The document discusses a workshop on future climate projections and their applications in South Asia. It notes that while climate change risks are significant for the region, uptake of available projections is limited due to several factors. These include projections not being relevant to decision-making, and different models and methods producing complicated information. The workshop aims to address this by consolidating existing knowledge, engaging with information users and providers, developing demonstration climate risk products, and building capacity. The overall project, CARISSA, seeks to improve use of regional climate change information to better inform adaptation decisions through co-production of services.

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SCIPSA
Rebecca Parfitt – 30 October 2018
WORK PACKAGE 2:
Strengthening Climate
Information Partnerships –
South Asia
CARISSA
Climate Analysis for Risk Information and Services in South Asia
Dr Joseph Daron
Science Manager, International Climate Services
joseph.daron@metoffice.gov.uk
Workshop on Future Climate Projections and Their Applications
in South Asia
29th to 31st January 2019 - ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal

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Rationale
Limited uptake
Despite the risks posed by climate change to the South Asia region, the uptake and use of available regional future
climate projections is currently limited (ARRCC scoping review, Singh et al 2017).
Decision relevance
In many cases, a gap remains between the data available and the future climate risk information that is needed to
inform decision-making.
Complicated and contradictory information
Whilst multiple national projects, regional research programmes, and international initiatives have produced climate
change projections for the region, combining and communicating this range of information (based on different models
and methods) to different stakeholders presents significant scientific and practical challenges.

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Projected changes in total annual rainfall (horizontal axis) and annual mean temperature (vertical axis) in the Philippines by mid-century
(2036–2065) relative to 1971–2000 for the RCP8.5 scenario using different models and methods. (Daron et al 2018)
An example from the Philippines

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Decision-making
and Policy
Space
Global
climate
model data
Past climate
data
Regional
downscaled
data
Expert
judgement
Indigenous
knowledge
Expert
judgement
Evidence
Context

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Objectives (Year 1):
1. Consolidate existing knowledge and develop approach to “distilling” multi-model, multi-method climate
projections
2. Engage with providers and users of climate change information to identify opportunities for co-producing
climate services
3. Develop a pilot knowledge product to demonstrate how climate change risk information can be
communicated for a specific sector or decision-making context in the focal countries
4. Strengthen capacity of a) climate service providers to develop user-relevant information, and b) targeted
communities and intermediaries to use future climate information.
5. Recommendations for follow-on activities in years 2 to 4
Aim of CARISSA
CARISSA aims to improve the uptake and use of regional climate change information in South Asia
to better understand and articulate future climate risks to guide adaptation decisions.

6. Met Office CARISSA team
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2017, Met Office
Work Package Lead
Joseph Daron
Science Manager, International Climate Services
Work Stream Lead
Rachel McInnes
Science Manager, Climate Information
for International Development
Cathryn Fox
Scientist, Climate Information
for International Development
Katy Richardson
Senior Scientist, Climate Information
for International Development
Work Stream 2 Lead
Nicola Golding
Science Manager, International
Climate Services
Ben Harrison
Scientist, International
Climate Services
Bernd Eggen
Senior Scientist, International
Climate Services
Workstream 1 - Climate data and analysis
Workstream 2 - User engagement and climate service co-production
Workstream 3 – Capacity development

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Timescale
WP1 - IBF
Impact-based weather
forecasts
WP2 - SCIPSA
Seasonal climate outlooks
WP3 - CARISSA
Future climate change
projections
WP4 - VALUE
Strengthening knowledge on gaps &
socio-economic value of services
Increasing resilience to weather and climate
risks through enhanced regional coordination,
capacity and tools for decision-driven weather
and climate services
Identify Actors
& Build
Partnerships
Co-production figure adapted from WISER co-production guidance
Co-explore
need
Co-develop
solution
Co-deliver
solution
Evaluate
Monitoring,
knowledge
exchange &
learning
Co-production Process
REGIONAL
INFORMATION
AND
SERVICES
GLOBAL DATA
SCIENCE EXCHANGE AND CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT