your decisions in stages.
5.If uncertain, factionalize your decisions.
6.Hedge your bets.
7.Be prepared to reverse your decisions.
22. Mixed Scanning
Summary of Distinctive Features
• Broad organization policy gives direction and provides
guidance.
• Good decisions have satisfactory outcomes and are consistent
with policy and mission.
• The search for options is limited to those close to the problem.
• Information is incomplete but action essential.
• Theory, experience, and successive comparisons are used
together.
24. Swift and Smart DM Rules
Satisficing Rule: Optimizing is impossible in school administration: learn
to satisfice.
Framing Rule: Frame problems in positive terms for positive results.
Default Rule: Consider as a first option “doing nothing.”
Simplicity rule: Simplicity trumps complexity; start simple.
Uncertainty Rule: Uncertain environments often require ignoring
information; End trust your intuition in this regard.
Take-the-Best Rule: Choose the first satisfactory option.
Transparency Rule: Make transparency in decision making a habit of
thought and action.
Contingency Rule: Reflect on your successes and failures; think
conditionally.
Participation Rule: Involve others in decisions when you deem they have
relevant knowledge, a personal stake, and are trustworthy.
25. Practical Imperatives
• Use satisficing models of decision making: Optimizing
is impossible.
• Frame problems in ways that enhance positive,
productive solutions: Framing does affect solutions.
• View decision making as a continuous process: There
are no final solutions.
• View problems in terms of both short- and long-term
goals: Immediate actions should be consistent with
long-term goals.
• Employ decision-making heuristics carefully: Avoid
their hidden traps.
26. Practical Imperatives
• Use adaptive satisficing when information is vague or
overwhelming or when time is of the essence: Adapt
decision making to these decision constraints.
• Employ objectives, mission, or policy to guide your
decisions making: Adaptive satisficing needs direction.
• Decide on the appropriate decision-making strategy:
Assess the sufficiency of information, available time,
and the importance of the decision before deciding.
• Use soft vigilance to solve problems under pressure:
Hypervigilance produces panic.
• Remember there are no final solutions, but only
satisfactory solutions for the present.
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