- USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report showed February placements were 13.5% lower than the previous year and feedlot inventories on March 1 declined 7% year-over-year, the largest decline since 2009. This suggests fed cattle supplies will tighten significantly in the second half of 2013.
- USDA's monthly Cold Storage report showed total meat and poultry in freezers was up 5.7% from the previous year. Increased chicken and turkey stocks accounted for most of the rise, with chicken up 6.1% and turkey up 14.1% year-over-year. Pork and beef stocks were also higher but increased less.
- Large poultry supplies, particularly chicken,
- September cattle placements were down 19.6% from last year, the lowest on record for September, implying very tight fed cattle supplies in spring 2013.
- Cattle on feed in October was down 2.6% from last year, close to analysts' estimates.
- Tight feeder cattle supplies and high feed prices have contributed to lower cattle placements despite high cattle futures prices. Placements are expected to remain low through tight supplies.
The document summarizes a USDA report on cattle inventories and meat supplies. Key points include:
- Total cattle on feed was down 0.6% from a year ago to 10.637 million head due to a 10.9% decline in placements.
- Pork inventories increased sharply, with total stocks up 31.1% to 580.8 million pounds driven by heavy loin and ham supplies.
- Total beef in storage was up slightly while broiler meat supplies declined 5.6% from a year ago.
The document summarizes estimates for USDA's upcoming Cattle on Feed report, which is expected to show lower placements, marketings, and inventories compared to the previous year. Retail meat prices increased in March compared to February for all meats except composite broilers. While retail prices have increased, wholesale and farm values have not risen as much, especially for beef and pork. There is concern that retail prices are rising faster than production costs to keep products moving through the supply chain.
- US meat production was up slightly but remains down year-to-date. Hog and chicken production increased while beef production decreased.
- Livestock prices were mixed - feeder cattle up but fed cattle down slightly. Pork prices decreased across the board.
- Crop prices fell for corn, wheat, and soybeans on the week ahead of the upcoming USDA stocks report. Analyst estimates for the report were provided.
The USDA monthly Cattle on Feed report for August showed the number of cattle in feedlots was 10.656 million head, unchanged from pre-report estimates. July cattle placements were 1.922 million head, lower than last year and estimates. Marketings were 1.913 million head, slightly lower than last year but below estimates. Feedlot inventories are expected to remain below year-ago levels through the remainder of 2012 due to tighter supplies and high feed prices.
Feedlot placements of cattle declined sharply in October, down 12.5% from the previous year, reflecting high feed prices. The number of cattle on feed as of November 1st was down 5.3% from the previous year. Despite fewer cattle being slaughtered, beef production has held steady due to increased carcass weights. However, if carcass weight gains slow, it could pose a risk to the beef market over the winter months. The EPA denied a request to waive the ethanol mandate, disappointing livestock producers who had hoped it would ease pressure on corn supplies.
This document discusses recent changes to USDA agricultural statistics reports and concerns about potential future cuts. It also analyzes current beef and pork packer margins.
The director of statistics at NASS said budgets cuts may eventually force the agency to reduce reports on hogs, grains, cattle and crops. While agriculture has consolidated, most producers still rely on USDA data more than other market participants.
Recent beef packer margins fell below historical averages in the first half of the year and late summer. Pork packer margins rose as animal costs fell faster than revenues due to increasing supplies, though margins fell last week as hog numbers declined slightly.
- Total meat and poultry in freezers on November 30th was 1.956 billion pounds, 8.1% larger than last year but 9.7% lower than October.
- Beef inventories were slightly higher after recent declines, while pork inventories dropped 7.5% versus the 5-year average.
- Chicken stocks increased 3.6% from last year despite a 3.4% monthly drop, while turkey stocks fell 56.9% from October levels.
- September cattle placements were down 19.6% from last year, the lowest on record for September, implying very tight fed cattle supplies in spring 2013.
- Cattle on feed in October was down 2.6% from last year, close to analysts' estimates.
- Tight feeder cattle supplies and high feed prices have contributed to lower cattle placements despite high cattle futures prices. Placements are expected to remain low through tight supplies.
The document summarizes a USDA report on cattle inventories and meat supplies. Key points include:
- Total cattle on feed was down 0.6% from a year ago to 10.637 million head due to a 10.9% decline in placements.
- Pork inventories increased sharply, with total stocks up 31.1% to 580.8 million pounds driven by heavy loin and ham supplies.
- Total beef in storage was up slightly while broiler meat supplies declined 5.6% from a year ago.
The document summarizes estimates for USDA's upcoming Cattle on Feed report, which is expected to show lower placements, marketings, and inventories compared to the previous year. Retail meat prices increased in March compared to February for all meats except composite broilers. While retail prices have increased, wholesale and farm values have not risen as much, especially for beef and pork. There is concern that retail prices are rising faster than production costs to keep products moving through the supply chain.
- US meat production was up slightly but remains down year-to-date. Hog and chicken production increased while beef production decreased.
- Livestock prices were mixed - feeder cattle up but fed cattle down slightly. Pork prices decreased across the board.
- Crop prices fell for corn, wheat, and soybeans on the week ahead of the upcoming USDA stocks report. Analyst estimates for the report were provided.
The USDA monthly Cattle on Feed report for August showed the number of cattle in feedlots was 10.656 million head, unchanged from pre-report estimates. July cattle placements were 1.922 million head, lower than last year and estimates. Marketings were 1.913 million head, slightly lower than last year but below estimates. Feedlot inventories are expected to remain below year-ago levels through the remainder of 2012 due to tighter supplies and high feed prices.
Feedlot placements of cattle declined sharply in October, down 12.5% from the previous year, reflecting high feed prices. The number of cattle on feed as of November 1st was down 5.3% from the previous year. Despite fewer cattle being slaughtered, beef production has held steady due to increased carcass weights. However, if carcass weight gains slow, it could pose a risk to the beef market over the winter months. The EPA denied a request to waive the ethanol mandate, disappointing livestock producers who had hoped it would ease pressure on corn supplies.
This document discusses recent changes to USDA agricultural statistics reports and concerns about potential future cuts. It also analyzes current beef and pork packer margins.
The director of statistics at NASS said budgets cuts may eventually force the agency to reduce reports on hogs, grains, cattle and crops. While agriculture has consolidated, most producers still rely on USDA data more than other market participants.
Recent beef packer margins fell below historical averages in the first half of the year and late summer. Pork packer margins rose as animal costs fell faster than revenues due to increasing supplies, though margins fell last week as hog numbers declined slightly.
- Total meat and poultry in freezers on November 30th was 1.956 billion pounds, 8.1% larger than last year but 9.7% lower than October.
- Beef inventories were slightly higher after recent declines, while pork inventories dropped 7.5% versus the 5-year average.
- Chicken stocks increased 3.6% from last year despite a 3.4% monthly drop, while turkey stocks fell 56.9% from October levels.
Broiler supplies are expected to remain tight through the first half of 2013 due to high feed costs depressing producer margins. The latest USDA report showed a 3.5% reduction in broiler egg sets for the week ending October 20 compared to the same period last year, representing the smallest number of broiler egg sets since March 1994. While one week does not make a trend, the data indicates broiler producers remain in contraction mode due to record high feed prices.
The document summarizes analysts' estimates for US corn and soybean production and ending stocks ahead of the upcoming USDA January report. Analysts on average expect USDA to lower its final 2012 corn production estimate by about 100 million bushels compared to December. Corn exports and ethanol production have declined significantly in recent months. Implied feed use during September to November suggests modestly higher than historical ratios, leaving it unclear what impact this will have on final stocks numbers. Analysts expect tight ending corn stocks of 667 million bushels on average.
Total meat protein supplies were up 2.3% from the previous year for the week ending February 16th. While supplies have been higher than the previous year, retail prices have also risen which has reduced the amount consumers are willing to purchase. Producers have started responding to potential oversupply issues by reducing beef and pork production slightly, but broiler production remains well above last year's levels.
According to the latest USDA survey, total hog and pig inventories were 1.5% larger than the previous year at 65.911 million head. Market hog inventories were up 1.6% and hog slaughter for Q2 2013 is expected to be larger than previously anticipated. Producers intend to farrow fewer hogs over the next two quarters but the pig crop is still expected to be modestly higher due to gains in pigs per litter. Lower corn prices should help contain pork price inflation for the rest of 2013 and 2014.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 11% in March as unseasonably high demand coupled with gas supply constraints pushed wholesale gas prices to record highs in the UK. Despite negative market reaction to Cyprus’s bailout and weak economic numbers from Europe and China, Brent crude oil prices in euro terms rose by 1%. As a result, the Bord Gáis Energy Index now stands at 166, an increase of 8% on March 2012. Severe spikes occurred in the price of prompt UK gas contracts but these did recede back to more acceptable levels, albeit still relatively high. Events in Cyprus and worries over European debt piled on to bearishness in the European coal market, pushing prices lower. The euro
The USDA revised its estimates of broiler and turkey production upwards for 2013. Broiler production is now estimated at 37.519 billion pounds, up 1.7% from last month's estimate and 2.4% higher than 2012 levels. Turkey production is estimated at 6.094 billion pounds, up 2.5% from last month and 3.5% above 2012. The poultry industry appears to have weathered higher feed costs better than expected. Egg sets are up 1.3% from a year ago and production gains in chicken and turkey may impact red meat prices in the short term by providing more affordable protein options.
This document summarizes US livestock imports from Mexico and Canada in 2012. It reports that US imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are expected to reach 1.6 million head, a 13% increase from 2011. Imports of feeder cattle from Canada are estimated at 110,000-115,000 head, down significantly from previous years. US imports of hogs from Canada have also declined substantially in recent years, from around 10 million head in 2007 to an estimated 5.8 million head in 2012.
- Pasture and range conditions in the US continued to deteriorate according to the latest crop progress report. Pastures in Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma were in particularly poor shape, with high percentages rated poor or very poor.
- Conditions this year in the Great Plains and Cornbelt regions, which account for almost 90% of US beef cows, are the worst seen in at least 17 years. Over 60% of pastures in these key regions are rated poor/very poor.
- The comparable year from a conditions perspective appears to be 2006, when pasture conditions in the Great Plains and Southern Plains were similar. Beef cow slaughter that year rose 27% from the prior period. Increased slaughter may also occur
Vol. 10, No. 176 / September 12, 2012
The nearby October live cattle contract jumped 135 points as tight cattle supplies and reluctance from feedlots to sell have buoyed beef and cattle prices heading into the fourth quarter. Placements of cattle on feed in March and April were 10.6% lower than the previous year, contributing to limited supply through August and September. The supply of fed cattle coming to market has been tracking below 2010 and 2011 levels for much of the summer and is expected to remain low in October and November. End users are concerned about product availability in the fourth quarter for items that see strong seasonal demand during the holidays.
The Canadian livestock industry has significantly declined since 2005 due to higher feed costs, disease, and currency appreciation. Statistics show the cattle herd is down 27% and hog breeding sow numbers are down 25% from 2005 levels. While liquidation has slowed, high feed costs continue to squeeze producer margins and further declines in sow numbers and pig farrowings are expected in the coming quarters. Cattle inventories remain below year-ago levels due to a smaller 2011 calf crop.
USDA will release its estimates for US and world agricultural output and usage on September 12th, including corn and soybean estimates. There is disagreement over corn yield estimates, ranging from 117.6 to 124 bushels per acre. Soybean estimates are expected to be slightly lower than August estimates. Cow and bull slaughter has declined significantly compared to last year since mid-August.
1) The document analyzes US consumer demand indexes for major meats (pork, beef, chicken, turkey) in 2012.
2) Demand was mixed in 2012, with beef and turkey demand higher than 2011 but pork and chicken demand lower. However, the changes were small.
3) The demand indexes simply show how demand has shifted relative to the previous year, not explaining the reasons behind the shifts.
US beef exports have been close to year-ago levels over the summer, though shipments to top markets like Mexico and Canada have been lower than last year. Japan has recently overtaken Mexico as the second largest market for US beef exports. Japan is expected to relax restrictions on US beef imports and allow cattle up to 30 months old rather than the current 20 months, which could boost US beef exports to Japan by 50,000 to 75,000 metric tons or around 8.5% of total exports. This increased access to the Japanese market would provide a boost to the US beef industry as exports have diversified to smaller growing markets.
The USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a slight reduction in the breeding herd from last year and a larger market herd, indicating a rapid shift from expansion to contraction. Farrowing intentions, especially for the next quarter, seem low relative to the breeding herd. The report implies lower pork supplies in the next four quarters but slaughter declines may not be as large as expected if sow slaughter increases.
The pork cutout value rose last week, possibly signaling that prices have hit their low point for the fall season. Ham prices increased substantially over the past two weeks to near levels from last year, helping support the overall cutout value despite ample ham supplies in storage. Weaned pig prices also increased significantly and reached their highest levels since February due to tighter supplies and empty hog finishing spaces seeking to be filled.
The Daily Livestock Report will have an abbreviated schedule over the Christmas holiday. There will be no issue on December 25th but regular issues on other days. On December 24th, it will summarize the key USDA cattle and storage reports from the previous day. Other reports on livestock slaughter and eggs/chickens will be released on December 28th. The article then discusses trends in corn basis levels around Omaha over recent years and implications for corn producers and users going forward. Weather conditions are also noted to be important for agricultural markets in the new year.
Vol. 10, No. 194 October 8, 2012
Hog and pork markets have been volatile recently due to fluctuations in supply. Last week's US hog slaughter of 2.355 million head was only slightly larger than the previous week and last year. Additionally, hog weights were up only modestly. As a result, pork supplies have been impacted, causing pork prices to rally by around $10 per hundredweight over the past few weeks. Stronger consumer demand in the fall typically leads to higher per capita pork expenditures, supporting further price increases. Looking ahead, hog supplies are expected to moderate somewhat through the rest of the year.
Este documento menciona varios lugares de interés turístico en el Parque Nacional de Aigüestortes y Lago de San Mauricio como estanques, picos, refugios y vistas panorámicas. Entre los lugares destacados se encuentran el Estany de Sant Maurici, los Encantats, el refugio de Amitges, el Pic de Travessani, la Punta Alta, el Estany Negre, el Estany Gran de Colieto y varios estanques y picos alrededor del macizo de Aigüestortes.
This document presents market trend data for single family home sales in several counties in Massachusetts from January 2012 to February 2015. It includes charts showing average sale prices, number of home sales, and average days on market for Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester, and Plymouth counties. The document was presented by Dickens Pierre-Louis of Rise Up Real Estate Solutions, who provides contact information at the end to inquire about potential rehab projects.
El odio generalmente se asocia con la enemistad y la repulsión hacia algo o alguien. Las personas tienden a evitar o destruir aquello que odian, ya sea a través de insultos o agresiones físicas. Aunque el odio se considera lo opuesto al amor, algunos creen que existe una delgada línea entre ambos sentimientos.
Broiler supplies are expected to remain tight through the first half of 2013 due to high feed costs depressing producer margins. The latest USDA report showed a 3.5% reduction in broiler egg sets for the week ending October 20 compared to the same period last year, representing the smallest number of broiler egg sets since March 1994. While one week does not make a trend, the data indicates broiler producers remain in contraction mode due to record high feed prices.
The document summarizes analysts' estimates for US corn and soybean production and ending stocks ahead of the upcoming USDA January report. Analysts on average expect USDA to lower its final 2012 corn production estimate by about 100 million bushels compared to December. Corn exports and ethanol production have declined significantly in recent months. Implied feed use during September to November suggests modestly higher than historical ratios, leaving it unclear what impact this will have on final stocks numbers. Analysts expect tight ending corn stocks of 667 million bushels on average.
Total meat protein supplies were up 2.3% from the previous year for the week ending February 16th. While supplies have been higher than the previous year, retail prices have also risen which has reduced the amount consumers are willing to purchase. Producers have started responding to potential oversupply issues by reducing beef and pork production slightly, but broiler production remains well above last year's levels.
According to the latest USDA survey, total hog and pig inventories were 1.5% larger than the previous year at 65.911 million head. Market hog inventories were up 1.6% and hog slaughter for Q2 2013 is expected to be larger than previously anticipated. Producers intend to farrow fewer hogs over the next two quarters but the pig crop is still expected to be modestly higher due to gains in pigs per litter. Lower corn prices should help contain pork price inflation for the rest of 2013 and 2014.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 11% in March as unseasonably high demand coupled with gas supply constraints pushed wholesale gas prices to record highs in the UK. Despite negative market reaction to Cyprus’s bailout and weak economic numbers from Europe and China, Brent crude oil prices in euro terms rose by 1%. As a result, the Bord Gáis Energy Index now stands at 166, an increase of 8% on March 2012. Severe spikes occurred in the price of prompt UK gas contracts but these did recede back to more acceptable levels, albeit still relatively high. Events in Cyprus and worries over European debt piled on to bearishness in the European coal market, pushing prices lower. The euro
The USDA revised its estimates of broiler and turkey production upwards for 2013. Broiler production is now estimated at 37.519 billion pounds, up 1.7% from last month's estimate and 2.4% higher than 2012 levels. Turkey production is estimated at 6.094 billion pounds, up 2.5% from last month and 3.5% above 2012. The poultry industry appears to have weathered higher feed costs better than expected. Egg sets are up 1.3% from a year ago and production gains in chicken and turkey may impact red meat prices in the short term by providing more affordable protein options.
This document summarizes US livestock imports from Mexico and Canada in 2012. It reports that US imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are expected to reach 1.6 million head, a 13% increase from 2011. Imports of feeder cattle from Canada are estimated at 110,000-115,000 head, down significantly from previous years. US imports of hogs from Canada have also declined substantially in recent years, from around 10 million head in 2007 to an estimated 5.8 million head in 2012.
- Pasture and range conditions in the US continued to deteriorate according to the latest crop progress report. Pastures in Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma were in particularly poor shape, with high percentages rated poor or very poor.
- Conditions this year in the Great Plains and Cornbelt regions, which account for almost 90% of US beef cows, are the worst seen in at least 17 years. Over 60% of pastures in these key regions are rated poor/very poor.
- The comparable year from a conditions perspective appears to be 2006, when pasture conditions in the Great Plains and Southern Plains were similar. Beef cow slaughter that year rose 27% from the prior period. Increased slaughter may also occur
Vol. 10, No. 176 / September 12, 2012
The nearby October live cattle contract jumped 135 points as tight cattle supplies and reluctance from feedlots to sell have buoyed beef and cattle prices heading into the fourth quarter. Placements of cattle on feed in March and April were 10.6% lower than the previous year, contributing to limited supply through August and September. The supply of fed cattle coming to market has been tracking below 2010 and 2011 levels for much of the summer and is expected to remain low in October and November. End users are concerned about product availability in the fourth quarter for items that see strong seasonal demand during the holidays.
The Canadian livestock industry has significantly declined since 2005 due to higher feed costs, disease, and currency appreciation. Statistics show the cattle herd is down 27% and hog breeding sow numbers are down 25% from 2005 levels. While liquidation has slowed, high feed costs continue to squeeze producer margins and further declines in sow numbers and pig farrowings are expected in the coming quarters. Cattle inventories remain below year-ago levels due to a smaller 2011 calf crop.
USDA will release its estimates for US and world agricultural output and usage on September 12th, including corn and soybean estimates. There is disagreement over corn yield estimates, ranging from 117.6 to 124 bushels per acre. Soybean estimates are expected to be slightly lower than August estimates. Cow and bull slaughter has declined significantly compared to last year since mid-August.
1) The document analyzes US consumer demand indexes for major meats (pork, beef, chicken, turkey) in 2012.
2) Demand was mixed in 2012, with beef and turkey demand higher than 2011 but pork and chicken demand lower. However, the changes were small.
3) The demand indexes simply show how demand has shifted relative to the previous year, not explaining the reasons behind the shifts.
US beef exports have been close to year-ago levels over the summer, though shipments to top markets like Mexico and Canada have been lower than last year. Japan has recently overtaken Mexico as the second largest market for US beef exports. Japan is expected to relax restrictions on US beef imports and allow cattle up to 30 months old rather than the current 20 months, which could boost US beef exports to Japan by 50,000 to 75,000 metric tons or around 8.5% of total exports. This increased access to the Japanese market would provide a boost to the US beef industry as exports have diversified to smaller growing markets.
The USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a slight reduction in the breeding herd from last year and a larger market herd, indicating a rapid shift from expansion to contraction. Farrowing intentions, especially for the next quarter, seem low relative to the breeding herd. The report implies lower pork supplies in the next four quarters but slaughter declines may not be as large as expected if sow slaughter increases.
The pork cutout value rose last week, possibly signaling that prices have hit their low point for the fall season. Ham prices increased substantially over the past two weeks to near levels from last year, helping support the overall cutout value despite ample ham supplies in storage. Weaned pig prices also increased significantly and reached their highest levels since February due to tighter supplies and empty hog finishing spaces seeking to be filled.
The Daily Livestock Report will have an abbreviated schedule over the Christmas holiday. There will be no issue on December 25th but regular issues on other days. On December 24th, it will summarize the key USDA cattle and storage reports from the previous day. Other reports on livestock slaughter and eggs/chickens will be released on December 28th. The article then discusses trends in corn basis levels around Omaha over recent years and implications for corn producers and users going forward. Weather conditions are also noted to be important for agricultural markets in the new year.
Vol. 10, No. 194 October 8, 2012
Hog and pork markets have been volatile recently due to fluctuations in supply. Last week's US hog slaughter of 2.355 million head was only slightly larger than the previous week and last year. Additionally, hog weights were up only modestly. As a result, pork supplies have been impacted, causing pork prices to rally by around $10 per hundredweight over the past few weeks. Stronger consumer demand in the fall typically leads to higher per capita pork expenditures, supporting further price increases. Looking ahead, hog supplies are expected to moderate somewhat through the rest of the year.
Este documento menciona varios lugares de interés turístico en el Parque Nacional de Aigüestortes y Lago de San Mauricio como estanques, picos, refugios y vistas panorámicas. Entre los lugares destacados se encuentran el Estany de Sant Maurici, los Encantats, el refugio de Amitges, el Pic de Travessani, la Punta Alta, el Estany Negre, el Estany Gran de Colieto y varios estanques y picos alrededor del macizo de Aigüestortes.
This document presents market trend data for single family home sales in several counties in Massachusetts from January 2012 to February 2015. It includes charts showing average sale prices, number of home sales, and average days on market for Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester, and Plymouth counties. The document was presented by Dickens Pierre-Louis of Rise Up Real Estate Solutions, who provides contact information at the end to inquire about potential rehab projects.
El odio generalmente se asocia con la enemistad y la repulsión hacia algo o alguien. Las personas tienden a evitar o destruir aquello que odian, ya sea a través de insultos o agresiones físicas. Aunque el odio se considera lo opuesto al amor, algunos creen que existe una delgada línea entre ambos sentimientos.
This document discusses how individuals and companies can protect their reputation through responsible social media use. It cautions that social media is a permanent communication tool and mistakes can damage one's reputation. The document offers tips for maintaining privacy, professionalism, and awareness of current social media trends to avoid potential reputational issues. Group discussion questions focus on steps to take to avoid social media harming one's reputation.
El documento resume las principales economías ilícitas en Colombia, incluyendo la minería ilegal, el tráfico de drogas y el lavado de activos. Explica que la minería ilegal se ha convertido en una fuente importante de financiamiento para grupos armados ilegales y genera problemas ambientales y de seguridad. También describe que Colombia sigue siendo el mayor productor mundial de cocaína y cómo el negocio de las drogas ha tenido un gran impacto económico y social en el país, alimentando el conflicto interno. Finalmente, se
- The January Cattle on Feed report was bullish for cattle prices as January 1 inventories and December placements were lower than expected. Total January 1 feedlot supplies were 5.6% lower than the previous year.
- December placements were 1.664 million head, slightly lower than the previous year but lower than analysts expected, which was a bullish surprise.
- Lower placements over the past 10 months means cattle supplies in feedlots are becoming more front-loaded, with fewer cattle expected to come to market in the near future. Beef supplies are expected to remain limited going forward.
The cattle on feed report showed inventories down 6.2% from a year ago, in line with expectations. Placements were higher than some expected due to high feed prices pushing cattle into feedlots. Meat supplies in cold storage remain above year-ago levels. The hog report showed slaughter down 2.5% from last year while pork production fell 3.1%.
- The USDA cattle on feed report is expected to show inventories down 6.2% from a year ago, implying 668,000 fewer cattle on feed currently compared to last year.
- Analyst estimates for cattle placements in January ranged from a 3% decline to a 4% increase from a year ago, with the average estimate expecting placements to be at the same level as January 2012.
- Marketings of cattle in January are estimated to be 4.7% larger than last year due to an extra marketing day, but the daily average is expected to be about the same as 2012 levels.
The USDA will issue its monthly report on cattle feedlot inventories as of September 1st. Analysts expect total cattle on feed to be similar to last year's levels. However, there is a large range in estimates for cattle placements in August, with most analysts expecting placements to be lower than in August 2011 due to drought impacts and high feed costs. On average, analysts expect placements to be down 7.3% from last year. Cattle marketings in August are also expected to be down slightly from 2011 levels. Overall, the report is expected to show tighter cattle feedlot inventories as placements remain lower than last year.
The drought has continued to impact cattle inventories and beef production in the U.S. Cattle herd numbers are at their lowest since the 1950s and beef cow numbers are the lowest since the 1960s. The ongoing effects of drought, including high feed prices and pasture shortages, have resulted in the premature slaughter of cows and feeder cattle being placed in feedlots earlier than normal. While beef production declined slightly in 2012, it was boosted by increased slaughter weights and imports. U.S. beef exports declined 12% in 2012 due to tight domestic supplies, while imports increased nearly 8% with stronger supplies from Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico. Cattle imports from Canada and Mexico increased in 2012 as well to
- USDA's cattle inventory report found fewer cattle than expected, which will likely increase cattle futures prices. The beef cow herd and calf crop were both at their lowest levels since 1973 and 1942 respectively.
- Cold storage inventories of pork and beef were lower than the previous month but higher than the same month last year. Chicken inventories grew slightly from the previous month.
- The cattle on feed report found inventories close to expectations, and is expected to have a neutral impact on cattle futures prices. Placements in June were lower than the previous year.
Hog futures traded lower on reports of higher hog slaughter and weaker wholesale prices. Hog slaughter was up 1.7% from the same period last year. Producers are expected to market hogs more aggressively, which could lead to lower slaughter levels in April compared to the previous year. Hog carcass weights remain below last year's levels, indicating producers continue marketing hogs at lighter weights. Uncertainty around export demand due to closed markets in Russia and China is negatively impacting hog prices.
Analysts expect declines in key metrics in the upcoming USDA Cattle On Feed report. Placements are forecasted to fall significantly below last year's levels due to lower cattle futures prices and tight grain supplies. February slaughter was down 8.5% from the previous year. March 1 feedlot inventories are estimated to be 10.9 million head, down 759,000 from the prior year which would be the largest annual decline on record. However, beef packing margins have improved recently and may positively impact cattle prices going forward.
- The US Senate passed a measure to shift $55 million within the USDA budget to prevent meat inspection furloughs through September. This averts threatened cuts and will now go to the House for approval.
- Both cattle and hog markets have been disappointing this spring, with pork cutout values softer than normal historically for this time of year. Pork packer margins have improved due to lower hog prices.
- For pork markets to improve, cutout values will need to increase to make room for higher hog prices while maintaining packer margins.
The drought has significantly impacted the cattle industry in several ways:
1) Increased cow slaughter and reduced pastures have negatively affected cattle and beef prices and plans to expand the national cow herd.
2) Higher feed costs and reduced pastures from the drought are expected to reduce pork and poultry production and meat consumption in 2013.
3) Milk production and herd sizes are forecast to decrease in 2013 due to effects of the drought lowering cow nutrition and yields.
This document provides an outlook on the livestock, dairy, and poultry markets. It notes that ample supplies of pork and poultry are moderating beef and cattle prices. The U.S. breeding herd inventory and farrowing intentions are down slightly, indicating slightly less U.S. pork production in 2013. Broiler and turkey meat production was also slightly lower than expected in recent months. Milk and dairy product price forecasts have firmed as a result of stronger demand and slower herd contraction.
- USDA will update its grain and meat protein balance sheets on April 10th following a March 1 grain stocks report that showed much larger corn stocks than expected
- Analysts expect USDA to revise its 2012/13 corn ending stocks estimate higher, with an average estimate of 824 million bushels
- Given this, the document discusses how USDA may adjust its estimates for corn exports, ethanol use, and feed use in the April report
The document summarizes expectations for USDA's upcoming March Hogs and Pigs report. Analysts on average expect total hogs and pigs inventories as of March 1st to be 0.7% higher than the previous year. Specifically, analysts expect the December-February pig crop to be 1.2% larger than the previous year, adding about 350,000 head to the available supply. However, slower Canadian hog imports and lower December-February slaughter are expected to partially offset gains from the larger pig crop. The report will provide updated estimates on hog and pig inventories, farrowing intentions, and litter sizes.
1) Demand indexes for major animal proteins (pork, beef, chicken, turkey) through August 2022 were mixed, with pork and chicken demand lower than the previous year and beef and turkey demand higher.
2) Pork and chicken consumption was lower than expected given only modest price increases, while beef and turkey prices rose more substantially with consumption.
3) Real disposable income per capita, a key driver of consumer demand, has grown slowly since the recession, averaging just 0.2% from 2011-2012, limiting consumer spending on meat including pork and chicken.
Feedlot operators have reduced cattle placements by almost 1.3 million head since June due to sharply higher feed costs from drought-driven increases in corn, wheat, and other feed prices. Analysts expect the USDA report on Friday will show placements down 12.7% in October from a year ago and marketings up 2.6%, reducing the cattle on feed inventory by 5.4% or 640,000 head from 2011 levels. The rapid decline in placements implies significantly fewer cattle will be available for marketing in the second quarter of 2013.
- US hay supplies remain low due to drought in 2012, down 9% from the previous year and 16% below the 5-year average. Stocks are down as much as 49% in some states.
- High grain prices have reduced hay acreage while drought has lowered hay yields to their lowest point since 1988. Hay prices have risen 9% from last year and 50% above the 5-year average.
- Though US cow inventories are at a 50-year low, down 1.3% in 2012, the ratio of cows to hay stocks is at its highest level in 20 years, indicating more competition for limited feed supplies.
Packer margins are a critical factor in livestock and meat markets as they influence packers' decisions on processing capacity and product supplies. Recent packer margins have been poor, below historical averages for beef and declining sharply for pork in recent weeks. The sustained low beef margins since August 2012 contributed to a plant closure and more closures are possible if cattle numbers do not increase as expected in late 2014 or 2015.
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on September 12th. There is focus on corn and soybean harvested acreage estimates. Analyst estimates for corn harvested acres range from 83-87.4 million acres, compared to USDA's August estimate of 87.4 million acres. Cow and bull slaughter has declined below year-ago levels since mid-August. The report will provide updated estimates for U.S. and global crop production and supply/demand.
The document summarizes analysts' estimates for the upcoming USDA Hogs and Pigs report to be released on December 28, 2012. The analysts expect a modest 0.9% reduction in market pig inventories and a 0.5% increase in hogs over 180 lbs. The breeding herd is estimated to be 99.3% of the previous year, putting it at 5.762 million head, down 41,000 from the prior year but up slightly from September 1. While the breeding herd has declined in recent years, hog slaughter and pig crops have continued increasing, showing a negative correlation between slaughter and breeding herd size.
The hog and pork markets had declined sharply in recent months but prices rebounded after the latest USDA report showed higher than expected pork inventories. While pork production has been up year-over-year recently, demand has been soft due to lower incomes and unemployment. However, pork remains relatively inexpensive compared to beef and prices could rise further as grilling season approaches.
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El documento presenta indicadores comerciales de maíz y soja en Argentina. Para maíz en la campaña 2012/13, el saldo exportable fue de 19,4 millones de toneladas, de las cuales se compraron 18,21 millones para exportación. Queda por vender 1,2 millones de toneladas y falta fijar precio para 2,2 millones. Para soja 2013/14, la producción estimada es de 53,51 millones de toneladas, de las cuales se compraron 2,08 millones y falta vender 50,6 millones y fij
El resumen proporciona información sobre la faena de bovinos, ovinos y porcinos en establecimientos habilitados a nivel nacional hasta el 31 de agosto de 2013. La faena de bovinos fue de 1,4 millones de cabezas, con un 45% correspondiente a vacas. La faena ovina fue de 783,434 cabezas, con un 47% correspondiente a corderos. La faena porcina fue de 129,004 cabezas, con un 92% correspondiente a cerdos. El documento también incluye información sobre precios de hacienda
O documento discute o preço do leite pago ao produtor no Brasil em julho de 2013. O preço médio nacional do leite aumentou 3,6% em relação a junho, impulsionado pela forte demanda. A produção de leite aumentou em junho, mas ainda está abaixo da demanda das indústrias. As expectativas são de novos aumentos de preços em agosto devido à continuidade da demanda aquecida.
O documento discute o mercado de leite no Brasil em junho de 2013. A produção de leite continuou baixa devido ao período de entressafra, enquanto a demanda permaneceu firme, fazendo com que os preços pagos aos produtores aumentassem pelo quinto mês consecutivo. Os gastos com alimentação animal também subiram em junho, influenciados pela alta nos preços de suplementos. A expectativa é de novos aumentos nos preços do leite em julho.
O preço pago ao produtor de leite em maio foi o maior em cinco anos devido à baixa oferta causada pela escassez de alimentos para as vacas e atraso nas chuvas. A diminuição da oferta elevou os preços dos derivados e levou algumas indústrias a aumentarem os preços para reduzir as vendas com medo de não atender a demanda. No entanto, casos isolados de adulteração de leite no Rio Grande do Sul não devem comprometer a imagem e importância desse alimento essencial para a saúde.
O preço pago ao produtor de leite aumentou pelo terceiro mês consecutivo em abril, impulsionado pela queda na oferta. A expectativa é de que os preços continuem subindo em maio, apesar da possível elevação da produção no Sul. Os custos de produção, no entanto, permanecem altos, exigindo planejamento dos produtores.
A produção de leite no Brasil continuou em queda em fevereiro, restringindo a oferta e aumentando a disputa pelos suprimentos entre as indústrias. Como resultado, os preços pagos aos produtores subiram 2,53% em março. A maioria dos agentes de mercado espera que os preços continuem aumentando em abril devido à oferta limitada e demanda constante.
El resumen proporciona información sobre la faena de bovinos, ovinos y porcinos en Uruguay hasta el 24 de agosto de 2013. La faena de bovinos fue un 3% superior a 2012, con 1,377,335 cabezas faenadas. La faena ovina aumentó un 19% en dólares y un 35% en volumen respecto a 2012. La faena porcina fue similar a 2012, con 125,490 cabezas.
El balance del Banco Central de la República Argentina al 07 de agosto de 2022 mostraba reservas internacionales por $204.675 millones, equivalentes a u$s37.022 millones. La deuda del gobierno nacional con el Banco Central totalizaba $158.503 millones, equivalentes a u$s28.670 millones. Los agregados monetarios M1, M2 y M3 tuvieron incrementos interanuales de entre 27,7% y 30,2%. La implementación de contratos forward ganaderos permitiría a productores ganaderos acceder a financiamiento para
El documento presenta indicadores comerciales de la soja para la campaña 2012/13. Muestra que la producción fue de 48 millones de toneladas, un aumento del 7% respecto al año anterior. Las compras totales fueron de 12,35 millones de toneladas, una disminución del 27% interanual. Aún quedan 34,8 millones de toneladas por vender y 41,9 millones de toneladas sin precio fijado.
El resumen del documento es:
1) La faena de bovinos aumentó un 18% respecto al mismo período del año anterior. La faena de ovinos aumentó un 75% y la de porcinos un 5%.
2) La faena de ovejas, corderos y cerdos representaron el principal porcentaje de la faena total de cada especie.
3) Las exportaciones totales del sector aumentaron un 6% en divisas respecto al mismo período del año anterior, mientras que las exportaciones de carne bovina y ovina aumentaron en volumen y
This document discusses the differences between federally inspected (FI) slaughter and commercial slaughter data reported by the USDA. FI slaughter occurs in plants inspected by the USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service and accounts for over 98% of cattle and 99% of hog slaughter. The USDA publishes daily and weekly FI slaughter reports that provide estimates of slaughter numbers and production. Commercial slaughter data comes from state-inspected plants and is reported monthly with more detailed information. The document provides an overview of several key USDA reports and the differences between FI and commercial data sources.
- Pork production reached record high levels in Q4 2012 despite warnings about high feed costs reducing meat supplies. However, pork production trends had shifted downward beginning in 2008 with the surge in corn prices above $4/bushel.
- Prior to 2008, all major meat production species were growing steadily each quarter. The spike in grain costs disrupted this and caused production cuts, especially after prices rose above $6-7/bushel.
- Had grain costs not increased as sharply, meat production for all species would be significantly higher now, providing billions of additional pounds of protein for consumers each quarter.
- Corn planting progress is off to a slow start in 2013, with only 2% of acres planted nationally by mid-April, compared to a 5-year average of 7% planted. Several key corn-producing states are lagging behind their normal planting paces.
- While slow planting progress is not disastrous, the entire 2013 corn crop will be closely watched given tight supplies. However, 2008 and 2009 had similarly slow starts but ended with good yields.
- Cattle and hog producers face high feed costs and low prices, suggesting significant losses for the remainder of 2013 despite some expected cost declines later in the year. Hog producers may see better prospects in 2014 if costs continue to fall as projected.
The USDA discontinued the voluntary National Carlot Pork Report and will instead track two mandatory pork reports providing pricing on an FOB Plant and FOB Omaha basis. This change was made to provide better visibility into wholesale pork pricing. While some wanted the reports published side by side for six months, continuing the voluntary report proved impractical as packers stopped reporting to it once the mandatory reports began on April 1st. The mandatory reports have consistently shown prices around 4 cents or 5% higher than the voluntary report, suggesting the voluntary report did not provide full visibility previously.
The document provides updates to global agricultural supply and demand estimates for various commodities including wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilseeds, sugar, and cotton for the 2012/13 period. Key points include:
- U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected to be 15 million bushels higher. Global wheat supplies and trade are also projected to increase.
- U.S. coarse grain ending stocks are projected to be higher led by a 125 million bushel increase in corn ending stocks. Global coarse grain production is projected to increase 1.1 million tons.
- U.S. rice domestic use is projected to decrease 5 million cwt, increasing ending stocks. Global rice production is projected at
1) The statistics for US meat exports reported monthly by the US Census Bureau and weekly by USDA through its export sales reporting system have become increasingly difficult to reconcile in recent months.
2) The monthly Census data shows a 36% decline in US beef exports to Mexico in January 2013, while the weekly data reported a 19% increase.
3) A comparison of monthly official beef export statistics and implied monthly exports from the weekly data shows they are dramatically different since 2012, possibly due to a change in commodity classification codes.
USDA issued its latest forecasts for 2013 beef, pork, and poultry production in April. The biggest revision was a reduction in the beef production forecast of 230 million pounds or 0.9% to 24.976 billion pounds total. This likely reflects expectations for reduced cattle slaughter and slower weight gains in the second half of the year due to smaller feedlot placements. Imports were forecast to be up 0.4% while exports were down 0.6%. Per capita beef consumption in 2013 is now forecast to be 55.7 pounds, down 2.9% from 2012 despite reduced availability.
- Wholesale beef prices have remained volatile as cattle prices jumped briefly around Easter but have since drifted lower. Slow demand in the first quarter of 2013 has led to excess inventories and cautious purchasing by retailers and foodservice.
- Combined US steer and heifer slaughter so far in 2013 is running slightly below year-ago levels. Choice beef cutout prices are over 7% higher than last year due to demand for certain export-dependent cuts.
- After declining last year following the LFTB controversy, prices for fat beef trimmings have surged recently but it remains unclear if high prices can be sustained after Memorial Day.
The voluntary reporting system for wholesale pork prices in the US will end on May 3rd or earlier, leaving only data from the new mandatory reporting system. While the transition has not been perfectly smooth, prices reported in the mandatory system have been higher than expected, incentivizing sellers to move to the new system. Export data for February showed good growth for US beef exports but declines for pork, with Japan still the top market for both but seeing lower volumes and values than the previous year.